Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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453 FXUS64 KAMA 110002 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 702 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 148 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 A broad area of low pressure continues to sit over the area within upper level ridge present over the Southern Great Plains and Desert Southwest. Based on this mornings upper air sounding PWATs are around 1.23" with a very tropical like sounding with some cold air aloft near H7 to H5 layer. An MCV was seen on radar this morning and has taken an unusual track back to the northwest coming up into the FA from the south and sparking showers and thunderstorms across the southwestern TX Panhandle. Heavy rainfall rates have been observed verifying the very moist morning sounding. Effective CAPE values are between 200 and 400 J/Kg allowing for enough instability for a few rumbles of thunder and rainfall rates between 1" and 2" an hour. This activity with the dynamics aloft are expected to continue through this evening with activity winding down after that. Until then, the main threat today will be potential flooding with this set up. Thanks to the cloud cover and rain, afternoon temperatures are expected to remain in the 70s for much of the southwestern half of the combined Panhandles. Some additional shower activity may continue overnight into tomorrow with a secondary low pressure system aloft is expected to trek across the area. This low will favor the rain staying in the southern TX Panhandle southward. It is yet to be determine how much activity may actually occur overnight as CAMs have backed off on precip. The speed of the low will determine how long PoPs potentially stick around for tonight and tomorrow. As the low moves off, skies should clear a little in the afternoon for sunshine to help temperatures make it into the 80s. Tomorrow night is expected to be primarily rain free with the maybe the exception of some lingering activity in the far southeastern TX Panhandle. Again, depends on how fast this this weak cutoff low moves across. 36 && .LONG TERM ... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 148 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Wed H5 heights are progged to rise to around 590 dam under a ridge expected to build in over the area. On Thu those H5 heights are expected to rise to near 595 dam. Afternoon temperatures Wed are expected to be in the lower 90s, with upper 90s expected for Thu with these height rises. Quite a bit of moisture is expected to be in place for both days again with dewpoints in the 50s and 60s and H7 theta-e advection near 330 to 340 K. Models mostly expect Wed through Thu to be dry. However, if any disturbance comes across the ridge showers and thunderstorms will be possible. Have stayed with NBM values which do now give some slight chance PoPs, mainly across the northern combined Panhandles for Thu night. Fri may be a few degrees cooler. However, temperatures are still expected to be well into the mid 90s. A shortwave trough may move into the area Fri night from the southwest. This will give the northwestern half to two thirds of the combined Panhandles a 30 to 50 percent chance for thunderstorms Fri night into Sat morning. Again these are the current NBM PoPs. Depending on the rain this may help hold temperatures back on Sat with upper 80s to lower 90s for an afternoon high on Sat. Under high pressure on Sun temperatures are expected to warm to the mid to upper 90s once again. 36 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 646 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 For the 00Z TAFs, MVFR to IFR cigs are expected to redevelop tonight at KDHT and KAMA and persist until around mid to late Tuesday morning. It appears KGUY may remain VFR throughout this forecast cycle at this time. There is also the potential for some fog to develop late tonight into Tuesday morning at KDHT and KAMA. However, confidence is low in this occurrence so have opted to omit mention at this time. 02 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 60 82 61 90 / 30 30 10 0 Beaver OK 62 87 62 95 / 10 10 0 0 Boise City OK 56 86 57 95 / 10 20 0 10 Borger TX 63 87 63 95 / 30 20 10 0 Boys Ranch TX 61 86 62 94 / 30 10 10 0 Canyon TX 59 82 60 89 / 30 30 10 0 Clarendon TX 61 79 61 85 / 50 40 10 0 Dalhart TX 57 85 58 93 / 20 10 0 10 Guymon OK 59 86 60 95 / 10 10 0 0 Hereford TX 60 83 61 91 / 40 20 10 0 Lipscomb TX 63 84 62 92 / 20 20 10 0 Pampa TX 61 82 62 89 / 40 20 10 0 Shamrock TX 63 81 63 87 / 50 40 10 0 Wellington TX 63 81 63 87 / 60 50 20 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...36 LONG TERM....36 AVIATION...02