Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 250542
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1042 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 407 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO INCLUDE SPRINKLES TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT MEASURABLE RAINFALL AS AN AREA OF VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT.  AS IT COMES ACROSS SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE
BREEZY CATEGORY OVERNIGHT AND THEN THE WINDY CATEGORY SUNDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES THIS EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE LACK OF LOWER LEVEL SATURATION IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO H8-7 LAYER MEAN RH IS
ALSO LACKING. WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY BY LATE MORNING WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HELD UP BY GOOD MIXING BUT CLEARING
SKIES AFTER 06Z WILL HELP WITH COOLING.  EXPECT MIN TEMPERATURES TO
COOL TO THE LOWER 30S.  MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL HAVE POTENTIAL
TO REACH THE MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...TRANSITION FROM A WARMER/ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURE PATTERN TO ONE THAT IS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEKEND
WILL HAVE H5 RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WITH A
BROAD TROUGH SITTING OVER THE EASTERN HALF. MODELS DO SHIFT RIDGE
OFF THE ROCKIES AND OUT INTO THE PLAINS REGION GOING INTO NEXT
MONDAY/TUESDAY BEFORE BREAKING DOWN. GOING INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY...AS
RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS REGION...BEGINNING THE COOLING DOWN OF TEMPS
TO NEAR NORMAL AS CAA RE-SURFACES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
PLAINS REGION BEHIND EXITING TROUGH TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY. THE
ARRIVAL OF SECOND SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL BRING
IN ANOTHER RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR BY FRIDAY INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

MODEL 925 MB TEMPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL RANGE FROM +14C TO
+18C DURING PEAK WARMING...THEN TREND DOWNWARD INTO THE +5C TO +9C
RANGE MIDDAY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER GOING
INTO THE MON/TUES TIMEFRAME WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER REGION...THESE
TEMPS WILL TRANSLATE INTO DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING NEAR 70F FOR BOTH
DAYS...WITH 30S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. NEXT WEDNESDAY ON INTO
SATURDAY...WILL BRING DAYTIME HIGHS FROM NEAR 60F DOWN TO THE MID
30S...IN PART BY 2 WAVES OF COLD AIR ARRIVING WITH TROUGH PASSAGES.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE VERY LOW FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH BEST
TIMEFRAME OCCURRING LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH ARRIVAL OF SECOND
SYSTEM. FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF CUTOFF OVER SW PORTIONS
OF THE COUNTRY THATS LIFTS NORTH AS H5 RIDGE GOES EASTWARD. THE
TROUGH REMNANTS THEN SHIFTS EAST WEDNESDAY AS FIRST SHORTWAVE.
RUNNING INTO HIGH PRESSURE AND MOVEMENT OVER MOUNTAINS WILL KEEP
THIS SYSTEM DRY OVER THE CWA. FOR THE SECOND SYSTEM...MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE INFLUX WITH CUTOFF OVER THE WEST WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE
FRONT LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY TO BRING SL CHANCES FOR PRECIP.
TEMPS ARE WARM ENOUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING AND AGAIN LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY TO WARRANT MENTION OF SOME LIGHT
RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS IN SPOTS...OTHERWISE LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE WITH
ACCUM INCH OR LESS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SKIES ARE CLEARING TONIGHT WITH A RETURN OF HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED
LATE SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST WITH SUBSIDENCE IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH HELPING TO BRING
STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH 50 KNOTS SHOWING UP AT ABOUT 2KFT AGL AND
INCREASING TO OVER 100 KTS WITH THE JET ALOFT ABOVE 18K FT AGL.
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS ARE TO NOT HOLD ONTO THE 50+ KT WINDS AS LONG
BELOW 5K FT AGL...SO BY 18Z...EXPECT WINDS SPEEDS TO HAVE PEAKED
AT AROUND 20-25KTS GUSTING TO 30-35KTS AND DO NOT EXPECT WINDS TO
INCREASE ANY FURTHER THAN THEY HAVE BY THAT POINT. EXPECT WINDS TO
DECREASE IN SPEED THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT AND
TURNING WEST AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LOCKHART
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...LOCKHART


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