Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 150526

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1026 PM MST Wed Feb 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 139 PM MST Wed Feb 14 2018

Across the Tri State region this afternoon...skies remain cloudy
with a veil of mid/high cloud slowly moving over the area. Temps are
currently ranging mainly in the 50s...with a few locales in the far
NE in the 40s. Looking for temps to remain fairly steady thru the
remainder of the day...with some areas continuing to increase as SSW
flow works into the area.

Going into cover to remain cross the area as the
region lies just north and west of a front/trough combo. The result
of the cloud cover remaining and SSW surface flow...will give the
area overnight lows in the upper 20s thru the 30s.

For Thursday...early high temps expected across the region as arctic
front traverses the area by midday from N to S. Based on latest
model data...front goes thru the region with limited QPF thru the
afternoon...with only chance for precipitation before 00z Friday
being into portions of NE CO as northerly flow behind the front
shifts a bit easterly allowing for minor upslope effects. Winds
however will accompany the passage of the front to the area...with
15 to 25 mph very likely...especially late in the day. Looking for
early daytime highs to range from the upper 40s near 60F

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 137 PM MST Wed Feb 14 2018

Shortwave trough and associated cold front are still expected to
pass over our CWA Thursday night. ECMWF/NAM/GFS are showing similar
timing on front and period of rain changing to snow Thursday evening
transitioning south Thursday night. With better model consistency
confidence has increased on overall chance for precipitation in our
west, however amounts still would be light due to the progressive
nature of any rain/snow and limited moisture advection. Current
model consensus is around one half inch of snow in our far west,
quickly tapering further east.

Friday-Sunday: Temps will be colder in the post frontal air mass
Friday, however we should see moderation in air mass aloft due to
westerly flow and lee troughing (developing low level southerly
flow) and the colder air will not hang around. Better WAA is shown
Saturday and especially Sunday and we should see above normal highs
return. Sunday may be in the 60s or even lower 70s deepening on cloud
cover and the timing of the next trough/front. This pattern will
also support dry conditions persisting, and we may see near critical
(or even critical) fire weather conditions develop Sunday afternoon.

Monday-Wednesday: Large scale trough builds across the Intermountain
West, and an arctic front will push south over our CWA Sunday night
and Monday morning. Forcing appears to split around our CWA, but we
may still have some periods of light snowfall in this pattern, but
confidence is low due to variance in timing/evolution of the trough
as it finally starts shifting eastward. Confidence is high in
lowering temps and I made downward adjustments in addition to trends
already reflected in consensus blends. Ultimately we may still end
up being too warm at the current time.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1021 PM MST Wed Feb 14 2018

Vfr conditions are expected through most of the period. For Kgld,
the winds will start out west near 10 knots and will shift to the
northwest by late morning. Around 21z a strong cold front will
move through and shift the winds to the north at near 18 knots
with gusts to near 26 knots. Around 02z those winds will increase
to near 20 knots with gusts to near 28 knots. At that time mvfr
conditions will develop.

For Kmck, light and variable winds will shift to the northwest at
near 8 knots around 09z. These winds remain until 22z. At that
time, the cold front will move through and shift the winds to the
north at 15 knots with gusts to near 25 knots. Near 01z those
winds will increase to near 20 knots with gusts to near 28 knots.
Also at that time mvfr conditions will develop.




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