000
FXUS63 KGLD 301202
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
602 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERN IS THE ONGOING LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL AND EXPECTED REDEVELOPMENT OF RAINFALL OVER
AREAS THAT ALREADY RECEIVED SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL LAST EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.  WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA INTACT
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

THE BULK OF THE MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES THROUGH
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TODAY...TAKING THE
FAVORED AREA OF HEAVIER RAINFALL WITH IT OUT OF THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS REGION AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN AND ROCKY
MOUNTAIN REGION WITH NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION WITH GENERALLY HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER WARMER
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AND DEAMPLIFY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THIS HAPPENS...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE
MONDAY ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE. THERE IS AGREEMENT IN THE
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE ON THIS GENERAL TREND BUT DETAILS ON TIMING
AND HOW MUCH THE THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN HAVE NOT YET BEEN
RESOLVED AT THAT TIME PERIOD. NEVERTHELESS ABOVE CLIMO POP IS
WARRANTED ON TUESDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL
PRECEDE THE SHORTWAVE WITH SOME CONVECTION ENCROACHING ON THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS EARLY AS MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 554 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BOUNCE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR THROUGH
ABOUT 15Z AT BOTH MCK AND GLD DUE MAINLY TO LOW CEILINGS. GLD IS
MORE LIKELY TO SEE A RAIN SHOWER THAN MCK...BUT BOTH LOCATIONS
WILL HAVE IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY 19Z AS LOW CLOUDS DIMINISH AND
SHOWERS BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AS DRYER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM
AT GLD THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND SUNSET AND
THEN BECOMING LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AFTER 09Z THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 PM MDT /4 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KSZ027-041-042.

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ090>092.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...BRB
AVIATION...LOCKHART