Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 182045
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
345 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FORMED THIS AFTERNOON NEAR A COLD FRONT OVER
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MODEST
INSTABILITY HAS KEPT MOST STORMS BELOW SEVERE LEVELS...ALTHOUGH A
FEW HAVE MANAGED TO PRODUCE MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER. AS DAYTIME
HEATING DIMINISHES TOWARD SUNSET...THESE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE.

LATER TONIGHT...ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
VEERS...AND IS FORCED TO CLIMB OVER THE STALLED FRONT THAT WILL BE
IN NORTH TEXAS. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW MORNING OVER
WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...THEN SPREAD NORTHEAST DURING
THE DAY. RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES...AND WE HAVE ELECTED TO
ADD A FLOOD ADVISORY TO THE FORECAST FOR TOMORROW...WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THE VARIOUS FORECAST
MODELS ARE AMAZINGLY DISPARATE IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...BUT THE BEST CONSENSUS APPEARS TO PLACE THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM OUR TEXAS COUNTIES NORTHEAST TO
THE PONCA CITY/ENID AREA. GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...IT
WILL NOT TAKE ALL THAT MUCH RAIN TO CAUSE NEW FLOODING.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...RAIN WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED
TO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...AND COOLER AIR WILL HAVE
ARRIVED IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL BE THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT
BREAK FROM RAIN IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS WEEK.

AN UPPER-LEVEL WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND VARIOUS SMALLER DISTURBANCES WILL GENERATE
PERIODS OF RAIN/STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AGAIN...HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE A POSSIBILITY...AND SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE
OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOKS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THAT
LAST TWO WEEKS...ALTHOUGH THIS ONE APPEARS TO BE LESS WELL
ORGANIZED. IN ANY CASE...RAIN IS LIKELY OVER AT LEAST SOME PART OF
OUR FORECAST AREA FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

AS THE MAIN WAVE MOVES OFF ON SUNDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH...BUT NOT GO COMPLETELY AWAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  62  73  62  72 /  10  60  80  60
HOBART OK         61  72  60  72 /  30  70  80  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  65  77  66  78 /  30  70  70  50
GAGE OK           54  64  51  66 /  40  80  70  20
PONCA CITY OK     56  69  57  69 /   0  30  90  50
DURANT OK         65  80  68  78 /  20  40  60  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     OKZ007-008-012-013-016>019-022>025-027>029-034-035-038-039-
     044.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     OKZ033.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     OKZ036-037.

TX...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     TXZ083-084-087>089.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     TXZ085-086.

&&

$$

17/23



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