000
FXUS63 KGLD 241746
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1046 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1038 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

PLAN TO UPDATE GRIDS AND ZONES SHORTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASED
CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN LOWER MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY
WILL BE LACKING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
FALLS WILL NOT LIKELY REACH THE GROUND. WILL CARRY A MENTION OF A
FEW AFTERNOON SPRINKLES BUT OTHERWISE KEEP POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT.
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 40-45KTS WILL DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SURFACE
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT
DUE TO VERY LOW MIXING HEIGHTS NOT EXPECTING THOSE TO MAKE IT TO
THE SURFACE WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED
VIRGA. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
KEEPING LOW TEMPERATURES MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH RISING HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTLE RIDGING IN THE
CONTINUING NORTHWEST FLOW. BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING BUT BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. TEMPERATURES BOTH
TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S...SLIGHTLY
COOLER IN THE EAST ON SUNDAY. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN STRONGLY ON
MONDAY WITH ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
APPROACH 70 DEGREES...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL BUT STILL BELOW RECORDS
WHICH ARE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WARM WEATHER DOMINATES TO BEGIN
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...IT IS BECOMING EVIDENT THAT THIS WARMTH WILL
NOT LAST FOREVER...COMING TO AN END BY NEXT WEEKEND AS A RESULT OF A
LARGE PATTERN CHANGE.

BEGINNING WITH TUESDAY...FORECAST GUIDANCE TRENDED WARMER ONCE AGAIN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUNS. GEFS ENSEMBLES INDICATE A STRONG RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...NEAR TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 2
DEGREES CELSIUS WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND ECE/MEX ARE AROUND 5
DEGREES FAHRENHEIT WARMER. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...FEEL MAX TEMPS
NEEDED TO BE WARMED. TUESDAY`S FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S TO LOW 70S. THERE MAY BE SOME CIRRUS SPREADING IN FROM THE
SOUTH. HOWEVER...MODEL RH FIELDS ALOFT INDICATE A VERY NARROW BAND
OF NEAR TO JUST BELOW SATURATION AND FEEL THAT THIS SHOULD NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES.

A COOLING TREND BEGINS WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGES.
INSTEAD OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DOMINATING THE HIGH PLAINS...THE
RIDGE BEGINS BREAKING DOWN WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY...A STRONG CLIPPER PUSHES SOUTHEAST OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS...FURTHER WEAKENING THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. A COLD FRONT IS
FORCED THROUGH BY THE CLIPPER...BRINGING COOLER WEATHER...ALBEIT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS PERSIST...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A MUCH STRONGER
DISTURBANCE FORCES ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...
POSSIBLY BRINGING A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS INTO THE TRI-STATE REGION.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...FORECAST GUIDANCE REMAINS IN A
STRUGGLE BETWEEN THE DEPTH OF THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH AND A
DEVELOPING CUT OFF LOW ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. IT APPEARS MORE
LIKELY THAT THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WINS FOR OUR WEATHER. THIS WOULD
ALLOW FAST MOVING SYSTEMS TO PASS THROUGH...POSSIBLY WITH A CHANCE
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS PRODUCED BY
THE CR INITIALIZATION PROCEDURE. OVERALL...A SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EVENT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY UNLESS THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. CUT-OFF LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST INSTEAD OF EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1038 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK AS HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TONIGHT. SOME MVFR POSSIBLE AT KGLD ACCORDING TO THE KGLD POINT
SOUNDING. HOWEVER, AM NOT CONVINCED THAT CLOUD BASES WILL GET
THAT LOW BASED ON LACK OF H8-7 RH. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY FROM
THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FS
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...FS