Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 302322
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
622 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

GIVEN LATEST TRENDS OF SD SFC LOW...SVR THREAT OVER THE NRN CWA FOR
THIS AFTN/EVENING LOOKING LESS LIKELY THAT PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. AT
PRESENT SFC LOW WAS CENTERED OVER WRN SD WITH MOISTURE FEED RUNNING
UP THE MO VLY REGION INTO THE SYSTEM. THE RAP HAS BEEN CONSISTENT THE
LAST SEVERAL RUNS TAKING THE POTENT UPPER LVL VORT MAX/SFC
REFLECTION TRIPLE POINT IN A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK.
HOWEVER...CANNOT TOTALLY DISCOUNT SOME TSTM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
LATER ON...THUS WILL HAVE TO AT LEAST MAINTAIN SMALL POPS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MOVING ON...NEXT SEVERAL DAYS PCPN CHANCES WILL REVOLVE AROUND NEXT
COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. BOTH NAM/GFS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT SFC BNDRY WILL STRETCH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ERN CO...AND
SHOULD BE STAGNANT THRU THE DAY DUE TO PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT. BY WED
NIGHT THOUGH...A SHORTWAVE TROF EXITING THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL ACT
TO HELP DISPLACE THE SFC FRONT EWD...AND IS PROGGED TO EXTEND FROM
THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION TO ERN OK BY THUR AFTN. AT THIS POINT
FEEL THE ARW/NMM BEST REFLECTS ANTICIPATED PROGRESSION OF PCPN
ACTIVITY DURING THIS TIME...THUS HAVE GEARED POPS ACCORDINGLY.

AS FOR SVR POTENTIAL WED AFTN...STOUT INSTABILITY WILL BE ON HAND.
HOWEVER...BOTH NAM/GFS SEEM TO FAVOR SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE CWA WHERE EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE MOST PREVALENT.
NEVERTHELESS...THERE IS STILL AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE AREAS SOUTH OF
I-80 COULD SEE STRONG/NEAR SVR STORMS.

IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL...GIVEN SLOW NATURE OF PASSING BNDRY
COUPLED WITH PROLONGED VERTICAL ASCENT...IT IS QUITE PROBABLE A
FEW LOCATION ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 WILL EXPERIENCE HEFTY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY EVENTS END THURSDAY AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED IN THE EXTENDED PDS AS BOTH GFS/ECM
MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THRU THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH UPSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE WRN CONUS...EXPECT
INCREASING THKNS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THUS ALLOWING FOR A
RATHER NICE FALL TYPE CONDITIONS NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

PRECIP IS LIKELY DONE AT KOFK UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEN
SHOWERS MIGHT MOVE BACK IN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
KOMA/KLNK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT THEN ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY MOVING OUT OF NORTHEASTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS INITIALLY...BUT BECOMING MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR
ESPECIALLY AT KLNK/KOMA. WILL PROBABLY TRANSITION BACK TO VFR LATE
TOMORROW MORNING. WHILE THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS AT
KOMA/KLNK LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...TOO FAR OUT TO PREDICT WITH
ANY CERTAINTY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...DEWALD


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