Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 261742
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1242 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

...Update to Aviation and Public Forecast into Early Evening...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

We added isolated showers across portions of central Missouri into
early this afternoon as a remnant mesoscale convective vortex
(MCV) tracks north of the region. We are not expecting much in the
way of rainfall as this activity is rooted in the mid-levels of
the atmosphere.

We have also bumped up winds for the remainder of today across
primarily western Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas.

Only minor adjustments were made to temperatures and dew points
into this evening. We considered expanding the Heat Advisory into
the Truman Lake region but think mid/high clouds may keep
temperatures down just enough to preclude the expansion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tomorrow)
Issued at 222 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

Warm and muggy conditions this morning will give way to what will
likely be the warmest day of the year thus far across the region.
Temperatures today will warm well into the mid to upper 90s as warm
air aloft surges into the region.  A few locations across western
Missouri and southeastern Kansas will come close to 100 degrees.

The one bit of good news is that afternoon mixing should be deep
enough to bring down slightly drier air, resulting in dewpoints
dropping into the mid to upper 60s (versus low 70s this morning).
This will keep heat indices largely in check, though values around
105 degrees will be common across the I-49 region.  A Heat Advisory
will be in effect from 1-8 PM for this region.

Despite the heat and humidity, precipitation will be hard to come by
today and this evening, owning to warm and dry conditions aloft.
While the SPC Day 1 Outlook does technically clip the far
northeastern corner of the CWA, believe that all convective
activity will remain north and east of the CWA through at least
midnight tonight. After midnight, a cold front will begin to
approach from the north, which may be just enough of a focus to
set off a couple of storms. That front will continue south through
the area on Sunday. Despite this being a very strong frontal
boundary, only isolated storm coverage is expected give the poor
quality of the airmass ahead of the front.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Friday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

As that front passes through the CWA from north to south on Sunday,
cooler and drier air will begin to advect into the area as deep
troughing sets up across the eastern half of the CONUS.  This will
result in a prolonged period of temperatures well below normal, with
much lower than normal humidity.  Dry weather is initially expected
through at least mid-week, with a few scattered
showers/thunderstorms then developing for the latter portion of the
workweek into next weekend.  This activity will fairly widely
scattered and largely tied to a diurnal cycle. High temperatures
will be in the low 80s through at least the end of the workweek,
with lows in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

Brisk and gusty southwesterly surface winds will persist for the
remainder of this afternoon along with VFR conditions. Those winds
will diminish slightly this evening with low level wind shear
developing by late evening as a low level jet stream strengthens
over the region. There are then some indications that isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms may develop late tonight across
central and portions of southern Missouri along the southern
extent of that low level jet. While confidence is low in this
scenario, we felt it was prudent to include a PROB30 group at
Springfield and Joplin. A passing cold front will then shift winds
to the west and then northwest Sunday morning. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop on that front across far
southern Missouri or northern Arkansas by mid afternoon on
Sunday. We have therefore included a PROB30 group at Branson later
Sunday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ066-077-088-093.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Schaumann






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