Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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089
FXUS63 KDDC 170005
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
605 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

...updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 1125 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

Short range models indicate weak upper level ridging shifting
eastward across the Central Plains tonight as an upper level trough
begins to push ashore into the Pacific Northwest. Although a
northwest flow aloft across the Western High Plains will intensify
while becoming more westerly tonight, a lack of moisture/instability
will preclude any precip chances across the region through late
Friday afternoon. Much milder temperatures can be expected tonight
under the influence of a prevailing southerly flow across western
Kansas. With moisture advection pushing surface dewpoints well up
into the 40s(F) across all of central Kansas and portions of
southwest Kansas, look for lows only dropping down into the 40s(F)
by early Friday morning with near 50F possible in south central
Kansas where increased cloud cover is likely to develop overnight.
A deepening surface low across the high plains of eastern Colorado
and extreme western Kansas will bring about a more southwest to
westerly downslope flow to southwest Kansas Friday enhancing warm
air advection and pushing H85 temperatures up near 20C. Should see
highs ranging from the mid 70s(F) to the lower/mid 80s(F) Friday
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 100 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

There is an outside shot for precip Friday night as medium range
models show an upper level shortwave trough kicking east across the
Northern and Western High Plains, in turn sending a strong cold
front through western Kansas mid to late evening. A prevailing
westerly downslope flow ahead of the approaching boundary will dry
out the lower levels limiting instability across much of western
Kansas. However, the GFS/ECMWF/GEM show a strong +130kt upper level
jet core downstream of the trough ejecting out of the Central and
Southern Rockies into the high plains in conjunction with the
frontal passage, not to mention significant post-frontal H7
frontogenesis developing briefly across western Kansas. Enough
mid/upper level moisture will exist further to the north to support
the potential for sprinkles or even light rain across portions of
west central and central Kansas late Friday night. A relatively dry
period is then forecast through the early part of next week as a
general westerly flow aloft sets up across the Western High Plains.

Much cooler temperatures are likely Saturday as colder air surges
southward into western Kansas in wake of a recent frontal passage.
Should see highs only up into the 40s(F) in west central Kansas to
the lower to mid 50s(F) in south central Kansas Saturday afternoon.
A modest bounce back in temperatures can be expected Sunday and
Monday as upper level ridging transitions east out of the Intermountain
West into the Central Plains while low level southerlies return to
western Kansas. May see highs back up into the 60s(F) by Monday
afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 545 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

South winds will weaken to generally under 12 knots overnight as
the boundary layer decouples. Low ceilings should develop by late
evening across portions of central into eastern Kansas, however
most model guidance does not favor IFR or even MVFR ceilings for
most of our local terminal locations. The best chance for stratus
development around 1-2 kft will be in the HYS area, where the
SREF output shows about a 30% chance for ceilings under 500 ft
briefly overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 113 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

Surface low pressure will deepen across the high plains of eastern
Colorado and extreme western Kansas Friday creating a tight pressure
gradient across southwest Kansas resulting in gusty southwest winds
by Friday afternoon. This will also bring in drier air across the
area resulting in low relative humidity. Because of this, elevated
fire weather conditions are likely across much of southwest Kansas
Friday afternoon. Outdoor burning is discouraged.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  45  81  39  52 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  42  80  37  50 /   0   0  10   0
EHA  48  80  37  50 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  45  83  38  51 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  45  78  39  50 /   0   0  20   0
P28  50  80  44  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Russell
FIRE WEATHER...JJohnson



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