Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 011120
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
620 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

TODAY

MAIN ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH IS PCPN DEVELOPMENT PROGGED EARLY THIS
MORNING ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA. HRRR/RAP13 BOTH ARE
GENERATING A NARROW STRIP OF PCPN EXTENDING FROM CNTRL KS TO ERN SD
ALONG AXIS OF 850-700MB AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT WHERE POCKET OF 305K
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE RESIDES COINCIDENT TO LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE BRIEF AND SHOULD BE
AT AN END BY MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAV/MET BOTH LOOK REASONABLE
WITH AFTN HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID
MISSOURI VALLEY OVERNIGHT. A WEAK WAVE SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BRINGING A CHANCE OF
RAIN TO THE DAKOTAS...BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA. THE
TAIL END OF THIS COULD BE MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
TUESDAY MORNING...THUS WILL HAVE AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS THERE...BUT OTHER AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR
TUESDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE BREEZY RANGE
WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE NORMAL RANGE WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER
70S.

THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVES OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL PROBABLY MOSTLY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THERE PROBABLY WILL BE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF LINGERING
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND NORTHEAST FROM THIS
SURFACE LOW...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHICH ESSENTIALLY KEEPS THE REGION IN THE WARM AND MUGGY
UNSTABLE AIR. UNCERTAIN OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LEAVE IN SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS EXISTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES. BY THIS TIME...PW
VALUES INCREASE TO ABOUT 1.7 INCHES ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE
PLAINS...WHICH IS IN THE 30 YEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL 90TH PERCENTILE
CATEGORY...THUS ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE PUSHED
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY...AS YET ANOTHER WEAK UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES OFF THE ROCKIES. THIS COULD LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THAT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. PW VALUES ACTUALLY INCREASE
TO ABOUT 1.9 INCHES BY THURSDAY EVENING...THUS ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY STILL BE IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA WHICH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT
FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE DAY. FINALLY SHOULD
BE A DRY PERIOD BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION REMAINS IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS.

SATURDAY COULD ACTUALLY BE DRY AS WELL AS WE WAIT FOR THE NEXT
WAVE TO MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AS THE REGION SHOULD NOW
BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE SATURDAY/SUNDAY
AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE/DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...DEE


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