Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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777
FXUS63 KGID 051734
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1134 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE TODAY.

THE LONG-EXPECTED WEAK WAVE IS COMING TODAY...AND RADAR REVEALS THAT
ANY SNOW TO THE WEST IS WEAK...AND MOST SHORT-TERM MODELS INDICATE
THAT SNOW WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. THIS SYSTEM IS
WEAK...BUT THERE IS SATURATION WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
LAYER...SO I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF MOST PEOPLE SEE A FEW
FLURRIES. THE WAVE SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH EAST AFTER 00Z SATURDAY THAT
ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. FOR HIGHS...WENT WITH
BCCONSRAW AND ADJUSTED DOWN A FEW DEGREES ACCORDING TO WHAT HAPPENED
FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY...AS TEMPERATURES WERE LIMITED DUE TO THE
HEAVY SNOW COVER. HARD FOR ME TO IMAGINE GOING MUCH WARMER THAN
MID30S FOR HIGHS...GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDY SKY AND CONTINUED SNOW
COVER...DESPITE 850 MB TEMPERATURES BEING A FEW DEGREES C WARMER
THAN THURSDAY. FOR LOW TEMPERATURES...I STARTED WITH BCALLBLEND AND
ADJUSTED DOWN A FEW DEGREES...AGAIN...BASED ON WHAT HAS HAPPENED
RECENTLY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE LONG TERM LIE WITH
TEMPERATURES...AND BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN/MON.

LOOKING TO THE START OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA...AS THE CWA SITS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT WITH THE PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING. THE AXIS OF THIS RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...BEFORE SHIFTING
E/SE AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
NRN ROCKIES INTO ND. AT THE SFC...THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
WINDS OUT OF THE W/SW THROUGH THE DAY...SITTING BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE PAC NW SE INTO THE SRN PLAINS...AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER SRN CANADA. SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED. THE BIG QUESTION MARK FOR SATURDAY LIES WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A THERMAL RIDGE
AXIS ALSO PUSHING E/SE ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY...WITH 850MB
TEMPS TOPPING OUT ROUGHLY IN THE 5-8C ABOVE ZERO RANGE. ON AN
AVERAGE DAY...THIS COMBINED WITH THOSE DOWNSLOPING WRLY WINDS WOULD
GIVE CONFIDENCE IN WARMING TEMPS UP. BUT UNFORTUNATELY WE ARE
DEALING WITH MOST OF THE CWA HAVING SEVERAL /IN MANY CASES OVER 10/
INCHES OF SNOW COVER. THIS THROWS A BIG WRENCH IN THINGS...AND
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AT ALL THAT THE MIXING POTENTIAL INTO THOSE
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT WOULD BE REALIZED. WHILE FORECAST HIGHS ARE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN FOR FRIDAY...BECAUSE OF THAT SNOW COVER AND LOWER
CONFIDENCE...KEPT TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE OF THINGS. CURRENT FORECAST
HIGHS FOR SAT ARE IN THE UPPER 30S/NEAR 40...ADMITTEDLY LOWER THAN
SOME MODELS/GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THINGS ARE DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY THAT
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE DAKOTAS ON SATURDAY. MODELS
ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THIS SYSTEM WORKING ITS WAY
INTO MN SUNDAY MORNING...THEN DIGGING MORE SOUTH THROUGH THE WRN
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MIDWEST BY MONDAY EVENING. AS FAR AS
PRECIPITATION GOES...THE BRUNT OF THE LIFT AND THUS BETTER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE CWA. NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA COULD
GET CLIPPED WITH SOME FLURRIES/LIGHT SN...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ITS
OCCURRENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO INSERT A MENTION IN
THE FORECAST...BUT WILL SOMETHING FOR UPCOMING SHIFTS TO CONSIDER.
AT THIS POINT THE BIGGEST IMPACT THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE ON THE
CWA IS WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS...BOTH SUN AND MON. A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN
MORNING...USHERING IN A SWITCH TO NWRLY WINDS. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT...COLDER AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT AND A CORRIDOR OF
STRONGER WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH
OF A LET UP AS WE GET INTO MONDAY...PERHAPS A FEW MPH LOWER...BUT
STILL NOT THE NICEST OF DAYS. HIGHS BOTH DAYS ARE IN THE 30S FOR
MOST...EXCEPTION MAY BE IN THE SERN CORNER GETTING TO 40-ISH ON
SUNDAY.

AS WE GET INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK...THE FORECAST
REMAINS DRY...WITH MODELS REMAINING IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
SHARPER NWRLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE PLAINS. THE CWA
LOOKS TO BE IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN THE COLDEST AIR TO THE
EAST AND WARMER AIR TO THE WEST...BUT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED. CURRENTLY HAVE HIGHS EVENTUALLY IN THE 40S CWA-WIDE...BUT
AS STATED ABOVE REGARDING SATURDAYS HIGHS...TEMPS ARE GOING TO BE
DEPENDENT ON THE REMAINING SNOW COVER ACROSS THE AREA...SO HARD TO
HAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

SNOW APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE TERMINALS LATE THIS
MORNING. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE FLURRY OF SNOW BRIEFLY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT. A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE AREA AND CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY RAISE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AND BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...JCB



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