Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 150324

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1024 PM CDT FRI OCT 14 2016

Only minor updates, mainly to dewpoints, temperatures/mins and
clouds tonight.


There are really mixed signals on what to expect with cloud cover
tonight. NAM/GFS MOS suggest cloudy skies, while HRRR and current
trends suggest quite a bit of clearing except in the southeast
where clouds increase again. Have kind of split the difference as
expect some cloud redevelopment with the ongoing moisture
advection, but have kept more of a gradient with highest cloud
cover northeast and lowest southwest. Temperatures at a few
locations in west central Oklahoma have already dropped to the
forecast mins, so adjusted min temperatures down a degree or two
in some areas. But there will be a floor to how far temperatures
drop with the current dewpoints.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 632 PM CDT FRI OCT 14 2016/

Aviation discussion for the 00 UTC TAFs is below.

For the most part, VFR conditions are expected.

MVFR conditions are most likely across western and northwestern
Oklahoma near KCSM, KWWR, and KGAG. Confidence is moderate that
these conditions will occur. Not sure exactly when the MVFR
conditions will begin and/or end at these sites.

There is a chance for patchy MVFR/IFR conditions with BR away from
KCSM, KWWR, and KGAG as well nearly anytime before 19 UTC, but
did not mention due to low confidence of occurrence.

Non convective low level wind shear may occur at all sites 02-16
UTC but did not mention due to low confidence of occurrence.

South to southwesterly surface winds will increase and become
gusty at all sites 13-17 UTC.

Have high confidence all locations will be VFR after 19 UTC.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CDT FRI OCT 14 2016/

Primary forecast focus is placed on the unseasonably warm
temperatures this weekend into early next week, along with
increasing fire weather concerns in west and northwestern Oklahoma.

Currently, noticable on water vapor, our 500mb low amplitude short
wave from yesterday continues to make its exit eastward across the
Ozark Plateau. In its wake, low level stratus clouds continue to
linger across portions of the southern plains. Clearing in the far
northwest has resulted in a diurnal response, with temperatures
pushing the upper 70s to 80. Elsewhere, cloud cover will keep temps
low, but subtle breaks in the deck may result in a quick few degree
burst, but mostly, afternoon highs will top out in the mid 70s.

Tonight into tomorrow: already apparent across the western
Panhandles into eastern New Mexico, south and southwesterly flow
will increase as a stout ridge axis sets up from the Trans Pecos
into the central plains. This decent fetch of boundary layer
downslope flow will result in a warming of the boundary layer. Short
range guidance remains in decent agreement through the weekend, with
afternoon 850mb temperatures approaching 20 to 25 C. If these
temperatures are realized, they will place well above the 90th
percentile for OUN off the SPC sounding climatology. This period of
warmth will extend from the weekend through Monday. Highs tomorrow
will be in the mid 80s across much of the region, to around 90 in
western Oklahoma and western north Texas. Record highs are possible
in some locations across western Oklahoma on Sunday where highs will
push into the lower 90s. Monday will be the warmest day, as a
surface front approaches off the western high plains, several
records may be reached, as highs push into the upper 80s in central
Oklahoma to the low to mid 90s in western Oklahoma and western north

Temperatures will remain unseasonably warm, but cooler, on Tuesday,
as the surface trough pushes southward, nearly stalling in southern
Oklahoma by the afternoon. Tuesday into Wednesday, long range
guidance begins to diverge significantly. The GFS remains almost
excessively bullish compared to the ECMWF and GEM with the
progression of a deepening 500mb trough over the Intermountain West.
With little confidence from the GFS ensemble, will continue to lean
toward the ECMWF`s nearly dry solution for Thursday, with slight
chances for showers on Wednesday.


A shift in the 500mb ridge to the east and the approach of a
deepening lee trough and surface front will result in elevated
fire weather concerns early next week. Strong southwesterly flow
and unseasonably warm temperatures will result in critical
relative humidities Monday afternoon. Additionally, continued
drying of vegetation/fuels will occur, especially over
northwestern and western Oklahoma.



Oklahoma City OK  65  84  66  87 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         65  85  64  89 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  67  87  66  90 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           65  91  58  94 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     66  84  67  90 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         66  85  67  88 /   0   0   0   0


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