Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 240430
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1030 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT
ALL SITES BY 08Z.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 150 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO
THE NW BUT REMAINING FAIRLY LIGHT. WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S. THE COLDEST AREA IN THE FA
WILL LIKELY BE IN PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL OK WHERE LINGERING SNOW WILL
AFFECT THE WARM UP. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY BUT
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY.
THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW
A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
WHICH WILL BRING SOME COOLER AIR TO THE REGION KNOCKING TEMPERATURES
BACK DOWN INTO THE 40S AND 50S BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MODELS DIFFER TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
ECMWF IS DRY DURING THIS TIME WITH THE GFS A LITTLE DRIER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS BUT STILL SHOW PRECIP. WITH THE TREND TOWARDS DRIER
WEATHER HAVE REDUCED POPS BUT LEFT SOME PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE FA FOR NOW.

WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS... FIRE WEATHER MAY
BE THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS SPEEDS ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW AND HUMIDITIES TO REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS BUT WILDFIRE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED JUST HOW MUCH IS THE QUESTION... ESPECIALLY IF CURRENT
DEWPOINTS ARE TOO HIGH AND/OR WIND SPEEDS ARE TOO LOW. THE WORST DAY
FOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR MONDAY. WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  58  37  62 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         27  56  33  62 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  30  58  35  64 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           24  55  32  61 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     28  59  37  60 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         32  58  38  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/17/17


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