Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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167 FXUS64 KFWD 030717 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 217 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Today and Tonight/ The airmass over most of North Texas remains heavily influenced by yesterday`s storms. Both the temperature and dewpoint are in the 60s, while areas that did not receive any storms yesterday are in the 70s with dewpoints in the 72-76 range. This has resulted in negligible surface-based instability despite mid-level instability rebounding remarkably quickly. Due to this, we have drastically lowered PoPs this morning compared to our previous forecasts. A few storms are possible over North Texas this morning, with the coverage of storms around 20-30%. The warm/humid airmass over the southern portion of our forecast area will be drawn north this morning along with a blanket of gulf stratus. The stratus will limit heating for most of the day and keep highs in the upper 80s for most. This is important because there is a weak cap sitting over the region and less heating will limit a parcel`s ability to break the cap without the help of a focused source of ascent. It`s worth noting that the cap is stronger west of I-35 and is weaker over East Texas. We could see scattered warm advection showers/storms develop over the eastern part of our area this afternoon that continue into the evening. Two surface boundaries are expected to be near our area later this afternoon...an outflow boundary draped over southern Oklahoma and a dryline to our west. Both boundaries will serve as areas for thunderstorm development today, with an organized line of storms expected along the outflow boundary. The CAM guidance has been consistent with the current cluster of storms over SW Kansas being the primary source of the outflow boundary moving into southern Oklahoma later today. Most of the guidance brings the worst part of this system into Arkansas, but does send the cold pool into north Texas late in the day. Further west, thunderstorms are expected to develop where the cold pool intersects the dryline. For now, that appears most likely between Childress and Wichita Falls. These storms should move E-SE and may move into Western North Texas late in the day. Similar to the past few days, the parameter space remains supportive of damaging wind gusts and perhaps large hail with the strongest updrafts. Heavy rain is expected with any storm...and since area soils are saturated and many water retention ponds/lakes are at capacity, it is not taking much rain to result in flash flooding. Another round of overnight thunderstorm activity is possible across eastern North Texas. Since this will depend on where the boundaries reside in about 24 hours, attempting to place them is a futile exercise at this point. Bonnette && .LONG TERM... /Issued 244 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024/ Update: No major changes were made with this latest long term forecast update. Trends mentioned in the previous discussion below remain representative of the period overall, with the most recent data only necessitating a few minor tweaks/refinements to the forecast. The main talking point for the remainder of the week will be the return of seasonable heat with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s and dewpoints lingering in the 70s. This will result in a few locations through the middle of the week reaching heat index values around 105 degrees. As far as storm potential goes, there continues to be a low chance for intermittent showers and storms through the week into next weekend. While most will remain dry, a couple of isolated storms will be possible - especially on Tuesday morning where another complex could push through portions of North Texas along the Red River. A low chance for storms will remain through the end of the week as a weak cold front pushes into the region. Most of this activity will also depend on the placement of remnant outflow boundaries through the coming days. As mentioned before, a lot of this will depend on real-time radar, satellite, and surface observations. Overall confidence in coverage, extent, and timing of any convective activity remains quite low as well, so continue to check back for updates. Reeves Previous Discussion: /Monday through Next Weekend/ After a very wet and stormy May, it looks like the summer weather will make the headlines this week. As storm chances decrease mid- to-late week, the heat will take the lead with widespread highs in the 90s. With plenty of humidity in place, we will also see heat indices in the 99-105 range Tuesday through Thursday. Monday`s daytime storm chances will highly depend on what happens with the MCS coming south from Oklahoma late Sunday night. As we`ve seen with the recent storm systems, not only they have steadily tracked into North Texas during the morning, but also have left surface boundaries that have triggered convection in the afternoon. While it is difficult to pinpoint where these storms will track/develop, at this time it appears everyone but the far western zones will have at least a low chance for storms Monday afternoon and evening. The threat for severe weather will exist with any of these storms with damaging winds and hail as the main threats. Some storms may also produce brief heavy rain and isolated instances of flooding. Storm chances should decrease Monday night, but we will continue to monitor the potential for another complex traveling south into our area Tuesday morning. Make sure to keep checking back the forecast for updates! An upper ridge centered over Mexico and southern Texas is expected to shift northward during the mid week period (Tuesday- Thursday), spreading some its subsidence across the region. While a mainly dry period will prevail for most of us, a few locations may see some diurnally driven showers/storms Tuesday and Wednesday. Confidence remains low to mention it in the forecast at this time. Beyond that, latest guidance continue to highlight a weak surface front moving southward late Thursday which may bring low rain chances along the Red River into Friday. Northwest flow aloft may also return next weekend and with that the potential for additional rounds of isolated to scattered storms. Sanchez && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /06Z TAFs/ A seemingly narrow band of IFR ceilings was stretched over the D10 terminals that will lead to short-lived low ceilings the next few hours. IFR-MVFR stratus will engulf all of our TAF terminals early this morning and remain in place for most of the morning. Ceilings should slowly lift to VFR after 18-20Z this afternoon. We have removed VCTS from the TAFs during the pre-dawn period. The thunderstorm complex to our northwest never materialized and is no longer expected. We`ll still have to watch for isolated storms developing near/after sunrise, but the chance of an early day storm is around 20%. Scattered storms are expected again this afternoon, with 1 or 2 large storm complexes developing in our region (either in Oklahoma or North Texas). Our low confidence of where this will take place has precluded including TS on-station with the 06Z TAFs. Bonnette && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 75 93 76 92 76 / 20 5 10 10 10 Waco 74 93 75 91 75 / 20 5 5 10 10 Paris 72 87 74 88 72 / 20 10 20 20 10 Denton 73 92 74 92 73 / 20 5 10 10 10 McKinney 73 90 75 90 73 / 20 5 20 10 10 Dallas 74 93 76 92 76 / 20 5 10 10 10 Terrell 73 91 75 89 73 / 20 5 10 10 10 Corsicana 75 92 77 92 75 / 20 5 5 10 10 Temple 74 93 75 93 74 / 20 5 5 10 10 Mineral Wells 73 94 74 93 73 / 20 0 5 5 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$