Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 190606

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1106 PM MST Wed Jan 18 2017

Issued at 1059 PM MST Wed Jan 18 2017

Four automated sites along the trough axis have reported 1/4 mile
visibility. Based on the latest near term guidance of 1/4 mile
visibility increasing in coverage east of the trough axis and due
to the potential for freezing fog, decided to issue a dense fog
advisory for the east half of the Tri-State Area. Models indicate
the fog will linger longer than normal Thursday morning. Have the
advisory going until 18z as a result. This may not be long enough
for locations along the Highway 83 corridor.

The west edge of the dense fog area, along the trough axis, will
see visibilities vary as the trough axis moves east to west
slightly. Included Wallace and Greeley counties to account for the
slight westward shift during the night in the dense fog.

Some locations will have freezing fog which will lead to a light
glaze of ice on elevated surfaces such as bridges and overpasses.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 206 PM MST Wed Jan 18 2017

Across the region...many locales still seeing remnants of morning
mid/high cloud deck as a mix of sunny to partly sunny conditions
persists this afternoon. Temps have rebounded well from early
morning lows w/ a mix of 40s across the area with some localized
spots 50F or higher. The upper low associated with the cloud
cover continues a slow northeastward trek across the Plains
Region...with any precipitation focused east of the low away from
the CWA.

Going into tonight...upper low continues to trek eastward
slowly...with a lee-side trough coming off the Front Range in
tandem. Ample low level moisture focused in place between these
two systems will create foggy conditions this evening into mid
Thursday morning with the focus on locales east of highway 27.
Increased cloud cover in eastern zones due to proximity to upper
low will help in keeping temps up overnight. Overnight lows will
range from around 20F in far western zones w/ the rest of the CWA
tapering up thru the 20s as you push east. Some far east zones
under expected clouds could be around 30F.

For upper low continues its slow departure eastward
thru the day...models shift weak H5 ridge off the Front Range.
This combined with weak west/northwest flow and mostly
clear/sunny skies for most zones...will afford the CWA another
above normal day in terms high temps. Will be looking for a range
from the mid 40s to around 50F...warmest west. The portion of the
CWA remaining in the mid 40s will be most of the eastern third of
the CWA as cloud cover from exiting low will be slow to exit.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 144 PM MST Wed Jan 18 2017

The extended period is fairly busy with troughs and shortwave ridges
moving over the region quickly. As well as precipitation chances
Friday and Monday night into Tuesday.

To start the period on Thursday night, there is an exiting cut off
low pressure. As this exits to the northeast a shortwave ridge pushes
into the region and quickly pushes east by the early morning hours on
Friday. In return to the ridge moving east a trough begins to push
into the region from the west. This trough is expected to move
through the area during the day and start to form a cut off low
during the late afternoon. This cut off low will push north,
northeast over the region and will create some chances for
precipitation. The afternoon will see rain shower chances and then
will transition to snow showers as the night progresses. Current
guidance does not show a significant accumulation.

Saturday will bring another shortwave ridge as that cut off low
moves out of the region. This ridge will be short lived over the CWA
and will be out of the area by late morning. Again, as the ridge
moves out another closed low pushes into the region. This trough
looks to produce a closed low but, as of current guidance, moves
south of our area. Precipitation chances are low, with the potential
for some rain/snow in our southern counties if the closed low tracks
a little more north.

Sunday and Monday will be similar. The trough on Saturday will push
east and a ridge will start to build over the region on Sunday.
Meanwhile on the west coast another trough develops. By the end of
the day on Monday, that trough will start to force itself into the
CWA. Bringing with it southwest flow and moisture. Current guidance
shows a closed low forming just east of the Rockies and moving right
over the area. This will help with the development of rain and snow.
This same trend will continue into Tuesday before the trough
completely moves out of the region by the end of the day on Tuesday.
This is the best chance for precipitation during the period.

Wednesday, will be embedded under a very broad and deep trough that
is covering a good portion of the CONUS.

Temperatures during the period will be normal Friday through Monday
in the 40s during the day. Tuesday and Wednesday will see a cool
down into the 30s during the day due to a cold frontal passage and
the trough moving over the region.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1032 PM MST Wed Jan 18 2017

Low clouds and fog will impact the region overnight and into
Thursday morning due to moisture advecting in from the south ahead
of a surface trough. KMCK will see the lowest visibility and
ceilings, with periods of VLIFR. Low clouds will be slow to erode
at KMCK and may persist into Thursday afternoon. The situation
will be better at KGLD, but still cannot rule out a brief period
of low clouds or visibility restrictions overnight, but clearing
out by mid morning.


KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM MST /noon CST/ Thursday for

NE...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST Thursday for NEZ080-081.



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