Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 170945

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
245 AM MST Wed Jan 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 245 AM MST Wed Jan 17 2018

Upper ridge will continue to dominate the short term period,
resulting in dry conditions and warming temperatures. Southwest
part of the area may approach record highs by Friday, with warming
aided by southwesterly surface winds ahead of a surface trough. No
precipitation is expected through the short term period, although
the SREF continues to suggest fog/freezing fog will be possible
Thursday morning in eastern areas from McCook to Hill City.
Confidence remains rather low given the westerly winds at the
surface, but the SREF has been consistently showing this for a
couple of days now, so will introduce a mention of patchy freezing

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 211 AM MST Wed Jan 17 2018

For the Extended period...the main wx concern for the region will be
the H5/H7 trough that shifts eastward into the Plains region by late
in the day Saturday/Saturday evening. This trough will become a
closed off system overnight Saturday into Sunday before exiting by
Sunday afternoon/evening from west to east.

Going into next week...dry wx returns as H5 ridging builds over the
west coast then eastwards into the central Rockies. A shortwave does
work southward along the eastern side of the Rockies. Current model
track has this triggering a few light areas of precipitation...and
based on track only potentially affecting mainly areas south of
Interstate 70 and west of Highway 27.

For the upcoming weekend system...some model consensus on track w/
low passing over Kansas by Saturday evening. This track is closer
than the previous system...and will allow for more WAA to work into
the area as the system passes. The introduction of the warmer air
due to the closer passage of the low is going to give the area
rain/snow mix for the event. Best chances for light snowfall accum
will occur at night. Daytime highs ahead of the system on Saturday
will reach into the mid 40s the upper 50s south. Sunday
will have mid and upper 30s. Low level moisture support does look to
stay east of the region as the surface low associated with the upper
system gets too far east before trough/low move into the area.

850 trough looks strong enough to aid in enhancement of precip...but
QPF will be light. with rain mixing into the p-type mix thru the
daytime hrs Sunday...low snow totals expected...even after wrap-
around occurs Sunday night. Based on latest guidance...will be
looking any snow to total 0.5 inches or less south of Interstate 70
to around 1-2 inches along and north of the Interstate. Highest
totals in northern tier zones. Some localized amounts nearing 3
inches are possible along the KS/NE border into Yuma county in NE

Strong northerly surface flow does work into the region late
Saturday on into Sunday night. 15 to 30 mph gusts are possible that
could make blowing snow/reduced visibility a possibility. But most
likely late Sunday onward as cold air over the region to remove any
chance for rain...and then all snow thereafter.

Wind chill readings will drop into the single numbers above zero
based on current readings for the Sunday night/Monday morning

Overall for temps...Saturday to end up the warmest day ahead of
precip with highs in the mid 40s to the upper way to
mid to upper 30s Sunday as CAA works thru the region. Mainly 40s
return for the beginning of next week. Overnight lows will range
from the upper teens into the mid 20s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1007 PM MST Tue Jan 16 2018

Throughout the remainder of the TAF period, VFR conditions are
expected to prevail at both the McCook and Goodland terminals.
Winds will remain between 5-10 knots and then shift to the west by
the end of the TAF period.




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