Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 210348
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
948 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 946 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2015

Visibility has been dropping across the southwest portion of
Missouri and extreme southeast Kansas since sunset. Getting
reports of dense fog and have gone with a dense fog advisory
through 12z for the southwest corner of MO and extreme southeast
Kansas. Added patchy freezing fog towards daybreak, but kept the
advisory dense fog at this time with temperatures generally
remaining at or above the freezing mark most of the night.



UPDATE Issued at 647 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2015

Starting to get some reports of fog across extreme southeast
Kansas into the southwestern portion of Missouri. Dew point
depressions were nearing zero across the area. Sky was beginning
to clear out from the northwest and wind should be fairly light
tonight pointing to some fog becoming more widespread. For now,
have added 1sm fog in the forecast grids/products and spread it
east across southern Missouri where the rain occurred throughout
the evening and continuing through the overnight. Will monitor
over the next several hours and assess the need for a potential
dense fog advisory.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 156 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2015

Compact upper level disturbance continues to move east into the
region. A few bands of light to moderate rain have developed what
has been mostly sprinkles. Under higher radar returns, hourly
rainfall rates are approaching one tenth of an inch per hour. As a
result, there will be a few locations that see a decent bout of
rain. The remainder though, will struggle to measure more than a
few hundredths of an inch. This system is progressive, and should
be exiting stage east early this evening. Clearing will not be far
behind with temperatures falling to around 30 degrees tonight.

Quiet weather will persist through Thursday night. A well
developed storm system will pass well to our south
Thursday/Thursday night, though it will send a shield of high
clouds across the area. Overall, temperatures will be at or above
average.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 156 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2015

Cool high pressure over the plains will continue to impact the
region through the weekend. This will occur as northwesterly flow
aloft remains the predominant track of the jet stream.

A deep, positively tilted upper level trough will move through
the pattern Thursday into Friday with a broad area of rain moving
south of the Ozarks across the southern plains and Gulf region.

In the wake of the trough, an amplified ridge will build over the
west coast and settle the Ozarks firmly under northwest flow into
early next week. Models are indicating the potential for a clipper
system to ride south through the upper flow across the upper
Mississippi and Ohio river valleys late Sunday night into Monday.
this would potentially bring some light precipitation in the form
of rain or a rain/snow mix to portions of the northern Ozarks.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 456 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2015

Ceilings were rising at the terminal sites as the rain shield
shifts east of the area. This trend is expected to continue
through the evening with an eventual clearing sky. May have to
monitor for fog potential during the evening for potential
inclusion in the 06z tafs, but for now have kept VFR conditions
going for this forecast.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Wednesday FOR MOZ088-093-094-
     101>104.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Wednesday FOR KSZ101.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Lindenberg






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