Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 230806
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
306 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017

WV imagery this morning showing an elongated upper level positive
tilt trof stretching from eastern Canada all the way to the
southwestern CONUS with embedded circulations...one over the upper
Midwest and the other over Quebec. Meanwhile...an upstream ridge
oriented SW-NE situated from the CA coastline to central Canada.

For today...the upper level Midwest low/vort max will migrate
southward and push into the mid MS valley later this afternoon. And
with several minor impulses riding down the backside of the
system...this may be enough to pop off some showers over the CWA
this afternoon. RAP13 not showing any instability to speak of...and
expect any activity to be isolated in nature.

Dry conditions with a noticeable warming trend is on tap as the
western CONUS ridge builds into the central Plains Wednesday through
Friday.

The chance for elevated convection will increase late Friday
night when a cold front...associated with shortwave energy
traversing the U.S./Canadian border...sweeps into the region. Both
the NAM/GFS hint moisture advection leading up to the fropa will be
generous with PWS values of 1.5" or so reaching into the southern
CWA. Given this...a few locations south of the I-80 corridor may see
generous accumulations leading up to sunrise.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017

With the medium range models in agreement showing no significant
thermal advection occurring throughout the extended periods...the
going temp forecast with mid 70s/low 50s looks reasonable for
now.

Precip chances continue Thursday night through Saturday afternoon as
in response to series of embedded impulses running down the backside
of deepening upper low dropping out of south-central Canada into the
lower 48.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through 15z with patchy
showers south of KLNK through 09Z. Closed upper low over northern
Minnesota at the start of the period will drop south into western
Iowa through 00Z then into northern Missouri by 06Z. More
scattered showers are expected to develop after 18Z as instability
increases beneath the cold air aloft with surface heating. VFR
conditions are still expected to prevail with FL035-FL045 BKN-OVC
ceilings.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...Fobert



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