000
FXUS63 KOAX 092021
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
321 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

MODELS IN RELATIVELY DECENT AGREEMENT LARGE SCALE FLOW OVER MOST OF
THE CONUS WILL BE NEAR ZONAL WHILE A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF RUSHES
ACROSS CANADA. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND THEN...PATTERN IS PROGGED TO
BEGIN AMPLIFYING WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER
THE WRN CONUS BY SAT AFTN. MEANWHILE...GULF MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
BEGIN IN EARNEST LATER TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST AND
ALLOWS MOISTURE TO SLIDE UP ALONG THE WRN HIGH PLAINS. APPEARS THAT
MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE THEN THRU THE FCST PD.

CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC WAS SHOWING CLUSTER OF TSTMS FROM S-CNTRL SD
INTO N-CNTRL NEB MOVING SE WITHIN POCKET OF MID LYR ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTING AREA OF CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND EXPAND INTO THE WRN CWA THEN EARLY
THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY THE REST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...MAIN ISSUE IS PINNING DOWN PLACEMENT/TIMING THUNDER POPS
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. HOWEVER...REASONABLE ASSUME ON THUR NIGHT/FRI
NIGHT...LLVL JET AND FAVORABLE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING/THETA-E CONVG
WITHIN BNDRY LYR WILL HELP INDUCE NOCTURNAL TSTM ACTIVITY. AS FOR
SVR TSTMS...NAM IS ADVERTISING POSSIBLE SVR DEVELOPMENT THUR NIGHT
OVER N-CNTRL NEB WITH MUCAPES 2000-2500 J/KG AND ADEQUATE VERTICAL
SHEAR. ALL THIS IN PART TO LEESIDE SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT THERMAL
BNDRY EXTENDING FROM ABOUT NERN CO TO NERN SD. GFS INSTABILITY/SHEAR
AT THAT TIME THOUGH IS SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER.
NEVERTHELESS...SITUATION BEARS WATCHING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT BTWN CMC/ECM/GFS EARLY ON THAT AMPLIFICATION
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS UPPER
TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS AND UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS. AT
THIS POINT DETERMINISTIC ECM/GFS AS WELL AS ECMENS/CMCENS ALL
INDICATE LARGE SCALE FLOW WILL BECOME STAGNANT AND ALLOW A RATHER
COOL AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF THE SEASON TO EXPAND SWD INTO THE
REGION DAY 6 AND 7. EXPECT THEN A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CNTRL PLAINS
WILL SEE WELL BELOW NORMAL AFTN TEMPS TUES AND WED. GOING POPS IN
THE EXT PDS LOOK GOOD FOR NOW SO NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONE AREA THAT MAY HAVE MVFR CEILINGS IS
THE KLNK AREA SHRA AND TSRA IS POSSIBLE IN KLNK AFTER 00Z AND
WOULD BE IN THE STRONGER CELLS. SMOKE PLUME FROM FIRES IN CANADA
ARE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY IN NEBRASKA
AND IOWA. ASIDE FROM SLIGHTLY HAZY SKY CONDITIONS...THIS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON VISIBILITIES.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...SMITH