Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 190953
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
353 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

A BROAD FETCH OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM THE
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS BEFORE
TURNING TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST STATES
EARLY THIS MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT HAD PUSHED
THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING.

MODEL 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURE FIELDS SHOW SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR
SPREADING SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT. IT APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE
COOLER AIR WILL IMPACT EASTERN KANSAS WITH WESTERN KANSAS ONLY
GETTING A GLANCING BLOW. EVEN THOUGH, HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN HIGHS ON
TUESDAY. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S. FARTHER SOUTHWEST, HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE DAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES INTO WESTERN KANSAS. A QUIET NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

SURFACE PRESSURES WILL DROP IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY
THURSDAY AS THE COLD GREAT LAKES UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES INTO THE
NORTHEAST, AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL UNITED STATES. HOWEVER, THE MAIN SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, WITH A WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUBBLE STILL PRESENT ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS
FEATURE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING
SIGNIFICANTLY, WITH HIGHS STILL ONLY IN THE 40S THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 20S. BY LATER FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY, A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
AND THEN ACROSS TEXAS. THIS FEATURE WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH AND TOO
PROGRESSIVE TO BRING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO WESTERN KANSAS,
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. SURFACE PRESSURES WILL LOWER ENOUGH BY SATURDAY TO
DISLODGE THE AFOREMENTIONED, WEAK SURFACE HIGH OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL INTO THE 50S FOR
HIGHS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST BY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALONG WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, WHICH WILL
LEAD TO COOLER HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S THEN MID TO HIGH 40S FROM
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE AND
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS UNCERTAIN AFTER TUESDAY; BUT THE GEM/ECMWF
INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES ALONG
WITH ARCTIC AIR MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS. IF THIS IS
CORRECT, THEN THERE COULD BE COLDER TEMPERATURES AND SOME WINTER
WEATHER BY THANKSGIVING DAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE TAF SITES IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY IN THIS PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD
STAY AT AROUND 10 KNOTS OR SO THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON AND BECOME SOUTHERLY. SCATTERED
TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER
THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  50  23  47  26 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  49  20  47  23 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  49  23  47  25 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  51  20  46  23 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  45  20  46  24 /   0   0   0  10
P28  47  24  48  32 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...GERARD



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