Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 192315
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
615 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Dry, windy, and unseasonably warm conditions continue Friday, but
rain chances return briefly Friday night and Saturday as a cold
front moves into the region.

Mostly clear skies tonight with thin cirrus increasing, and a
southerly wind that remains somewhat elevated overnight, which
helps to keep lows only in the lower to mid 50s.

Windy conditions develop Friday as a mid level short wave currently
across NM/TX moves over our area. Low levels remain dry thus only
expecting an increase in mid level cloudiness. Surface winds
easily reach the 20-30 mph range by late morning through afternoon,
with wind gusts 30-40 mph possible. This is just short of wind
advisory criteria, nevertheless high profile vehicles may still
have some trouble, along with loose outdoor items. Temps will
again reach the mid to upper 80s, but surface dewpoints will also
be in the lower/mid 50s, which will mitigate lower humidity.
However, farmers should still exercise caution out in the fields
as they try to make up for lost time on the fall harvest.

Way may see increasing chances for showers/storms Friday night,
but especially on Saturday as a strong trough and associated cold
front move into the region. Pops increase into the 40-80% range
through time, with strong storms possible along the cold front by
Saturday afternoon along and east of the MO river. SPC Day 3
outlook issued early this morning highlighted parts of the area in
a marginal risk of severe storms along the front, which seems
reasonable at this time.

A few showers could be lingering in extreme southeast NE and
southwest IA Saturday evening, but the rain could very well be
east of the area by then too.

Temps finally back to normal on Sunday with highs in the mid to
upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Dry weather through the extended periods. Another frontal boundary
moves into the area Sunday night, with breezy northwest flow on
Monday. This front has limited moisture, and appears to move
through dry at this time. It does however usher in sharply cooler
temps for mid week with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. There
is one more front that arrives Wednesday night, which reinforces
the cooler than normal air for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 607 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

VFR conditions will prevail thru the fcst pd.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DeWald
LONG TERM...DeWald
AVIATION...DEE



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