Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 290441
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1141 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

MADE A FEW VERY MINOR CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST EARLIER...
MOSTLY JUST BUMPING SKY COVER UP A LITTLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

12Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS AND CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE AN
MID-LEVEL LOW ALONG THE MN-IA BORDER AND AN UPSTREAM CYCLONE OVER
THE LOWER CO VALLEY. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL
BUILD THROUGH THE N-CNTRL U.S. TONIGHT...PROMOTING THE MAINTENANCE
OF A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE SAME AREA. WHILE LOW-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS WILL STRENGTHEN LATE TONIGHT FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS
INTO LOWER MO VALLEY...CONSENSUS OF 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z/FRIDAY.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL
EJECT NEWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE PROGRESSION
OF MID AND UPPER-LEVEL WIND MAXIMA FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO ERN
NE/KS AND WRN MO. DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THESE
UPPER-AIR FEATURES WILL DRIVE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW FROM
WRN TX INTO NERN KS BY 12Z/SATURDAY...WHILE AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
LIFTS NWD THROUGH THE OZARKS INTO LOWER MO VALLEY. HEIGHT
FALLS/DCVA ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL
YIELD AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE
CWA TOMORROW (FRI) WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER LOW WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE WHILE SHIFTING
EWD/SEWD AND BECOMING ENTRAINED INTO A BROADER-SCALE TROUGH
STRENGTHENING FROM ERN CANADA INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. THE MID-
LEVEL COLD POOL AND LOCALLY ENHANCED VORTICITY ATTENDANT TO THIS
SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OF
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. GIVEN THE
ALREADY SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS...CONSIDERABLE RUN OFF IS
EXPECTED...RESULTING IN RISING AREA RIVERS. THE CLOUDY...WET
CONDITIONS WILL TEND TO STUNT THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S AND HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER-AIR PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...FEATURING A LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER ERN NORTH AMERICA. IN THE
WEST...A REX BLOCK WILL TRANSITION TO AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE WHICH
WILL SHIFT FROM THE INTERIOR WEST INTO THE CNTRL U.S. BY LATE NEXT
WEEK. THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL YIELD WARMER AFTERNOON
HIGHS...GENERALLY DECREASING CLOUDS AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH
TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THAT WOULD MAINLY BE FOR CIGS...AND
MAINLY AT KOFK. -RA MAY AFFECT KLNK AND KOFK AT TIMES FRIDAY AND
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. PCPN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...MEAD
LONG TERM...MEAD
AVIATION...MILLER



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