729
FXUS63 KGLD 071847
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1247 PM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms remain possible during the late afternoon
  and evening hours Monday.

- Remaining mild throughout with highs around the low 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1220 PM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025

This afternoon and evening, scattered to numerous storms are
expected to develop in our westernmost areas around the 3-6pm
MT timeframe and progress eastward throughout the evening hours.
Conditions will be favorable for severe weather, and we are
outlooked in an Enhanced Risk for Severe Weather (level 3 out of
5) for our area, especially for our northwestern counties. The
main threats will change as we go through the event. For this
afternoon and early evening (3-6pm MT) for our westernmost
areas, all modes of severe weather will be possible (large hail,
severe winds, and a tornado cannot be ruled out). It is worth
noting that we have the greatest confidence in the severe wind
threat. The hail threat and tornado risk are quite conditional
and will depend on the wind direction and moisture availability
among other factors.

As these scattered to numerous storms progress eastward toward
our central and eastern areas, they will merge and form into a
line, per the latest model guidance. Once this occurs, generally
around 6-9pm MT and later, the primary weather hazard will be
the straight line wind threat. Generally, as it progresses
eastward through our central and eastern areas tonight, there is
the potential for 60-75mph winds associated with these storms.
Some of the model guidance has been trending toward trying to
weaken the system as it moves eastward while other models keep
it strong through the area. Looking at the model soundings, with
plenty of CAPE, shear, moisture, etc, it seems reasonable that
the system would maintain strength as it progresses through the
area or at the very least, would not weaken as much as some of
the models indicate. But subtle mesoscale differences could
play a major role in the development and overall strength of
this system, so we will be monitoring closely through the
evening hours for changes.

Additionally, we are outlooked in a Marginal Risk of
Heavy Rainfall for our area. This risk will mainly be during the
3-6pm timeframe for our westernmost areas as those scattered to
numerous storms develop, since they will have a slower storm
motion. Once the system forms a line, it will be a lot more
progressive, and so the heavy rainfall risk will be decreased.
Generally, we are expecting 1 inch or less of rainfall from
this system.

Overall, severe weather is expected this afternoon and evening.
The greatest threat will be for damaging winds 60-75 mph, but
large hail and a tornado or two cannot be ruled out, especially
for the northwesternmost areas. Stay weather aware this evening
and have multiple ways to receive warnings, even if you will be
asleep! MSW

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1220 PM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Generally, weak ridging will persist over the area for the long
term forecast Tuesday through the weekend. As a result, there
will be the potential for some isolated to scattered storms
daily in the afternoon and evening hours through the week and
weekend. The best location for these storms would be mainly for
our western half of the area, but everywhere could see storms
daily. Generally, there is still some uncertainty as to the
severity of these storms. At least for Tuesday, we are outlooked
in a Marginal Risk for Severe Weather, so a few of these storms
could be severe with the main risks being winds greater than
60mph and large hail tomorrow. Beyond tomorrow, the storms look
to be primarily sub-severe, but we will continue to monitor for
changes. Temperatures will be a bit warmer as we go toward the
end of the workweek. Highs will be in the mid to upper 90s
across the area, so be sure to stay hydrated and take frequent
breaks if you will be spending time outdoors! MSW

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1107 AM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025

VFR conditions prevail at all area airports. Conditions will
drop to MVFR for a few hours at times this evening as a line of
storms moves through the area. TEMPO groups are in the forecast
to reflect these conditions at both airports. Conditions will
improve to VFR late tonight / early tomorrow once the system
moves through the area. Wind shifts greater than 30 degrees are
expected throughout the forecast at both airports. At GLD, some
wind shear of 60kts will be expected for 1-2 hours as these
storms progress through the area generally around 7-9pm MT. MSW

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Williams
LONG TERM...Williams
AVIATION...Williams