Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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595 FXUS64 KAMA 091731 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1231 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Monday night) Issued at 254 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Today will be another day of active weather as a cold front passes across the panhandles this morning and then an upper level trough passes through this afternoon and evening. The passage of the cold front is causing light rain showers and sporadic thunderstorms that will persist through the early morning hours. A brief break or at least a period of lower activity should occur for the mid to later morning hours as the front weakens then stalls. Another round of rain shower and thunderstorms will then fire up once the trough begins its passage across the panhandles. There is still enough dynamics in play that severe thunderstorms has a low chance of occurring with hail and winds being the main threats. The bigger threat for today will be from flooding as there is an abnormally high amount of moisture across the panhandles. To further increase the flooding threat the steering flow will be very slow thanks to the stalling or stalled cold front. So the rain showers and thunderstorms can produce very high rainfall rates and persist over an single area for a long duration which the perfect recipe for flash flooding. The threat for flash flooding will be maximized in areas of poor drainage such as towns or cities, low spots, or water channels. Sunday will see cooler air sink across the panhandles following the passage of the cold front breaking the string of hot days. Highs will be mainly in the 70s to 80s which represents about a 20 degree drop in temperatures. Monday will still see the high moisture lingering across the panhandles with continued rain showers and thunderstorms. The continued active weather and high moisture amounts may make the environment only slightly unstable and unable to regenerate significant mid level instability. This translates to the rain showers may transition to a more steady rainfall with limited embedded thunderstorm activity as there wont be much vertical instability to work with. Flooding will remain a concern as the high moisture will still lead to high rain rates even in a constant rain scenario. As the region may still be very wet from Sunday it could be that less rainfall will be needed to cause impactful flooding. The continued wet weather and cloudy skies will lead to Monday being the coldest day of the week with highs in the 70s. SH && .LONG TERM ... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 254 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Showers are likely to start our Tuesday morning with many of the models still holding the trough and its associated frontal boundary over the Panhandles. These showers will likely linger into the afternoon hours with potential of some embedded thunderstorms mixing in. However, expect these showers to dwindle once we get into the evening hours with many models finally seeing the trough and its boundary move off to the east. Once the trough fully exits, models expect the stationary high over the Southwest United States to expand over the Panhandles and bring a brief period of dry and warm weather for Wednesday and portions of Thursday. This brief period will also allow for temperatures rise quickly with Thursday once again bringing chances of triple digit temperatures. However, more active weather looks to be on the way that afternoon with many models seeing another upper-level trough pushing through just to the north of the Panhandles. While we will not see the main impacts from the trough, it will be enough to loosen the grip of the 500mb high and open the area for a new frontal boundary that evening and Friday. This boundary will be the starting point of activity for the day with a series of short- waves looking to follow and keep activity for the Panhandles going clear into the weekend. Otherwise, expect high temperatures to hold in the 90s for Friday and the weekend. Scoleri && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Main aviation concern over the next 24 hours will be thunderstorms and low ceilings. Thunderstorm chances begin at KDHT/KAMA after 03z. Any storms that move over the terminals could have gusty winds and heavy rain which may lead to reduced visibility. There is too low of confidence to add rain or storm mentions to KGUY at this time. MVFR to IFR ceilings will move in over all the terminals around or after 06z and they will remain in place through the end of this TAF cycle. Outside of any showers or thunderstorms, winds will mainly be out of the northeast to east at the sites. Muscha && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 62 75 61 84 / 90 70 50 40 Beaver OK 57 80 60 85 / 30 30 40 30 Boise City OK 57 74 56 85 / 70 60 30 30 Borger TX 63 79 62 87 / 80 70 50 40 Boys Ranch TX 62 77 60 87 / 90 80 50 30 Canyon TX 61 75 60 84 / 90 70 50 40 Clarendon TX 61 73 61 82 / 90 70 50 50 Dalhart TX 58 74 56 86 / 80 70 40 20 Guymon OK 58 77 58 85 / 40 50 40 30 Hereford TX 61 77 61 87 / 90 80 50 30 Lipscomb TX 59 79 61 84 / 50 40 40 40 Pampa TX 60 74 61 82 / 80 60 50 40 Shamrock TX 61 78 61 81 / 70 60 50 50 Wellington TX 63 78 63 82 / 70 60 50 50 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...98 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...05