Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 221907
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
107 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER NEW MEXICO WITH RUC ANALYSIS INDICATING A 600 DM RIDGE IN
PLACE AT H5. AT THE SFC...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS STALLED ACROSS THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN CWA...BETWEEN TRIBUNE AND LEOTI EXTENDING
NORTHEAST TOWARDS HILL CITY.

MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES
THIS EVENING AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

LACK OF ANY MEANINGFUL CU FIELD AT 19Z LOWERS OVERALL CONFIDENCE
IN LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM FORECAST AND WHILE AN ISOLATED
STORM IS STILL POSSIBLE...HAVE DOUBTS THAT ANYTHING WILL FIRE
ALONG REMAINING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WITH H85-H7 WAA INCREASING
TONIGHT...IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR STORMS COMING OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES BUT WITH WEAK WINDS THROUGHOUT
THE COLUMN STORM MOTION WOULD BE SLOW. A FEW MODELS SUGGEST
ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z AND WHILE THE FORCING
WILL BE THERE...CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AND PRESSURE
ADVECTION VALUES ON 310 AND 315K SURFACES WOULD SUGGEST SATURATION
UNLIKELY. IF STORMS/CLOUDS CANNOT DEVELOP...BACKED EASTERLY FLOW
WITH A 100MB POCKET OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST
PATCHY FOG PRIOR TO 15Z. GENERAL CONSENSUS OF MODELS SUGGESTS
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY THAN
TODAY...GIVEN EXPECTED SFC PATTERN THAT APPEARS REASONABLE.




.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 AM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014

FOR THE PERIODS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE FORECAST AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MAINLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH BROAD H5
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THERE WILL BE THE
CHANCE FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME
AS CWA WILL SEE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AND LEE-SIDE TROUGH
AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. GOING FOR MAINLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME. FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL
MAINLY AFFECT NORTHERN ZONES BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE BEFORE FALLING
APART BY 00Z THURSDAY. WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY WILL SEE TRW CHANCES
FIRST BEFORE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST GIVING EASTERN ZONES BETTER CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION. 925 MB TEMPS THRU PERIOD WILL RANGE IN THE +30 TO
+36C WHICH GIVE 90S TO THE AREA...BUT WILL BE CLOUD DEPENDENT FROM
EXPECTED PRECIPITATION.

THE LAST WEEKEND OF JULY WILL BE AN ACTIVE ONE WITH CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND COOLING TREND TOWARDS NEXT WEEK. ON THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE FLOW WILL BE NEAR-ZONAL AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE UPPER HIGH THAT IS OVER THE REGION TODAY
SLOWLY RETROGRADES SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AT
THE SAME TIME A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG INTO THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE CONUS...RESULTING IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AS A RIDGE
DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN REGION.

FRIDAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE LAST DAY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A
CHANCE OF SEEING TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPS. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY WHICH IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT TEMPS
MUCH INITIALLY...BUT THE BOUNDARY COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STORMS
MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING
AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO INTO
WESTERN KANSAS PROVIDING AMPLE UPWARD MOTION FOR BOTH ISOLATED
STORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND TERRAIN-BASED CONVECTION. SOUNDINGS
QUICKLY STABILIZE OVERNIGHT...SO ANY STORMS THAT CAN POP UP WILL NOT
LAST LONG.

SATURDAY WILL BE NOT AS HOT WITH A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE FOR
STORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN EASTERN COLORADO AND ADJACENT
COUNTIES IN WESTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. MOST OF THE DAY
WILL BE DRY...BUT AS INSTABILITY INCREASES TO 1500-2000+ J/JG MUCAPE
/UNCAPPED/ WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AROUND 40 KTS
EFFECTIVE SHEAR...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY. THE 00Z CYCLE GUIDANCE IS A BIT SLOWER ON THE LARGE
SCALE LIFT ARRIVAL COMPARED TO PAST RUNS...BUT IN THIS ENVIRONMENT
WE WILL NOT NEED MUCH TO GET STORMS GOING. THE COLD FRONT FROM LATE
FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SITTING IN AN EAST-WEST FASHION SOMEWHERE
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS...AND IN THIS VICINITY WOULD BE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR INITIAL DEVELOPMENT. AS LONG AS STORMS DEVELOP THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO LAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH A 25-30KT LOW LEVEL
JET AND PLENTY OF ELEVATED CAPE TO KEEP THINGS GOING. STORM MOTIONS
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A
MAJOR FLASH FLOOD THREAT. HIGHS IN THE MID 90S.

SUNDAY EXPECT ANY ONGOING OVERNIGHT PRECIP TO END BY SUNRISE AS
COOLER...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE STRATIFORM RAIN WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE DAY. GFS DETERMINISTIC IS A DRY
OUTLIER IN THIS SCENARIO...BUT GEFS MEMBERS AGREE WELL WITH
ECMWF/GEM FOR A SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS SCENARIO. INSTABILITY IS
NOT EXTREME...SO THIS WILL NOT BE AS INTENSE OF AN EVENT AS
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT COULD SEE CLOUDS KEEPING THINGS SOCKED
IN MUCH OF THE DAY WITH OFF AND ON SHOWERS. HIGHS RELATIVELY
COOLER...ESPECIALLY IF CLOUD COVER IS MORE THAN EXPECTED...IN THE
LOW 90S.

MONDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUING
DURING THE DAY. AS WITH SUNDAY THE GFS DETERMINISTIC IS VERY
DRY...BUT GIVEN CLIMO POPS ARE IN THE LOW 20S FELT POPS IN THE MID
20S WAS JUST FINE GIVEN THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY FOR A DAY 7
FORECAST. TEMPS COOLER...AGAIN ESPECIALLY SO IF CLOUDS STICK AROUND
FOR MOST THE DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING...BUT OVERALL PROBABILITIES TOO LOW AT THIS POINT IN TIME
TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. SMALL THREAT FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER 09Z
ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF AREA. STILL A FAIR BIT OF DISCREPANCY WITH
RESPECT TO EXPECTED MOISTURE PROFILES...SO HAVE LIMITED IMPACT ON
AVIATION CATEGORIES.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ003-004-015-016-
     029.

CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JRM





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