000
FXUS63 KOAX 211131
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
631 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Stalled surface boundary was located from southeast Iowa through north
central Missouri into northeast Kansas at 07Z with scattered
convection in its vicinity from southeast Iowa into north central
Missouri. This boundary lifts north this morning as a warm front
into southeast Nebraska and southern Iowa then gradually washes
out by afternoon with the summer-like conditions spreading across
eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa during the afternoon on gusty
south winds. Main question for this morning will concern
potential for convection as the warm unstable air spreads north.
Short term CAM models show most of the convection remaining south
and east of the area this morning and forecast soundings show a
pretty good cap developing by the afternoon. Since some cells
already showing on radar in far southeast corner will place
slight PoPs across southern parts of the area early this morning and
adjust if needed later this morning.

Latest model runs continue trend of slowing the approach of the
cold front into the area for the weekend. PoPs enter the forecast
for northwest parts of the area Friday night then linger over that
area through Saturday night before finally entering southeast
Nebraska and southwest Iowa Sunday. This will keep much of the
area hot and dry with the unseasonable heat and humidity around
for most of the weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Relief from the heat and humidity arrives by Monday as the deep
upper trough over the western CONUS begins to overcome the
blocking high in the east by lifting the northern segment of the
trough into the upper midwest and eastern Canada through
Wednesday. Best rain chances for the area will be Sunday night
into Monday night as the surface cold front moves through the
region. A period of cooler and drier weather follows behind the
front for Tuesday and Wednesday as ridging develops over the west
coast area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

VFR conditions are forecast through Friday morning. Areas of VFR
cigs near FL050 will persist through 16z or so, then mainly high
clouds are expected thereafter. South winds should kick up before
18Z, and average 15 to 25kt through end of TAF period. Low level
wind shear is also expected at all eastern Nebraska TAF sites
after 04Z when low level jet increases to near 45kt at FL020 from
the south-southwest.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fobert
LONG TERM...Fobert
AVIATION...Dergan