Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
FXUS63 KSGF 151935
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
235 PM CDT Fri May 15 2015
...Unsettled Weather This Weekend Followed By Cooler Weather Again
Early Next Week...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015
A weak impulse is currently moving across the Missouri Ozarks and
lifting northeastward. Scattered convection has developed ahead of
the impulse across central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks where
instability is better. This convection will continue to move
northward. There appears to be a little subsidence behind the
exiting upper level impulse. Additional isolated to widely scattered
convection is possible elsewhere through the evening hours where the
sun is able to add some instability but it will be limited. Short range
models like the HRRR and RUC13 keep most of the convection
redevelopment towards central Missouri this evening.
Later this evening...for the most part the weather should be fairly
quiet. Will mention the possibility of some patchy fog near large
lakes and river valleys by sunrise in the morning. Forecast cape for
tomorrow approach 2500 J/KG but the deep shear will be limited
around 20 to 25 knots for most of the day over the Ozarks. The
better dynamics will be just to our west across Kansas and Oklahoma
for severe convection. Scattered convection will develop around the
Missouri Ozarks by midday to afternoon on Saturday with the best
potential over south central Missouri.
Models indicate that the leftover severe convection that develops
across Kansas and Oklahoma will move into southeast Kansas and
extreme western Missouri late Saturday evening and overnight. There
is a slight risk for severe weather Saturday evening for these areas
with the main threat being damaging wind gusts and large hail.
MUCape will be between 1500 to 2000 J/KG with Bulk shear values
increasing to 40 knots by Saturday evening over southeast Kansas
and western Missouri. Line segments and clusters of convection is
expected moving eastward from Kansas and Oklahoma into the western
Missouri Ozarks. Total QPF this weekend is expected on average
between 0.5 to 1.0 of an inch.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015
The main upper level support and energy moves away from the area on
Sunday and Sunday night. Models indicate the best potential for
additional convection develop on Sunday afternoon and evening will be
south and east of I-44 across south central Missouri. There is a
very limited potential for a couple strong storms over south central
Missouri Sunday evening. A cold front finally makes some progress
into the area by Monday. There will be a chance for showers and
storms across south central Missouri before the front clears through
Cool and drier air will move in for Monday night through Tuesday
evening. Temperatures will be below average. The weather pattern
becomes unsettled again by the middle and end of next week.
Another broad trough develops across the western U.S. and weak
shortwaves and impulses will move across the central Plains and
Midwest starting Wednesday through Friday with scattered rain
chances and thunderstorms.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015
For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: Scattered showers and storms
will be possible across the area this afternoon into early this
evening. Storms are expected to develop, but with the scattered
nature of this activity covering the potions in the TAFS with
Tempo groups since they will not be widespread.
The convection should push east of the area overnight with mainly
dry conditions expected. MVFR ceilings will be possible early
Saturday morning with light fog possible at the KBBG TAF site.
Additional scattered showers and storms will be possible Saturday
morning but the better chances should remain south and west of the
area until the afternoon hours which is beyond this TAF period.