Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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749
FXUS63 KGLD 041130
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
430 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 214 AM MST
THU FEB 4 2016

AS OF 3 AM CST...2 AM MST...SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE TRI-STATE
REGION. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
TO THE LOW TEENS. A FEW OBSERVATIONS BELOW ZERO HAVE BEEN NOTED
TONIGHT. WINDS ARE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH EXCEPT IN LOW
SPOTS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER COLORADO...
HEADING ON AN EASTERLY COURSE. ALOFT...NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES
WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER NEVADA AND
OREGON...HEADING SOUTHWEST.

FOR THIS MORNING...WILL LET THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONTINUE. WINDS
HAVE SO FAR REMAINED HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER SLIGHTLY
MIXED. THIS HAS PREVENTED TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT. WITH
OCCASIONAL WIND CHILLS NEAR 10 BELOW OR LOWER...FELT THE ADVISORY
MIGHT AS WELL CONTINUE IN CASE WINDS BRIEFLY WEAKEN...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO TANK...AROUND SUNRISE AS HAPPENS AT TIMES IN THIS
AREA. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY... ANTICIPATE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...WITH THE EXPANSIVE SNOW
FIELD REMAINING...STILL ANTICIPATE BELOW NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...THE WESTERN UNITED STATES SHORTWAVE PASSES
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE WILL FIRST NEED TO BE OVERCOME IN ORDER TO ALLOW
PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND. BASED ON TEMPERATURES...PRECIP
WILL BE ALL SNOW. DUE TO A LACK OF MOISTURE...ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
FALLS WILL BE LIGHT. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE VERY
LIGHT...ONLY A DUSTING AT MOST IS EXPECTED.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. COLD
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST. FORECAST GUIDANCE REMAINS
PERSISTENT IN SUGGESTING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH DAYS.
WITH A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WENT WITH A BLEND OF RAWBLEND AND NAM12 TEMPERATURES FOR THE
FORECAST HIGH. THIS IS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN A PERSISTENCE FORECAST
FROM TODAY`S HIGHS.

ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT. BASED ON CURRENT INDICATIONS...THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE
PRECIPITATION-FREE AS IT PASSES. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
THERE WERE SOME FLURRIES. THE BIGGER STORY WILL MOST LIKELY BE THE
COLD FRONT THAT IS FORCED SOUTH. WHILE A DRASTIC DROP IN
TEMPERATURES IS NOT EXPECTED...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT COULD BRING SOME GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AS THE FRONT
PASSES. THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG WINDS MIXING DOWN
FROM ALOFT AT THE TIME OF FRONTAL PASSAGE AND HEALTHY PRESSURE RISES
ARE THE PRIMARY CULPRITS FOR THE STRONG WIND GUSTS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 214 AM MST THU
FEB 4 2016

DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN DEVELOPS ALOFT OVER THE U.S. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FAR WEST AND A LOW SETTLING
INTO THE MID-WEST WITH A TROUGH IN PLACE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION. THIS KEEPS THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...AND KEEPS ANY
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WELL NORTH AND EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS GENERALLY IN PLACE
OVER THE WESTERN U.S.  THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN AND FLATTEN DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. AS THIS
HAPPENS...THE UPPER RIDGE BROADENS OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS
WITH THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE WESTERLY. A SURFACE LEE TROUGH
WILL DEEPENS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IN RESPONSE TO THE MORE WESTERLY
FLOW. SURFACE NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH AND WILL AID IN PUSHING THE COLDER AIR EAST AND WARMING THE
AIR OVER THE WEST WITH DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
TO THE WEST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM THROUGH THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY REACHING
BACK UP INTO THE 50S BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP MELT THE EXTENSIVE
SNOW COVER CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THIS TAF
PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
BRINGING POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS AND SNOW SHOWERS TO BOTH SITES.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE ISNT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME. CONFIDENT IN WIDESPREAD HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE
WEST...BECOMING OVERCAST AROUND TO JUST AFTER SUNSET. LOWER
CEILINGS SHOULD OCCUR AS ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS BUT SIGNIFICANT DRY
AIR INITIALLY IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY LIMIT HOW LOW CEILINGS
FALL. LIGHT WINDS FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
     KSZ001-013-027.

CO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ090>092.

NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ079.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...RRH



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