Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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534
FXUS63 KOAX 142313
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
513 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 306 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

Water vapor imagery this afternoon showing a well defined upper
ridge situated over the western CONUS extending into British
Columbia with with a vort max dropping down the front side
preparing to to push into the lower 48. Meanwhile...hefty Pacific
riding up and over the ridge was spilling into the northern High
Plains. At the surface...low pressure was centered over northern
MN with attendant arctic front straddling the U.S./Canadian
border.

Aforementioned vort max dropping into the lower 48 this evening
will induce synoptic scale ascent with light snow developing
along axis of mid-layer ageostrophic forcing. RAP/HRRR/HREF all
suggest the snow band will shift southward rather quickly and
should be clear of the CWA sometime toward midnight. Given this,
expect total accumulations come Monday morning to be less than an
inch.

Surface winds crank up behind the arctic front pushing the northern
CWA into WC advisory territory Monday, then the entire CWA Monday
night through Tuesday morning.

Otherwise, height increases over the central Plains on Wednesday
will help push highs back into the lower/mid 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 306 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

Meteogram progs indicate a generous warming trend is on the
horizon in the extended periods with highs pushing into the mid
40s by Friday. Both the ECM/GFS indicate there is a chance for
some precip mainly Saturday night into Sunday in association with
a deep trof crossing through the Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 512 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

Areas of light snow will push through the area this evening with
mainly MVFR ceilings. In the snow showers, visibilities may drop
to around 1 mile briefly with IFR ceilings. Models suggest some
decrease in low level moisture overnight, but will keep an MVFR
broken ceiling in overnight, then let clouds scatter out Monday
morning. Will adjust as needed through the evening.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Wind Chill Advisory from 4 AM Monday to noon CST Tuesday for
     NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053.

     Wind Chill Advisory from 3 PM Monday to noon CST Tuesday for
     NEZ065>068-078-088>093.

IA...Wind Chill Advisory from 4 AM Monday to noon CST Tuesday for
     IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080.

     Wind Chill Advisory from 3 PM Monday to noon CST Tuesday for
     IAZ090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...Miller



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