Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 241118

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
518 AM MDT Mon Oct 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 241 AM MDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Early morning WV imagery and RAP analysis shows large scale
ridging continuing to dominate the pattern across the central
US. At the surface as front is stalled along the front range, with
high pressure centered over the northern Mississippi River Valley
extending south and west towards our CWA.

H5 ridge flattens as a shortwave trough (currently over the Pacific
NW) propagates eastward through the Northern Plains then through
central KS Tuesday-Tuesday night. Ridging then rebuilds over the
Central Rockies and Plains Wednesday. While temps are slight cooler
today (upper 60s/lower 70s) they are still above normal (by about
10F)...and temps will only trend upwards over the next few days.
This pattern will tend to keep very dry conditions in place through
these periods.

Return flow ahead of this upper level shortwave trough and
associated (weak) cold front is still advertised tonight and
Tuesday morning, and should bring bountiful BL moisture to our
CWA. SREF/NAM/ARW/NMM all show fog/stratus developing and there is
potential for dense fog to develop as moisture pools along the
prefrontal surface trough. Drier BL air may begin to move eastward
due to shift in flow to the southwest behind surface trough, which
could help erode the western extent of the fog/stratus or help
clearing from the west to the east. For now I kept fog mention in
place with no major changes midnight tonight through Tuesday

Regarding shower/thunderstorm chances Tuesday: The upper
level shortwave trough and H3 jet streak that move through our
region Tuesday will lead to good forcing in our east. Air mass below
600mb remains dry, and main CAPE axis will remain ahead of of
surface trough. This surface trough would also act as main focus for
initation Tuesday afternoon/evening and guidance continues to trend
eastward. Due to limited instability in our east and the very dry
low levels confidence is low in any measurable showers or
thunderstorms. Guidance still has a very small area in our
southeast, but considering trends I wouldn`t be surprised if even
this is pulled east with next run of models.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 241 AM MDT Mon Oct 24 2016

H5 ridge dominates the long term pattern with above normal
temperatures and generally dry weather. Northwest flow aloft on
Thursday will become westerly as the ridge axis pushes eastward
out of the central Rockies and into the central Plains on
Friday. A deep trough will traverse the northern Plains and the
southern Canadian Plains Friday afternoon and turn the upper flow
northwestward once more. No precipitation is expected as the
associated weak cold front and trough traverse the region. The
ridge amplitude increases as we head into Saturday and Sunday with
dry conditions continuing into the beginning of next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 518 AM MDT Mon Oct 24 2016

VFR conditions will prevail through this evening, with the main
aviation concern during the day being 12-18kt winds during the
afternoon at both terminals. Fog and stratus is expected to
develop after midnight, with IFR conditions likely at both KGLD
and KMCK by 12Z Tuesday morning. VLIFR conditions are possible if
dense fog develops as a lot of guidance is beginning to indicate.
There will be drier air to the west trying to filter eastward
towards KGLD and then eventually KMCK, so I am not confident that
VLIFR conditions will prevail at this point. Subsequent updates
will be able to fine tune the timing/duration of these lower
conditions as confidence increases and the fog/stratus event is
closer in time.




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