Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 211802
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1202 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 300 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

QPF and timing of precip type will be main concerns in the
forecast.

High pressure centered over north central Nebraska at 08Z will
shift east toward the lower Great Lakes today and give the area
a mostly sunny but cold day today before clouds and precip return
tonight and Thursday.

Thermal profiles will be starting out cold across the area
tonight into Thursday morning with light snow expected to spread
north from the southern border through the overnight with main
band of snow setting up south of Lincoln and Omaha into southwest
Iowa. Snowfall is expected to be in the 1 to 2 inch range for
this area by Thursday morning. Soundings and RH progs suggest mid
levels will be drying out between 06Z and 12Z Thursday in the
south so some freezing drizzle may replace the light snow in that
area during the early morning. Amounts at this time look to be
rather light and with the prior snowfall don`t expect any major
ice problems.

During the day Thursday periods of mixed precipitation are likely
across all the area as pockets of drier mid level air spread
toward the northern Nebraska border, although snow will likely be
more prevalent there during the afternoon. A stronger surge of dry
mid level air is indicated to move into southeast Nebraska and
southwest Iowa Thursday evening with freezing drizzle becoming the
dominant precipitation type there at that time while a mix of
light snow and freezing drizzle continues in the north. Precip
then ends for the area after 06Z Friday as the upper wave
providing the forcing lifts off toward the upper Great Lakes.

Decreasing clouds then on Friday with temperatures climbing above
freezing in southern parts of the area and around freezing in the
north.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

Pattern looks to remain wet in the extended period with PoPs
increasing already Friday night into Saturday. More mixed precip
appears likely for the area with moderate snow possible for parts
of northeast Nebraska. Dry weather returns Saturday night into the
early part of next week but some chance of more precip by mid
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1142 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

High clouds today, then mid clouds fl050-100 will be on the
increase this evening with snow developing. The hi-res models
saturate enough for snow especially in the 06-10Z time period with
deteriorating conditions to MVFR/IFR/LIFR with lowering ceilings
and snow. Forecast soundings hint at a loss of ice as the lift
weakens and the precipitation would be freezing drizzle. For now
included this freezing drizzle mention at KLNK after 12Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fobert
LONG TERM...Fobert
AVIATION...Zapotocny



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