Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 142000

200 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 113 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

Southerly winds were continuing to bring warm and moist air into
the Ozarks this afternoon. This will continue as a storm system
moves across the Plains today and into the area this evening.
Temperatures were well above normal for this part of the year with
most location in the middle 50s to middle 60s.

The storm system that will bring rain to the region was currently
producing rain and a few thunderstorms across Oklahoma and Kansas.
The system is expected to begin to impact the Ozarks by early this
evening and produce rain through much of the overnight hours.

Temperatures will move very little through the day Monday with
morning lows around 50 and highs only in the middle 50s. Rain
will continue through the day as the stacked slow makes its way
towards the Great Lakes with some lingering light rain continuing
into Monday afternoon. The system will also bring with it more
seasonable temperatures as Canadian high pressure slides south
across the plains and filters into the area.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 113 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

The region should see a slow clearing trend starting late Monday
night and continuing through Tuesday and into Wednesday. Models
continue to indicate that this may be the only period this week
that the Ozarks will have a chance for some sunshine as another
storm system is expected to begin to impact the region as early as
late Wednesday night. Even with the mostly clear skies,
temperatures will be more December like with highs in the middle
30s to lower 40s both days.

The next system continues to make its way towards the area towards
the second half of the week. There remains some timing and
coverage differences with the models, but the overall trend is for
several rounds of precipitation beginning as early as Thursday
morning through Saturday morning. The temperatures at this point
would support periods of snow during the overnight with changes to
rain or rain/snow mix during the afternoons.

The system then moves east and is replaced by surface high
pressure with clearing skies and normal temperatures for late


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFs: Some IFR conditions with ceilings
and/or fog linger at KSGF and KBBG but satellite trends indicate
that should improve in the near term. Low pressure over the OK
Panhandle region will reach nw MO by the end of the taf period.
Showers and possibly a low probability for lightning strikes will
spread west to east into the region from 00z-06z then quickly exit
within a few hours. Flight cats will likely remain mvfr while
showers occur with brief ifr possible in heavier showers. SREF
guidance does briefly increase the probability of ifr ceilings in
the wake of the precip, but then lifts ceilings after 12z. Gusty
se winds will veer to the sw late in the taf period. Maintained a
mention of low level wind shear in all tafs after 00z.




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