Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 140358 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
958 PM CST SAT DEC 13 2014

.UPDATE...
FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
ALTHOUGH WITH SOME WIND TONIGHT VISIBILITIES MAY NOT DROP AS LOW
AS THE PAST FEW DAYS EXCEPT FOR MAYBE SE PORTIONS OF FA WHERE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. STILL LOOKS LIKE RAIN COULD ALSO MOVE INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA EARLY SUNDAY SO DID NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO POPS THRU 12Z. OVERALL THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD
WITH JUST A MINOR TWEAK IN SKY COVER/HOURLY GRIDS TO SHOW CURRENT
TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 PM CST SAT DEC 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS...ESPECIALLY IN REGARDS TO IFR
AND LOWER CONDITIONS.

LIFR CONDITIONS NEAR KPNC-KADH WILL LIKELY SPREAD NORTHWEST TO
INCLUDE KOKC AND KOUN AS EARLY AS 01Z...BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL
AFTER 06Z. ADDITIONAL IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN OKLAHOMA 04-12Z...THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
EXACT TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF DEVELOPMENT. BELIEVE CONDITIONS WILL
STAY ABOVE AIRPORT MINIMUMS.

A BAND OF -TSRA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST TO EAST...ARRIVING TO
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AROUND 12Z...THEN EAST OF KOKC...KOUN...AND KPNC
BY 22Z. HAVE PREVAILING GROUPS TO HANDLE THIS. RAPID IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER -TSRA.

WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY AFTER 12Z. GUSTS
OVER 30 KT ARE LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER 12Z. NON
CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE AT NEARLY ANY SITE
BEFORE 18Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CST SAT DEC 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS AFTERNOON REMAIN THE CHANCES
FOR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY.

ONCE AGAIN...WE FIND OURSELVES TRAPPED BENEATH A VEIL OF LOW
CLOUDS TODAY. A FEW AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER...AND
INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA HAVE SEEN ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO
RECEIVE SOME SUNSHINE...BUT CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD IN ONCE
AGAIN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WHILE FOG LOOKS LIKELY AGAIN
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING...BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
TONIGHT. STILL...SOME AREAS MAY SEE VISIBILITIES FALL TO A MILE OR
LESS...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY PASSING DRIZZLE.

SO NOW TO THE INTERESTING STUFF...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TOMORROW.
AT THIS TIME...THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS TOWARD A LOW
CAPE/HIGH SHEAR EVENT. LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL BE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...BUT INSTABILITY WILL
BE LACKING. WHILE THE NAM PAINTS UP TO 1200 TO 1500 J/KG OF
CAPE...SOMEWHERE IN THE 9OTH PLUS PERCENTILE OF OBSERVATIONS FOR
MID DECEMBER...IT APPEARS TO BE A CONSIDERABLE OUTLIER. THE MORE
REASONABLE GFS/EURO SOLUTIONS DEPICT INSTABILITY IN THE 400-600
J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION TO INSTABILITY PROBLEMS...ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER MAY LIMIT DESTABILIZATION AND MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR STORMS
TO BECOME SURFACE BASED. EVEN WITH THESE LIMITATIONS...AT LEAST
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL APPEARS PROBABLE. STORMS
WILL DEVELOP EARLY IN THE DAY...AND A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS LOOK TO FORM IN THE 10 AM TO NOON TIMEFRAME. STORMS SHOULD
REACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BETWEEN NOON AND 3 PM.
ANY STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE AND WIND
GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH. STORMS SHOULD MOVE WELL EAST OF THE REGION
BY EARLY EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THIS LINE OF STORMS...ANOTHER
AREA TO WATCH WILL BE NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...NEAR THE CENTER OF
THE COLD CORE UPPER LOW. ASSUMING ADEQUATE DESTABILIZATION...A FEW
LOW TOPPED STORMS MAY FORM IN THIS REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOMORROW NIGHT..DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER LOOK TO
PREVAIL HEADING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. BY MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK...A SERIES OF UPPER STORM SYSTEMS LOOK TO BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION
TO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER
LOW ON IF AND WHEN WINTRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR...SO IT WILL BE
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS WE MOVE INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  61  44  52 /  10  90   0   0
HOBART OK         54  64  40  53 /  10  70   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  55  68  43  58 /  10  70   0   0
GAGE OK           52  60  35  48 /  30  60  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     56  59  43  50 /  10  90  20  10
DURANT OK         53  63  48  58 /  10 100  50   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17



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