Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 262331
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
531 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER NEVADA LATE THIS MORNING IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO UTAH THROUGH TONIGHT THEN INTO NORTHWEST
COLORADO BY 00Z THURSDAY. ONE OR TWO DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT BEFORE DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN 1/2 OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP HIGHEST
POPS GOING ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH A LULL
IN ACTIVITY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. MAY SEE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS ISNT VERY HIGH.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT NEAR 60 ACROSS THE WEST...LOW TO MID 60S
ACROSS THE EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO
LOW 80S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW 80S ALONG THE KS/NE
BORDER. FURTHER EAST IN THE HILL CITY AREA UPPER 80S EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO
COLORADO...BRINGING ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH AT 00Z WILL BE IN THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA AND BY 12Z JUST EXITING THE AREA.
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE MODEST AT
BEST...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SEVERE STORMS BUT THE OVERALL THREAT
LOOKS RATHER MUTED. ADDITIONAL 12-HOUR QPF WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
HIGHEST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WHERE MODELS SHOW GENERALLY 0.25 TO
0.50 INCHES...SOME LOCAL AMOUNTS COULD EXCEED ONE INCH. THOSE
NUMBERS WOULD NOT GENERALLY WARRANT A FLOOD WATCH...BUT WITH
SEVERAL DAYS OF RAIN/SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS ONE MAY HAVE TO
BE CONSIDERED AT A LATER TIME.

MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY
WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUING...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH PEAK HEATING. BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES JUST ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE FRONT WHERE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE UP TO 40KTS. ALTHOUGH BETTER SEVERE CHANCES
WILL LIKELY BE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA NEAR THE FRONT...COULD SEE
A FEW SEVERE STORMS IN THE HILL CITY TO GOVE AREAS...WITH LESSER
CHANCES NORTH AND WEST AS INSTABILITY RAPIDLY DIMINISHES. UPPER
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL END WEST TO EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN
THE FAR EAST COUNTIES...NORTON AND GRAHAM...BUT OTHERWISE THE
SYSTEM WILL BE PULLING AWAY WITH CLEARING SKIES FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS BACK TO NEAR 90 BY SUNDAY.

LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY AND SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 528 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTH AND EAST OVER
KGLD EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD AND THEN BY 06Z AT KMCK. MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL. MVFR CONDITIONSMAY
BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KGLD...WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS. LOW
STRATUS AND FOG WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP BY 12Z AT BOTH
TERMINALS...THOUGH IFR CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY AT KGLD BASED
ON CURRENT GUIDANCE...AND THE BETTER CHANCE OF LINGERING RAIN AT
KMCK THROUGH THE MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE FIRST DISTURBANCE DEPARTS...THE NEXT SHOT OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIP SHOULD COME OUTSIDE THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KSZ001-013.

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COZ090>092.

NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NEZ079.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...0254
AVIATION...DR



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