000
FXUS63 KOAX 122305
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
605 PM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE PERIOD AS NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES AS CU FIELD DISSIPATES WITH SUNSET...ALTHOUGH WESTERN
IOWA COULD BE ON THE EDGE OF A DENSER SHIELD OF LOWER CLOUDS TO
THE EAST. NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUES
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE A GENEROUS WARMUP ON THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. WITH AMPLE MIXING... DEWPOINTS SHOULD
MIX DOWN AGAIN ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA...WHICH DROPS HUMIDITY
VALUES INTO THE LOWER 20S ONCE AGAIN...BUT NOT LOW ENOUGH FOR ANY
FIRE DANGER HEADLINES...ALTHOUGH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY
OF HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER. THE COLD FRONT DOES MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AND SWITCHES WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY...
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN THURSDAY. NIL MOISTURE WITH
THE FRONT WITH NO PRECIP THREAT. ANOTHER BOUNDARY DOES MOVE INTO
THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THE NAM AND SREF HINT AT SOME INCREASE IN
PRECIP CHANCES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT BELIEVE SLIGHTLY BETTER
FORCING MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYS 4-
7...ALONG WITH HIT-OR-MISS POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION.  A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EMBEDDED IN BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW MAY BRING VERY LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT...AND HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHT
CHANCE POP MENTION...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON SEEING
MEASURABLE PRECIP.  COOLER TEMPERATURES IN WAKE OF THE SATURDAY
EVENING COLD FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPS AROUND THE 40S ON SUNDAY...BUT
WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD REACH AT LEAST THE WESTERN CWA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY.  THOUGHT ABOUT BOOSTING
MONDAY TEMPS...BUT 12Z ECMWF CAME IN WITH SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE
WINDS AND LIGHT RAIN IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME OVER THE CWA
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...IN CONTRAST TO THE DRY AIRMASS AND WESTERLY
WINDS OF THE 12Z GFS.  KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW WITH BUT HIGHER
CLOUDS...AND DID NOT RAISE TEMPS.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO
DROP THROUGH THE CWA ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS TO MN/IA...POTENTIALLY BRUSHING THE NORTHEASTERN
CWA WITH PRECIP SOMETIME AROUND LATE MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH AGAIN THE
ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT WETTER THAN THE GFS. HAVE COOLED TEMPS SLIGHTLY
IN THE NORTH ON TUESDAY. NORTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S ON WEDNESDAY AS
WELL...WHICH IS STILL ABOVE NORMAL BUT A BIT COOLER THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST MID TO LATE THURSDAY
MORNING. ANY CLOUDS SHOULD BE ABOVE 5000 FEET.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...MILLER