Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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000
FXUS65 KPIH 210919
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
319 AM MDT SAT MAR 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY
AND WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS TODAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ENTER
THE REGION OFF THE PACIFIC COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN IDAHO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING
A CHANCE FOR SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW ON MONDAY BUT THE SYSTEM DOES NOT
APPEAR IT WILL BE AS STRONG AS IT DID EARLIER IN THE WEEK. BUT
SOME ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 6000 TO 6500 FEET OF 1 TO 4 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREAT IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN WITH THE SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY BE WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH SUSTAINED
RANGE ON MONDAY. AFTER CONTINUED VERY MILD CONDITIONS OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THEY WILL DROP TO
SEASONAL NORMAL ON MONDAY.
GK

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF ACTIVE AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WARM FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND VALLEY FLOORS ON TUESDAY. LOOKS LIKE A
STRONG PUSH OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT GIVEN THE DIRECTION OF
THE FLOW NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE SNAKE PLAIN. GOOD CHANCES FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
HIGHLANDS...PROBABLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE SNAKE PLAIN AND LOWER
VALLEYS. THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THE GFS HANGS
ON TO SOME RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS
WHEREAS THE ECMWF AND MANY OTHER MEMBERS OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE QUICKLY
BUILD AN UPPER RIDGE INTO THE AREA. INHERITED FORECAST KEEPS SOME
LOW CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE AT
THIS TIME. EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION. MODELS QUICKLY DIVERGE LATE NEXT WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS WANT TO BREAK THE RIDGE
DOWN AND BRING ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM INTO THE AREA WHILE OTHERS KEEP
THE RIDGE IN PLACE. KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
HIGHLANDS FOR THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY BUT QUICKLY WARM UP TO ABOVE NORMAL
BY WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD STAY THAT WAY THROUGH THE WEEK.

VALLE

&&

.AVIATION...A FAST MOVING FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY.
NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...EXPECT ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF ALL TAF SITES...POSSIBLY MOVING THROUGH THE
CHALLIS TO ISLAND PARK AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WILL DEFINITELY HAVE
SOME GUSTY WINDS AROUND TODAY ALONG WITH HIGH VFR CEILINGS.

VALLE
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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