Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 311855
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1255 PM MDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1241 PM MDT Tue May 31 2016

Upper level trough continues to move east today across the
northern high plains and into southern Manitoba and Ontario. The
trough axis extends southwestward and will provide a focus for
scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and early
evening as a smaller shortwave pivots around the larger low.
Thunderstorm activity is expected to remain south of I70 as the
disturbance pulls off to the east and northeast and is not
expected to be widespread due to weak forcing. Severe
thunderstorms are not expected this afternoon or evening but
stronger storms could produce small hail and briefly gusty winds
mainly in the far southwestern corner of the CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 117 PM MDT Mon May 30 2016

The extended period continues to be in good agreement between the
models that the ridge in the western CONUS is still impacting the
CWA. Friday and Saturday still show dry, warm conditions over the
region. For Sunday and Monday night, there are chances for some
precipitation. Current model runs show potential for rain/storms due
to a closed low, that has been sitting over central California,
being pushed and absorbed into the ridges flow those days. With this
happening, moisture from Mexico/Gulf of Mexico gets pulled up and
helps with precip chances. The GFS and European are differing with
precip chances on Sunday. The GFS doesn`t show anything whereas the
Euro does. For Monday, models are in agreement but timing is a
little different; this could be due to the exact placement of the
ridge in the west and the trough in the east. Time will tell which
one holds true. Currently, Monday night looks best for storm
potential with surface CAPEs around 1000 J/kg and bulk shear around
45 kts. Will keep an eye on the storm potential as the day draws
closer.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1028 AM MDT Tue May 31 2016

VFR conditions will prevail at both TAF sites this afternoon. A
few showers and thunderstorms could develop south of interstate 70
however confidence is low that any of these storms would approach
the vicinity of KGLD.


&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...TL



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