Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 182027
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
227 PM MDT WED MAY 18 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 818 AM MDT Wed May 18 2016

Updated to remove mention of fog and to decrease the amount of sky
cover today before clouds move into the area later this afternoon.
Also modified precipitation areas into Thursday and Friday as the
upper low moving east of the Rockies appears to be taking a more
southerly track.

UPDATE Issued at 443 AM MDT Wed May 18 2016

Update issued to add in mention of patchy frost for portions of
the CWA...mainly areas west of Highway 25. Latest satellite loop
shows these areas still clear with cloud shield just to the west
of the CWA and not moving to much eastward. This combined with
temps dropping into the mid 30s/light winds has prompted mention
of frost over next few hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 219 AM MDT Wed May 18 2016

Across the Tri State Region this morning...a mix of clear to
partly cloudy conditions ensue over the area...with temperatures
ranging mainly in the lower to mid 40s along side a few locales
already dipping into the upper 30s. The forecast area will begin
to see increasing clouds work in from the west from a lingering
low/mid cloud deck over the front range. As the T/Td spread
continues to tighten over the next few hours towards 12z...expect
some patchy fog development that will linger mainly west of
highway 25 thru the mid morning hours.

For the rest of Today...the main wx features will continue to be the
cloud cover and the areal extent over the CWA. High pressure lies to
our north...and the upper low/trough that models had linger between
the central/southern portions of the Rockies...now sits over the 4-
corners region of the SW. Overall a general psunny/mcldy day on tap
w/ best chance for sunshine over northern zones.

Going into tonight then on into the end of the week...upper low over
the desert SW will begin to shift east into the Southern Plains
region just south of the cwa...lifting towards the Central Plains
Thursday then exiting by Thursday night...replaced by increased h5
ridging. Depending on which model run to go with some uncertainty to
extent of qpf that will push into the region as the upper low passes
by. Best chances for any rw/trw will occur over Eastern/Southeastern
zones...with little to none over the W/NW areas.

For temps...increasing temp trend expected over the 3-day period
with highs Today ranging in the lower to mid 60s..warmest e and ne
away from bulk of expected cloud cover. By Thursday with the passage
of the upper system to our south...bulk of cloud cover will be south
and east...putting highs in the mid to upper 60s...warmest areas
W/NW. By Friday with strong ridging occurring over the
region...looking for temps to work into the 70s...warmest over
western areas. Overnight lows will be mainly in the 40s tonight and
Thursday night...with low 50s by Friday night.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 227 PM MDT Wed May 18 2016

For this extended forecast period, a return to much warmer weather
remains a sure bet. A ridge of high pressure and days of southerly
flow assure this warming trend. Differences among guidance remain on
the position of a dryline that is expected to develop and waiver
across the region. Locations behind the dryline should be slightly
warmer and less humid. Locations east of the dryline should be
marginally cooler due to potential morning stratus and increased
humidity.

For precipitation chances, the first period to watch in the extended
is Friday morning. Substantial moisture advection should be underway
and forecast soundings indicate saturation below 750 mb. Widespread
stratus seems inevitable but remain a little unsure about light
rain, drizzle and fog potential. Decided to include slight chance
pops with light rain/drizzle/patchy fog in the weather grids. A cap
and overall lack of instability should prevent thunderstorm
development.

Attention then turns to this weekend`s storm chances. The 500 mb
high pressure ridge that builds over the Great Plains Thursday and
Friday slides east this weekend. In addition, a large trough of low
pressure spreads over the western United States. Upper level
impulses swing around this upper low, providing enough forcing for
thunderstorm development each afternoon/evening. Further, a dryline
should develop over the region. Persistent moisture advection allows
instability to build and provide an environment favorable for severe
weather. Projections forecast SBCAPE of 1500-2500 J/KG, 0-6 KM Bulk
Shear of 20-30 kts Saturday, increasing to 35-50 kts Sunday, 850-500
mb lapse rates of 7-8 C/KM and 0-3 KM Helicity of 100-200 m2/s2. All
of these parameters are highly suggestive of severe thunderstorms.
Decided there was enough confidence to include a severe thunderstorm
mention in the forecast for Saturday afternoon/evening and once
again Sunday afternoon/evening. Sunday appears to be the day to
really focus on as a cap should still be in place Saturday, limiting
convection to more isolated instances. Locations east of the dryline
will be under the highest threat for severe thunderstorms but
forecast guidance possesses some 50+ mile differences on the
location of the dryline. Do think it is a safe bet to suggest
southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas will be under a threat of
severe weather but east Colorado remains in doubt. Stay tuned!

Beyond Sunday, another round of thunderstorms should be expected
once again Tuesday. Monday should be fairly quiet at Sunday`s
activity should help stabilize the atmosphere some and the dryline
should surge east, taking the instability with it. Return flow
Monday night should lead to an instability build up once again. A
strong shortwave trough should move through and provide ample lift
once again for thunderstorm development. Unfortunately, some
uncertainty remains on the location of a potential cold front and
dryline. For now, will not mention severe weather but Tuesday
appears to be a day that also warrants watching.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1131 AM MDT Wed May 18 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH DIRUNAL FLUCTUATIONS IN CLOUD COVER. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND BECOME GUSTY BY
AFTERNOON.


&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LOCKHART
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...LOCKHART



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