Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 151720

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1020 AM MST Fri Dec 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 241 AM MST Fri Dec 15 2017

Upper ridge will rebuild across the area today resulting in mostly
sunny, dry and warmer conditions. High temperatures will climb
into the lower 60s. Humidity values will drop to around 15 percent
this afternoon, but wind speeds will remain below critical fire
weather values. Nonetheless, given the very dry fuels some
elevated fire weather conditions will be possible.

Ridge will flatten on Saturday as strong trough digs into the
Great Basin. Cold front will move through the area during the day
with brisk northeast winds by the afternoon. Low levels will
slowly saturate Saturday night with the low level upslope. The
moisture will be shallow and between 0C and -10C, and as it
deepens should start to see freezing drizzle develop after
midnight and continue through Sunday morning. Might see a little
freezing rain in northeast Colorado/adjacent areas of northwest
Kansas and southwest Nebraska, though accumulations will be very
light. May eventually need a winter weather advisory if it

Sunday will be mostly cloudy and cold as the upper trough axis
moves across the central plains. Temperatures will not move much
from morning lows, probably only reaching the middle to upper 30s,
which may be optimistic.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 222 AM MST Fri Dec 15 2017

Monday through Wednesday: A warming trend will take shape early
next week, prevailing through Wednesday. Afternoon high temperatures
will reach the lower 50s on Monday and the upper 50s/lower 60s on
Wednesday. Dry weather will dominate as the pattern will not favor
precipitation under weak ridging. Low temperatures each night will
fall into the lower 20s on Monday with middle to upper 20s in
Tuesday. Colder air will approach the region late Wednesday with
lows falling into the lower 20s on Wednesday night.

Thursday and Thursday night: A strong cold front will push through
the CWA on Thursday with the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models all
within reasonable agreement both temporally and spatially. The
consensus brings the H7 trough and theta-e boundary through the area
between 06Z and 18Z for all models. CAA will be quite strong during
this time frame and daytime high temperatures will only reach the
lower to middle 30s for all but the far southern reaches of the CWA,
where upper 30s will prevail. There will be enough moisture in place
to allow for a chance of light snow that will ride along the theta-e
boundary, moving from northwest to southeast through the morning and
early afternoon hours. I would expect accumulations to remain
relatively light due to low available moisture and the progressive
nature of the system. Temperatures will fall sharply Thursday night,
with lower to middle teens being widespread across the CWA.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1016 AM MST Fri Dec 15 2017

Vfr conditions are expected through the period. For Kgld, the
winds will be west southwest near 14 knots with gusts to near 20
knots until sunset. At that time, the gusts will stop as southwest
winds of near 6 knots will slowly shift to the west during the
evening and then to the northwest near sunrise. Around 16z a front
will move through and shift the winds to the north at around 12

For Kmck, until sunrise Saturday morning the winds will be west to
southwest at 7 to 12 knots. At 14z those winds will shift to the
northwest followed by another wind shift to the north at near 9
knots which will occur near 16z.




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