Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 160536

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1236 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

The main forecast concern in the short term is low temperatures
tonight. Think it will be kinda tricky tonight. Tracked along with
some of the cooler guidance which gave temperatures between 31 and
37 degrees across south central Nebraska and north central Kansas.
We are only issuing Frost/Freeze Advisories/Warnings for north
central Kansas, so with temps between 33 and 37 and decided to
issue for these areas.

Otherwise, Monday will be a pleasant Fall day with highs in the
70s with southwesterly winds.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

The remainder of the work week is quiet with weak upper level
flow. At the surface, winds will be from the south to southwest
through much of the work week. Highs are expected in the 70s with
lows slowly warming through the week from the 30s to the 50s by
Friday morning.

A fairly potent upper wave will be approaching the Central Plains
for the weekend, with a cold front expected to move through the
area early Saturday. There are discrepancies in the timing of the
passage of the upper low over the Plains which could change the
frontal timing slightly. There is a chance for precipitation along
this front for Saturday into Saturday night.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Tuesday)
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

General overview:
Extremely high confidence in VFR ceiling/visibility, zero chance
of precip and only limited high level cloud cover (mainly during
the latter half). Gusty south-southwest winds during the
afternoon will be the main issue...more details follow.

Compared to previous TAF issuance, have boosted afternoon wind
speeds several knots. Very light speeds this morning will
gradually pick up mid-late morning, and then for most of the
17-23Z time frame expect sustained around 15kt/gusts around 23kt
before easing back down to average around 10kt Monday evening.
There are hints of some marginally-mentionable low level wind
shear (LLWS) mainly around/after 03Z, but because this is so late
in the current valid period will defer to the next TAF issuance
to take a closer look.


KS...Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ005>007-



SHORT TERM...Billings Wright
LONG TERM...Billings Wright
AVIATION...Pfannkuch is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.