Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 061156
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
656 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 558 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXPANDED A LITTLE IN COVERAGE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND MAY CLIP KNOX/CEDAR COUNTIES EARLY
THIS MORNING. NO MODEL HAD A REAL HANDLE ON THIS...WITH MOST
RECENT RUNS OF THE OPERATIONAL HRRR FINALLY CATCHING ON BY 09Z.
NOTHING MORE THAN A PASSING SPRINKLE...MAYBE WITH A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

QUIET AND VERY WARM WEATHER TODAY...THEN MORE ACTIVE AND WET
WEATHER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

UPPER RIDGE REMAINS FIRM ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WITH
CLOSED LOWS ACROSS BOTH COASTS. THIS RESULTS IN ONE MORE DRY DAY
WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS PROBABLY
REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 80S. THIS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...BUT STILL TOO
HIGH FOR ANY RED FLAG FIRE CONCERNS. THESE HIGHS ARE ALSO WELL
BELOW ANY MAX TEMP RECORDS TODAY WHICH RANGE FROM 95 TO 101.

THERE IS A COLD FRONT MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO BE PUSHED BY AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL CANADA. THIS FRONT SETTLES SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA TOWARD I80 THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF IT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. PRECIP COULD VERY WELL EVEN REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

SATURDAY...THE FRONT SETTLES A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH BUT NOT MUCH.
THIS SETS UP A PRETTY TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. HIGHS NORTH OF THE FRONT IN THE MID 60S...BUT NEAR 80 ALONG
THE KS/NE BORDER. THERE COULD BE ISOLATED REMNANTS FROM ANY
CONVECTION NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY SATURDAY MORNING. BUT...AGAIN IT
COULD ALSO BE DRY AS UPPER RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE...WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT FORCING OTHERWISE. WITH THE FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...INSTABILITY DOES
BUILD NEAR IT. A WEAK CAP MAY HOLD WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING
FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. WILL MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL PROBABLY REMAIN DRY. IF A STORM WOULD DEVELOP...THERE IS JUST
A MARGINAL RISK THAT IT COULD BE SEVERE.

SATURDAY NIGHT NIGHT...ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP NORTH OF
THE SURFACE FRONT AS DEPICTED BY VARIOUS MODELS. HOWEVER...THE NAM
IS ALSO HINTING THAT A WEAK PIECE OF ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE MAIN
LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THUS WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SUNDAY IS TRICKY AS MODEL ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT
OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. THERE COULD BE LINGERING ACTIVITY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. STRONGER STORMS COULD DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BUILD WITH DEWPOINTS RISING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND POSSIBLY EVEN LOWER 60S. ANY MORNING
CONVECTION COULD HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT...
THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW OF THE DETAILS AT THIS POINT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

PRECIP CHANCE SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LOW
BEGINS TO MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SEVERE
STORMS SUNDAY EVENING...AND MAYBE EVEN OVERNIGHT AS ELEVATED
STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. ONE HALF TO ONE AND ONE HALF INCHES
OF RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. PW
VALUES INCREASE TO ABOUT 1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
BASED ON NAEFS CLIMATOLOGY DURING THIS TIME.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY THROUGH MONDAY
AS SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAIN IN THE REGION. COULD ALSO
BE A SEVERE RISK ON MONDAY AS WELL...WITH PRECIP THREAT CONTINUING
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SHIFTS EASTWARD.

TUESDAY WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED
STORMS BASED ON OLDER MODEL BLENDS...BUT REALLY THE NEWER MODELS
ARE SHOWING IT COULD BE DRY AS WE ARE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. ANOTHER
WEAK WAVE COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY BRING
ONE MORE SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS...WITH DRY
WEATHER THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER DEVELOPED WITH A LOW LEVEL JET IN SOUTH DAKOTA. THESE
COULD LAST ANOTHER A COUPLE HOURS...BUT TOO SMALL A CHANCE TO
INCLUDE AT KOFK. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 12 TO 18KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25KTS...THEN DECREASES TO 5 TO 10 KTS THIS EVENING. A
LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO 45KTS LATER TONIGHT NEAR KLNK.
THIS COULD SPARK A FEW STORMS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY



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