Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 141133
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
533 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGHLY VARIED CEILING AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL
LEAD TO FREQUENT DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE OBSERVATIONS AND TAFS.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH A DRYLINE THROUGH OK AND N TX
TODAY...WITH A COUPLE OF LINES OF TSRA AHEAD OF IT. IN W OK AND W
N TX...EXPECT PERIODS OF TSRA FOR 2 TO 3 HOURS AS THE MAIN BAND
PASSES THROUGH THIS MORNING. FARTHER E...THERE SHOULD BE TWO
DISTINCT BANDS OF TSRA. THE FIRST...FARTHER E...WILL BE MORE OF A
SOLID BAND...BUT WILL BE MAINLY SHRA AND WEAK TSRA. THE SECOND
BAND...ASSUMING IT FORMS...WILL BE MORE SCT...BUT THE TSRA WILL BE
STRONGER. IN THE TAFS FOR KOKC AND KOUN...THIS STRONGER BAND IS
WITHIN A TEMPO GROUP LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. AFTER
THE DRYLINE PASSES THROUGH...WINDS WILL VEER A BIT...AND SKIES
WILL GENERALLY CLEAR. LOW CLOUDS...AROUND 1500 FT AGL...ARE LIKELY
TO COVER FAR NW OK...INCLUDING KGAG AND KWWR...OVERNIGHT. THIS
SAME DECK SHOULD REACH KPNC SHORTLY AFTER 12Z TOMORROW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A STRONG NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER WESTERN NEW
MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL SHIFT SLOWLY
EAST THIS MORNING...THEN FOLLOW THE UPPER-LEVEL WAVE INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS TONIGHT.

A DRYLINE WILL ENTER SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
LATE THIS MORNING...AND WILL EXTEND ROUGHLY ALONG I-35 BY LATE
THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE...AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND THROUGH THE DAY
AND INTO THE NIGHT TONIGHT.

SHORT-RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT A BAND OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
RELATIVELY WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH TEXAS WELL AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. THEN...ANOTHER BAND OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM CLOSER TO THE DRYLINE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE
GREATEST CHANCE OF BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE...AND COULD AFFECT
THE I-35 AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST AND WEAKENING LATER THIS EVENING.

AFTER THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY TONIGHT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL ARRIVE. THIS WILL LAST INTO MIDWEEK...BEFORE MORE WET WEATHER
WILL BECOME A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE
SUBSTANTIAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK...SO IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY
WHAT WILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN...AND THIS FORECAST IS APPROXIMATELY
MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THE POSSIBILITIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  63  44  52  32 /  70  10   0   0
HOBART OK         63  41  53  31 /  70  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  44  58  35 /  60  10   0   0
GAGE OK           60  36  49  27 /  70  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     61  44  48  30 /  80  20   0   0
DURANT OK         64  49  58  37 /  80  50   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/23/23



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