Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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159
FXUS63 KDDC 180650
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
150 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 148 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

Precip chances will shift south and east today as an upper level
shortwave slides southeast across the Upper Midwest, sending an
attendant cold front across western Kansas early to mid afternoon.
While drier air filters into far western Kansas behind the front,
ample moisture will remain ahead of the advancing boundary within a
prevailing southeasterly flow. Significant instability, steep low
level lapse rates, and increased convergence in the vicinity of the
front will support thunderstorm development late this afternoon and
evening...primarily across south central Kansas. Considering the
presence of a +70kt upper level jet, favorable shear profiles, and
CAPE values in excess of 3000 to 3500 J/kg, any developing storms
will certainly have the potential of becoming severe with large hail
and damaging winds the main threats. Otherwise, quieter conditions
are likely across the remainder of western Kansas as drier air
filters into the region behind the front.

Fairly warm temperatures are expected today as an approaching cold
front is slow to push through western Kansas. A southwest and
eventually a westerly downslope flow will set up across southwest
Kansas drawing warmer air into the area. Should expect to see highs
reaching the lower to mid 90s(F) this afternoon. Look for lows back
down into the 60s(F) tonight under mostly clear skies.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 103 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

The weekend appears to be mainly dry, except an isolated storm. The
specifics of this are unknown at this time and the fb pops are good
for now. Highs will continue in the 90s with lows mainly in the 60s
to 70s.

The long term models show a continued dry and warm pattern prevailing
for much of the extended period. Storm coverage looks fairly isolated.
The fb pops and temps grids look like a good solution at this time,
given the always present uncertainty that exists in weakly forced
convective regimes across southwest Kansas during late Summer and in
the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

Scattered thunderstorms will move east-southeast out of southwest
into central Kansas through daybreak potentially resulting in brief
MVFR conditions at KHYS and KDDC. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
prevail at all TAF sites through Friday evening. Light southeasterly
winds will persist across western Kansas overnight as a weak lee
side trough remains anchored across eastern Colorado. Winds are
then expected to become more south to southwesterly 10 to 20kt
after daybreak this morning as the lee side trough begins to edge
into western Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  66  94  65  95 /  40  20   0   0
GCK  63  92  64  94 /  20  10   0  10
EHA  62  92  63  93 /  30  10   0  10
LBL  64  95  65  95 /  30  10  10  10
HYS  64  92  63  95 /  30  10   0   0
P28  68  95  68  96 /  30  30  20   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...JJohnson



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