Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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068
FXUS63 KDDC 212340
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
640 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

South winds will continue to ramp up this afternoon, in response
to strong cyclogenesis east of Denver. Wind gusts near 40 mph are
expected through sunset. Unseasonably hot temperatures in the 90s
will again contribute to low relative humidity and an enhanced
risk for wildfire spread. Strong dryline with respectable
convergence will continue to sharpen through the late afternoon
along the eastern zones. Ample instability exists along this
boundary (CAPE upwards of 3000 J/kg), and lapse rates are steep as
the EML overspreads the moisture axis. Can`t rule out an isolated
thunderstorm in the SE zones, most likely in the vicinity of
Barber county, but the odds of initiation are low. Kept grids dry
with pops < 15%. Should a storm develop, strong to severe
downbursts would be the primary threat for a few hours, before
convergence is lost on the retreating dryline this evening.

Tonight...windy and unseasonably warm. South winds will remain
elevated and gusty all night, averaging 15-25 mph, in response to
a strong low level jet. With 12z NAM forecasting 850 mb winds of
55-60 kts, gustiness will prevail through sunrise. With the winds
preventing mixing, and moisture advection increasing from the
S/SE, temperatures tonight/Friday morning will be warm and way
above normal for the first day of fall. Forecasting temperatures
to hold in the 70-73 range along and east of US 283 (normal is
lower 50s). In fact, the record warmest low temperature on record
for Dodge City for Sept 22nd is 69, set just last year in 2016.
A very balmy way to start autumn.

Friday...Continued windy and unseasonably warm. No change in the
synoptic pattern, with leeside cyclogenesis again inducing strong
south winds of 20-30 mph with higher gusts. Temperatures at 850 mb
do inch back about 2C, so forecasting lower to mid 90s as opposed
to upper 90s. Also, increased boundary layer dewpoints will help
hold temperatures down somewhat. With the lee trough/dryline and
its associated convergence situated further west near the CO/KS
border, this is where is any convective initiation will be favored
late Friday. Pop grids through 7 pm are relegated to areas along
and west of US 83, which line up with SPC`s marginal 5% wind/hail
probability from the Day 2 outlook.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Medium range models including the 12z runs of GFS/ECMWF show great
continuity from run to run, showing a highly meridional synoptic
pattern slowly inching eastward this weekend through Monday.
Forecast builder model blends, 12z MEX guidance and 12z ECMWF all
agree with each other, and their previous runs, that the best
opportunity for sorely needed rainfall in SW KS will be during the
Sunday through Monday timeframe.

Saturday...Great Basin upper low only makes it to near Las Vegas
by late day. As such, the best forcing for convection will remain
focused along the CO/KS border vicinity. Pop grids increase with
westward extent, with likely category justified roughly west of a
Garden City-Liberal line. CAPE/shear and forcing will support some
strong to marginally severe wind/hail across the western zones.

Sunday and Monday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected,
with at least some areas receiving beneficial rainfall. Upper low
in southern Utah Sunday morning slowly ejects NE to be near Rapid
City by late Monday. Associated frontal boundary and convergence
will edge slowly eastward across SW KS during this period, with
several rounds of showers and storms expected. Likely pops offered
by the model blend are warranted, but it does not appear to be a
washout scenario either. Storm total QPF grids came up with a
general 1-2 inches across SW KS, with higher amounts focused west
of US 283, where forcing will be better defined.

Temperatures will be on a noticeable cooling trend Saturday
through Monday, as heights and thickness continue to lower, and
clouds and rainfall help hold temperatures down.

Tuesday...Rain chances will be drying up, as surface high builds
into the central plains. Crisp autumn temperatures will prevail
Tuesday and Wednesday, with afternoon readings holding near 70,
and lows dropping into the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

VFR conditions will prevail through this TAF period. Surface winds
will diminish somewhat with sunset. Low level wind shear will develop
this evening at all the terminals and continue through the night.
Increasingly gusty winds will redevelop on Friday as 30-35 knot winds
mix down to the surface.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Red flag warning remains in effect along and west of US 283 this
afternoon and early evening. South winds will increase sharply
this afternoon, averaging 20-30 mph with gusts near 40 mph.
Dry intrusion from the west today is more marginal compared to
Tuesday. Regardless, unseasonably hot afternoon temperatures well
into the 90s will drive min RH into the 15-20% range through early
evening. Expecting critical wind/RH west of the dryline this
afternoon. South winds will remain elevated and gusty overnight.
Strong south winds will continue on Friday, but increased boundary
layer moisture on Friday will keep min RH well above critical
levels (30-35%).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  92  69  86 /  10  10  10  20
GCK  66  92  67  83 /   0  10  20  50
EHA  61  88  59  79 /   0  30  40  60
LBL  65  91  67  83 /  10  10  30  40
HYS  73  93  70  87 /  10   0  10  20
P28  72  92  70  89 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for
KSZ030-043>045-061>064-074>078-084>088.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Gerard
FIRE WEATHER...Turner



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