Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KGLD 111801
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1201 PM MDT FRI APR 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM MDT FRI APR 11 2014

SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECEDING THIS
SYSTEM...THE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
AND DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS IT CONSOLIDATES INTO A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST COLORADO/SOUTHWEST KANSAS/PANHANDLE AREA.
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY. WITH THE WARM
TEMPERATURES...PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
ALONG WITH CONVERGENCE AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE NEAR THE
TROUGH AND SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES MOVING EAST OF THE ROCKIES IN
THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH...A
FEW OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE OF COLORADO MAY SNEAK INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 AM MDT FRI APR 11 2014

THE PERIOD WILL START OFF COOL BUT DRY DOWNSTREAM OF A RIDGE AXIS.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S. BY TUESDAY THE RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 60S.
MODELS THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH RESPECT TO THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR
MID AND LATE WEEK. GFS BRINGS A CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION GRADUALLY
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. ECMWF SHOWS ONLY A BROAD OPEN WAVE MOVING MUCH FASTER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
FORECAST IS LOW. WILL CARRY SOME LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY TO
PRESERVE CONTINUITY AND ACCOUNT FOR GFS SOLUTION. NONZERO MUCAPE
IS FORECAST SO WILL MENTION THUNDER...THOUGH INSTABILITY IS RATHER
WEAK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MDT FRI APR 11 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN LIGHTEN AND
TURN TO THE NORTHEAST BY 15Z SATURDAY MORNING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...LOCKHART






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.