000
FXUS63 KOAX 031130
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
530 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

WV IMAGERY REVEALING AN ELONGATED UPPER TROF EXTENDING FROM CNTRL
CANADA TO JUST OFF THE SRN CA COASTLINE WITH NRN SEGMENT SHORTWAVE
TROF OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND CLOSED SRN CIRCULATION OVER SRN CA. AT
THE SFC...LEADING EDGE OF INBOUND COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING
ACROSS ERN ND...SW SD...NERN WY WITH REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC ALREADY
SHOWING AREA OF SNOW JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER SD AND THE NEB
PANH WITHIN AREA OF STOUT 295K UPGLIDE.

MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE WHERE/WHEN PCPN TYPE CHANGE WILL OCCUR
AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO THE CWA THIS MORNING.

GIVEN DRY LOW LYR PER OAX SOUNDING...INITIAL PCPN ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER THE SRN CWA UNTIL
INFLUX OF BNDRY LYR MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH TO SATURATE THE
COLUMN OUT FOR RA OR FZRA TO COMMENCE. MEANWHILE TO THE
NORTH...GFSLAMP/HRRR PUT THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE CWA SOMETIME
BTWN 13Z-14Z THIS MORNING. WX TYPE ALGORITHM IS SHOWING -S/FZRA
INITIALLY BEFORE CHANGE TO -S/FZRA MIX SHORTLY AFTER 12Z...THEN ALL
SNOW BTWN 15Z-18Z. THERE WILL ONLY BE A BRIEF PERIOD FOR ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TO OCCUR AND AT THIS POINT BELIEVE MOST OF THE NRN CWA
WILL SEE LESS THAN AN INCH. GIVEN ALL THIS...LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL/ONLY MINOR ROADWAY ICING...NO HEADLINES PLANNED AT THIS
TIME. ALSO...SFC WINDS WILL BE GUSTY BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO
CONSIDER ISSUING HEADLINE FOR MEETING ADV CRITERIA.

HOWEVER...WILL EMPHASIZE THE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THOUGH IN THE
HWO.

OTHERWISE DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE NEAR TERM PDS WITH A WARMING
TREND BEGINNING IN EARNEST ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES NEED IN THE EXTENDED PDS AS BOTH MEX/ECMMOS PROG
DRY WX WITH A NICE TEMP REBOUND NEXT WEEKEND AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
ALL THE INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

MESSY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE WITH
IFR CONDITIONS...AND EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS AT KLNK. COLD FRONT
ARRIVES AND SWITCHES WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND SUBSTANTIALLY
INCREASE TO 20 TO 35 KNOTS AT KOFK BY 14Z...KLNK BY 15Z AND KOMA
BY 16Z. VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP BY 19Z AT KOFK AND 21-21Z AT
KLNK/KOMA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...DEWALD