242
FXUS63 KSGF 281040
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
540 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly dry conditions through midweek, with temperatures near
  normal in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

- Return of rain chances through late week into the weekend.
  Highest confidence in rain chances (50-80%) late Thursday
  night through Friday. Low potential for excessive rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Satellite imagery depicted mostly clear skies across the area
during the early morning hours (some isolated mid to high level
clouds), with observed temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s
across the Ozarks region as of 230 AM. Some patchy fog may
appear in low lying areas and near waterways early this morning,
however coverage will be limited with the dry airmass in place.

Much of the area can expect to remain dry today, with highs in
the upper 70s to low 80s (warmest towards southeast Missouri). A
shortwave is progged to push south of the area throughout the
day today, leading to some models and CAMs showing rain chances
returning to far southwest Missouri later this morning into the
early afternoon. Some discrepancies exist between ensemble
members, as most want to keep the entire area dry, while some
bring in a band of rain. Kept pops between 15-30% for areas
along and southwest of a Branson- Joplin- Fort Scott line to
account for this potential. With northwesterly flow and surface
high pressure in place, most of the area will remain dry today.

For tonight, expect lows in the mid to upper 50s with partly
cloudy skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Models depict an additional upper level wave pushing through the
Southern Plains on Wednesday, with an associated surface low
developing over west Texas and a stationary front
bisecting southern TX. This will allow for low-end rain chances
(10-30%) to return across far southwest Missouri Wednesday
afternoon/evening, however confidence remains low in this
scenario as ensembles continue to show a lack of sufficient moisture
return reaching this far north.

Towards the end of the week, an upper level system will begin to
progress through Canada/the northern CONUS while several
embedded shortwaves push through the region. As a result, the
ridging pattern will deteriorate, and widespread shower and
thunderstorm chances (40-80%) will return to the area late
Thursday into Friday, with 30-45% chances lingering into the
weekend. For Friday, Ensemble members show a mean PWAT around
1.50 inches, with NBM probabilities of 72-hr QPF (Thursday
morning through Sunday morning) showing the following:

>1.0 inch: 50-70% along/west of Hwy 65; 30-50% east of Hwy 65
>2.0 inches: 30-50% along/west of I-49

Because of this, WPC has highlighted the entire area in a
Marginal (1 of 4) risk for Excessive Rainfall, however the
better chances look to be towards the western portion of our CWA.
More details will be made clear as we progress closer to this
timeframe, so make sure to keep up to date with the latest
forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 535 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

VFR conditions should persist through the TAF period. Radar
imagery depicts some scattered showers and an isolated
thunderstorm over central Kansas, which models are depicting
should move into southwest MO later this morning between 14-19Z.
The higher confidence (30%) exists at KJLN, so included this in
a TEMPO group. Confidence was too low in this activity reaching
KBBG or KSGF, so left out of the TAFs for now. Otherwise,
northwesterly surface winds between 5-10 kts is expected this
afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Melto
LONG TERM...Melto
AVIATION...Melto