472
FXUS63 KSGF 272340
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
640 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions through midweek, with temperatures near normal
  in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

- Return of rain chances through late week into the weekend.
  Highest confidence in rain chances (50-80%) late Thursday
  night through Friday. Low potential for excessive rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Through Tonight: High pressure is slowly settling into the area
behind a departing trough. Weak forcing on the backside of the
departing system has spawned a few isolated showers and
thunderstorms across northern Missouri. This activity is
expected to sink southeast through east central Missouri,
keeping our area dry through this evening. Highs have reached
into the upper 70s to lower 80s areawide.

For tonight, the high settles into the region, as winds become
light and variable. With a drier air mass in place, fog will be
limited. However, some patchy fog may occur within low-lying
areas and near waterways. Lows fall into the upper 50s to lower
60s.

Tuesday: For Tuesday, another dry and quiet day across the area
with a system to the southwest across the Southern Plains. Our
region remains locked into northwest flow, though a mix of
clouds and sun can be expected from the system southwest of the
area. Highs climb into the upper 70s to lower 80s, right around
normal for late May.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Wednesday: Low rain chances (10-30%) across far southwest
Missouri on Wednesday afternoon/evening as an additional wave
slides across the Southern Plains. However, the lack of quality
moisture return this far north will likely limit rain chances.
Most areas remain dry through Wednesday with highs in the upper
70s.

Thursday-Sunday: Mid-level ridging deteriorates late week with
more zonal pattern with embedded shortwaves. This supports the
return of more widespread shower and thunderstorms chances
(50-80%) to the area late Thursday into Friday. Additional rain
chances (20-40%) linger across the area next weekend with highs
remaining near normal in the lower 80s. Ensemble guidance vary
on exact timing and location of synoptic features, that will be
best resolved in the shorter term. Current guidance suggest
instability to be best across the west, with rather weak shear.
Moisture return looks stronger by Friday as low-level moisture
advects into the area with PWATs climbing to 1.5 inches or
higher. With this setup in mind, severe weather chances remain
low with more of an emphasis on the potential for excessive
rainfall and flooding. A Marginal (1 of 4) Excessive Rainfall
Outlook exists for Friday across the area. NBM 72 hour QPF
probabilities (Thursday morning-Sunday morning) for greater
than 1 inch are 60 to 80% and for greater than 2 inches are 30
to 50% across the western part of the area. Stay tuned as we
fine tune details on this system through the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 632 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

VFR conditions will persist for at least through 09Z at all TAF
sites, but potentially longer (70% chance for VFR to remain
through the entire TAF period at any given TAF site). Winds will
gradually decrease and become variable through tonight as high
pressure slowly filters in. Mid- to high-level clouds will also
filter in during this time period. There is a 30% chance of
showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder or two to develop along
a NW-SE oriented boundary across SW Missouri. This brings a
slight chance of showers impacting all TAF sites generally
between the 09-22Z period. Confidence is very low on timing and
exact location of the band, but have put confidence in terms of
PROB30 and TEMPO groups in the TAF. JLN/BBG has the highest
chance of seeing rain between 14-20Z, as noted by the TEMPO
period. A better window and probability should come to light
with the 06Z TAF issuance. Otherwise, winds will remain light
out of the NW after 17Z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Perez
LONG TERM...Perez
AVIATION...Price