Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 292027

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
327 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

A significant upper low over the Four Corners region as of mid
afternoon will undergo deepening while translating through the
southern and central Plains into the upper Midwest by midday
Monday. The associated surface low currently along the OK-TX Red
River Valley will concurrently develop north into the Mid MO
Valley on Sunday before accelerating northeast into the upper
Great Lakes on Monday.

Large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the above-mentioned
synoptic system will increase markedly across the forecast area
tonight into Monday, fostering an areal increase in precipitation
during that time frame. 20z surface observations indicate
temperatures commonly in the 40s and dewpoints in in the 30s to
lower 40s, so initial precipitation type will be liquid.
Steepening mid-level lapse rates immediately downstream from the
migratory cyclone could contribute to isolated thunderstorm
development tonight into early Sunday across southern parts of the
forecast area.

By Sunday afternoon, the combined effects of intense forcing for
ascent and latent cooling via evaporation and melting will result
in a rain-snow mix and eventual change over to snow within the
evolving deformation axis across northeast NE. Over the remainder
of the forecast area, intermittent rain showers will be possible
within the western fringe of the mid-level dry slot nosing north
through MO into IA.

Snowfall will continue across northeast NE Sunday night with a
rain-snow mix spreading southeast across much of eastern NE and
southwest IA. Highest snowfall totals are expected across the
northwest part of the CWA where 2-5 inches are possible by Monday
morning. Storm-total (i.e. tonight - Monday morning) liquid
equivalent amounts of 1.00-1.75" appear possible; consistent with
WPC guidance. In addition to the precipitation, we will
experience unseasonably cold temperatures and gusty winds tonight
into early Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

With the passage of the strong synoptic system to our northeast
early next week, another shortwave trough is forecast to amplify
over the central U.S. Tuesday night into Wednesday night, which
will support increasing precipitation chances. Temperatures will
continue to moderate with afternoon highs in the 60s by mid week
with 70s by late in the work week into next weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

MVFR ceilings and associated precipitation have been slow to move
into the TAF sites today. Lower ceilings are now being reported at
KLNK as the main area of showers has largely stayed to the east.
The overall trend remains and conditions will continue to
deteriorate throughout the forecast period. Expect IFR conditions
and fairly gusty winds to prevail at least through early Sunday




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