Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 251809
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
109 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ACTIVE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT OF SEVERE CONVECTION HAS EXITED SOUTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AS STORMS ARE FOLLOWING THE NOSE OF A LOW
LEVEL JET INTO EASTERN KANSAS. BASED ON THIS SETUP, THE MORNING
HOURS LOOK RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS A WEAK
PACIFIC FRONT/TROUGH MOVES INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS BUT IS ENTERING A
FAIRLY WORKED OVER ENVIRONMENT. UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY,
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE QUICKLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS.

ATTENTION NOW SHIFTS TOWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING AS
THE UPPER WAVE PLAGUING THE REGION OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS,
FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. WITH DECENT SOLAR
INSOLATION AND A MOIST AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT/TROUGH, EXPECT
THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE QUICKLY WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 2000
J/KG POSSIBLE BY MID AFTERNOON. COMBINE THIS WITH LITTLE TO NO
INHIBITION VIA LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM THE APPROACHING WAVE, AND
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY BY
EARLY EVENING. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MORE ON THE MARGINAL
SIDE AS SHEAR PROFILES DO NOT SUPPORT SUPERCELLS BUT MORE OF A
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WIND THREAT. WITH THIS BEING STATED, A FEW
STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE AND WIND GUSTS
OF 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

HIGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN REGARD TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND
CONVECTIVE/FLOODING THREATS. LARGE DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODEL OUTPUT
FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EXIST. THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR
STORMS TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING, AS THE NAM IS INDICATING AT
THIS TIME, WITH REGENERATION LATER IN THE DAY AND EVENING. HOWEVER,
THE SHEAR LOOKS WEAK, SUPPORTING MORE OF A HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN
THREAT THAN SUPERCELLS. THE SHEAR INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH HAS LOOKED LIKE A GOOD SEVERE WEATHER DAY FOR A
FEW SHIFTS RUNNING NOW. THE MEAN UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO A TROUGH
ACROSS THE DESERT SW LATE IN THE WEEK, WITH ADDITIONAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DRIFTING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS FORECAST WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD
GIVEN THE FORECAST AREA HAS GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THESE
POTENTIALLY POORLY TIMED/PREDICTABLE FORCING MECHANISMS. A
RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD MAY SETUP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MID LEVEL
RIDGE IS INDICATED BY THE EC/GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE TAF SITES AFTER
21Z AND THROUGH 08Z. IN THE ABSENCE OF UPSLOPE FLOW, IFR/LIFR CIGS
AND VISBYS MAY NOT DEVELOP TONIGHT LIKE THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  78  57  82 /  40  20  20  20
GCK  53  78  55  82 /  40  20  20  30
EHA  53  78  54  82 /  30  20  20  40
LBL  54  79  57  85 /  30  20  20  30
HYS  54  79  56  81 /  40  10  20  30
P28  58  77  60  83 /  30  30  30  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...FINCH


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