Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 171655
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1155 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

COOLER WEATHER WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TODAY WITH A GUSTY
NORTHWEST WIND. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CLOUDS TODAY
WITH AN EXTENSIVE SHIELD OF LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN
NEBRASKA INTO CANADA AS OF 330 AM.

THESE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLIDING TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND HAVE ENTERED OUR NORTHERN MOST FORECAST ZONES.
FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE MAXIMUM EXTENT
OF THE LOW CLOUDS TAKING PLACE AROUND SUNRISE WITH THE SOUTHWARD
PUSH STALLING AROUND THAT TIME AS THE CLOUDS THEN BEGIN TO BREAK
UP AND RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST. IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY AT THIS
TIME WHETHER OR NOT THE LOW CLOUDS WILL REACH GRAND ISLAND...AS
MOST FORECAST MODELS WOULD INDICATE THAT THEY HOLD JUST NORTH OF
GRAND ISLAND EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE RETREATING NORTHEAST BY MID
MORNING. CLOUD COVER DURING AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES MAY MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR HIGHS TO GET MUCH ABOVE
THE LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...AMPLE SUNSHINE ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES
SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. AFTERNOON
MIXING WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTEST.

TONIGHT...THE WIND WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF AS WE LOSE DIURNAL MIXING
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. AN AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD BE CENTERED
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING RESULTING IN AN IDEAL
SET UP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES UNDER A COOL DRY HIGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FROSTY NIGHT
FOR MANY AREAS. WE HAVE ALREADY HAD WIDESPREAD SUB-FREEZING
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AND THUS FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ARE NO
LONGER BEING ISSUED BY OUR OFFICE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FALL MONTHS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

OVERALL...THE LONG TERM IS RATHER QUIET. MAIN ITEMS OF INTEREST TO
NOTE WILL BE THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEYOND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL ABOUT MID NEXT WEEK.

THE PATTERN ALOFT FOR THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE DOMINATED BY
RIDGING...WHILE TROUGHING CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS
PATTERN WILL HOLD STEADY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAY AS WE MISS OUT ON
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. WE WILL ALSO
MISS OUT ON SOME OF THE COLDER AIR MASSES FROM THE NORTH AS
TROUGHING CONTINUES EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA.

SATURDAY IS FORECAST TO BE OUR COOLEST DAY DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIODS...BUT OVERALL THIS IS OUR CLOSEST DAY TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SATURDAY AFTERNOON SKY CONDITIONS WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH SOUTHERLY WIND SPEEDS AT 5 TO 10 MPH. SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WE BOUNCE BACK INTO THE 70S FOR HIGHS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. WIND CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY EXCEPT WE WILL
HAVE MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT. WITH ALL THAT BEING
SAID...THIS WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE RATHER NICE FOR MID OCTOBER. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS
RANGING BETWEEN THE MID 60S AND LOWER 70S...WHILE LOWS RANGE MOSTLY
FROM THE LOWER 40S TO UPPER 40S.

OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE VERY LIMITED AT THE
MOMENT...ONE CANNOT RULE OUT A COUPLE ROARS OF THUNDER. HOWEVER...IF
ANY PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR...IT WILL MOST LIKELY COME IN THE FORM
OF RAIN SHOWERS. INSTABILITY IS RATHER LOW...WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE
HUNDRED J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AROUND THE AREA. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT ANY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD POTENTIALLY HAVE DECENT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BASED ON PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECAST FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING PRECIPITABLE WATER IN
THE RANGE OF ROUGHLY 1.00 TO 1.25 INCHES. BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FROM
1948 TO 2013...THIS WOULD PRODUCE VALUES AT LEAST 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER. THAT BEING SAID...THIS IS
SEVERAL DAYS OUT SO LETS SEE WHAT TYPE OF CONSISTENCY DEVELOPS OF
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIODS. GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ON
TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT
THRU SATURDAY MORNING AND SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...GUERRERO
AVIATION...FAY


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