Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 272009
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
209 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST
BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A WIND SHIFT THAT MOVES THROUGH
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE WIND SHIFT
MOVES THROUGH NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY AT SPEEDS AROUND
10 MPH OR SO. CANT REALLY CALL IT A COLD FRONT AS 850MB
TEMPERATURES PER NAM/GFS/UKMET INCREASE ANYWHERE FROM 3F-7F
COMPARED TO TODAYS VALUES. THIS ALONG WITH AVERAGING HIGHER
PERFORMING BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS ALONG WITH MET/MAV AND 2M GFS/NAM
TEMPERATURES SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND
90 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH 90-95 EAST OF THE STATE LINE. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
FEATURE THAT WILL AFFECT THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.  WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WITH THE
RIDGE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER WILL TAKE PLACE DURING
THIS TIME.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AS A
RESULT...WITH THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES TUESDAY REACHING THE MID TO
UPPER 90S.

MODEL FORECASTS DISAGREE SLIGHTLY TO THE PROGRESSION AND TIMING OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.  HOWEVER...THE CONSENSUS
IS THAT A SMALL SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL ROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND BEGIN TO LESSEN THE AMPLITUDE
AND STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE SOMETIME TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE BREAK DOWN OF THE RIDGE...A HIGHER AREA OF JET SPEEDS WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  AS A RESULT...A SERIES OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND SURFACE COOL FRONTS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE HIGH
PLAINS.  THE FIRST FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BRING SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH SOMETIME
THURSDAY EVENING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

KGLD AND KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. BOTH TERMINALS SHOULD SEE
SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 01Z OR
SO BEFORE DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SKC
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM 02Z-11Z OR SO BEFORE SOME CIRRUS MOVES
OVERHEAD FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL START FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AT SPEEDS UNDER 10KTS THROUGH 02Z BEFORE BACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST
AT SIMILAR SPEEDS FROM 03Z-07Z. AFTER 08Z A CONSTANT AND STEADY
VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST...WEST...NORTHWEST AND NORTH EXPECTED
WITH SPEEDS 10KTS OR LESS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...99


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