Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 281103
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
603 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY INTO TOMORROW WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. MEANWHILE, A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY THEN SHIFT CLOSER TO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING. MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE ON THE RISE AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO ALLOW
EVEN FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THE LEE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS DUE TO ATMOSPHERIC MIXING. HIGHS TODAY
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH LOWS AROUND
60 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT EXITS THE ROCKIES AND MOVES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM APPROACHES WESTERN KANSAS EARLY MONDAY A SURFACE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS BY LATE DAY AS GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 25
TO 30 MPH RANGE. USING THE 00Z NAM AS A GUIDE IT CURRENTLY APPEARS
THE SURFACE TROUGH, BETTER INSTABILITY, AND 0-6KM SHEAR FROM 21Z
TO 03Z WILL BE NEAR OR WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. CONVECTION
THEN SPREADS EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST. A FEW
STORMS EARLY IN THE EVENT NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER STILL APPEARS
TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE GIVEN THE CAPE AND 0-6KM SHEAR
VALUES AT 00Z TUESDAY WITH STRONG WINDS AND MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL
BEING THE MAIN HAZARD.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO
NEBRASKA. A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON IS
FORECAST TO BE LOCATED FROM ROUGHLY HAYS TO MEADE WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STILL PRESENT EAST OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY. BY LATE
TUESDAY CAPE VALUES CLIMB TO NEAR 1500 J/KG OR GREATER NEAR AND
EAST OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 40
KNOTS. IN ADDITION 850MB THTA-E ADVECTION IMPROVES NEAR THE NOSE
OF AN 850MB JET IN OR NEAR NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY EVENING.
AT THIS TIME THE NAM AND GFS DIFFER SOME ON WHERE THIS AXIS OF
BETTER INSTABILITY AND FORCING WILL BE LATE TUESDAY WITH THE NAM
FURTHER WEST. AS A RESULT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON WHERE THIS
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED TUESDAY NIGHT SO WILL STAY
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH APPEARS TO BE A NICE
CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES MID WEEK. AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS
THIS NEXT SYSTEM CROSSES THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. IN ADDITION TO ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SOME COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED LATE WEEK.
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY CURRENTLY
APPEARS TO BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 601 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

06Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AND LATEST HRRR INDICATING THE CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED CLOUDS IN THE 4000 TO 8000FT AGL LEVEL TODAY. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE MORNING INTO THE 15 TO NEAR
20 KNOT RANGE. THE STRONGER WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE AT GCK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  84  60  84  59 /   0   0   0  50
GCK  83  60  83  57 /   0   0  20  70
EHA  81  59  82  56 /   0   0  50  60
LBL  84  60  84  59 /   0   0  20  70
HYS  84  60  84  60 /   0   0  10  60
P28  86  61  87  63 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT



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