Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 252313
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
513 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

TONIGHT...WEATHER DISTURBANCE AND WIDE AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN
OR RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH WITH SOME CLEARING
(EXCEPT SOME CIRRUS) PER DRIER AIR IN THE 850-500MB LAYER MOVING IN
FROM THE NORTH. AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DARK ALL PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA. THE GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALSO
COME TO AN END AND BECOME RATHER LIGHT AFTER DARK. WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOW TO
MID 20S.

THURSDAY...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST.
NORTHWEST WINDS ENTER THE NORTHWEST 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 17Z
WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON THESE WINDS EXPAND EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AND
GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S IN FAR EASTERN
COLORADO...LOW TO MID 60S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH RIDGE IN THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT. QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SHOT OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA. DUE TO THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM AND SMALL WINDOW OF MOISTURE
ADVECTION...AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. THERE COULD BE A TRANSITION
TO RAIN/SNOW OR ALL NOW BUT THIS SHOULDNT AMOUNT TO MUCH IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMULATIONS (ESPECIALLY WITH WARMER GROUND TEMPS DURING
PRECIPITATION.

FRIDAY-TUESDAY...H5 RIDGE TRANSITIONS EAST ACROSS THE CWA EVENTUALLY
BREAKING DOWN AS COMPLICATE WESTERLY ZONAL PATTERN ESTABLISHES
ITSELF...WITH A SPLIT IN THE FLOW ALOFT BY SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS A BIT OF SPREAD ON POSITION OF NORTHERN JET STREAM BETWEEN
GUIDANCE...HOWEVER OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE TOWARDS THIS
STRONGER/COLDER STORM TRACK REMAINING TOO FAR NORTH FOR ANY BENEFIT.
GFS DOES SHOW TROUGH DEVELOPING WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND WEAK
VORTICITY KICKING OFF SHOWERS (POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS) INTO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND POSSIBLY THE PLAINS NEXT WEEK. VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE CONSIDERING THE DRY NATURE OF THE AIR MASS
ADVERTISED...AND UNFAVORABLE STORM TRACKS...SO I KEPT DRY FORECAST
IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THESE
PERIODS...WITH BETTER WAA AHEAD OF PASSING SHORTWAVES (NORTH OF THE
REGION) ON SATURDAY AND NEXT TUESDAY WHEN HIGHS COULD REACH 80F.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 507 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT KGLD AND KMCK
AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. THE NAM INDICATES A
RETURN OF SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
WITH CLEARING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO
WINDY AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...FS


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