Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KOAX 012304
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
604 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED MID AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE PLAINS. WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW A NUMBER
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE NOTED.THE FIRST WAS OVER ERN SD INTO
CNTRL NEB WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA.
THE 20Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED LOW PRESSURE OVER
CNTRL KS ASSOCIATED THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS OVER ERN SD/NEB
AT 12Z. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTNDD NWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH CNTRL
NEB INTO CNTRL SD.

SHORT TERM MODELS DO INDICATE SOME INCREASE IN INSTABILITY ALONG
THE INVERTED TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FROM CNTRL SD INTO CNTRL NEB
WHERE AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE IS EXPECTED. FORCING FOR CI
IS LIMITED THOUGH WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DROPPING INTO KS/MO THIS AFTERNOON. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP IN THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING IN CASE SOMETHING DOES
GET GOING ALONG THE TROUGH AND SLIDES S/SEWD INTO THE NW CWA.
MODELS DO INDC THAT EFFECTIVE SHEAR INCREASES THIS EVENING...SO
DESPITE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...A STRONG STORM WOULD BE
POSSIBLE IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP. OTHERWISE WE WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME CONVECTION INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN SD ASSOCIATED WITH
FORCING FROM THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THIS MAY SLIDE INTO NE
NEB TOWARD DAY BREAK. THIS WAVE LOOKS TO TRACK SEWD THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE DAY ON THU AND WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP
SOME SCT ACTIVITY GOING THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT
HIGHS FOR A GOOD PART OF THE AREA WITH SOME PRECIP AND A GOOD DEAL
OF CLOUDS AROUND. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FORCING
SHOULD EXIT THE REGION ON THU NIGHT WITH POPS DECREASING DURING
THE EVENING.

THE PATTERN REMAINS MESSY INTO THE DAY ON FRI WITH WEAK TROUGHING
OVER THE AREA. FORCING FOR ASCENT IS LIMITED BUT WITH COOL MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES OVERHEAD...AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WE
MAY SEE SOME POP-UP AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRI. WE WILL KEEP THE 4TH OF JULY DRY ATTM BUT WITH THE SAME
GENERALLY PATTERN IN PLACE WE CAN`T COMPLETELY RUN OUT AN ISO
SHOWER...BUT MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER ON SAT AND
THUS INSTABILITY IS A BIT WEAKER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM FOR THE AREA LOOKS TO
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND DRIVES A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND INTO THE FA ON SUN NIGHT. WE
SHOULD SEE A DRY DAY ON SUN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY.
THE FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MON WITH A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD DROP SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY NEXT
TUE WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 601 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS NEAR FL040 ARE FORECAST TO HANG AROUND
EASTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EVENING. LOWERING OF CIGS TO MVFR IS
LIKELY AFTER 08Z...AND KLNK AND KOFK WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF
IFR CIGS. WHILE A SHOWER OR STORM COULD POP UP DURING THE
EVENING...IT APPEARS STORMS WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. KOFK HAS A CHANCE TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 12Z AND
18Z AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DERGAN


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.