893
FXUS63 KGLD 261050
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
450 AM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild weather is forecast today with clear skies and lighter
  winds. There could be a few sub-severe storms this afternoon
  and evening.

- Another round of potentially severe storms are expected Friday
  afternoon into the evening hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1220 AM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025

The remainder of the early morning hours are expected to see storm
activity lower and push east of the area as the air becomes more
stable, outflows push off to the east, and the upper shortwave also
shifts east. With the remnants of showers and storms upstream in
Central Colorado, skies are forecast to remain cloudy through the
night and help keep temperatures generally in the 60s.

For today, a fairly mild day is forecast for the area as the upper
pattern over the area is forecast to be somewhat zonal, keeping the
flow weak. With the weak flow, winds are forecast to be lighter
around 5 to 15 mph tomorrow. Sunny skies are forecast for the area
due to marginally drier air that is forecast to push into the area,
allowing temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 80s.

Late in the afternoon and evening, there is the possibility of a few
storms as guidance hints at a very weak upper low upstream of the
area with a weak surface low pushing through the area. On top of
causing the winds to slowly shift to out of the east during the day,
these features may allow some storms to develop either over the
higher terrain in Eastern Colorado or along convergence boundaries.
With the drier air in place, storm coverage and intensity are
forecast to be fairly low, potentially with no storms forming at all.
If storms did form while the surface low pulled in some more
moisture, we could see storms pop up across more of the area along
outflow boundaries. Even then, storms would be unlikely to be severe
or long lived.

Tonight, some cloud cover could linger if storms managed to form,
but otherwise mostly clear skies are forecast. Winds are also
forecast to be light as the pressure gradient weakens. With this,
low temperatures should cool to near dewpoints around 60
degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1255 PM MDT Wed Jun 25 2025

A weak shortwave trough sliding through the lee side of the
Rockies and a weak surface low over southeast Wyoming and
western Nebraska will tap into a marginally unstable atmosphere
across the western and northern portions of the CWA to produce
some isolated convective activity late Friday afternoon into
Friday evening along a weak dry line boundary. Any storms that
form should be very short-lived and isolated as a lack of
moisture and limited deep layer forcing will keep updrafts from
sustaining themselves for any long period of time. Temperatures
will also be significantly warmer on Friday as the drier airmass
easily heats up into the low to mid 90s.

The heat will be on this Saturday as a weak shortwave ridge
builds over the area. Increased subsidence will limit cloud
development and allow highs to climb into the upper 90s or a
good 10 degrees above average. Although overall rain chances
will be low, there could be enough heating to overcome a weak
capping inversion aloft by the late afternoon and evening that
will support an isolated thunderstorm. If storms fire up, they
could produce some gusty winds due to the dry airmass in place
aloft.

Heading into next week from Sunday through Wednesday, a
deepening longwave ridge over the western third of the CONUS
will allow a deep layer northwest flow regime to take hold in
the upper levels. Unfortunately, this sets up a decent pattern
for a series of mesoscale convective complexes to form over
eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska and then sweep to the
southeast across the forecast area each evening as the system
follows the theta e axis. Confidence on this scenario is a bit
lower than average, but is something we need to monitor over the
next couple of days as both a heavy rainfall and severe weather
threat could accompany any MCS that forms. The northwest flow
pattern will allow for cooler temperatures to filter in with
highs cooling back into the mid 80s for next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 443 AM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025

This morning, both KGLD and KMCK have a chance at seeing MVFR
ceilings until about 15-16Z. However, for KGLD, any cloud deck
looks to be very sparse, so no TEMPO was included. KMCK has been
in and out of MVFR over the past couple of hours, and also has a
slim chance to see some patchy fog add to the MVFR conditions.
Winds through the period will start off favoring the northwest,
before northeast, and eventually southeast by tomorrow morning.
Winds look to be generally weak, so I opted to go with variable
instead of noting each 60 degree change. The light, easterly
winds tomorrow morning could allow fog to form around KMCK, but
not enough confidence exists to put it in the TAFs.

There is a <5% chance KGLD and KMCK could see some storms
around 23-2Z, so keep an eye out for that!

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...Grigsby
AVIATION...CA