Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 220938

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
238 AM MST Wed Feb 22 2017

Issued at 502 PM MST Tue Feb 21 2017

Red Flag Warning has been allowed to expire.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 128 PM MST Tue Feb 21 2017

Latest upper air analysis shows zonal flow over the Plains.  Within
the zonal flow a short wave ridge was present over the Tri-State
Area.  Further west southwest flow was bringing water vapor over the
Great Basin.

Tonight light south winds will gradually turn to the west behind a
surface trough that will move through.  Lows will be warmer than
last night due to the higher dew points and westerly winds.

Wednesday a cold front will move into the Tri-State Area during the
day then stall near the I-70 corridor.  Current data has the front
very close to I-70.  However with the surface low south of the
front, am thinking the front will be further south than currently

Last couple runs of the GFS/NAM showed a subtle shift south.  The
ECMWF nudged the front further north from its last run, but still
had cooler temperatures than most other models.  Since the front
will likely be further south than currently forecast, have cooled
highs a few degrees.

Lift does increase of the Tri-State Area in the afternoon.  However
the environment is too dry to support more than some cloud cover.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 238 AM MST Wed Feb 22 2017

For the extended period...the latest runs of the GFS/ECMWF bring the
Tri State region dry conditions to start off the upcoming zonal flow at 500/700 mb sweeps across the Plains
region. A digging shortwave trough does set up along the Pacific
coastline by next Monday. A weak shortwave ahead of this system does
work off the Rockies Monday and across the central plains. High
pressure at the surface combined with aforementioned zonal flow will
keep this system dry and quick moving. By Tuesday into Tuesday
night...the shortwave trough does begin to work inward. Models do
shift this system just south of the CWA as it swings thru the Plains
region. It will be this system that will bring the next and only
chance for precipitation in the extended. High pressure at the
surface and a building H5 ridge over the western portion of the
country will work to fill gap of trough exiting...for the Wednesday

No strong CAA is expected with the arrival of the system for next
week. With the extensive zonal flow...that does shift a bit NW as
ridge builds in from the west...temps are going to trend to back
above normal. Highs looking to reach in the 40s for the upcoming the 50s thereafter. Overnight lows mainly in the 20s to
lower 30s. Precip next week will have mainly light rain due too
timing of passage...with some light snowfall with no accum Tuesday
night as colder air works south into the region on backside of
exiting system.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1036 PM MST Tue Feb 21 2017

Vfr conditions are expected through the period. West winds will
gradually shift to the northwest to north by late morning. From
18z to 00z the north winds will shift to the east northeast. These
winds, at less than 10 knots, will continue through the end of the




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