000
FXUS63 KOAX 120846
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
346 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

VW IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING POS TILT TROF EXTENDING FROM GREAT
LAKES REGION TO CNTRL PLAINS MAKING A VERY GRADUAL EXIT TO THE EAST.
MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM RIDGE WAS SITUATED OVER THE WRN CONUS.

DESPITE MODEL AGREEMENT LARGE SCALE FLOW WILL BE PROGRESSIVE THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH SEVERAL PAC NW VORTS MOVING THRU THE CNTRL
PLAINS...NO ACTIVE WEATHER ANTICIPATED HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.
INCREASING THKNS/SLY WINDS THOUGH WILL TRANSLATE TO A GENEROUS WARM
UP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. EXCEPT FOR A FEW LOCATIONS...MAX TEMPS PER
MET/MAV ON THURSDAY ARE SIMILAR ADVERTISING LOW/MID 60S. WEAK COLD
PUSH ON FRIDAY WILL COOL THINGS DOWN JUST A BIT...AND AGAIN MET/MAV
IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

CONFIDENCE SOMEWHAT DIMINISHED AFTER SEEING EVOLVING DIFFERENCES
BTWN THE LATEST GFS AND ECM...THUS ONLY MINOR TWEAKS PLANNED.
POSSIBLE PCPN SAT NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING DPVA ALONG NARROW
VORT CHANNEL MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH POS TILT TROF.
ECM/GFS/CMC ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT DEPICTING WHERE MID LYR
AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT AHEAD OF BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE FOCUSED
MAKING POP PLACEMENT RATHER PROBLEMATIC. AM CONTENT AT THIS POINT TO
JUST BLANKET SMALL POPS OVER ENTIRE CWA. SAME SITUATION ON TUESDAY
WHEN THE ECM BRINGS A COLD FRONT THRU WITH PCPN WHILE THE GFS ON THE
OTHER HAND IS DRY. THEREFORE WILL AGAIN GO WITH SMALL TOKEN POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

PATCH OF CLOUDS AROUND 3000 FEET NEAR KOFK AT 05Z WILL SLIDE TO
THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND COULD BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AT
KLNK. MVFR CEILINGS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KOMA WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
ANOTHER POCKET OF MOISTURE MOVES SOUTH.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...MILLER