Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 181125
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
525 AM MDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT MON AUG 18 2014

UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN ARIZONA/WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
MORNING IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST INTO TEXAS BY 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW DIVES SOUTH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. FOR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHERE ITS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TODAY-TONIGHT...AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES...LOOKS LIKE A
WEATHER DISTURBANCE REACHES THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST 1/3 OF THE
AREA IN THE MID EVENING-OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE FIRST SYSTEM INTERACTS
WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO
AT LEAST PRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS. THE SECOND SYSTEM MAY BE
A BIT MORE ORGANIZED AND FORM A SMALL CLUSTER OR MCS TYPE OF STORM
AS IT MOVES ALONG STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LOW LEVEL JET
FEEDING INTO IT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S. A
FEW 100 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE FROM GOVE WEST AND SOUTH THROUGH
TRIBUNE AND LEOTI. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN EASTERN
COLORADO WITH LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...PREVIOUS DAYS FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST TOWARD OUR FAR NORTH/NORTHEAST ZONES BY THE END
OF THE DAY TUESDAY THEN NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT. BY 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING BETTER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
NORTHWEST 1/4 OF THE AREA WHERE NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND SFC LOW MOVE
IN. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES...PLUME OF BETTER MONSOONAL (700-
300) MOISTURE STARTS TO INFRINGE ON THE FAR WEST/NORTHWEST PORTIONS
OF THE AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL REMOVE DAYTIME POPS
KEEPING HIGHEST SILENT POPS TIED TO THE NORTHEASTWARD MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ENHANCED.
CONFIDENCE JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR PRECIP MENTION AT TIME. TUESDAY
NIGHT SHOULD ALSO BE DRY. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S IN EASTERN COLORADO...MID TO UPPER 90S ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 1.25 TO 1.60 INCHES MOVES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT. A FEW MODELS SUGGESTING A
WEATHER DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE PLUME OF MOISTURE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. AS IT INTERACTS WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
AREA SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH MID
TO UPPER 90S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT MON AUG 18 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING ACROSS A NUMBER OF MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND THE PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE AN UPPER HIGH WITH STRENGTHEN OVER THE
TEXARKANA REGION WHILE A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
PERSISTS...WHICH WILL KEEP MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. THIS MONSOONAL FLOW WILL BRING MOISTURE-RICH
AIR TO THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RESULTING IN THE POSSIBILITY
OF INTENSE RAINFALL. LATE FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION BRINGING A COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP LOOK LIKE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. LATE FRIDAY THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL RESULT IN RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIN CAPE
PROFILES WILL NOT SUPPORT STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND STORM
MOTIONS SHOULD BE SWIFT ENOUGH TO PREVENT FLOODING CONCERNS DESPITE
PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES. ON SATURDAY STORM MOTIONS WILL BE
MUCH SLOWER AND CAPE PROFILES LARGER /1000 TO 1500 J/KG MUCAPE/ TO
SUPPORT STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE 0-6KM SHEAR IN THE 10-15KT RANGE...SO ORGANIZED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERN DUE TO SLOW STORM MOTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 525 AM MDT MON AUG 18 2014

KGLD...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEST WINDS 5-10KTS AT TAF
ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10KTS
BY 13Z OR 14Z. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AROUND TO THE NORTH BY
16Z THEN NORTHEAST BY 17Z-18Z WITH SPEEDS 10KTS OR LESS. BY 20-21Z
WINDS VEER TO THE EAST UNDER 10KTS AND REMAIN THROUGH 06Z. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS THEN DEVELOP FROM 07Z-12Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE AFTER 22Z WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE
05Z-06Z TIME FRAME. RIGHT NOW HAVE ADDED A PROB30 FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE 04Z-07Z TIME FRAME.

KMCK...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND FORECAST SIMILAR TO
KGLD. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE 03Z TO 09Z TIME FRAME AS A
WEATHER DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. WILL HAVE
A PROB30 FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE 05Z-08Z TIME FRAME.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...99



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