Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 142305

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
405 PM MST Tue Nov 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 130 PM MST Tue Nov 14 2017

Low clouds and fog have been slow to burn off today in eastern six
counties, as a result temperatures have not warmed and dew point
depressions remain low. May see fog redevelop rather early this
evening in those areas and persist until a cold front sweeps
through overnight bringing lower dew points. Breezy northwest
winds will accompany frontal passage through the night,
diminishing around sunrise. Wednesday will be sunny with
temperatures near normal, lower to middle 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 149 PM MST Tue Nov 14 2017

A progressive pattern remains in place from Wednesday night through
early next week across the Central High Plains, with a series of
mid/upper level shortwave troughs/ridges moving primarily across the
Northern Plains. Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will be cutoff
from our CWA, so while we may have brief period of forcing with
fropas or passing disturbances overall chances for any beneficial
precipitation will be minimal to nill. ECMWF is still showing
potential for rain or snow Friday night behind a cold frontal
passage, however other guidance keeps conditions predominantly dry.
If we do see precipitation as ECMWF indicates it would be light in
nature. There is a little less consistency between models by early
next week, however overall trend is towards rising heights and dry

Regarding temperatures: Above normal high temperatures are expected
Thursday through Friday, and there is a possibility of near record
high temperatures Friday if the front slows down and WAA increases
as indicated by GEM/ECMWF (20-21C H85 temps). Temperatures should
then be closer to seasonal normals through the remaining periods,
though models could be under doing warming early next week based on
rising heights advertised in GFS/GEM.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 400 PM MST Tue Nov 14 2017

KGLD, vfr conditions expected through the period. A cold front
will move through in the 04z-10z timeframe producing northwest
winds gusting toward 25kts From 11z-18z winds remain from the
northwest around 10kts becoming variable in the 19z-21z timeframe
then light from the south around 6kts from 22z-24z.

KMCK, vfr conditions expected through the period. Light and
variable winds at taf issuance will become northwest near 10kts by
04z then gust in the 20-25kt range from 06z-09z as a cold front
moves through. Sustained winds around 11kts from the northwest
expected by 10z becoming light and variable from 20z-24z.




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