Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 291954

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1254 PM MST Tue Nov 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday...Widespread cloud cover
this afternoon to give way to generally partly cloudy skies this
evening. Skies will remain cloudy bordering Wyoming as these areas
should see persistent light to moderate snow showers through
tomorrow. Winter weather is expected to make a return tomorrow for
the remainder of SE Idaho. The timing of this looks begin by late
morning for Upper Snake Plain/Eastern Highland areas (excluding
the Upper Highlands). There is less of an indication of snow
showers from Pocatello westward tomorrow morning but the best
chances for snow will begin later in the evening. A closed upper
low forecast to develop to our north late Wednesday into early
Thursday, or perhaps may stay an open trough. Regardless, this
system will be pulling several waves of energy southward through
our area through Thursday, resulting in additional snowfall. Each
band looks to be relatively quick moving and therefore widespread
heavy snow amounts are not currently forecast. European model
solution looks to be producing the highest precip amounts, with
Canadian forecast model definitely an outlier as it doesn`t wish
to show any precip at all, and the GFS is right in the middle.
The timing of these bands Thursday morning and afternoon becomes a
bit tricky right now as we`ll expect a weak cold front to move
through at about this time. We will have to wait to see where the
front is positioned and exactly where the snowbands are ahead of
the front on Thursday. NP/Messick

.LONG TERM...Fri night through next Tue night. This period starts
off with good agreement between product suite guidance, but the next
significant storm brings about differences. The GFS brings this
storm in faster, on Sat night, with heavier precipitation,
especially Sun. There is only a twelve hour difference at this
point, but after this there is considerable disagreement. Thus have
broadbrushed the Sun night through next Tue night period. This Sat
night/Sun/Sun night storm could pack strong wind besides potentially
heavy precipitation. On Sun, it also looks to bring in some
considerable warming, from the low 30s Sat to low 40s Sun for the
Snake River plain. After skies clear, it should be back to much
colder temperatures. Messick


.AVIATION...This is an uncertain night, especially for KSUN and
KDIJ. The NAM, typically a little to rich on humidity at times,
brings in a major stratus event for the entire valley, and to KSUN
and KDIJ. However, the drier GFS does have stratus in some places,
but not in KSUN and KPIH.  The most likely problem airdrome is KIDA,
that may have stratus all day. KDIJ may also be completely fogged in
or stratused in, if the GFS guidance is too optimistic. Finally, for
KSUN, have gone against the NAM guidance, assuming that the
northwesterly flow will be enough to keep stratus at lower
elevations in the Wood River valley. Not much wind, but its
direction could mean the difference between stratus and fog, or
stratus and no stratus.  Messick



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