Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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000
FXUS65 KPIH 220901
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
301 AM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
LARGE UPPER TROF PUSHING EAST TODAY WITH UPPER LOW MOVING
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST OREGON. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SPREADING
MOISTURE INTO REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY WITH LIKELY CATEGORICAL
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TODAY. ADDED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE WHOLE REGION. COULD SEE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS AND
LOCAL FLASH FLOODING ONCE AGAIN TODAY. FOR NOW DECIDED AGAINST
WATCH AS THINK FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL BE LOCALIZED BUT THE THREAT
EXISTS. UPPER LOW MOVES INTO CENTRAL MONTANA SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
TROF SHIFTS EAST OF IDAHO WITH FLOW ALOFT TURNING NORTHWESTERLY.
WITH COLD POOL ALOFT EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
WIDESPREAD INSTABILITY. ANOTHER WEAK TROF MOVES THROUGH IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SUNDAY BUT EXPECT GENERALLY DRIER CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED. WITH THE UPPER
TROF MOVING THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS SHOULD BE QUITE COOL WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY TODAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
GK

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
EXPECT A GENERAL DRYING TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS STAY IN
NORTHERLY FLOW MONDAY THEN RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM WEST ON
BOTH EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS. EUROPEAN HOLDS ONTO PRECIPITATION
MONDAY AND GFS DRIES OUT QUICKER BUT ON GRIDS KEPT WITH DRYING
PATTERN AND DRIED IT OUT CONSIDERABLY TUESDAY WITH NO PRECIPITATION
OF NOTE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES START COLD AND WELL
BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THEN WARM TO NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS BY
WEDNESDAY.
GK

&&

.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORMS VICINITY ARE EXPECTED AT KBYI AND KPIH
EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE KIDA AND KSUN TAKE A BREAK FOR A FEW
HOURS UNTIL ABOUT 14-15Z WHEN SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN BECOME NUMEROUS
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE CLOSED LOW ENTERING WESTERN IDAHO THIS
AFTERNOON. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY MAY BECOMING VFR WITH HEAVIER DOWN
POURS AT KIDA AND KSUN. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL TAF SITES AGAIN SATURDAY. RS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM WASHINGTON TO
IDAHO TODAY WILL BRING NUMEROUS WETTING RAIN SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. BY SATURDAY MORNING THE CENTER OF THE
LOW WILL BE OVER THE LEMHI RANGE AND MOVING TOWARDS YELLOWSTONE BY
EVENING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE
SALMON-CHALLIS AND CARIBOU TARGHEE FOREST AREAS...WITH ACTIVITY
BECOMING MORE ISOLATED TOWARDS SHOSHONE. RS

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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