Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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202
FXUS63 KGLD 250756
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
156 AM MDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 816 PM MDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Precipitation continues to decline in coverage as H5 low
continues to drift to the east across Oklahoma. Expect
precipitation to continue to decrease in coverage and intensity
through the next 2 hours.

Skies clearing rapidly from the west and with moist ground and
eventually light winds...fog threat seems to be increasing. Think
most likely area will be eastern CWA where clouds will be last to
break...resulting in an airmass preconditioned for fog
development. Have added/increased fog coverage tonight and will
continue to monitor.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 231 PM MDT Fri Mar 24 2017

WV imagery shows well defined closed low centered over the Texas
Panhandle, with the northwest part of the upper low over our CWA. At
the surface high pressure is beginning to build into eastern COlorado
with surface low pressure is now over the Texas Panhandle moving into
western Oklahoma.

This afternoon-Tonight: Upper low will continue to transition
eastward and occlusion currently associated with ongoing precip band
will begin to diminish in coverage and slide northeast. A lobe of
mid level vorticity on the NW extent of upper low center is shown to
rotate towards our eastern CWA and additional rain (or rain/snow)
development will be possible towards north central Kansas. High
resolution guidance (HRRR/ARW/NMM) are showing this with light precip
signal (ending by 12Z). Overall moisture will be decreasing as
stable drier air filters in from the west, so other than lingering
some slight chance PoPs in our far east after 06Z I have most precip
ending this evening.

Precip type continues to be problematic as area of lower Tw in the
lower levels lingers near the main precip band. Areas of eastern
Colorado have received light accumulations on grassy surfaces, but
trend has been for this roads to stay mainly wet (based on web
cams). Area of precip shift away from this cooler region, so
opportunity for accumulating snow may be limited. I can`t rule out
light slushy accumulations on grassy surfaces in NW Kansas or SW
Nebraska before all is said an done.

Some models had been showing possible fog development and with
surface high pressure building in this is possible. At the same time
much drier air will be filtering into the boundary layer, and other
than our far east where surface Tds may hold up I am not confident
about fog formation.  Majority of guidance does not show this, so I
kept mention out. Will be something to keep an eye on.

Temperatures tonight should drop well below freezing in our west
with clearing skies and cooler/drier air mass (lower 20s eastern
CO). Our east is less certain, as low clouds and possible precip
could limit diurnal cooling and lows may remain in upper 30s.

Saturday: Shortwave ridging will be in place, while surface high
pressure begins to slide east. There will be a slight moderation of
the air mass as lee trough begins to redevelop. We will likely end
up near seasonal normals in the upper 50s/lower 60s with mostly
sunny skies.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 154 AM MDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Several storm systems will traverse the Tri-State region Tuesday
through Saturday. Showers will continue moving into the region on
Tuesday along an axis of instability stretching from central
Texas northwestward through eastern Wyoming. This axis is
associated with an area of low pressure that will be diving
southeastward, out of the Great Basin and into New Mexico and
Texas as we head into Wednesday. Widespread showers are expected
from Tuesday afternoon, into the overnight and extending all the
way through the day on Wednesday as this system moves south of the
region. There will be minimal CAA with the system until late
Wednesday night into Thursday morning, leading to only a brief
period of snow or rain/snow mix through Thursday morning. This
system exits from southwest to northeast through the day on
Thursday. Although winds will become gusty on Tuesday/Wednesday,
high wind risk is relatively low at this time Tuesday through
Thursday.

Another low pressure system will travel well west the area as we
head into Friday afternoon. This system will move out of the Great
Basin late Friday afternoon, traveling southeastward into Arizona
and into Mexico on Saturday. An axis of instability will extend into
the region on Friday; however, confidence in this solution is
relatively low at this time and precipitation areas may change in
future updates due to track variation. Rain and perhaps a rain/snow
mix will be possible Friday evening and overnight into Saturday.

High temperatures during the extended period will be near to
slightly above average with low temperatures expected to be above
normal. Normal highs are in the lower to middle 50s with normal lows
in the lower 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1112 PM MDT Fri Mar 24 2017

For Kgld...vfr conditions are expected through the period. North
to northwest winds less than 10 knots will become light and
variable late in the morning. Those winds will shift to the
southeast at near 8 knots around 00z.

For Kmck...conditions will be just above mvfr for the first 3
hours. Around 09z, mvfr conditions will develop and continue
until 16z when vfr conditions will return for the rest of the
period. North winds less than 10 knots will become northeast in
the afternoon at near 6 knots. Those winds will shift to east
southeast at the same speed around 00z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...BULLER



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