Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 162343
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
543 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE HELD ON AGAIN TODAY ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT FOR OUR SOUTHERN KANSAS ZONES. THERE IS
HOPE THAT EASTERN ZONES MIGHT CATCH A FEW BRIEF MOMENTS OF
SUNLIGHT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DO NOT GET YOUR HOPES UP.
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERALLY BE COLD...CLOUDY...AND DRY.

TONIGHT...AN ELONGATED SFC HIGH STRETCHING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
SLIDE EAST TONIGHT RESULTING IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHEAST BY AROUND DAWN. A COMBINATION OF LOW AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO HANG AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH COULD HOLD
TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE BIT.

WEDNESDAY...THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO ERODE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...OVERALL
IT WILL STILL BE A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY...BUT SOME ZONES
PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TRI CITIES MAY POSSIBLY CATCH A
GLIMPSE OF SUNSHINE. THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE AND SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES EARLY ON IN
THE PERIOD.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST RIGHT OFF THE BAT IN THE
LONG TERM...WITH A MESSY UPPER PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW IN
PLACE...WITH A NUMBER OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. ONE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BE
EMERGING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND WILL BRING
INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO
AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THERE REALLY HASNT
BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE TIMING/PATH OF THIS
DISTURBANCE...BUT THE 12Z RUN OF MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT MORE IN
THE WAY OF QPF. HAVE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE 03-12Z TIME FRAME WED
EVENING...BEFORE SLIDING EAST INTO THURSDAY. TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK
COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENT...AND HAVE
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA...WITH LESS THAN 1 INCH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF. DECIDED TO
INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF FZDZ IN THE LATTER PART OF THE
EVENT...WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING THE MID LEVELS STARTING TO DRY OUT
BEFORE PRECIP COMES TO AN END WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE SYSTEM.
THINK THAT SNOW WILL BE PRIMARY WX TYPE...BUT CANT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT SOME FZDZ. THANKFULLY...WITH WHAT SNOW DOES FALL...A WEAKER
SURFACE PATTERN IN PLACE WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE...GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH.

LOOKING TO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND...THE
FORECAST REMAINS DRY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT MESSY ZONAL UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION WITH OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH. THEY ALSO SHOW THE BETTER PRECIP POTENTIAL SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTH OF THE CWA WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY...AND
LITTLE HAPPENING WITH ANOTHER THAT PASSES DURING THE WEEKEND.

ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARRIVE AS WE GET INTO MONDAY...WITH
A STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVING SE OUT OF WRN CANADA INTO THE NRN
ROCKIES AND NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS. PLENTY OF TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO POPS ARE LOW.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO THROUGH THE PERIOD...NOT EXPECTING ANY
NOTABLE SWINGS EITHER WAY.  STARTS OUT NEAR AVERAGE IN THE 30S FOR
THURSDAY...WITH MORE 40S WORKING THEIR WAY INTO THE CWA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND LINGERING INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 504 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS SLOWLY
TRANSITIONING TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. MVFR CIGS IN STRATUS LOOK
TO HOLD THRU THE NIGHT WITH INDICATIONS THAT THE MVFR CIGS MAY BE
REPLACED WITH VFR CIGS DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...FAY


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