Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 012036

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
236 PM MDT SAT OCT 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 236 PM MDT Sat Oct 1 2016

Latest upper air analysis shows an upper level ridge over the plains
with a trough approaching the coast.  Over the Tri-State Area a few
rain showers had appeared where weak isentropic lift had developed.
Anticipate these to only be producing virga so will continue with a
dry forecast.

For tonight and Sunday dry weather will continue as the ridge
persists over the plains.  High temperatures will be a few degrees
warmer Sunday than today due to the increased warm air advection
from the breezy low level jet mixing to the ground.  The stronger
low level jet which will also cause winds to be slightly stronger
than today.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 236 PM MDT Sat Oct 1 2016

Diffluent flow aloft ahead of deepening upper low remains in place
through Monday before large scale trough shifts eastward across the
plains Monday night. Despite large scale forcing, moisture will be
highly limited until late Monday afternoon through Monday night
mainly in our east. Marginal CAPE values in our east Monday
afternoon and evening may support a few stronger updrafts, and
increasing shear late could support an isolated severe threat. In
any case this activity would tend to quickly transition eastward as
a cold front moves over our CWA. Guidance has continued it`s
eastward trend on Tuesday/Tuesday night and now confidence is low
that we would see any precipitation in all but our far east (if that).

Temperatures Monday are still expected to be well above normal with
highs in the mid 80s. Windy conditions are also expected due to deep
unidirectional flow ahead of upper low, and gusts around 45 mph will
be possible. In far eastern colorado RH values will likely drop to
20 percent or lower, but remain just above RFW criteria.
Temperatures will trend downward as a post frontal air mass lingers

Wed-Thursday Night: First upper low transitions across the Northern
Plains and Great Lakes and by Wednesday a second trough originating
in British Columbia drops south behind it across the Central Rockies
into the High Plains. A strong cold front associated with this this
trough will move through our CWA Thursday or Thursday night. This
may bring the coldest air mas to our CWA so far far this season with
GFS showing H85 temps around 0C.

This pattern will set the stage for increasing precip chances late
Wednesday night through Thursday. There will also be the possibility
for frost conditions in our west Wednesday and Thursday mornings,
followed by possible freeze conditions Friday morning across our CWA.
The air mass behind this front is actually cold enough that as the
front moves through if there is ongoing precip (as GFS indicates) we
could actually see a brief period of a rain/snow mix or light snow.
Confidence was too low in precip type to introduce this at this
time. Due to the uncertainty in the timing of this front, I have
less confidence in highs particularly on Thursday when falling temps
in the afternoon are possible.

Friday-Saturday: Westerly flow reestablishes itself during these
periods favoring a deep dry air mass and a warming trend back
towards seasonal highs in the 70s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1136 AM MDT Sat Oct 1 2016

VFR conditions expected to for the TAFs. Light winds will continue
through period.


.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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