Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 302318
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
518 PM MDT Sun Apr 30 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 311 PM MDT Sun Apr 30 2017

Latest upper level analysis shows the closed low along the KS/OK
border moving east.  Current radar shows a band of moderate to heavy
snow continuing over the Tri-State Area.  Under the band blizzard
conditions continue.

Tonight the band of moderate to heavy snow will shift northeast.
This will cause blizzard conditions to either persist or return.
Temperature lapse rates continue to hint at convective snowfall.  An
additional two or three inches is expected with this snow band.
However locally higher amounts of five inches can`t be ruled out due
to the convective nature and reported 3"/hour rates under the band
earlier today.  The snow and blizzard conditions will exit the
forecast area late this evening.  Winds should also sharply decline
around sunset and be light to breezy through the rest of the night.

Regarding current warnings, have canceled the high wind warning due
to the threat for high winds ending.  Considered canceling counties
on the back side of the blizzard but hesitate to if the heavy band
of snow shifts slightly west again.  As the snow moves northeast
next shift can cancel blizzard warning as conditions improve from
southwest to northeast.

Monday will be warmer as northwest flow moves over the forecast
area.  Despite going cooler than almost all guidance, highs maybe
too warm, especially where the heavy snowfall occurred.  Winds will
be a bit breezy west of the deeper snow field where the air will be
warmer.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 233 AM MDT Sun Apr 30 2017

There will be some chances for rain during the day Wednesday as a
positively tilted trough transverses the CWA. Not expecting huge
amounts of QPF. Could see around tenth of an inch in our eastern
counties.

The remainder of the extended looks to be quiet as upper level
ridging dominates the weather here in the Central High Plains.
Temperatures look to warm through the period and should be above
normal, peaking on Sunday with highs near 80.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 518 PM MDT Sun Apr 30 2017

At KGLD...winter storm has ended and VFR expected through the TAF
period. Mid and high clouds will gradually erode through tonight
as the storm moves eastward.

At KMCK...band of light snow will gradually dissipate this evening
as the upper low pulls away from the area. Visibility restrictions
due to snow and blowing snow will improve to VFR by mid to late
evening, as will ceilings. VFR expected to prevail overnight and
through Monday.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Blizzard Warning until 1 AM CDT Monday for KSZ002>004-014>016-
     028-029-042.

CO...NONE.
NE...Blizzard Warning until 1 AM CDT Monday for NEZ080-081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...SME
AVIATION...024



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