000
FXUS63 KOAX 221205
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
705 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

The primary forecast concerns in this period are heat headlines
today and thunderstorm chances today into tonight.

500 mb ridge to our south has weakened a bit and should continue to
do that today. Shortwave trough over southern parts of Saskatchewan
and Manitoba (with 12 hour height falls of about 40 meters) extended
down into parts of the northern plains and should continue to
move east/southeast today. Water vapor satellite loop showed
strongest flow and organized storms to our north/northeast, but
there was somewhat of a monsoonal moisture connection back down
into the Four Corners region. Very weak cold front continued to
push south across the area and should be down into KS and MO this
afternoon. RAP, HRRR and experimental HRRR all suggest some storms
possible this morning near that front across parts of southeast
NE and southwest IA. Models also suggest some low potential
spreading into the area from the west this afternoon, which will
linger into the evening. Forecast soundings indicate this will be
fairly high based, with some drier air below cloud base,
suggesting potential for gusty winds. Temperatures today should be
a bit cooler most areas, but still lots of 90s. We still look for
heat index values above 100, mainly for southern parts of the
forecast area today. Will make a few minor adjustments to counties
included based on most recent guidance and expected heat indices.

Chance of storms after early evening should be confined to near
the KS border as storms that develop this afternoon try to move
east. Otherwise the period from Sunday through Monday looks mainly
dry.

Temperatures Sunday and Monday should top out mainly in the upper
80s and lower 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Some low and spotty thunderstorm chances will return for parts of
the area from Monday night through Wednesday morning. At the
start of this period, a mid tropospheric ridge is expected to
stretch from TX into NM and CO, with a closed low up over
Saskatchewan. Brunt of forcing for upward vertical motion will
occur with that feature as it tracks east across Canada, but is
should help push a cold front down through our area Tuesday night
into Wednesday. By Wednesday night, the boundary should be to our
south and we could get some storms with lift up and over the
front. Right now it appears chances would decrease Thursday with
dry conditions returning for Friday and Saturday.

Temperatures should top out in the upper 80s and lower 90s from
Tuesday into Wednesday, then be slightly cooler for later in the
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

IFR conditions for a few hours early in the taf period with north
winds and north winds/low clouds. There may be a shower or
isolated thunderstorm today, however probabilities too low to
mention in the tafs.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for NEZ045-052-053-
     065>068-078-088>090.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for
     NEZ091>093.

IA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for IAZ055-056-069-079.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for IAZ080-
     090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Miller
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...Zapotocny