Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGLD 230831
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
231 AM MDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1121 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO REMOVE MENTION OF HIGHER POPS FOR TRW. MOST
ACTIVITY HAS CLEARED THE REGION WITH ONLY NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA
STILL SEEING TRW/RW. CLEARING TREND FOR PRECIP WILL CONTINUE WITH
SOME ISOLATED RW/TRW POSSIBLE THRU 12Z SATURDAY. HAVE ALSO
MENTIONED PATCHY FOG FOR ALL AREAS GIVING THAT AREA HAS SEEN
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN IN SPOTS...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR
DECREASING WINDS AND SOME CLRING AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE COVERAGE AND SEVERITY THUNDERSTORMS. AS
STATED IN EARLIER AFD. STRONGER AND NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE LOW
TO OUR SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH OUTFLOW FROM PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO HAS KEPT THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH FROM
MOVING VERY FAR NORTH. I HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS BUT STILL MAY NOT
HAVE GOT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. MESOSCALE GUIDANCE AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THIS WITH A FRONTAL POSITION SOUTH
OF THE INTERSTATE.

ALSO OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO HAS SETTLED OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. MID AND UPPER LIFT HAS KEPT
THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. THIS LOW
LEVEL/MESOSCALE LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED BY INCOMING STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO OUR SOUTH IN ADDITION THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET
THAT AFFECTS THE AREA INTO THE NIGHT.

SO HAVE PULLED LIKELY AND HIGHER POPS FURTHER SOUTH TO REFLECT
EXPECTED FRONTAL POSITION. ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE/HELICITY
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS. DO EXPECT STORMS TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BEFORE ENDING
SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. THERE MAY BE SOME STRATUS FOG BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL INCREASE ENOUGH FROM THE SOUTH.

FOR TOMORROW SLOWED UP THE ARRIVAL OF THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS HAVING SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE FRINGES OF THE
AREA. SLIGHTLY REDUCED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT SAT AUG 23 2014

A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CONUS ON TUESDAY AND
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
THE UPPER FLOW WILL FUNNEL PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS REGION AHEAD OF THE ASCENT PROVIDED BY THE ENSUING
TROUGH...WHICH WILL BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET EXITS...THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY AS WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW.  TEMPERATURES IN THE LATE WEEK WILL BE RETURNING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LIMITED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROVIDES WIDE SCALE SUBSIDENCE TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

RW/TRW FROM EARLIER WILL GIVE WAY TO FOGGY CONDITIONS THRU 13Z
SATURDAY. EXPECTING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO SET UP AS WINDS
SLACKEN GIVING GLD/MCK 3-4SM WITH 1 1/2SM AT TIMES. BY 13Z...VFR
CONDITIONS W/ SCT LOW/MID CLDS. WINDS BECM LGT/VAR THEN BY 13Z WSW
5-10KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JN


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.