Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 180345

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1045 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

.SHORT TERM...(tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

No significant changes planned to the going fcst at this point as
the latest model solutions still reflect what is anticipated.

Relatively progressive large scale flow progged over the next
several with the feature of interest being a vigorous vort max
crossing into the  cntrl plains on Wednesday. Synoptic forcing via
DPVA/mid lyr ageostrophic forcing. Model are maintaining pcpn
activity reaching the nrn CWA Wednesday aftn then spreading over the
rest of the CWA during the early evening hours. If not for the lack
of moisture...suspect system would likely have been a decent
rainmaker. In light of this...low-end POPs still look like the best

Otherwise...a relatively weak Canadian air mass pushing south will
mean temps generally hovering near normal Tuesday through

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

GFS/ECM show a gradual shift to zonal over the conus with no major
systems passing along with minimal thermal advection/near normal
temps heading into this weekend. However...meteograms are hinting at
a subtle rebound in temperatures Saturday through Monday across
the majority of the CWA.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1039 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Visibility has dropped to MVFR at KOFK in a band from northeast NE
into southeast SD, but guidance is only just picking up on the
signal there. It still suggests visbilities stay above 6SM at
KOMA/KLNK, but am concerned that there may be at least a temporary
vis restriction. Left out mention at KOMA/KLNK for now. Otherwise,
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF cycle. Light winds
will become northwesterly but remain under 10kt, with wind shear
possible at all sites through daybreak.




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