595
FXUS64 KAMA 091731
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1231 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 254 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Today will be another day of active weather as a cold front passes
across the panhandles this morning and then an upper level trough
passes through this afternoon and evening. The passage of the cold
front is causing light rain showers and sporadic thunderstorms
that will persist through the early morning hours. A brief break
or at least a period of lower activity should occur for the mid
to later morning hours as the front weakens then stalls. Another
round of rain shower and thunderstorms will then fire up once the
trough begins its passage across the panhandles. There is still
enough dynamics in play that severe thunderstorms has a low chance
of occurring with hail and winds being the main threats. The
bigger threat for today will be from flooding as there is an
abnormally high amount of moisture across the panhandles. To
further increase the flooding threat the steering flow will be
very slow thanks to the stalling or stalled cold front. So the
rain showers and thunderstorms can produce very high rainfall
rates and persist over an single area for a long duration which
the perfect recipe for flash flooding. The threat for flash
flooding will be maximized in areas of poor drainage such as towns
or cities, low spots, or water channels. Sunday will see cooler
air sink across the panhandles following the passage of the cold
front breaking the string of hot days. Highs will be mainly in the
70s to 80s which represents about a 20 degree drop in
temperatures.

Monday will still see the high moisture lingering across the
panhandles with continued rain showers and thunderstorms. The
continued active weather and high moisture amounts may make the
environment only slightly unstable and unable to regenerate
significant mid level instability. This translates to the rain
showers may transition to a more steady rainfall with limited
embedded thunderstorm activity as there wont be much vertical
instability to work with. Flooding will remain a concern as the
high moisture will still lead to high rain rates even in a
constant rain scenario. As the region may still be very wet from
Sunday it could be that less rainfall will be needed to cause
impactful flooding. The continued wet weather and cloudy skies
will lead to Monday being the coldest day of the week with highs
in the 70s.

SH

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 254 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Showers are likely to start our Tuesday morning with many of the
models still holding the trough and its associated frontal
boundary over the Panhandles. These showers will likely linger
into the afternoon hours with potential of some embedded
thunderstorms mixing in. However, expect these showers to dwindle
once we get into the evening hours with many models finally seeing
the trough and its boundary move off to the east. Once the trough
fully exits, models expect the stationary high over the Southwest
United States to expand over the Panhandles and bring a brief
period of dry and warm weather for Wednesday and portions of
Thursday. This brief period will also allow for temperatures rise
quickly with Thursday once again bringing chances of triple digit
temperatures. However, more active weather looks to be on the way
that afternoon with many models seeing another upper-level trough
pushing through just to the north of the Panhandles. While we will
not see the main impacts from the trough, it will be enough to
loosen the grip of the 500mb high and open the area for a new
frontal boundary that evening and Friday. This boundary will be
the starting point of activity for the day with a series of short-
waves looking to follow and keep activity for the Panhandles going
clear into the weekend. Otherwise, expect high temperatures to
hold in the 90s for Friday and the weekend.

Scoleri

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Main aviation concern over the next 24 hours will be thunderstorms
and low ceilings. Thunderstorm chances begin at KDHT/KAMA after
03z. Any storms that move over the terminals could have gusty
winds and heavy rain which may lead to reduced visibility. There
is too low of confidence to add rain or storm mentions to KGUY at
this time. MVFR to IFR ceilings will move in over all the
terminals around or after 06z and they will remain in place
through the end of this TAF cycle. Outside of any showers or
thunderstorms, winds will mainly be out of the northeast to east
at the sites.

Muscha

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                62  75  61  84 /  90  70  50  40
Beaver OK                  57  80  60  85 /  30  30  40  30
Boise City OK              57  74  56  85 /  70  60  30  30
Borger TX                  63  79  62  87 /  80  70  50  40
Boys Ranch TX              62  77  60  87 /  90  80  50  30
Canyon TX                  61  75  60  84 /  90  70  50  40
Clarendon TX               61  73  61  82 /  90  70  50  50
Dalhart TX                 58  74  56  86 /  80  70  40  20
Guymon OK                  58  77  58  85 /  40  50  40  30
Hereford TX                61  77  61  87 /  90  80  50  30
Lipscomb TX                59  79  61  84 /  50  40  40  40
Pampa TX                   60  74  61  82 /  80  60  50  40
Shamrock TX                61  78  61  81 /  70  60  50  50
Wellington TX              63  78  63  82 /  70  60  50  50

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...05