Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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279
FXUS63 KGLD 080355
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
855 PM MST Wed Dec 7 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 855 PM MST Wed Dec 7 2016

Update to forecast to upgrade Yuma county in NE CO to a WC warning
based on latest obs. Currently -8F in the town of Yuma with winds
around 10 mph giving WC readings of -26F. There doesn`t appear to
be a let up soon so have upgraded from an Advisory there. No
other changes at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 122 PM MST Wed Dec 7 2016

Shortwave trough will continue to move away from the area with
light snow ending this afternoon/early evening. Little if any
additional accumulations are expected. As skies clear tonight and
winds diminish, ideal radiational cooling conditions and fresh
snow pack will allow temperatures to rapidly drop. Expecting sub-
zero low temperatures along and west of a McCook, Nebraska, to
Tribune, Kansas, line, which is also where a wind chill advisory
will be issued as they bottom out around 15 below in the overnight
and early Thursday morning hours.

Thursday will be mostly sunny under slowly rising heights but
continued cold. Afternoon highs will only reach the upper teens to
lower 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 149 PM MST Wed Dec 7 2016

Generally dry weather is forecast for the long term period with a
couple of chances for some light precipitation. Temperatures trend
upwards to start before decreasing next week.

Cold temperatures continue on Thursday night while lee troughing
develops east of the Rockies, shifting northerly surface winds to
the south. Warmer temperatures follow suit as weak upper level
ridging shifts eastward towards the Plains on Friday, keeping the
region dry under northwesterly flow aloft.

A shortwave trough digs into the Pacific Northwest Friday night and
advances towards the area on Saturday. As this disturbance pushes
over the region Saturday night, it sends a cold front across the
High Plains and generates chances for light snow overnight into
Sunday morning. With limited moisture, do not see this amounting to
much. Precipitation chances shift off to the east during the day and
dry conditions return to the forecast by Sunday night. Northwesterly
flow develops on the backside of the disturbance as it heads towards
the Great Lakes region on Monday.

Low pressure moves across Canada on Monday with its associated cold
front sagging south. This next system brings precipitation chances
to region on Tuesday along with cooler temperatures before drying
out again. Will continue to monitor how guidance resolves
discrepancies with this next system as next week draws near.

Temperatures increase at the start of the period, with highs in the
40s to low 50s on Saturday. After this peak in temperatures, a
cooling trend appears to be in store for next week with highs in the
30s across the entire region on Wednesday. The coldest overnight
temperatures are anticipated at the beginning of the long term, with
lows in the single digits and wind chills as low as -10 (which is
above advisory criteria) Thursday night. This is followed by lows
staying in the teens and low 20s thereafter.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 530 PM MST Wed Dec 7 2016

For KGLD...MVFR conditions with bkn025 and -SHSN thru 02z then
VFR for rest of forecast period...w/ mainly SCT high clouds. Winds
NNW around 10kts thru 22z Thursday...then SW around 10kts.

For KMCK...VFR conditions with bkn050 giving way to SKC-FEW250.
SHSN thru 01z. Winds WNW around 10kts.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Wind Chill Advisory until 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ Thursday for
     KSZ001>003-013-014-027-028-041-042.

CO...Wind Chill Advisory until 8 AM MST Thursday for COZ091-092.

     Wind Chill Warning until 8 AM MST Thursday for COZ090.

NE...Wind Chill Advisory until 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ Thursday for
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...JN



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