000
FXUS63 KGLD 290533
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1133 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING: BEST CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
ACROSS CWA LOOK TO BE CONFINED TO NE COLORADO AND FAR NW KANSAS
GENERALLY WEST OF A BENKELMAN TO KANORADO TO CHEYENNE WELLS LINE.
0-6 KM MEAN FLOW IS ONLY ABOUT 5-10 KTS SO ANY CELLS WONT MAKE TOO
MUCH PROGRESS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. LOCATION OF BETTER POPS ARE
BASED ON LOCATION OF DEVELOPING CU FIELD AND TO SOME EXTENT THE
LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR. A BRIEF SHOWER ALREADY POPPED UP AND
DISSIPATED OVER YUMA COUNTY AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING. REMOVED POPS FOR SOUTHWEST AREAS /GREELEY-WICHITA/ AND
KEPT EAST DRY AS BEFORE. MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK OVER GREELEY AND
WICHITA COUNTIES IS FINALLY THINNING BUT IT HAS KEPT TEMPS ON THE
COOL SIDE WITH TRIBUNE ONLY AT 73 DEGREES AT 1 PM MDT. CURRENT
THINKING IS THIS AREA WILL BE TOO STABLE FOR ANY AFTERNOON
REDEVELOPMENT.

ALL MODELS SHOW DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE LAST HALF OF TONIGHT
CONTINUING INTO MUCH OF TUESDAY AND REALLY DONT BRING BIG QPF INTO
THE AREA UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SLOWED THE DEVELOPMENT
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY BASED ON LATEST
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND RAMPED THINGS UP MORE IN THE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THIS...KEPT TUESDAY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 80S
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST COUNTIES TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT...DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL PRODUCE DECENT UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION.
SURFACE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO AID LIFT. THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY MOIST. BY 06Z PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RANGE
FROM 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW...AROUND
FIVE KNOTS. SO...WILL KEEP HIGH POPS GOING IN THE FORECAST WITH A
MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF.

WEDNESDAY...THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SATURATED THROUGH
18Z...THEN WILL SLOWLY DRY AS 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SOUTH
OF THE AREA. WILL INDICATE HIGH POPS IN THE MORNING WITH DECREASING
CHANCES OF RAIN AFTER 18Z. GENERAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL WEST OF
HIGHWAY 83 IS BETWEEN 0.50 AND 1.00 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
ACROSS WICHITA AND GREELEY COUNTIES. HOWEVER...EXPECT A FEW AREAS
TO RECEIVE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL UNDER EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND COOL 850 MB TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL...HELD ON TO A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING GIVEN DECENT MODEL
CONSISTENCY. NORTHWEST FLOW THEN ADVECTS DRIER AIR TO THE AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE
FRONT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN MOVE OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS.

THOUGH THERE WILL A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SURFACE BOUNDARIES...EXPECT
THE AIR MASS TO BECOME UNSTABLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS FAR
EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES BETWEEN
500-1000 J/KG. WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THAT AREA.

THE STRONGEST MODEL-DEPICTED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

AFTER SATURDAY...LEANED TOWARDS THE WARMER AND DRIER ECMWF. CONFIDENCE
IN THE LATTER PERIODS...HOWEVER...IS NOT HIGH GIVEN MODEL SPREADS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER,
SOME STRATUS (MVFR) MAY DEVELOP AT KGLD WITH HIGHER BOUNDARY
LAYER RH PROGGED IN THE AREA. THE FORECAST SOUNDING IS NOT AS
SATURATED NEAR THE SURFACE AS KGLD AT THAT TIME. THE STRATUS
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. INCREASING CHANCES OF
THUNDERTORMS WILL OCCUR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER CHANCES
TUESDAY EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES
DUE TO VERY SLOW STORM MOVEMENT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...MENTZER
AVIATION...FS