Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KGLD 272011
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
111 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT A SLOW DECREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARRIVES.
BEST MID LEVEL DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL OCCUR
09Z-15Z...AND HAVE INDICATED HIGHER POPS DURING THAT TIME. THOUGH
LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND MOISTURE ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...LOW TO MID
LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS DECENT. WENT WITH 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM HILL CITY KANSAS TO CHEYENNE WELLS COLORADO
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LESSER AMOUNTS NORTH. ANALOGS SUPPORT THIS
FORECAST...AND WOULD ACTUALLY SUPPORT SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...BUT
PRECIPITABLE WATER ANOMALIES DO NOT SUPPORT HIGH AMOUNTS UNTIL
LATER IN THE FORECAST.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS 10-20 MPH WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS VALUES AROUND 10
BELOW ZERO. MAY BRIEFLY DROP A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THAT...BUT
WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHT DUE TO THE EXPECTED SHORT
DURATION. THE COLD WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
20S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

MODELS HAVE THE JET POSITIONED SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH DURING THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY END UP KEEPING TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY WARMER AND WILL LIKELY ALSO MOVE THE JET ENHANCED AREA OF
PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS ARE
ENDING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
HAVE DRY CONDITIONS AFTER THAT.

THE UPPER LOW CENTER THAT STARTS OUT AS A CLOSED LOW OVER OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY EJECTS OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION AS AN OPEN WAVE ON MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY.  THIS IS AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE
BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS OVER BAJA AND ANOTHER LOW IN PHASE WITH
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH THAT BEGINS MOVING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ENTIRE MAJOR TROUGH AXIS SWEEPS EAST
OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW AND RIDGING TO EXTEND ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS REGION BY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY USHERS IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS FORECAST AREA AND SPREADS THE PRECIPITATION
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING.  SNOW WILL COME TO AN END ON WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE
COLD AIR SHOULD NOT LAST LONG AS RETURN FLOW AROUND THE EXITING HIGH
PRESSURE AREA TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND THE
RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1032 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES AT KGLD...AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THE
SNOW WILL CONTINUE A FEW MORE HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE REPORTED
AT KMCK...BUT LIGHT SNOW IS JUST TO THE WEST. BASED ON SHORT
RANGE MODELS...ENDED THE SNOW AT KGLD/KMCK AFTER 21Z. SNOW WILL
REDEVELOP AFTER 09Z WHEN THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS...CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY MVFR
DUE CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW...THEN DROPPING TO IFR
LATER TONIGHT DUE TO A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MENTZER
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...MENTZER


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.