Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 180828

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
328 AM CDT TUE OCT 18 2016


Brief Weather Overview:

Cooler temperatures are expected today across much of the area
with the exception being across southern Oklahoma and portions of
western north Texas. For these locations, well above normal
temperatures will continue. No rain is expected until Wednesday
afternoon and the greatest chances will be confined to the
southeast portion of the area. Even cooler temperatures will
arrive Thursday and persist into Friday before another warming
trend this weekend.

Potential Weather Hazards:

1.) Lightning from storms Wednesday afternoon and evening across
the southeast portion of the area. Severe thunderstorms are
unlikely, although a brief strong to severe thunderstorm will be
possible across this area.

2.) We`ll need to watch trends on temperatures Thursday night and
early Friday morning. Although not very likely as it appears now,
a few locations could possibly be cold enough for patchy frost,
especially across north-central Oklahoma.

Meteorological Analysis:

Surface analysis early this morning shows a cold front moving
through Oklahoma forced south by low amplitude quick moving
northern plains shortwave trough. Consensus of short term model
guidance shows decreasing post frontal pressure falls today and a
slowing of the front`s southeastward progress. The front will
become increasingly diffuse and linger over the southeast portion
of the area into Wednesday.

Quasi-zonal mid-upper flow pattern is seen in upper air analysis/model
initializations across the CONUS this morning leading to largely
uneventful weather. Model guidance suggests gradual amplification
of the pattern with the most notable wave reaching the central
Rockies by Wednesday morning. This shortwave trough will become
increasingly amplified and large scale ascent will begin
overspreading the area as early as tonight. Low level response
will be subtle but may be enough for weak moisture advection atop
residual boundary and some stratus across especially the eastern
portion of the area by Wednesday morning. Any precipitation in the
form of elevated convection should be confined to eastern Oklahoma
if it occurs at all.

A more promising scenario for precipitation will be diurnally
driven convection near residual convergence boundary across mainly
the southeast portion of the area Wednesday afternoon. At least
weak surface based instability will be present, but deep layer
shear is weak and well organized/persistent thunderstorms are not
expected. Any severe thunderstorms that develop will be brief and
marginal from loosely organized storms.

A cold front will move through Wednesday night bringing cooler
temperatures slightly below mid-October normals for Thursday. As
surface high pressure moves east across the area Thursday night, a
few locations may fall to temperatures below what most guidance
currently indicates. This seems to be an optimal scenario for
radiative cooling and a target of opportunity to improve upon a
model consensus approach, so we have lowered low temperatures to
the low end of guidance.

Medium range consensus is for anomalous 500 mb heights from a
building mean ridge this weekend bringing above normal
temperatures once again. We adjusted to be slightly higher than
the blend, and further upward adjustment may be necessary in
subsequent forecasts.



Oklahoma City OK  79  57  81  52 /   0   0  10  20
Hobart OK         80  54  81  50 /   0   0  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  85  61  86  56 /   0   0  20  30
Gage OK           77  47  75  41 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     79  56  77  48 /   0  10  10  10
Durant OK         91  71  87  58 /   0   0  30  60


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