Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 030840
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
340 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. ONE WEAK DISTURBANCE WITHIN THIS FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER MOISTURE IS LACKING DUE TO OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION.  MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIP IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.

A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...AS A SURFACE LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE AIDED BY WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE...AS WELL AS AMPLE 850-700MB
MOISTURE.

THERE REMAINS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS BOTH TODAY AND
TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  BY MIDWEEK AROUND 2500 J/KG INSTABILITY WILL
BE IN PLACE IN ADDITION TO AMPLE MOISTURE AND ABOUT 30 TO 40KTS OF
SHEAR. ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP SURFACE TEMPERATURES
RELATIVELY LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND COULD INHIBIT
INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.  A FEW WEAK WAVES WILL CONTINUE
TO RIDE ALONG THE RIDGE BRINGING SHOWER CHANCES TO THE AREA. HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER...IN THE LOWER 80S. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO INHIBIT INSTABILITY AND REDUCE SEVERE CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TSRA CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME...
AND HAVE KEPT FORECASTS VFR. WILL NEED TO ADJUST IF TIMING OR
LOCATION OF POSSIBLE STORMS BECOMES MORE CLEAR. DID MENTION SOME
SHRA AT KOFK BETWEEN 14Z AND 17Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KG
LONG TERM...KG
AVIATION...MILLER


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