Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 221703
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1203 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Any remnant precip chances across central Kansas early this morning
will quickly dissipate by late morning as an upper level shortwave
kicks east out of the Central Plains while drier air in the lower
levels filters southward into western Kansas. Meanwhile, upper
level ridging moving ashore off the Pacific will push eastward
across the Intermountain West later today setting up a drier
pattern that will finish out the weekend. Although surface high
pressure dipping southward across the high plains of western
Kansas will reinforce a cooler air mass across the region today,
clearing skies should allow temperatures to climb a bit from
yesterday with highs well up into the 50s(F) to near 60F this
afternoon. Clearing skies and light and variable winds will allow
temperatures to drop Saturday night with lows easily falling into
the 30s(F). Near freezing temperatures may be possible further
west near the Colorado border, especially in low lying areas.
Areas of frost will certainly be a concern considering the onset
of the growing season.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 122 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

A drier period will persist across western Kansas through early next
week as upper level ridging moves eastward across the Western High
Plains into the Central Plains. A lack of instability and a weaker
flow aloft will keep precip chances out of the forecast Sunday. The
drier trend will continue Monday regardless of an upper level
shortwave pushing east across the Northern Plains and sending an
attendant cold front southward into western Kansas by mid to late
afternoon. Precip chances may return Tuesday as a progressive, but
weak upper level shortwave moves across the Rockies into the
Western High Plains. An attendant frontal boundary pushing into
western Kansas and an intensifying upper level jet dropping out of
the Pacific Northwest into the Central Rockies will re-introduce
the chance for showers/thunderstorms to the high plains toward mid
week.

A warming trend will continue Sunday as a prevailing low level
southerly flow draws warmer air up into the high plains with H85
temperatures ranging from around 10C in central Kansas to near 20C
along the Colorado border. Should see highs pushing up into the
lower to mid 70s(F) across southwest and portions of central
Kansas Sunday afternoon. Highs well up into the 80s(F) are likely
Monday afternoon even as a weak cold front begins pushing into
far western Kansas by mid to late afternoon as mentioned earlier.
Slightly cooler air filtering into the high plains behind the
front will halt the warming trend Tuesday with more seasonal highs
expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

VFR conditions at all TAF sites through tomorrow evening as high
pressure builds over western Kansas today. The current mid-level
clouds will dissipate over course of the afternoon. An increased
pressure gradient will cause northerly winds to gust up to 20-25
knots at KDDC and KGCK through 0Z when the surface high pressure
moves southward, and therefore shifts the wind to southerly at
5-10 knots. A gusty 20-30 knot southerly wind picks up again
toward the end of the TAF period.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  58  33  70  50 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  58  32  71  50 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  57  35  73  52 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  58  32  72  50 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  59  35  70  50 /   0   0   0   0
P28  59  35  69  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Reynolds


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