Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 171126
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
626 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 438 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

A broad area of weak low surface pressure will extend from the
panhandles into northeast Kansas this morning, and gradually become
displaced southward by the leading edge of a surface high that will
move into eastern Colorado by Sunday. This morning starts off with
very warm upper 60s and low 70s, light southwest downslope surface
flow turning more west-northwest with more pronounced downslope
through the morning. Most guidance and raw model output supports
high approaching if not reaching/exceeding 100 degrees, except for
the far north around Hays where mid 90s is still likely. Hot
temperatures along the OK/KS line should reach around 105 degrees.
Surface dew points should be dropping in the west in the afternoon
before elevated dewpoints in the 50s surge back south ahead of the
cold front between 00 and 03 UTC. The convective allowing models
HRRR/ARW/NMM showed indication of discreet cells forming it the warm
air near the edge of the cap and the KS/CO line, suggesting a 2-3
hour window for possible severe storms. There will be nearly 2000
J/kg CAPE and 40 kt`s 0-6 bulk shear to work with ahead of the
front. NMM for example was producing 40 knot sustained convective
outflow wind speeds with a large cluster. Hail threat possible early
and briefly, with discreet storms where LHP is above 8, for up to
baseball size, before storms become numerous and more likely a
damaging wind gusts and heavy rain threat. Seemingly strong Cap with
15 to 17 degrees C at 700 mb to contend with in the southwest, but
decent surface forcing with the front, so seems reasonable for
SPC`s marginal risk and probable limited areal coverage.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 438 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Surface high pressure settles over the Central High Plains region by
Sunday, and expands across the entire great plains. ECMWF is quick
with moisture return and 60`s F surface dew points by Tuesday, as
the warming trend returns across the central and southern High
Plains through the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. A weak
surface low pressure trough will bring variable winds to the terminals
today. A strong cold front is expected to move south across the area
by early evening. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
along and behind the front. Will carry VCTS at most terminals for
now to account for this.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 101  62  82  60 /  10  30   0   0
GCK 102  61  82  59 /  20  30   0   0
EHA 102  61  83  60 /   0  10   0  10
LBL 104  64  83  61 /   0  20   0  10
HYS  98  61  80  58 /  10  40   0   0
P28 103  65  84  61 /  10  40  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Gerard



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