061
FXUS63 KGLD 072328
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
528 PM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms through this evening. Main threats of
  wind gusts up to 75 mph and hail as large as baseballs.

- Severe thunderstorm watch for northeast CO, southwest NE, and
  northwest KS till 9 pm MT / 10 pm CT.

- Remaining mild throughout with highs around the low 90s.

&&

.UPDATE...

Issued at 450 PM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Strong to severe thunderstorms continuing along a line that will
sweep through the region through the evening hours. Main threats
of wind gusts up to 75 mph along with hail as large as baseballs
Baseballs which have already been reported earlier with the on-
going storms in Otis, CO along with gusts exceeding 60 mph down-
stream across Yuma County, CO. A severe thunderstorm watch is in
effect for our area until 9 pm MT / 10 pm CT.

With the cap eroded, instability of 2-3k J/kg is straddling the
CO / KS border with effective bulk shear upwards of 40 kts. The
overall shear environment looks better than yesterday and likely
promoting updraft longevity and maintenance. That in mind along
with right-moving propagation vectors, there`s concern of another
repeat of the last couple of nights in where instability wanes
into the overnight period such as the negative buoyancy held aloft
weakens and begins to fall driving storms SSE behind which wind
gusts of around 50 to 60 mph upwards of 75 mph are possible. The
NW shear vector notation, even with present storms we`re seeing
some decent rear-inflows that have led to brief tornadic coupling
on the leading edge as lofted cores are coming off the updraft
and falling accordingly within downdraft regions. dCape values
upwards of 1700 J/kg in line with modeled inverted-V sounding
profiles of depths of nearly 7 kft agl.

It is just a question as to the longevity of the line of storms to
the E. Notably the cumulus field was largely absent during the day
in our forecast area while the better dynamics exist well N across
the Plains. A weak impulse rounding the N periphery of the monsoonal
high across the 4-corners region, believe the storms that have
developed around now driving their own environment. So the question
is how long they will maintain E. It would appear the threat will
continue into the evening hours if not surface based but becoming
elevated.

Plenty of moisture to work with that nets the threat of heavy rain
as we remain under a marginal risk of excessive rainfall. Can not
rule out localized flooding. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches will
be possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Issued at 1220 PM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025

This afternoon and evening, scattered to numerous storms are
expected to develop in our westernmost areas around the 3-6pm
MT timeframe and progress eastward throughout the evening hours.
Conditions will be favorable for severe weather, and we are
outlooked in an Enhanced Risk for Severe Weather (level 3 out of
5) for our area, especially for our northwestern counties. The
main threats will change as we go through the event. For this
afternoon and early evening (3-6pm MT) for our westernmost
areas, all modes of severe weather will be possible (large hail,
severe winds, and a tornado cannot be ruled out). It is worth
noting that we have the greatest confidence in the severe wind
threat. The hail threat and tornado risk are quite conditional
and will depend on the wind direction and moisture availability
among other factors.

As these scattered to numerous storms progress eastward toward
our central and eastern areas, they will merge and form into a
line, per the latest model guidance. Once this occurs, generally
around 6-9pm MT and later, the primary weather hazard will be
the straight line wind threat. Generally, as it progresses
eastward through our central and eastern areas tonight, there is
the potential for 60-75mph winds associated with these storms.
Some of the model guidance has been trending toward trying to
weaken the system as it moves eastward while other models keep
it strong through the area. Looking at the model soundings, with
plenty of CAPE, shear, moisture, etc, it seems reasonable that
the system would maintain strength as it progresses through the
area or at the very least, would not weaken as much as some of
the models indicate. But subtle mesoscale differences could play
a major role in the development and overall strength of this
system, so we will be monitoring closely through the evening
hours for changes.

Additionally, we are outlooked in a Marginal Risk of
Heavy Rainfall for our area. This risk will mainly be during the
3-6pm timeframe for our westernmost areas as those scattered to
numerous storms develop, since they will have a slower storm
motion. Once the system forms a line, it will be a lot more
progressive, and so the heavy rainfall risk will be decreased.
Generally, we are expecting 1 inch or less of rainfall from
this system.

Overall, severe weather is expected this afternoon and evening.
The greatest threat will be for damaging winds 60-75 mph, but
large hail and a tornado or two cannot be ruled out, especially
for the northwesternmost areas. Stay weather aware this evening
and have multiple ways to receive warnings, even if you will be
asleep! MSW

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Issued at 1220 PM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Generally, weak ridging will persist over the area for the long
term forecast Tuesday through the weekend. As a result, there
will be the potential for some isolated to scattered storms
daily in the afternoon and evening hours through the week and
weekend. The best location for these storms would be mainly for
our western half of the area, but everywhere could see storms
daily. Generally, there is still some uncertainty as to the
severity of these storms. At least for Tuesday, we are outlooked
in a Marginal Risk for Severe Weather, so a few of these storms
could be severe with the main risks being winds greater than
60mph and large hail tomorrow. Beyond tomorrow, the storms look
to be primarily sub-severe, but we will continue to monitor for
changes. Temperatures will be a bit warmer as we go toward the
end of the workweek. Highs will be in the mid to upper 90s
across the area, so be sure to stay hydrated and take frequent
breaks if you will be spending time outdoors! MSW

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...

Issued at 450 PM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Similar to TSRA outcomes yesterday. SCT-BKN VFR prior to any
potential TSRA with prevailing S winds 10-15 kts.

With any TSRA, MVFR-IFR VSBYs with TSRA/+TSRA along with likely
winds of 35025G35KT. Roughly 0z-4z timeframe for TSRA which is
presently SCT-BKN at this time, 0z-2z for KGLD while 2z-4z
roughly for KMCK.

While a line of TSRA is developing at this hour, as it sweeps
through the region it will likely be SCT-BKN. Uncertainty as to
direct impacts to terminals, will go with TEMPOs for potential
MVFR-IFR impacts.

After 4z, expecting prevailing light N flow, VRB at times, with
VFR prevailing.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Sipprell
SHORT TERM...Williams
LONG TERM...Williams
AVIATION...Sipprell