000
FXUS63 KGLD 102136
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
336 PM MDT MON MAR 10 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 332 PM MDT MON MAR 10 2014

NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF
YUMA AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES UNTIL NEAR SUNSET. AT THIS TIME WINDS
HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTANTLY GUSTING TO 25 MPH...WHICH IS THE SPEED
NEEDED FOR A FIRE WEATHER HIGHLITE. THEREFORE DO NOT PLAN ON
ISSUING A HIGHLITE AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER AM EXPECTING CONDITIONS
TO MEET CRITERIA BRIEFLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON FOR
THESE TWO COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT MON MAR 10 2014

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS WARM AND DRY FOR THE REST OF TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL LOW SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
POCKETS OF VORTICITY WILL PROVIDE LIFT FOR CLOUD COVER DEVELOPMENT
IN EASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SPLIT WITH
PLENTY OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT...WHICH WILL HELP WITH SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS TOWARD CENTRAL KANSAS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE VERY LOW AS PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT MIXES
DOWN TO THE SURFACE...BUT LIGHT WINDS UNDER THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
NOT ALLOW FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO BE PRESENT OVER
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
SYSTEM APPROACHES...WHICH SHOULD KEEP SURFACE TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER
THAN MORE RECENT NIGHTS. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL TOP OUT AROUND
NOON BEFORE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE
AREA THROUGHOUT THE REST OF TOMORROW.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR TOMORROW WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. RAIN WILL BECOME A RAIN
SNOW MIX AND THEN TO SNOW TOWARD SUNSET. NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM. CYCLOGENESIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WHICH WILL BRING GUSTY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN NEBRASKA...BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY
FOR RED WILLOW...HITCHCOCK...AND DUNDY COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE IN
COLORADO AND KANSAS...ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY DUE TO SHARP PRESSURE
GRADIENT AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT MON MAR 10 2014

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES WITH SNOW OVER
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW DECREASING
MOISTURE BY 03Z WED WITH POPS DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THAT.
FOR REMAINING PERIODS, PLAN TO START THE TUESDAY EVENING PERIOD WITH
CHANCE POPS. SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER BY 06Z WITH RESULTING NIL POPS
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 20S.  MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 50 WITH AROUND 60 FOR THURSDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF A RIDGE THAT WILL MOVE INTO
THE ROCKIES MONDAY.  A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE
FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DYNAMICS FROM
BOTH OF THESE TROUGHS ARE LACKING MOISTURE OVER THE FA AND DYNAMICS
ARE OUTSIDE OF THE FA AS WELL.  CONSEQUENTLY POPS WILL BE NIL.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RESIDE IN THE LOWER 30S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 55 TO 60.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT MON MAR 10 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE DURATION OF
THE TAF PERIOD. THE MAIN AREA FOR CONCERN WILL BE INCREASED
CHANCES FOR HIGH WIND GUSTS FOR BOTH GLD AND MCK AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE TRI STATE AREA TOMORROW MORNING. THERE WILL BE
SOME CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH SITES AS WELL LATER
IN THE MORNING HOURS...BUT LEFT IT OUT OF THE TAF AT THIS TIME DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY OF PRECIPITATION TYPE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ TO 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/
     TUESDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ090>092.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...MK