Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 291803
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
103 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

A CHALLENGING FORECAST PERIOD LIES AHEAD FOR THE SHORT TERM AS A
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE IN PLACE, AND CHANCES  FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE FORECAST  AT LEAST
UNTIL THE WEEKEND. A WEAK PV ANOMALY/SHORTWAVE SIGNAL IS MOVING
THROUGH THE  CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT,
ENHANCING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PANHANDLES INTO EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS MORNING. THE RELATIVE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
SHEAR, AND WEAK TO MODERATE CAPES SHOULD RELEGATE THE STORM
INTENSITIES  WELL BELOW ANY SEVERE LEVELS. THE RELATIVE LAYER
MOISTURE/PWATS WILL SUPPORT MODERATE OT AT TIMES LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS, AND THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED
AREAS COVERAGE AND AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL  STORMS MAY OCCUR ALONG AN UPSLOPE CONVERGENCE ZONE IN
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN IN RECENT DAYS, AS WELL AS A
SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT INT HE SURFACE DEW POINT MAKING THE APPARENT
TEMPERATURES MORE COMFORTABLE. HIGHS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
SHOULD NOR EXCEED THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND GOING
FORWARD. HOWEVER THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE STILL NOT EXCEEDING
SEASONAL CLIMATOLOGY.  THE SYNOPTIC FLOW SUPPORTS GENERAL; NORTHWEST
SUBSIDENT FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS FROM THE WEEKEND FORWARD AS
THE UPPER HIGH STRENGTHS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. SOUTHWEST KANSAS MAY BECOME SPLIT BETWEEN THE
WEAK FLOW COLORADO DAILY CONVECTION AND THE BETTER SUITED IMPULSE
DRIVEN MCS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

UPSLOPE EAST WINDS AT 6 TO 12 KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS A FRONT REMAINS STALLED OUT TO THE SOUTH OF KANSAS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD, ASIDE FROM ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT KDDC BETWEEN 04 AND 12 UTC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  86  65  91 /  40  30  30  30
GCK  63  86  64  90 /  20  30  30  20
EHA  65  86  65  90 /  40  30  30  30
LBL  66  87  67  90 /  50  30  30  30
HYS  63  86  64  92 /  20  20  20  20
P28  67  88  67  91 /  40  30  30  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...FINCH



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