486
FXUS64 KAMA 100605
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
105 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will move into the Panhandles tonight
into Monday. A few storms could be strong to severe, with large
hail and damaging winds the primary hazards. The primary concern
however, will be high rainfall rates which could lead to flooding
and flash flooding. Rain showers and thunderstorms may continue
through Monday into Monday night, but flooding concerns should
decrease as rain rates will not be as high.

Most cloud dover has cleared out of the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles early this afternoon. There are still some cumulus and
high clouds moving over the area, but these should not inhibit
heating all that much. A weak cold front has moved through the
area which should keep temperatures mainly in the 80s for today.
Some cumulus has begun to develop across the central and south
which may lead to isolated showers or storms this
afternoon/evening. Otherwise, the main upper level disturbance
will move across NM and west Texas late this evening into the
overnight hours. With plenty of moisture throughout the column, as
depicted by model soundings, plenty of showers and storms should
develop and move east and northeast overnight. With PWAT values
over the 90th percentile, rainfall rates upwards of 2 inches per
hour will be possible with the storms tonight. The higher
potential for storms to have 1 inch per hour rain rates will be
across the southwestern TX Panhandle, where the 09/12z HREF
probabilities have around a 30 to 60 percent chance at meeting
this threshold beginning around midnight. These high rainfall
rates could lead to flooding, flash flooding, and hazardous
driving conditions. Some of the most flood prone areas of the
Panhandles, Amarillo and Palo Duro Canyon, will need to be
monitored closely for a flash flood potential for tonight into
Monday morning.

For Monday, the upper level low pressure system is forecast to
remain west of the Panhandles and eventually should start moving
over the area late in the day. Additional showers and
thunderstorms will be possible throughout the day, with the higher
chances across the central and west. With all the moisture still
in place across the area, it will not take much lift to generate
additional showers and thunderstorms. With plenty of cloud cover
across the area tomorrow, highs will likely remain in the 70s for
most with some low 80s across the east. As the disturbance moves
across the area Monday night, showers and storms will continue to
be possible heading into Tuesday morning.

Muscha

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Have stayed with NBM values through the extended period. PoPs
decrease Tuesday night with a possible break in any thunderstorms
across the combined Panhandles for Wed and Thu. Chance PoPs
return to the northwestern half of the combined Panhandles late
Fri into Fri night. Saturday slight chance PoPs exist for much of
the area into Sat night.

After a potentially cool day in the 70s on Mon, Tue will see
temperatures rise back into the 80s as precip chances gradually
decrease through the day as an upper shortwave trough exits the
area to the southeast. Flow aloft is expected to be northerly with
a ridge building to the west over the Desert Southwest with H5
heights around 586 dam over the combined Panhandles. Going into
Wed the ridge will continue to build east over the area with H5
heights rising to 590 dam Wed afternoon and 594 dam by Thu. This
is expected to bring daytime temperatures back int he lower 90s on
Wed and upper 90s to lower triple digits by Thu. A Heat Advisory
is looking likely for PDC once again. Even though Wed and Thu look
to be dry with the ridge building in, models continue to hold
plenty of moisture advection across the area through the week.
Any disturbance in the flow aloft may potentially spark some
midnight surprises Wed night and Thu night.

Fri may also have afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 90s.
A shortwave H5 trough is progged to traverse the area Friday
evening/overnight bringing some precip chances to the northwestern
half of the FA. How much of the FA that will see thunderstorms is
still in question. For now the NBM holds slight chance PoPs for
Sat with highs in the 90s once again.

36

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

For the 06Z TAFs, deteriorating conditions are likely at the
terminal sites through tonight with showers and thunderstorms
anticipated mainly across western and southern sections through
the overnight hours. KAMA and KDHT are most likely to encounter
the precipitation later tonight into Monday morning, while there
remains quite a bit of uncertainty at KGUY where the lowest chance
resides. MVFR cigs are forecast to impact the TAF sites for much
of this cycle.

02

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                60  85  62  91 /  50  40  10  10
Beaver OK                  58  88  63  96 /  20  20  10   0
Boise City OK              55  86  59  96 /  30  20  10   0
Borger TX                  61  89  65  96 /  40  30  10   0
Boys Ranch TX              60  89  64  96 /  50  30  10  10
Canyon TX                  60  84  61  91 /  50  40  10  10
Clarendon TX               61  81  62  88 /  40  50  20  10
Dalhart TX                 56  88  60  95 /  40  20  10  10
Guymon OK                  57  88  61  96 /  20  20  10   0
Hereford TX                60  88  62  94 /  50  30  10  10
Lipscomb TX                61  85  63  92 /  20  20  10   0
Pampa TX                   61  84  63  91 /  30  30  10   0
Shamrock TX                61  82  63  89 /  30  40  20   0
Wellington TX              63  83  64  89 /  40  40  20  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...02