Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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321
FXUS63 KGID 280853
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
353 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 349 AM CDT Sun Aug 28 2016

The pattern aloft featured southwest flow across the Central Plains
ahead of a closed low pressure system in Arizona. The main
westerlies were oriented across the northern tier states. For the
most part the weather is looking fairly quiet with warm summer
temperatures in the 80s to around 90 degrees expected this
afternoon, and conditions will also be more humid with dewpoints in
the middle and upper 60s. Models are not consistent in whether or
not we will see convection and vary in timing and placement of any
potential activity and have only went with low pops through the
next 24 hours. There is some chance for ongoing convection in
Kansas to work northeast, while additional development cannot be
ruled out later today into tonight ahead of the slow moving wave
in the desert southwest.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Primary forecast concern continues to lie with precipitation
forecast. Overall confidence in those chances remains low.

An unsettled weather pattern remains possible across the region
through the entire long term period. Hard to go into a lot of
details with so many differences between models. Starting out Monday
morning, weak flow aloft is expected to be in place, as high
pressure sits over the east-southeastern CONUS, while a weak area of
low pressure is located over the desert southwest. Through the first
half of the work week, that southwestern upper low continues to
fill, becoming more phased in with high pressure working to
reestablish itself over the south central CONUS. By 12Z Wednesday,
the ridging has become more amplified, set up between areas of low
pressure near the Pac NW and Hudson Bay areas. Models continue to
show the potential for shortwave disturbances to affect the region,
and if you were wanting a dry forecast you`d want to see warm mid
level temps to help keep things capped, but models are keeping those
temps cool (<10C at 700mb). Though the overall strength of these
periodic disturbances are on the weak side, they will bring the
chance for precip to the CWA. Confidence in timing/location remains
low, the GFS still is more generous with PoPs/QPF, compared to the
ECMWF which dries a few periods out. Because of these differences,
hard to go too high with forecast PoPs. Most periods are 20-30%,
with some 40% chances in there during the Tue-Wed time frame. At
this point, shear/instability parameters suggest severe weather
looks unlikely through at least Wed.

At the surface, for much of the long term period, winds look to
generally be southerly, as areas of high pressure are shown by
models to slide southeast out of central Can into the Great Lakes
region. Speeds through at least midweek top out around 10-15 MPH. As
far as temperatures go, plenty of uncertainty there as well, as the
precip chances/sky cover tied to these upper level disturbances will
be playing a role. Lower/mid 80s are currently forecast for the
majority of the long term period, with overnight lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Have kept conditions are vfr through the taf period. There is an
outside chance KEAR may see some convection in the evening but
chances are not great enough to include in taf just yet. Could see
a period of steady/gusty south winds this afternoon as gradient
tightens and mixing deepens.

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fay
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...Fay



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