Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 071959
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
159 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS....SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW LATER TODAY INTO
MONDAY.

00Z 500-MB ANALYSIS SHOWED A CORRIDOR OF SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS
FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS WHICH ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT
AMPLIFICATION ALONG THE MS VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ACTUALLY...THIS SYSTEM IS COMPRISED OF TWO SEPARATE ENTITIES: A
LEAD IMPULSE OVER MN WHICH WILL FORM A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK
TRANSLATING FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO LOWER MS VALLEY BY
TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...THERE IS NOT MUCH BAROCLINICITY NOTED WITH THE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MID-MO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
THE MORE PRONOUNCED TEMPERATURE GRADIENT /AND ASSOCIATED COLD
ADVECTION/ OCCURRING IN THE 850-500-MB LAYER. THIS COLD ADVECTION
ALOFT WILL AID IN STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TODAY WHICH
IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF HIGH MOMENTUM FLOW
ALOFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEW DATA FROM HIGHER-
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
OCCUR OVER NERN NEB THROUGH THE PEAK OF THE DIURNAL HEATING
CYCLE...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY
AREA. THE COLD ADVECTION AND RESULTANT STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
ALSO BE SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WHICH WILL SPREAD SEWD
INTO PORTIONS OF NERN NEB LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE/DEVELOP INTO AT LEAST ERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO
MONDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE
PRECIPITATION...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE SPOTTY WITH SOME
LOCATIONS SEEING UP TO AN INCH BY MONDAY MORNING. STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL LOCALLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW. AT THIS
POINT...WE WILL LET THE DAYSHIFT EVALUATE THE SITUATION...AND AN
EXTENSION OF THE WIND ADVISORY OR THE ISSUANCE OF A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.

WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY
WEAKENING BY EVENING. FLURRIES MAY PERSIST MONDAY ACROSS THE ERN
CWA...THOUGH MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH.
THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN ECMWF/GFS/NAM GUIDANCE THAT A
N-S-ORIENTED BAND OF LIGHT SNOW COULD DEVELOP FROM CNTRL SD INTO
N-CNTRL NEB MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. WE WILL NOT INCLUDE A MENTION
AT THIS TIME...THOUGH LOW POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED IN SOME
OF OUR NWRN COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

LATEST MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN
DEPICTING THE SLOW EWD SHIFT AND GRADUAL DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE NATION DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...THE WRN U.S. RIDGE
WILL ALSO TEMPORARILY DE-AMPLIFY...YIELDING A MORE NWLY MID-
LEVEL FLOW REGIME FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO MID-MS VALLEY. THE
MEAN LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL ALIGN IN SIMILAR
FASHION...FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MID AND LOWER MO
VALLEY. AS MENTIONED LAST NIGHT...ANY WEAK PERTURBATIONS
TRANSLATING THROUGH THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CAUSE LATITUDINAL
OSCILLATIONS IN THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE...CASTING CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED. IN GENERAL...WE CAN SAY THAT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
WILL EXIST IN THE SWRN CWA WITH THE COOLEST IN THE NORTHEAST.
THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A LOW-PROBABILITY CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH EVENING HOURS...GUSTING CLOSE TO
50MPH AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT KOFK. BY TONIGHT EXPECT MVFR
CEILINGS TO MOVE IN AND WINDS TO REMAIN STRONG OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-
     030>034-042>044-050.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEAD
LONG TERM...MEAD
AVIATION...PEARSON


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