Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 281706
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1106 AM MDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT THU APR 28 2016

UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST TODAY AHEAD OF A LOW MOVING INTO THE 4-
CORNERS AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.  THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE INTO
CENTRAL COLORADO FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS SATURDAY.
THE LOW WILL SHIFT INTO NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.

DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE LOOK FAVORABLE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
WITH THE UPPER LOW THAT AFFECTS THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. DYNAMICS DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT IN EASTERN COLORADO. PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE
BACK TO RAIN SATURDAY WITH SNOW MIXING IN AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT
OVER EASTERN COLORADO. SOME RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST
OF THE COLORADO BORDER INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY NIGHT.ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF EASTERN
COLORADO.SOME ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL OVER
MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE THE FA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
INSTABILITY IS WEAK WITH CAPE RANGING FROM 200 TO 400 J/KG.

MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER 50S TODAY WITH
COOLER READINGS FROM THE MID 40S TO 50 FRIDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 45 TO 55. MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
THROUGH RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40. MIN TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN
EASTERN COLORADO TO NEAR40 IN THE EASTERN FA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT THU APR 28 2016

A SHORTWAVE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY
WITH CHC POPS DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING AS THE NEXT AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. DURING THE DAY...PTYPES WILL
BE ALL RAIN TO BEGIN HOWEVER SNOW WILL MIX OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 30S DURING THE EARLY
MORNING MAINLY IN EASTERN COLORADO AND THE NORTHWEST KANSAS COUNTIES
JUST EAST OF THE KANSAS COLORADO BORDER. THE SNOW OR RAIN SNOW MIX
WILL RETREAT AND CHANGE BACK OVER TO ALL RAIN AFTER SUNRISE ON
MONDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY
WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE LOW
WEAKENS AND MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN WEST OF
THE CWA ON TUESDAY AND CURRENT GUIDANCE HAS IT LINGERING THROUGH
THURSDAY WHEN IT WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE CWA. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MDT THU APR 28 2016

FOR KGLD AND KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH APPROXIMATELY
06Z-08Z WITH WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST UNDER 10KTS. FROM 09Z
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. CIGS BEGIN IN
THE MVFR CATEGORY BUT AS THE RAIN INCREASES IN INTENSITY AND
STRATUS DEVELOPS WE SHOULD SEE IFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS. WINDS AT KGLD
AFTER 06Z GUST UP TO 25KTS FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST WHILE AT KMCK
WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10KTS FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...99



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