000
FXUS63 KGLD 170410
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1010 PM MDT Sat Sep 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 229 PM MDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Main forecast issues will be the chance of precipitation followed by
high cool to make the high temperatures through tomorrow. Skies have
cleared out. However, cold air advection has balanced the sunshine
with temperatures remaining nearly steady or very slowly rising.

For tonight, in regards to the precipitation chances. Models begin
to increase moisture and mid level lift late this evening and
especially during the overnight hours. At the same time and in the
same area, the mid level theta-e lapse become negative to allow a
good response to the lift. Also elevated instability develops with
the Nam showing a lot more.

Based on the above parameters coinciding with the model qpfs, am
confining the slight chance to chance pops to the southwest half.
Amounts should be light since there is a decent low level dry layer
to overcome. Believe the models are overdoing the rainfall amounts.
The Nam was too cool today with the remaining output too warm. If
cloud cover does not increase as fast as I think it will, the low
temperatures will need to be lowered from what I have in there.

For Sunday, models have rainfall lingering in the far north and the
southeast fringe through the morning. Next shortwave trough and
chance of precipitation approaches the far west late in the
afternoon and confined a slight chance to there. There is a huge
spread in high temperatures through 850 mb temp, 2 meter, and MOS
forecasts. The Nam looks too cool and the Gfs looks too warm. Cooled
off temperatures a little from the previous forecast which is real
close to what the Canadian has which is in the middle of the
extremes.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 215 PM MDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Sunday night-Monday: Shortwave moves across the CWA in the southwest
flow aloft early Sunday evening. At the surface, cold front from
earlier in the weekend retreats back through the area as a warm
front. This will help to bring a chance of showers and
thunderstorms through the night and into Monday morning, moving
from west to east. Severe weather parameters are fairly marginal
at this point. Model soundings show good shear, but low CAPE.
Could see some inch sized hail or strong wind gusts. Temperatures
will be slightly above normal for the period.

Tuesday-Wednesday: This period should be dry. On Tuesday, low
relative humidity and strong SW winds in Cheyenne and Kit Carson
counties in CO could result in elevated fire weather conditions.
Temps will be back in the 90s on Tuesday. Cold front passes through
the CWA on Tuesday night. Cooler, closer to normal temps for
Wednesday.

Thursday-Saturday: Global models continue to show a strong longwave
trough/closed low approaching the area during the period.
Disagreement of location, timing, and strength creates low
confidence in what exact impacts our CWA can expect. Do expect
temps above average until the feature pushes through and should
see cooler temps closer to average by Saturday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1010 PM MDT Sat Sep 16 2017

For KGLD, vfr conditions expected from taf issuance through about
10z with ifr/vlifr cigs 11z through rest of taf period. Winds
begin from the east near 6kts then slowly veer to the southeast
around 11kts by 18z and continue through rest of period. Am
expecting showers/possible thunderstorms near/over the terminal in
the 07z-10z timeframe as a weather disturbance lifts northeast
across the area. Behind the wave low level moisture increases per
nam/hrrr forecasts. GFS much less which makes for a difficult
forecast. Am going with nam/hrrr for the forecast which brings
increasing low level moisture into the area from the south.
Suppose their could be some drizzle as well.

For KMCK, vfr conditions expected through the period. Could see
ifr cigs in the 10z-18z timeframe. Winds generally from the
northeast slowly veering to the southeast through the period at
speeds under 10kts. Above mentioned weather disturbance looks to
move across the terminal in the 10z-13z timeframe with showers and
possible thunderstorms.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...SME
AVIATION...99