Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 191555 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1055 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.UPDATE...
EXPANDED FLOOD WATCH IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA TODAY. LOWERED
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON EAST OF I-35. MADE SMALL
ADJUSTMENTS TO OTHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST REMAINS CHALLENGING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING A FEW
TORNADOES MAINLY OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL
IS INCREASING TODAY AS WELL OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

LATEST RADARS INDICATED NON-SEVERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA. A SURFACE WARM FRONT EXTENDED
FROM JUST NORTH OF HOLLIS TO ATOKA AS OF 1045 AM. HEAVY RAINFALL
WAS OCCURRING FROM ARNETT TO HOBART.

HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL SEEMS TO BE INCREASING IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA WHERE A QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES SEEM LIKELY WEST OF AN ALVA
TO WEATHERFORD TO ALTUS LINE. EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE
MORE COUNTIES IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA.

SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT THERE IS CHANCE FOR
SEVERE MAINLY IN THE 2 PM TO 10 PM TIME FRAME IN WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WHERE INSTABILITY IS HIGHEST NEAR AND
SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT. CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY. NOT
SURE HOW FAR THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD. REGARDLESS...
STRONG SHEAR AND SOME INSTABILITY SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER. A FEW
SUPERCELLS MAY FORM IN THE SPC SLIGHT RISK AREA CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND A VERY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT WOULD ALSO SUPPORT LOW TORNADO THREAT AS WELL.
STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS OR LINES IN THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS/JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 711 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...IFR CEILINGS IN FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH TEXAS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD TODAY IN ADVANCE
OF A TROUGH. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ALONG
AND NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT IN NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD LINGER IN CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL MOVE EAST TODAY
INTO TONIGHT...WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH TAKES SHAPE ALONG THE WEST
COAST. MEANWHILE...RATHER DRY...COOLER AIR...ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS...HAS FILTERED INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
OKLAHOMA. WARM...HUMID AIR REMAINS IN FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA/NORTH
TEXAS.

A SURFACE/LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD HELP FOCUS HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON. ANY PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE FRONT SHOULD
KEEP THE BOUNDARY FROM LIFTING TO FAR NORTHWARD...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

A LITTLE UNSURE ABOUT HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA PER WPC DAY1...BUT WILL ADD A FEW COUNTIES TO
CURRENT FLOOD WATCH IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.

THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN SHOULD SHIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE WESTERN TROUGH MOVES EAST AND FLATTENS. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SHIFT BETTER RAIN CHANCES
INTO TEXAS FOR THURSDAY.

ANOTHER ACTIVE PERIOD OF STORMS...SOME SEVERE WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL...WILL ARRIVE FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  62  68  53 /  60  80  60  30
HOBART OK         72  61  67  52 / 100  80  40  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  77  66  76  57 /  70  70  50  60
GAGE OK           64  52  62  47 / 100  70  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     69  58  66  50 /  40  90  50  10
DURANT OK         80  68  80  59 /  30  60  50  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR OKZ007-008-012-013-017>019-023>025-027>029.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ009-010-014-015-
     021-033-045.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ016-022-034>039-044.

TX...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083-084-087>090.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ085-086.

&&

$$

17/04/23



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