Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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000
FXUS65 KPIH 211956
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
156 PM MDT Tue Mar 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday.
A surface low will push through Idaho tonight. It will spread rain
and very high elevation snow showers through all of southeast
Idaho this evening. Snow levels start at 9000 feet then drop to 6
to 7 thousand feet by morning. Have 1 to 3 inches above 8000 feet
in grids through Thursday morning. Most precipitation will shift
to southern and eastern highlands Wednesday night through
Thursday. An upper ridge should bring dry conditions Thursday
night and through Friday morning. Another system will likely
spread precipiation back into the central mountains Friday
afternoon. Will have much cooler temperatures on Wednesday and
Thursday with warming to again well above normal ahead of the
next system on Friday.
GK

.LONG TERM...Friday night through Tuesday. Progressive spring
pattern continues with multiple shortwave troughs passing through
East Idaho. Best chance at DRY weather occurs Sunday otherwise
precipitation expected nearly every period. Multiple cold fronts
gradually drop temperatures through the period toward climatic
normals, mainly Sunday and again Monday night. Still do not expect
snow levels to reach valley floors, but moderate accumulations
mainly above 6500 feet could be possible. DMH

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Snow melt runoff continuing to impact East Idaho. Water
still running in many places, and all advisories have been
continued. Portneuf River remains above flood stage with warning in
place. Latest forecast crests river just at moderate stage with
secondary crest just above moderate stage this weekend. Bear River
continues to climb but forecasts keep river just below flood stage
so have continued watch. Snake River at Blackfoot just above action
stage through the week without a significant climb. Opted to
continue broad river statement managing overall conditions across
the region. Only other change today was to remove portions of the
flood watch in the Snake Plain where snow cover has dissipated.
DMH

&&

.AVIATION...VFR and breezy conditions at many locations this
afternoon. So far weak showers trying to develop near KSUN and KDIJ
otherwise do not expect precipitation to develop until later this
evening. Models again struggling with timing and placement of
precipitation but consensus still points to 00Z-09Z being the focus
across the region. HRRR also developing what appears to be a
consolidated outflow associated with the main batch of convection.
This could bring the winds back into the 15-20kt sustained range
briefly as the convection passes through.  DMH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Thursday morning for IDZ017>019-021>025-031-
032.

&&

$$



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