Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 201510

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
910 AM MDT Sat May 20 2017

Issued at 910 AM MDT Sat May 20 2017

Update to forecast issued for minor updates to temps...winds but
overall in good shape. Currently mostly cloudy conditions are
persistent over the area as low pressure continues to slowly move
east of the CWA. Winds remain out of the NNW with gusts still in
the 20-30 mph range due to proximity to the exiting system. Temps
are mainly in the 40s with a few spot upper 30s in NE Colorado.
Radar still picking up light shower activity...currently confined
north of Interstate 70. Forecast trend is to lift north with
temps rising as skies clear from south to north thru the afternoon


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 241 AM MDT Sat May 20 2017

The primary short term forecast concern is the possibility
isolated strong to severe storms late in the day on Monday.

Rain showers will lift out of the forecast area today as the large
low pressure system lifts through the central plains states
towards the Great Lakes region. Conditions will dry out briefly from
this afternoon through Sunday morning as surface high pressure
moves into the region and temperatures warm. A few thunderstorms
are possible Sunday afternoon and evening as a weak disturbance
moves east of the Rockies. A chance of thunderstorms returns
again late Monday as a cold front moves through the region and a
short wave trough rotates around the main upper low over the Great
Lakes region and sweeps across the central high plains. A stronger
upper trough is expected to follow the initial short wave trough,
sweeping across the region Monday night. A few storms late Monday
through Monday evening may be strong to severe with strong to
damaging winds and hail.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 225 AM MDT Sat May 20 2017

For Tuesday, precipitation chances taper off as an upper trough
exits the region. Meanwhile, surface high pressure pushes into the
High Plains and temporarily cools temperatures. Conditions dry out
in time for Tuesday night when meridional flow develops aloft. Dry
weather continues on Wednesday and Thursday when an upper ridge
builds into the area. The ridge and downslope flow support a warming
trend through the end of the work week. Precipitation returns to the
forecast Thursday night and Friday as the ridge progresses east,
disturbances pass through the westerly flow aloft, and a cold front
approaches the High Plains.

Temperatures warm throughout the extended period, from the 60s on
Tuesday to the upper 70s/low 80s on Thursday and Friday. Low
temperatures follow the trend, warming from the upper 30s/low 40s
Tuesday night to the low/mid 50s Thursday night.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 410 AM MDT Sat May 20 2017

At GLD, IFR conditions will become MVFR after 16Z and VFR after
19Z as the light rain showers and clouds begin to lift out of the
area in the wake of the exiting low pressure system.

At MCK, VFR conditions may intermittently become IFR through 18Z due
to low clouds and a few rain showers still moving across the
region this morning in the wake of a low pressure system that will
be lifting out of the region. After 18Z, VFR conditions will
persist through the remainder of the TAF period.




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