Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 120928
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
328 AM MDT SAT APR 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT SAT APR 12 2014

UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE TROUGH WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST
MONDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY NIGHT.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST TODAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL
PLAINS THIS EVENING.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
EASTERN COLORADO MONDAY NIGHT.

A SHORTWAVE, CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN ARIZONA, WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
FA BY AFTERNOON.  THE SHORTWAVE IS ADVERTIZED BY THE GFS AND NAM TO
MOVE INTO AN AREA JUST EAST OF THE FA WITH CAPE VALUES FROM 1500 TO
1900 J/KG. HOWEVER, MOISTURE IN THIS AREA IS LACKING. IN ADDITION,
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN FA EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND THEN LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT.  RAIN CONTINUES
SUNDAY WITH A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER EASTERN COLORADO
AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS WITH LESS THAN AN INCH ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE FA TO THE EAST. THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE FA EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.  SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH RESULTING DRY
CONDITIONS FROM MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

THE GFS AND NAM BOTH SUPPORT ADVISORY LEVEL WIND POTENTIAL FOR
SUNDAY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WIND HIGHLIGHT
ON SUNDAY. BUFKIT INDICATES THAT GUSTS TO 40KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RISE TO THE UPPER 70S TO 80.  MUCH
COOLER READINGS WILL OCCUR SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL ONLY RISE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE MORNING
LOW TEMPERATURE.  READINGS SHOULD RANGE FROM 40 TO 50.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY SHOULD VARY FROM 45 TO 50.  MIN TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S.  THE COLDEST NIGHTS WILL
BE SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS WITH READINGS IN THE MID AND UPPEP 20S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 AM MDT SAT APR 12 2014

RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ON FOR ONE MORE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS...BUT IT WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
GFS AND ECMWF THEN DIVERGE WITH WHAT TO DO WITH THAT SYSTEM MID
WEEK. GFS SHOWS A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES THAT WOULD RESULT IN WIND AND SNOW FOR THE LOCAL AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND WOULD
BRING ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN OR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
WEAKER AND FASTER SYSTEM. CAN NOT TOTALLY DISCOUNT THE GFS
SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...SO WILL MENTION RAIN/SNOW POSSIBILITY FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND COOL OFF TEMPERATURES. BIG
DIFFERENCES PERSIST INTO FRIDAY WITH THE SLOWER/STRONGER GFS
STILL BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES BUT THE ECMWF ALREADY
REBUILDING THE RIDGE. WILL TAKE A CONSERVATIVE ON FRIDAY APPROACH
AND WAIT AND SEE HOW THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM MDT FRI APR 11 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE WINDS WILL BE
SHIFTING QUITE A LOT DUE TO THE PASSAGE OR PRESENCE OF A SURFACE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH OR BEING DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA. DURING THE
LAST 6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A
THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT EITHER SITE WITH PROBABLY THE BETTER CHANCE
AT KMCK. EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE HARD TO PIN DOWN EXACTLY WHERE
STORMS WILL DEVELOP...DID FEEL IT WAS IMPORTANT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
A VCTS AT BOTH SITES UNTIL CAN GET MORE CERTAIN.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BULLER







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