213
FXUS63 KIWX 070810
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
410 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous swim conditions today along portions of southeast
Lake Michigan beaches.

- Low chance for showers Saturday; otherwise dry through
  Thursday.

- Seasonally cool through early next week then warmer.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

A deep surface low was north of Lake Superior with drier air in
the low levels in place south of the low over the forecast area.
Cooler air will continue to spread over the area today with
highs staying below 80 degrees. A weak wave will bring a chance
for showers Saturday into early Saturday night. After coordination
with SPC and surrounding offices, have removed thunder Saturday
given the lack of instability. Also, BUFKIT soundings per GFS
shows some capping apparently due to modification of an EML.
305K isentropic lift shows only a small window favorable for
showers from about Sat/18Z to early Saturday night/03Z.

For next week, have removed rain/storms chances from the model
blend input and the ongoing forecast given lack of model
agreement on any system reaching the area. Temperatures should
stay cool in the wake of the upper low into early next week. The
most recent model runs have scaled back some on the arrival of
the very warm air expected late this coming week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1208 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Lingering tight low level height gradient and deeper diurnal
mixing will once again allow for west-northwest winds to become
increasingly gusty (25-30 kts) mid morning through Friday
afternoon. VFR/dry otherwise with some passing higher based VFR
clouds at times.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement through this afternoon for INZ103.
OH...None.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement through this afternoon for MIZ177-277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...Steinwedel