Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 180448
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1148 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STORMS TONIGHT...WARMER THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...THEN CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH COLD FRONT SATURDAY
ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

AREA OF STRATUS COVERING THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA THIS MORNING
HAS FINALLY BROKEN UP THIS AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE HAD PUSHED
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S ALL AREAS TODAY. HIGH DEW POINTS WERE
JUST ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN BORDER WHERE UPPER 60S READINGS WERE NOTED
IN KANSAS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL BRING THAT MOISTURE
NORTH...LEADING TO SATURATED LOW LEVELS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRATUS AND FOG. HAVE INSERTED THIS MENTION IN THE GRIDS.
ALSO...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET...FOCUSED MAINLY OVER CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...WILL GENERATE SOME CONVECTION THERE AS WARM ADVECTION
IS MAXIMIZED AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THOSE COULD WORK INTO OUR
SOUTHEAST AND LINGER IN THE WEST DURING THE MORNING.

THEN WARMING MID LEVELS SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION IN CHECK IN THE
AFTERNOON. STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME SUN WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
REBOUND BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 70S.

MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET CAUSED BY
UPPER LEVEL WAVE RIDING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL AGAIN
PRODUCE ELEVATED CONVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THIS WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA WHERE SPEED CONVERGENCE IS
MAXIMIZED. MILD LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
GOOD WARMUP ON FRIDAY AS SUNSHINE AND WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
PREVAIL. HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S STILL LOOK ON TRACK.

AS NORTHERN PLAINS WAVE PASSES TO THE EAST...TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER OUR CWA BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING.
MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM ODILE IS STILL LOOKING LIKE IT WILL
TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK ACROSS KANSAS...BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE
WILL STILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCAPES TO TOP 2000 J/KG AHEAD OF FRONT
SATURDAY. COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW
CONVECTION TO FIRE AS FRONT SETTLES INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA. HAVE FAIRLY HIGH POPS THEN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR LINGERING CONVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT IN OUR
SOUTH...BUT MOST OF THAT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY SUNDAY.
THEN A SOMEWHAT COOLER PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING CANADIAN AIR INTO THE PLAINS. BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL
AVERAGE THE 70S THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS
FORECAST BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO WANDER INTO THE PLAINS BY MID
WEEK...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS BAND OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS
OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SPREAD
SOUTHEAST. A PERIOD OF STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE TOWARD 12Z AT ALL
THREE SITES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ON BACKSIDE OF GREAT
LAKES HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...FOBERT



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