Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 210815

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
215 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2018


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 207 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

Precip chances pick up later this afternoon as a strong upper level
trough of low pressure moves east across the Central and Southern
Rockies into the Western High Plains early in the period. As the
southwest flow aloft across the Western High Plains intensifies
ahead of the approaching system, sufficient lift associated with a
stalled frontal boundary stretched across southwest into central
Kansas may provide a focus for potential light drizzle/fog
development toward daybreak this morning. Latest observations across
northwest and north central Kansas are already beginning to indicate
low level stratus/fog development north of the frontal boundary.

Short range models indicate the upper level low deepning as it
pushes eastward across the high plains of western Kansas. In
response, surface low pressure across southeast Colorado and
Northeast New Mexico will strengthen as it shifts east-northeast
into eastern Kansas through late Sunday night creating an extremely
tight pressure gradient across western Kansas. Meanwhile, snow
development is likely across more northern portions of western
Kansas late this afternoon into Sunday night in an axis of post-
frontal H7 frontogentic forcing. Considering the projected track
of this system, the highest impact of snow and blowing snow will
be felt across west central into central Kansas near and along the
I-70 corridor. QPF signals suggest upward of 1 to 3 inches of
snow possible across the area in question with locally higher
amounts not out of the question. Exceptionally strong north winds
will create hazardous conditions due to blowing snow leading to
reduced visibility and drifting across east-west roads and

Colder air surging southward into far western Kansas behind a
stalled frontal boundary will result in highs only reaching the
30s(F) in west central Kansas this afternoon. Highs in the 40s(F)
and the 50s(F) are likely further southeast ahead of the boundary.
Look for lows down into the 20s(F) tonight as colder air spreads
southward into western Kansas behind a cold front advancing
across the region.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 111 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

The storm system will be exiting the area early Monday.
Significant winds are expected in the wake of the system. Will
have to watch out for the potential of reaching high wind warning
criteria, but right now it does not look like to be a slam dunk.
Regardless, N to NW winds of 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph is
possible with blowing snow, especially within the advisory area.
The synoptic system does have rather significant cold air
associated with it, so higher snow ratios with a lighter/fluffy
snow appears reasonable attm.

Beyond Monday, winds will weaken Tuesday as high pressure moves
across the area. Right now, the temperatures across the northwest
zones are probably too warm. This is particularly true if the 1-3"
forecast snow amounts are realized. Elsewhere, 40s are expected.
The overall synoptic pattern Wednesday onwards is a dry pattern
per the EC. A large amplitude trof is possible next Friday.
however, this system might remain north of the forecast area.
Temperatures ahead of this wave look rather warm with widespread
50s likely.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1127 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

Low level stratus is expected to develop behind a frontal boundary
as it begins to shift slowly southward across western Kansas
overnight. IFR cigs are expected to develop in the vicinity of
KHYS initially, then spread southward to KGCK and KDDC toward
daybreak. KLBL may see IFR cigs generally after 12Z. Additionally,
light drizzle and areas of fog are expected to develop behind the
front increasing the potential for IFR vsbys in the vicinity of
KHYS, KGCK, and KDDC early Sunday morning. Variable winds 5 to
15kt will persist across southwest and portions of central Kansas
through late Sunday morning as the aforementioned frontal boundary
extending from southwest Kansas into northeast Kansas moves slowly
southward during the period.


DDC  49  24  45  22 /  40  40  20   0
GCK  38  23  43  20 /  70  70  10   0
EHA  46  21  47  21 /  60  30   0   0
LBL  51  24  48  20 /  30  40   0   0
HYS  40  26  39  21 /  70  80  50   0
P28  58  29  47  24 /  10  10  10   0


Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ this morning to
6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Monday for KSZ030-031-043>045-061>063.



LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...JJohnson is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.