Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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000
FXUS65 KPIH 242049
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
249 PM MDT WED SEP 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR BREEZY TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY AND TOMORROW AHEAD OF A PACIFIC
SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE.
WYATT

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A SLOW
MOVING PACIFIC STORM TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT ISOLATED CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. MODELS SHOW
PRECIPITATION FARTHER EAST WITH THIS RUN. IF MODELS STAY
CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION TRACK...EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IN THE RANGE OF 0.25 TO .75 WITH LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS. CURRENTLY THE GFS MODEL SHOWS MORE QPF THAN THE
NAM MODEL. THE COLDER AIR STARTS TO MOVE IN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
DROPPING SNOW LEVELS AROUND 900O FEET. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SO EXPECT SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW. MODELS
SHOW BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WITH SOME DRIER CONDITIONS ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS SHORT LIVED AS THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
COLD SYSTEM DROPPING INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
MAINLY MOVE ACROSS THE MONTANA DIVIDE AND THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS
BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING EVEN COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AND DROP SNOW LEVELS
TO AROUND 6500 TO 7000 FEET. WYATT

&&

.AVIATION...WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.   SOME 10 TO
20 KNOT SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED AT PIH AND SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNSET.  EXPECT AN INCREASE IN WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
WELL TO THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE ONCE AGAIN AT BYI...PIH AND IDA.
GK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TO TRANSLATE TO
SOME 20 TO 30 MPH GUSTS EARLY THIS EVENING AS WELL AS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.  A STRONG PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE ON SHORE FRIDAY AND
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
GK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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