170
FXUS63 KGID 111739
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1239 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There will be low end chances (20%) for thunderstorms
  Wednesday evening, mainly northeast of the tri-cities. There
  will also be a 20-30% chance of thunderstorms across south
  central Nebraska and north central Kansas Thursday evening and
  overnight (mainly along and south of Interstate 80).

- The heat will crank up Wednesday and Thursday. More widespread
  Heat Index values of mid 90s-near 100 possible on Wednesday,
  with a smaller area of 100-105 degree values possible on
  Thursday (mainly along/south of the NE/KS state line).

- Better chances for thunderstorms return late in the week and
  into the weekend, with the best chances (40-60 percent) Friday
  evening through late Saturday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Aloft at 500 hPa, a trough is moving east as it departs the
central Plains today while an upper ridge is over the
northwestern CONUS. Further south, a ridge over Mexico is
building north into the desert Southwest and an upper low is
sitting off of the southern California coast. At the surface, a
weakening front is departing the area with generally high
pressure sitting over the Colorado Rockies.

Today...
Conditions will be mostly dry as an upper ridge approaches from
the west. An embedded shortwave over a very localized surface
low will bring a slight chance (20%) of an isolated shower or
thunderstorm west of Highway 281 this afternoon. Any storms
that develop are not expected to be severe today. High
temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s. Winds will be
generally out of the west at 10 mph this morning, then light and
out of the east this afternoon.

Wednesday... These will be the first hot days of the year. As
upper level high pressure continues to build into the desert
Southwest and expand toward the Plains, temperatures will climb
both days. Highs Wednesday will be in the mid to upper 90s with
heat index values from the mid-90s to around 100. The forecast
Wednesday is mainly dry, but a disturbance passing by the area
will bring a low end chance (20%) for thunderstorms Wednesday
afternoon and evening. There will be pretty good capping over
the area so not much is expected to develop, but any storms that
develop north and east of the tri-cities may become marginally
severe with large hail and strong winds. These would be isolated
though, the better support for severe weather is well off to
our northeast. Additionally, with a tightening surface pressure
gradient will come stronger winds...SSE winds will increase
through the day to around 20 mph sustained with gusts to around
30 mph, with the strongest gusts occurring during the afternoon.

Thursday...
The upper high to the southwest will continue to expand, but a
surface front will move across the area. This will allow hotter
temperatures across southern portions of the forecast area but
mitigate those hot temperatures somewhat north. Highs Thursday
will range from the mid-80s north to nearly 100 degrees across
far south central Nebraska and north central Kansas. Heat index
values will be in the upper 90s to low 100s in north central
Kansas and from the mid-80s to upper 90s across south central
Nebraska (the highest values along the NE/KS state line and
areas south). There will be a chance of thunderstorms (20-30%)
Thursday evening and overnight, mainly along and south of
Interstate 80. Some of these may be marginally severe with large
hail and strong winds.

Friday-Monday... Periods of thunderstorms are expected during
this timeframe, starting with a shortwave disturbance Friday
evening/overnight, then a front over the weekend. Models are in
strong agreement over the timing of the shortwave disturbance
and there is at least a 40-60% chance of rain and thunderstorms
Friday evening into Saturday morning. We are probably not
looking at widespread severe storms Friday and are currently
thinking that if any of these do become severe, it would be
Friday evening before we lose too much surface heating.
Precipitation chances are slightly lower Saturday into Sunday
(30-50%), mainly due to the lower confidence on the timing of
the front through the area. There are indications of another
front moving through early next week, but model consensus is so
low that that is about all we can say for now. Temperatures will
be in the 80s and low 90s Friday and Saturday, but ramp up again
toward the end of the forecast period. Temperatures to end the
weekend and start the next week may well be in the 90s across
the entire forecast area again by this point.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will
become southerly to southeasterly by 00z. Winds will increase
out of the south to southwest around 16z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hickford
AVIATION...Schuldt