Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42

000
FXUS63 KOAX 182031
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
331 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very high fire danger over northeast Nebraska this afternoon,
  and from northeast Nebraska into southwest Iowa Tuesday
  afternoon.

- Temperatures warm back into the 60s tomorrow before trending
  cooler again.

- A more active weather pattern develops later this week with
  precipitation chances from Thursday into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Short Range (Monday-Wednesday)

High temperatures will feel quite chilly today as they peak in the
40s. Very high fire danger continues today in northeast Nebraska
where relative humidity values are expected to reach a minimum value
of 15 to 20 percent. Winds have overperformed guidance today with
northwesterly gusts up to 25 mph in northeast Nebraska early
this afternoon. Surface high pressure to our south will slide
off to the east today, brining southwesterly return flow this
evening and an improvement in overnight lows to the 30s.

Tuesday will likely be the warmest day of the week with high
temperatures in the 60s. Plenty of sunshine will compliment these
temperatures but breezy conditions will bring winds of 15 to 20 mph
with gusts up to 25 mph. Very high fire danger will be present from
northeast Nebraska into southwest Iowa. Relative humidity will be
slightly improved tomorrow (minimum values of 25 to 30 percent)
while winds remain strong. A surface trough moving across the
Dakotas will bring a cold front through the area Tuesday evening,
dropping Wednesday high temperatures back in the 40s. This cooler
temperature trend will continue into the weekend.

Long Range (Thursday-Sunday)

The latter half of the week will see a more active weather pattern.
On Thursday, a shortwave disturbance will move across the area and
spin up a surface low that is expected to track across the
NE/SD border. This will bring a chance of light precipitation
Thursday night into Friday morning (PoPs 25 to 40 percent).
Light rain with snow possible behind an associated cold front
will be the likely precipitation type. Northeast NE will have
the greatest chance of seeing snowflakes, with little to no
accumulation expected.

This weekend into the start of next week will bring a chance for
more measurable precipitation as a broad upper-level trough moves
into the western CONUS. Long range model guidance becomes quite
uncertain at this time with a range of solutions on how this
will evolve. Surface cyclogenesis is expected to occur this
weekend in eastern CO/western KS before the low proceeds
northeast towards the Great Lakes region.

High temperatures this weekend look to stay in the 40s and low 50s.
In general, the ECMWF ensemble is much warmer than the GEFS with
this event. There is also considerable spread in temperatures
between ECMWF ensemble members with a 10 to 15 degrees
discrepancy between the 25th and 75th percentile from Saturday
through Monday.

Model variability is present in both the precipitation timing and
precipitation type of this system. The highest PoPs are currently in
place for Sunday (60-80 percent) with smaller values present on both
Saturday evening and Monday. Rain and thunderstorm potential
appears most likely on Saturday and Sunday while snow appears
more likely on Monday. A close eye will have to be kept on this
system as it evolves, especially for those with outdoor or
travel plans coming up.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1116 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period.
Northwesterly winds of 12-16 kts with gusts up to 19-24 kts will
continue throughout the afternoon as winds gradually shift to
southwesterly. Winds are expected to remain under 12 kts
overnight at KOMA and KOFK. LLWS between 40 and 45 kts will
work its way into all terminals around 00z, persisting for much
of the night. Winds will gradually rotate back to northwesterly
through the early morning before increasing to speeds above 12
kts after sunrise tomorrow.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...Wood


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.