000
FXUS63 KGLD 240508
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1108 PM MDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 508 PM MDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Update to forecast to add in a slight chance for rw/trw over
portions of NE Colorado for the next few hrs. Latest radar
showing precipitation edging slow eastward.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 202 PM MDT Wed Aug 23 2017

KGLD has remained precip free today. This trend is expected to
continue well into the overnight period and into tomorrow. After 18Z
pops will increase quickly to accommodate convective initiation.
As the high pressure weakens and shifts to the east, from the
west a mid-level trough will move into our area. This will help
increase instability and, in addition, southerly flow will bring
in moisture increasing pwats. With this we are expecting a
marginal risk for large hail and damaging winds, as well as a more
localized threat for heavy rain and flash flooding Thursday
afternoon/evening. Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower
60s with highs in the mid 80s tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 210 PM MDT Wed Aug 23 2017

A wet and dry period will be present during the extended period.
To start off on Thursday night, a shortwave tough is expected to
move over the region. This will move east across eastern Colorado
during the early afternoon and is anticipated to move over the
area during the late afternoon hours. So storm development is
expected around that time and will continue into the evening
hours. CAPEs are favorable but there isn`t much shearing. So
storms may or may not become severe.

Friday and Saturday are similar. They both see northwest flow and
are impacted by shortwaves moving over the region. Saturday has the
most predominant shortwave. So precipitation chances are possible
both days.

Sunday though Wednesday are expected to be the drier days during the
period. A very strong ridge is in place over the western CONUS. This
ridge will keep a north flow over the region. So there may be times
with pop up precipitation chances but for the most part drier
conditions will prevail.

Temperatures during the period will primarily stay in the 80s.&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1122 AM MDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Throughout the remainder of the TAF period, VFR conditions are
expected to prevail at the GLD and MCK terminals. Gusty winds will
diminish after sunset tonight.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1108 PM MDT Wed Aug 23 2017

VFR conditions expected for both taf sites at this time. There is
the chance for precipitation across the region after the midday
timeframe. Timing issues of any potential storms that could
develop near low confidence...prompting VCSH mention for now from
19z-20z Thursday thru 01z-03z Friday.

Winds for KGLD...S around 10kts increasing to 15-25kts from 19z-
03z.

Winds for KGLD...SE around 10kts thru 11z...then S 5-15kts. Gusts
to 20kts from 20z-01z.

LLWS for both sites from 06z-11z. For KGLD...200@40kts. For
KMCK...210@35kts.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...EV
LONG TERM...SME
AVIATION...JN