733
FXUS64 KAMA 101054
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
554 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 205 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

An upper level disturbance is passing across the southern plains
currently which is causing the rain showers and thunderstorm
activity. This activity is most prominent in the SW and S portions
of the TX panhandle with activity decreasing to the NE. The
atmosphere remains abnormally moist with it being in the top 2.5%
to 1% moistness for this time of year. The shear amount of
moisture will allow any rain shower or thunderstorms to be very
heavy with high rain rates. This will be compounded by the lack of
steering flow aloft which will allow rain showers and
thunderstorms to just sit over a single area for a long time. Both
of these are creating a threat for flash flooding in the
panhandles mainly during the morning but it could extend into the
afternoon hours. An example of this threat has already been seen
at Palo Duro Canyon which had accumulation of 1.5 in in less than
30 minutes. To add even further danger a large portion of the
flood risk will occur during the dark of night making it harder to
detect any ongoing flooding. So be sure to stay alert, Turn
Around and Dont Drown as flood water can easily sweep away
vehicles and kill their occupants.

While the chance for rain showers and thunderstorms will persist
into overnight hours going into Tuesday. However moisture will be
departing the area starting this evening so the threat of flooding
will be reduced for that time. Moisture will continue to depart
through Tuesday morning as drier air works it way across the
panhandles. This will erode away the chance for rain showers and
thunderstorms seeing them largely cease by the late evening.
Temperatures till be on the rise for Tuesday as a ridge begins to
reestablish itself over the panhandles. This will see the highs
increase to the 80s across the panhandles.

SH

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 205 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Wednesday and Thursday should see a ridge establish itself over
the southern plains including the panhandles. This will help to
move in mostly dry air to the panhandles making the weather mostly
fair for both days. There may be an exception for Thursday
afternoon as some mid level moisture moves across the panhandles
which may just be sufficient to spark off a high based shower or
thunderstorms. Under the ridge the temperatures will continue to
rise with Wednesday seeing 90s while Thursday see 90s and 100s. This
ridge is not strong and will likely break down starting later
Thursday which will allow a trough to pass across the southern
plains for the weekend. This will spread moisture into the
panhandles on Friday with the NW panhandles being more likely to
see moisture compared to the SE panhandles. This moisture will
cause rain showers and thunderstorms starting during the
afternoon. The overall dynamics at this time appear to be marginal
at best so the risk of severe weather is likely to be very low.
This could change if the trough becomes more potent and passes
directly across the panhandles. The passage of the trough will not
bring any relief to the heat with highs remaining in the 90s to
100s. Sunday has a moderate chance to see the trough push off to
the east ejecting the moisture out of the panhandles. This would
leave the area dry with fair weather to start off next week. The
odds seem better than not that a ridge will set up over the
panhandles for next week. If this comes about then the dry weather
should extend into the mid next week.

SH

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 531 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

A weather system continues to impact the panhandles causing rain
showers and embedded thunderstorms. KAMA and KDHT have the highest
chances of being impacted. KGUY has a small chance of being
impacted as well but it was not high enough to carry within the
TAF. Flooding may occur if an especially heavy showers linger
over an airfield but this represents a very low, but not zero,
chance. Low ceilings are present across the panhandles of MVFR
levels. These may improve briefly to VFR during the afternoon
hours but going into the evening they are likely to fall back to
MVFR of even IFR. This evening into the overnight hours there is a
chance that fog may form as well but the threat is still to
uncertain to reflect in the TAFs at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                75  60  84  62 /  70  50  40  10
Beaver OK                  83  61  88  63 /  10  20  20  10
Boise City OK              75  57  87  60 /  40  30  20  10
Borger TX                  80  63  88  64 /  50  40  30  10
Boys Ranch TX              77  60  87  63 /  60  50  30  10
Canyon TX                  75  59  83  62 /  70  50  40  10
Clarendon TX               75  61  81  62 /  60  40  50  20
Dalhart TX                 75  57  87  59 /  50  40  20  10
Guymon OK                  79  59  87  61 /  30  20  20  10
Hereford TX                77  60  85  62 /  70  50  30  10
Lipscomb TX                82  62  86  63 /  10  20  20  10
Pampa TX                   77  62  83  63 /  40  30  30  10
Shamrock TX                80  63  82  62 /  30  30  40  20
Wellington TX              80  64  83  63 /  40  40  40  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...98