Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 191736
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1136 AM MDT Fri May 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 844 AM MDT Fri May 19 2017

Just completed an update. Rain shield is expanding. Expect this to
continue through the day due to left front quadrant of upper jet
and a couple different vorticity lobes rotating around it. So
increased pops for the day. Based on radar returns and latest
model output showing some elevated instability, added isolated
thunderstorms into the forecast.

Based on the above and the latest qpf output, raised the qpf
during this time period and made the rainfall moderate across the
entire area. Also increased sky cover and lowered the high
temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 312 AM MDT Fri May 19 2017

The primary concern in the short term period is the possibility of
near freezing temperatures early Saturday morning that have
prompted the issuance of a frost advisory over far eastern
Colorado.

The large upper level low pressure system over the central
Rockies begins to move into the Central High Plains today and
lifts into the Central Plains on Saturday. Light rain with
embedded thunderstorms and localized moderate to heavy rain
showers are expected to continue across the forecast area through
Saturday. Precipitation will end from west to east across the
forecast area on Saturday as the upper low and associated surface
low move further away from the forecast area. As precipitation
ends and sky cover begins to less Friday night into Saturday
morning, overnight low temperatures across far eastern Colorado
are expected to dip into the middle 30s. The potential for a frost
therefore exists over far eastern Colorado after midnight Friday
night through about 7am Saturday morning.

Dryer and warmer conditions are expected by late Saturday and
Saturday night as high pressure moves into the region Saturday
night. Daytime highs will be back into the lower 70s on Sunday
with a possibility of scattered thunderstorms developing late
Sunday and Sunday night as a short wave trough approaches in the
westerly flow aloft.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 207 AM MDT Fri May 19 2017

At the start of the extended period a progressive pattern with NW
flow remains over the High Plains with a quasi-stationary front and
passing shortwave troughs. Monday night, a strong negatively tilted
upper level trough, along with a cold front associated with it, will
pass through the region. This pattern is expected to produce showers
and thunderstorms through early Tuesday morning and maybe some
lingering showers into Tuesday afternoon.

Tuesday night through Friday, models are showing a dry pattern for
the High Plains. However, the location of the ridge does keep a
slightly northerly upper level component. This could support weak
shortwave trough passages. Overall, mostly dry conditions is
forecast during these time.

Temperatures on Monday will tend to be near normal, near 70s for the
highs with 40s for lows. However, on Tuesday we will be in a post
frontal air mass, after the cold front passage from Monday night,
and highs will reach only in the 60s. The rest of the week we will
slowing warm and reach highs near 80 by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Fri May 19 2017

Area will continue to be plagued by periods of rain, areas of fog,
and low ceilings. For Kgld...mvfr conditions are expected through
early this evening. From early evening until very late in the
period, ifr/lifr conditions will prevail. Right before the end of
the period, mvfr conditions will return.

For Kmck...mvfr conditions are expected until 20z. From 20z until
late in the period, ifr/lifr conditions will occur. Very late in
the period, mvfr conditions will return.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM MDT Saturday for
     COZ090>092.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...BULLER



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