Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 170049
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
749 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

...UPDATE...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Three intense supercells continue moving east-northeast across
western Oklahoma. Low levels continue to gradually stabilize with
growing CIN. As MLCIN increases, low-level shear will continue to
strengthen so the tornado threat will continue for at least a
couple more hours. A local extension of the Tornado Watch to
include Blaine and Caddo will be transmitted shortly.

Large scale forcing for ascent with approaching shortwave trough
is evident in the three water vapor channels from GOES-R. In
response, convection should increase markedly from western north
Texas southward into the Permian Basin. These storms should grow
upscale and move through much of the area overnight with at least
marginally severe wind/hail potential.

Evolution of ongoing supercells to the north is a little unclear
at the moment. Although the tornado threat should lessen as the
boundary layer stabilizes, intense mesoscyclones may persist
resulting in a significant hail and secondary wind threat until
storm intensity decreases and/or consolidation occurs.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 616 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017/

AVIATION...
Isolated severe storms entering western Oklahoma may pass near
western TAF sites. Later tonight, after 3z, a line of storms is
expected to form and march eastward through the area, eventually
affecting most TAF sites. Ceilings will continue to bounce between
MVFR and VFR into the evening before clearing out with the
approaching convection. Winds will remain southerly and gusty.

Day

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 216 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017/

DISCUSSION...
We are getting the package out early as things will start getting
busy before too long. As as been discussed for days, a severe
weather event is setting up for this evening, and storms have
already formed on the dryline in the Texas panhandle. Expected
isolated to widely scattered storms along the dryline this evening
moving into western sections of the area. Supercells will be
likely. The airmass will be conducive to tornado potential as
well, especially in the far west. High-resolution models weaken
these storms by mid-late evening as they move northeast, but am
somewhat skeptical how fast these initial storms will diminish.
Regardless, also expect a second wave of storms to form out west
in the mid-late evening. This wave of storms will likely be more
widespread and perhaps become a linear system as they spread east
and northeast. Severe weather will continue to be possible with
these storms overnight.

We will see a break in the thunderstorm activity on Wednesday as
the initial wave moves northeast of the area. But alas, this
respite will be short-lived as the next longwave trough approaches
the area. Severe storms will again be possible Thursday and
Friday. The cold front associated with this system moves through
the area overnight Friday night and Saturday morning with cooler
weather moving in. But the we will continue to have broad
troughing in the Plains, so precipitation chances will persist
into next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  80  63  83  63 /  10  70  10  10
Hobart OK         81  59  86  58 /  30  70   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  84  63  89  64 /  20  70   0   0
Gage OK           82  57  82  55 /  50  50   0   0
Ponca City OK     81  64  83  61 /  20  60  20   0
Durant OK         83  68  86  70 /  10  50  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

30/10



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