Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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513 FXUS64 KAMA 260520 AAB AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1220 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Critical fire weather conditions continue across the central and western Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Winds continue to have gusts over 40 mph at some sites and relative humidity values are in the single digits for most of the forecast area. The Red Flag Warning and Wind Advisory will continue for a few more hours this evening. Thunderstorm chances have greatly decreased and will continue to do so the rest of the evening as the dry line pushes eastward into Oklahoma. Muscha && .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 For today, model agreement continues to see an upper-level trough move through the Panhandles and set up good southwesterly flow for the area. Look for this southwesterly flow to hold for the day and work in tandem with a lee-side surface low in creating very dry and gusty day conditions for the Panhandles. Currently, latest guidance expects relative humidity values to bottom out across the Panhandles with most of the western counties looking at values in the single digits clear into this evening Meanwhile, an upper- level jet will look to follow the weak trough into the area and bleed down to create gusty condition across the Panhandles. As it stand, southwesterly winds reaching the 25 to 30 mph mark with gust nearing 45 mph are possible. However, even stronger winds are possible in the northwestern Panhandles thanks to lee-side low. Here winds speeds could reach closer to 30 to 25 mph with gust nearing 50 mph. Given the presences of such strong winds, a Wind Advisory has been issued for the northwestern most counties until 8 pm tonight. Of course when you add these dry conditions with gusty winds, critical fire weather is to be expected. At this time, a Red Flag Warning has been issue for the western half of the Panhandles that will run until 10 pm this afternoon. As for temperatures, look for them to rebound with many locations back into 90s with a couple of our hotter locations flirting with triple digits yet again. Otherwise, the only other concern for the day will be the very low potential of thunderstorms starting on the eastern border of the Panhandles before moving off into central Oklahoma. Heading into Sunday, model agreement continues to see the rest of the trough move through in the form of a weak cold frontal passage early that morning. This frontal passage will see winds shift to a more westerly and northwesterly direction with much slower speeds for the afternoon compared to today. Otherwise, expect much quieter weather for the day with slightly cooler temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. Scoleri && .LONG TERM ... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 A ridge is still highly likely to be building over NM and CO on Monday as a trough sits over eastern CONUS. The combination of these features will set up a upper level broad NW flow across the panhandles. This will cause the surface winds to shift to the SE starting on Memorial Day that will allow gulf moisture to return to the panhandles. This moisture wont arrive into the panhandles for Memorial Day keeping the skies mostly sunny with fair weather conditions throughout the holiday. Tuesday on the other hand will see the gulf moisture arrive into the panhandles with this moisture feed persisting through Thursday. This moisture will fuel rain showers and thunderstorms that can impact the entire panhandles for each of these days. Moisture trends continue to be wetter so this increases confidence that any rain shower or thunderstorms will produce meaningful rainfall when it occurs. However there is to much of a good thing for if this trend continues then flooding concerns will be on the rise. Currently there is already some indications that these rain showers or thunderstorms could produce well over an inch of rainfall. So if multiple rain showers or thunderstorms hit an area or if an especially intense storm occurs then flooding may easily result. As for stronger thunderstorms there are some small scale trough that will likely pass over the ridge then across the panhandles each day Tuesday through Wednesday. This should provide enough additional instability and dynamics for a few strong to even severe thunderstorms to form. This period of dynamic weather will wane come Friday as the ridge becomes progressive and passes east across the panhandles. This will end the influx of gulf moisture to the panhandles as well as bring broadly more stable conditions. This wont end the rain showers and thunderstorms but make them more isolated with less rainfall potential. Going into next weekend a trough seems to be the more probable feature to move across the region following the ridge. Assuming that moisture is still present then rain showers and thunderstorms will still occur in the panhandles. This remain uncertain as the pattern following the ridge is still very much in flux. Temperatures through next week are likely to be somewhat stable with highs remaining in the 80s to lower 90s. SH && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 West to northwest winds around 10 knots tonight will increase into the 15 to 20 knot range with higher gusts after sunrise. Winds will then decrease and become more northeasterly by early this evening. Skies are expected to remain VFR. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 90 55 89 60 / 0 0 0 0 Beaver OK 88 50 90 57 / 0 0 0 10 Boise City OK 83 49 85 53 / 0 0 0 10 Borger TX 92 55 93 62 / 0 0 0 10 Boys Ranch TX 91 53 92 59 / 0 0 0 10 Canyon TX 90 51 90 58 / 0 0 0 0 Clarendon TX 91 56 89 60 / 0 0 0 10 Dalhart TX 86 47 88 54 / 0 0 0 10 Guymon OK 86 49 89 55 / 0 0 0 10 Hereford TX 92 52 92 58 / 0 0 0 0 Lipscomb TX 88 54 89 59 / 0 0 0 10 Pampa TX 88 54 89 60 / 0 0 0 10 Shamrock TX 91 56 90 60 / 0 0 0 10 Wellington TX 93 58 92 62 / 0 0 0 10 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....98 AVIATION...15