Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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000
FXUS63 KDDC 211702
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1202 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

...Updated for the aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

An upper level low will continue to slowly move eastward today
through tonight with a large upper level high centered over the
southeast United States. Mid levels of the atmosphere become more
saturated as today progresses with increased cloudiness expected
this evening into the overnight period. A trough of low pressure
will be observed at the surface, extending from northwest Kansas
back into southeast Colorado. Meanwhile, a dome of high pressure
will be located across the southeast United States. These features
will allow south to southwest winds to be felt today through tonight
with breezy conditions likely this afternoon as the atmosphere
mixes. During peak heating, a few thunderstorms may form ahead of
the aforementioned trough. Severe storms are not expected, but with
such a wide T/Td separation, a few storms may be capable of
producing strong winds up to 55 mph. Any storms that do form should
move eastward this evening then move out of or dissipate by or
around midnight. Highs today are forecasted to reach into the mid to
upper 90s with around 100 degrees across the KS/OK border. Lows
tonight are expected to range from the upper 60s across the KS/CO
border to the mid 70s across south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

A southwesterly flow will persist across the Central Plains
through the weekend period into early next week as an upper ridge
axis remains nearly stationary from the lower Mississippi Valley
to the Western Great Lakes Region. All the models are in decent
agreement with an upper low, located just off the coast of
southern California at 00z Thursday, weakening as it approaches
the central Rockies late week and early this weekend. Cloud cover
and precipitation chances will improve as tropical moisture
increases ahead of this approaching upper level system so will
retain higher chances across west central and north central Kansas
Friday night given the timing of this weakening upper system and
location of a surface boundary. Precipitation chances will then
continue from late this weekend through early next week as another
upper level trough approaches the area from the west and a cold
front drops south into western Kansas.

Temperatures around 100 degree on Friday still looks on track
based on the 850mb to 700mb temperature trends from the ECMWF,
NAM, and GFS. Temperatures will be slightly cooler over the
weekend period given the increase in tropical moisture and
slightly cooler temperatures in the 850mb to 700mb level at 00z
Sunday and 00z Monday. Temperatures will fall back to more
seasonal levels early next week as the cold front moves south into
portions of western Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

Flight conditions will remain VFR through the next 24 hours.  A
surface trough was edging east through western Kansas, and may
trigger a few late day thunderstorms. The chance at any one TAF
site is very small, and thus thunderstorms will not be included
into the forecasts.  Winds will blow from the southwest at 13g21kt
this afternoon, and drop to the south at around 10 kts after 03Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  99  73  99  73 /  20  20  20  20
GCK  98  71  98  70 /  20  20  20  30
EHA  97  70  97  70 /  20  20  20  30
LBL  99  72  99  73 /  20  20  20  20
HYS 100  73  99  73 /  20  20  20  30
P28 100  76 100  77 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burke





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