Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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130 FXUS63 KSGF 270508 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1208 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe thunderstorms are likely this afternoon/evening with large hail up to tennis balls, damaging winds up to 80 mph, and a few tornadoes possible. Chance of strong tornadoes along and east of HWY 63. - Flood Watch in effect until 1 AM for most of the area. - Expect a bit calmer week with temperatures near seasonal norms. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 326 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 SPC has upgraded areas east of HWY 65 to a Moderate Risk for today. Latest surface analysis shows a warm front draped over SW MO following a boundary from JLN to BBG. Probability of lightning over a band of showers just north of the front from Butler to Jefferson City has started to increase. Storm initialization is expected to start over central MO and will continue to spread southward. Rapid destabilization is occurring for areas east of HWY 65. Dewpoints are in the mid 70s with agitated cumulus taking over most of the area. Our 19z special balloon sounding is showing 40-55 knots of deep layer shear, mid-level lapse rates of 8 degrees/km with 3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 4300 J/kg of MUCAPE with a weak cap. With a primed atmosphere in place this afternoon, supercells will be favorable over the next few hours especially as the cold front over central OK continues to push east. All modes of severe weather are possible with golf ball to tennis ball sized hail and 60-70 mph wind gusts with these storms. A few tornadoes are possible especially for southeastern MO for areas east of HWY 63. Any supercells that get going in that area could produce a strong tornado or two (EF2+). Storms have already begun to pop up in NE OK and central MO. Convection is expected to continue through the afternoon into the evening hours. Storms should be out of the area by 10pm-12am. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 326 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 On Monday expect a break in active weather with highs in the 80s, another strong upper level wave will drop southeast over the upper Mississippi valley region and into the Great Lakes region Tuesday into Tuesday night. This will keep us in a northwest flow pattern into the middle of the week with surface high pressure being reinforced over the region. Dry and slightly cooler temperatures are expected during this period. High pressure will shift eastward during the end of the week and will allow moisture to start creeping back into the area over the western CWA with precipitation chances increasing over the area from late in the week into the upcoming weekend(20-50%). Temperatures in the later part of the long term will be near seasonal norms. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1202 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 High confidence in VFR conditions persisting through the TAF period, with nighttime microphysics satellite imagery showing very thin high level clouds scattered across southern Missouri. Northwesterly surface winds should remain between 5-10 kts through this evening before diminishing even further below 5 kts overnight tonight. Some patchy fog may develop in areas that received ample rainfall over the past 24 hours, however not expecting this to affect visibilities at the terminals. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Soria LONG TERM...Soria AVIATION...Melto