Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 221807

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
107 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2016

...Update to Aviation for 18Z TAFS...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Mon Aug 22 2016

The Ozarks and southeastern Kansas will see one more gorgeous day
today as surface high pressure begins to shift to the east.
Southerly winds will pick up slightly today as the surface
pressure gradient across the plains begins to tighten. This comes
in response to an upper level trough moving across the western
CONUS. Afternoon temperatures will only climb into the lower 80s
thanks in part to the cool surface high over the area.

Cloud cover will be on a slow increase through the night as the
southerly winds bring moisture from the Gulf back into the region.
This will be in response to low pressure developing in the high
plains. Overnight lows will be a bit warmer thanks to the
increasing moisture with lows in the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Mon Aug 22 2016

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may then develop
Tuesday morning as the upper level trough moves east and pushes
the surface low to the east.

For Wednesday through Thursday evening the upper level trough
will fight to push the upper level ridge over the southeast out of
the way. The resulting southwesterly flow aloft will work to
develops a band of precipitation oriented along this boundary.
Models have slightly differing placement where this will set up.
For now both the GFS and ECMWF have the majority of the rainfall
across the northern two thirds of Missouri through early Friday
before the upper trough finally pushes a cold front through the
Ozarks Friday evening.

The general consensus is for off and on showers and storms, none
of which are expected to be severe, impacting the region through
this week and into the coming weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Aug 22 2016

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail
across the TAF sites this afternoon and evening. An upper level
disturbance will start to approach the area from the west tonight
and will move through the area on Tuesday.

Clouds will increase from west to east tonight into Tuesday
morning. Ceilings are expected to lower into the MVR and possibly
IFR range. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop across the region Tuesday morning as the upper level
disturbance moves into the area.


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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