Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 231522

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
822 AM MST Thu Feb 23 2017

Issued at 819 AM MST Thu Feb 23 2017

Widespread stratus has overtaken most of the CWA, and increased
sky grids substantially. Cold air appears to be winning the battle
this morning, as surface low pressure begins to organize in SE
Colorado. Temperatures this afternoon and fire weather risk will
need to be reassessed later today with later updates.

UPDATE Issued at 526 AM MST Thu Feb 23 2017

Update to forecast issued to add in patchy freezing fog in Yuma
county Colorado based on latest obs west of the area. Rest of
forecast on track at this time.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 216 AM MST Thu Feb 23 2017

Across the Tri State region this morning...temps are ranging from
the mid 30s to the mid 40s as the area currently lies north of a
frontal boundary. The placement of this front...combined with high
pressure to our north and a surface low over southern Colorado is
giving the area a mixed sky cover. With clear skies currently over
western zones and mostly cloudy to cloudy conditions elsewhere as
stratus works south from Nebraska ahead of the surface ridge...and
mid/high cloud works across much of Kansas. There is also a general
ENE surface flow over the area ahead of the ridge.

For today on thru Friday will be the surface low over
southern Colorado along with the frontal boundary draped over the
area...that will place the key roles for the wx over the region. The
low over Colorado is expected to shift eastward along the boundary
during the day today shifting east of the CWA late tonight into
Friday. As the low moves east the front will meander northward into
the CWA splitting the area along the I-70 corridor.

Temps are going to be warm enough initially for much of the CWA to
allow for rainshowers to develop. By the afternoon hrs with the low
over western Kansas...instability N and E of the low will trigger
some isolated t-storms. Best chances will occur over eastern zones
where SPC currently has portions of the east in Marginal Risk for
severe wx.

As the day progresses this afternoon...winds will begin to shift on
the backside of the low...allowing for colder air to infiltrate the the area a change over to a rw/sw mix and eventually sw
as the evening hrs come about. Latest model guidance has increased
the amount of qpf for much of the northern CWA during this timeframe
and with decent CAA into the area...have increased snow totals.
Primary focus for accum will remain north of I-70 especially near
the KS/NE border where 1-2" is possible...down to 0.5" or less the
further south you go. Snow will taper off from west to east during
the day Friday before ending. By Friday night on thru Saturday night
high pressure returns over the area for dry conditions.

Other concerns for the Thursday to Friday night period will be Fire
Wx and strong winds.

First off...south of the frontal boundary thru the day...region will
remain mostly dry with lower RH readings versus northern locales.
Thinking the placement of the front will allow for the southern tier
to remain under Red Flag conditions so have continued warning...but
have dropped the Fire Weather Watch for the next tier of counties
along I-70. These areas may briefly hit criteria but not for the 3-
hr expected period for a warning.

Strong wind conditions will also ensue with the passage of this
system and across the CWA Friday on the backside of the exiting low.
Looking for gusts into the 30-40mph range with some locally higher
amounts near 45 mph possible.

Overall for temps...the CWA for today will see a north to south
orientation for highs and will be dependent on where the front sets
up...but upper 30s to near 40F up north to transition to low 60s
south is the best bet at this time. Cold air in place for Friday
with highs only in the upper 20s north to the mid 30s south...but by
Saturday...much of the CWA will trend upward into mostly the lower
to mid 40s. Overnight lows will mainly range in the teens to low 20s
at best. With these cold temps at night...and the expected
winds...wind chill readings could drop into the single numbers above
zero for Thursday/Friday nights.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 227 AM MST Thu Feb 23 2017

The pattern for the extended period looks to be mostly dry with
closer to normal temperatures.

High pressure will be the main influencing factor expect for
Tuesday. On Tuesday there is a slight chance of showers due to a
possible frontal system impacting the High plains. The models
indicating a frontal system developing over the Texas panhandle and
moving northeast over the High Plains. This system should stay
mostly to the east of western Kansas however... if the track is more
westward from what the current models are showing... then we will
see a greater chance of precipitation.

After Tuesday high pressure will build back over the region for the
rest of the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 413 AM MST Thu Feb 23 2017

For KGLD...thru 17z MVFR/IFR mix with 5-6sm in fog and ceilings
ranging from BKN008-025. 17z-00z VFR conditions with VCSH. From
00z Friday onward...MVFR/IFR mix with 1-2sm in light snow and
ceilings around OVC015. Winds affected by front and passing
surface low. Thru 00z Friday...they will meander from ENE to S and
back to ESE. Speeds 15-25kts with gusts near 30kts. After 00z
Friday...winds shift to the north 20-30kts.

For KMCK...Ceilings thru the period will be a MVFR/IFR mix ranging
from ovc004-015. As forecast period progresses...cold air will
change precip from rain to snow. 4-6sm in rasn thru 00z
Friday...then 1-2sm in all snow thereafter. Winds ENE 15-30kts
thru 00z Friday then NNE 15-30kts.




UPDATE...Turner/WFO Dodge City
AVIATION...JN is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.