227
FXUS64 KAMA 090754
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
254 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 254 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Today will be another day of active weather as a cold front passes
across the panhandles this morning and then an upper level trough
passes through this afternoon and evening. The passage of the cold
front is causing light rain showers and sporadic thunderstorms
that will persist through the early morning hours. A brief break
or at least a period of lower activity should occur for the mid
to later morning hours as the front weakens then stalls. Another
round of rain shower and thunderstorms will then fire up once the
trough begins its passage across the panhandles. There is still
enough dynamics in play that severe thunderstorms has a low chance
of occurring with hail and winds being the main threats. The
bigger threat for today will be from flooding as there is an
abnormally high amount of moisture across the panhandles. To
further increase the flooding threat the steering flow will be
very slow thanks to the stalling or stalled cold front. So the
rain showers and thunderstorms can produce very high rainfall
rates and persist over an single area for a long duration which
the perfect recipe for flash flooding. The threat for flash
flooding will be maximized in areas of poor drainage such as towns
or cities, low spots, or water channels. Sunday will see cooler
air sink across the panhandles following the passage of the cold
front breaking the string of hot days. Highs will be mainly in the
70s to 80s which represents about a 20 degree drop in
temperatures.

Monday will still see the high moisture lingering across the
panhandles with continued rain showers and thunderstorms. The
continued active weather and high moisture amounts may make the
environment only slightly unstable and unable to regenerate
significant mid level instability. This translates to the rain
showers may transition to a more steady rainfall with limited
embedded thunderstorm activity as there wont be much vertical
instability to work with. Flooding will remain a concern as the
high moisture will still lead to high rain rates even in a
constant rain scenario. As the region may still be very wet from
Sunday it could be that less rainfall will be needed to cause
impactful flooding. The continued wet weather and cloudy skies
will lead to Monday being the coldest day of the week with highs
in the 70s.

SH

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 254 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Showers are likely to start our Tuesday morning with many of the
models still holding the trough and its associated frontal
boundary over the Panhandles. These showers will likely linger
into the afternoon hours with potential of some embedded
thunderstorms mixing in. However, expect these showers to dwindle
once we get into the evening hours with many models finally seeing
the trough and its boundary move off to the east. Once the trough
fully exits, models expect the stationary high over the Southwest
United States to expand over the Panhandles and bring a brief
period of dry and warm weather for Wednesday and portions of
Thursday. This brief period will also allow for temperatures rise
quickly with Thursday once again bringing chances of triple digit
temperatures. However, more active weather looks to be on the way
that afternoon with many models seeing another upper-level trough
pushing through just to the north of the Panhandles. While we will
not see the main impacts from the trough, it will be enough to
loosen the grip of the 500mb high and open the area for a new
frontal boundary that evening and Friday. This boundary will be
the starting point of activity for the day with a series of short-
waves looking to follow and keep activity for the Panhandles going
clear into the weekend. Otherwise, expect high temperatures to
hold in the 90s for Friday and the weekend.

Scoleri

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Active weather continues across the panhandles this morning all
and then all the way through Monday. Rain showers and
thunderstorms will persist in the panhandles during this time
frame. A few of the thunderstorms may become strong with wind and
hail being the main threat. High rain rates may occur today
leading to flooding that could pose a hazard to the airfields as
well. Low clouds will work there way across the panhandles as
early as this morning but more likely late in the afternoon to
evening. This can lead to MVFR or even IFR ceilings. Likewise the
heavy rainfall may lead to reduced visibilities of MVFR or IFR if
mist forms during the rainfall. Winds will be gusty during the
morning to the afternoon before weakening by the evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                84  62  75  61 /  30  90  70  50
Beaver OK                  78  57  80  60 /  20  50  30  40
Boise City OK              76  57  74  56 /  30  70  60  30
Borger TX                  84  63  79  62 /  30  80  70  50
Boys Ranch TX              84  62  77  60 /  30  90  80  50
Canyon TX                  85  61  75  60 /  30  90  70  50
Clarendon TX               86  61  73  61 /  30  80  70  50
Dalhart TX                 80  58  74  56 /  30  80  70  40
Guymon OK                  77  58  77  58 /  30  60  50  40
Hereford TX                88  61  77  61 /  30  90  80  50
Lipscomb TX                81  59  79  61 /  30  60  40  40
Pampa TX                   82  60  74  61 /  30  80  60  50
Shamrock TX                86  61  78  61 /  30  70  60  50
Wellington TX              91  63  78  63 /  20  70  60  50

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...98