000
FXUS63 KGLD 080910
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
210 AM MST SUN DEC 8 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST SUN DEC 8 2013

TODAY-TONIGHT...BASE OF UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER UTAH AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA LATE THIS
MORNING EXITING THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST BY DARK. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH BUT
THIS IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. SATURATED
AIRMASS AROUND/BELOW 850MB WITH SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE FAVORABLE
PORTION OF THE DENDRITIC LAYER EARLY THIS MORNING PRODUCING SOME
FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THIS MORNING BEFORE
MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE ALOFT AND DYNAMICS FROM APPROACHING TROUGH
MOVE IN PRODUCING MORE OF A LIGHT SNOW VS FLURRIES. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS UPPER
WAVE MOVES BY. DRY FORECAST EXPECTED TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
10-15 GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WITH 15-20 TO THE
SOUTH. LOWS TONIGHT COLDEST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE WITH
ZERO TO 10-15 BELOW ZERO...COLDEST IN WESTERN KIT CARSON COUNTY. TO
THE SOUTH THINK THAT PROXIMITY TO APPROACHING CIRRUS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MAY BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM TANKING BELOW
ZERO. WIND CHILL ADVISORY PROBABLY NEEDED FROM KIT CARSON TO
GOODLAND AND OBERLIN NORTH AS VALUES FALL INTO THE -15F TO -20F
RANGE.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY
BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS MID MORNING. REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD GENERALLY CLEAR. HIGH TEMPERATURES MID TEENS TO AROUND 20 IN
FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW 20S EAST OF THE BORDER. LOWS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW ZERO TO A FEW ABOVE IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH
AROUND 5 ABOVE ELSEWHERE. THINK THAT SUSTAINED WEST WINDS AROUND 10
MPH SHOULD KEEP THINGS MIXED ENOUGH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD BELOW ZERO
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...WINDS MAY LIGHTEN UP JUST ENOUGH TOWARD
SUNRISE TO ALLOW PERHAPS SLIGHTLY COLDER THEN ADVERTISED READINGS.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS LATE IN
THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH.
CURRENTLY THINKING NO PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP. PAST 5 DAYS OF 850
TEMPERATURES AND BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS ALL FAVORING HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR MANY WITH POSSIBLY A FEW UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE EAST AND NEAR THE REPUBLICAN RIVER VALLEY. CANT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT A FEW LOW 40 DEGREE READINGS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY ZERO
TO 10 ABOVE...COLDEST IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MST SAT DEC 7 2013

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE HOW COLD TO KEEP TEMPERATURES THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN HOW MUCH TO WARM UP TEMPERATURES AFTER THAT.
SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC
INTO NORTH AMERICA. FLOW WAS SLIGHTLY RETROGRESSIVE IN THE PACIFIC
WITH UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST REMAINING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED.
PER 850 MB TEMPERATURE ANALYSIS THERE HAS BEEN SOME MODIFICATION IN
THE COLD LOW LEVEL AIR MASS NOW IN PLACE ALTHOUGH TODAY HAS BEEN MUCH
COLDER BECAUSE OF CLOUD COVER AND SNOWFALL.

MODELS WERE STARTING OUT FINE AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS AND WERE NOT
TOO FAR APART. AT MID LEVELS THE GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN
THE OTHER OUTPUT. THE ECMWF WAS DOING BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELD. THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF WERE DOING BEST ON THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

SUNDAY NIGHT...PRECIPITATION WILL BE DONE BY THIS PERIOD. AREA WILL
NOT ONLY BE IN SUBSIDENCE FROM EXITING SHORTWAVE BUT ALSO FROM STRONG
UPPER JET TO OUR SOUTH. LOW DEW POINTS WILL BE IN PLACE AS SURFACE
RIDGE NOSES INTO THE AREA BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. SO CONDITIONS SEEM TO
BE IN PLACE ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEST AND NORTH FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BUT THE COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE IT COULD BE
CLOSE...AS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW NIGHTS...TO ANOTHER WIND CHILL
ADVISORY.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
SOUTHERN UPPER JET. STRONG JET TO OUR NORTH WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR
NORTH. SO DURING THE NIGHT STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL BE IN PLACE.
MODELS DO SHOW A LITTLE BIT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER
MOVING THROUGH DURING THE DAY WHICH COULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE FAST
FLOW ALOFT BUT REALLY HARD TO TELL. SURFACE RIDGE THAT IS IN PLACE AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY MOVES EAST THROUGH THE DAY. 18Z NAM IS EVEN
SLOWER THAN THE 12Z NAM AND THE LATEST ECMWF IN MOVING THIS THROUGH.
THIS DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR A BIG WARM UP AND ANOTHER MUCH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY DUE TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS OR RECYCLED COLD AIR. SO WENT BELOW THE WARMER GUIDANCE AND
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR THE MAXES.

SOMEWHAT TRICKY MINS. THERE WILL BE EVEN LESS CLOUD COVER IN PLACE
THAN THE NIGHT BEFORE. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE
WESTERLY WINDS PICKING UP A LITTLE WHICH COULD HOLD UP TEMPERATURES
MORE THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. HOWEVER...DEW POINTS WILL STILL BE
RATHER LOW PLUS ANY SHORT TERM/BRIEF LETUP OF THE WINDS WOULD ALLOW
THE MINS TO PLUMMET. SO TENDED TO GO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW THE
GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY...SOME DIFFERENCES AS TO HOW MUCH TO WARM UP THE MAXES. AREA
IS STILL IN A FAST WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH COULD STILL
ALLOW OR PUSH A SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH. THE DIFFERENCES IN THE WARM
UP ARE TIED TO DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT SURFACE DEPICTIONS DESPITE
VERY SIMILAR SOLUTIONS ALOFT. IT VARIES FROM SOUTHERLY...LACK OF
DOWNSLOPE...TO STRONGER WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND BETTER MIXING
AND DOWNSLOPE. NORMALLY WOULD SAY MODELS ARE SCOURING OUT COLD AIR
TOO FAST. HOWEVER...MODELS RECENTLY HAVE BEEN NOT GETTING OUT OF
HERE FAST ENOUGH. ALSO MODELS MAY BE THINKING THERE IS A SNOW ON
THE GROUND WHEN THERE IS NOT. SO AT THIS TIME TENDED TO GO BETWEEN
THE WARMEST AND COOLEST GUIDANCE. IF WARMER GUIDANCE VERIFIES MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD GET NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE FIRST TIME
SINCE THE PREVIOUS WEDNESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NEW MODEL OUTPUT HAS EITHER WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT OR RIDGING MOVING IN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THAT MAKES FOR A
DRY FORECAST WHICH IS WHAT THE CRH_INIT GRIDS GAVE ME. SO IT COMES
DOWN TO A TEMPERATURE FORECAST. ANOTHER FRONT COMES THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WHICH DROPS MAXES ON WEDNESDAY TEMPORARILY BACK BELOW FREEZING.
A DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH AND DEVELOPING MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE WEST WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES TO RETURN FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK. IF MODELS CORRECT...ENTIRE AREA SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE
FREEZING ON THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT OR TWO WILL MOVE THROUGH
FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHEN COMPARED TO
THURSDAYS. SO ALSO ACCEPTED THE INIT TEMPERATURES GIVEN ME SINCE
THEY WERE REASONABLE PER THE PATTERN ALOFT. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT TEMPERATURES MAY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WHAT IS IN THERE NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST SUN DEC 8 2013

KGLD...MVFR AND IFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH 22Z OR SO BEFORE
IMPROVING TO VFR AS LEVEL MOISTURE MOISTURE SOURCE RESPONSIBLE
MOVES EAST OF THE TERMINAL. LIGHT SNOW AND/OR FLURRIES EXPECTED
THROUGH 22Z AS WELL. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE
WILL DECREASE AND BACK TO THE EAST THEN NORTHEAST BEFORE A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AROUND 18Z SHIFTING THEM TO A NORTHWEST DIRECTION AT
10-15KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. BY SUNSET NORTHWEST WINDS OF
5-10KTS EXPECTED.

KMCK...MVFR AND IFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z OR SO BEFORE
IMPROVING TO VFR. LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. BY 22Z PRECIP SHOULD BE DONE WITH. EAST
WINDS AROUND 10KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE BY
17Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 20Z. AROUND 21Z FRONT MOVES THROUGH
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AT 10KTS OR SO FOR A FEW HOURS.
DURING THE TONIGHT PERIOD NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 7KTS EXPECTED.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...99