Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 110450
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1050 PM MDT THU APR 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT THU APR 10 2014

VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE TRI STATE
AREA...WITH A FEW STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING NORTHWEST OF YUMA
COUNTY. INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWED THE DEVELOPING CLOUDS WERE MOSTLY
HIGH BASED WITH CLOUD TOPS AROUND MINUS 40 CELSIUS. THIS AREA OF
CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE AREA TO WATCH AS MODELS DEVELOP SOME
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION LATER THIS EVENING.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
MORNING...WITH QUASI ZONAL FLOW OVER THE TRI STATE AREA.  THIS ZONAL
TYPE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. AT THE MID
LEVELS...A SMALL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING ALONG
THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE AS THE LEE CYCLOGENESIS PROCESS BEGINS.
OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR TROUGH SYSTEMS OR STRONG JET WILL AFFECT THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. AN 850 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BUT A
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FRIDAY. OBSERVED SOUNDINGS
FROM KDNR...KDDC AND KLBF INDICATED RELATIVELY DRY LOWER AND MID
LEVEL PROFILES WITH ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE CAPE AND
POSITIVE LIFTED INDEX VALUES. A RIDGE ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
TOMORROW...WHICH WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...SOUTH
WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ZONE OF WESTERLY WINDS THAT WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE
FRONT RANGE AND MOVE INTO THE SOUTH WIND FIELD...WHICH COULD SPARK
CONVECTION AROUND SUNDOWN INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER...WITH DRY PROFILES...850 MB HIGH PRESSURE AND INVERSION
ALOFT...ONLY MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...STORMS
SHOULD BE WEAK AND NOT LAST LONG PAST EASTERN COLORADO. INCREASED
CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE ALONG THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE TRI STATE AREA
TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
WARM TEMPERATURES FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT THU APR 10 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...CLOUDINESS SLOWLY INCREASES THROUGH THE
PERIOD AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TO OUR NORTHWEST AND LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST. STRATUS AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES AROUND 12Z SATURDAY
BEFORE MOVING EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA BY MID DAY. SFC LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY DAYS END WITH SFC HIGH BEHIND
APPROACHING FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. SHOULD SEE AN ERRATIC WIND
FIELD WITH LIGHT SPEEDS. MAY SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AND
FOCUSES ALONG THE VARIOUS WIND SHIFT LINES MENTIONED ABOVE. LACK OF
MOISTURE BELOW 700MB SUGGESTS SOMEWHAT HIGH BASED STORMS. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S WITH LOW 50S ACROSS THE FAR EAST. HIGHS

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD SKIRT WELL TO OUR SOUTH WHILE SHORTWAVE TO
OUR NORTHWEST SLOWLY ADVANCES OUR WAY. AT THE SFC COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SLOWLY INCREASING NORTH WINDS
DURING THE NIGHT...BECOMING BREEZY TO WINDY BY DAYBREAK. FOR SUNDAY
WINDS SLOWLY STRENGTHEN BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF ADVISORY
CRITERIA CONDITIONS. ALSO COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR IN
BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
DAY. CURRENTLY EXPECTING LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S (WEST TO
EAST). HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY LOW TO MID 40S.

FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS GOING
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MOST SUNDAY. HIGH CHANCE/LOW
LIKELY POPS GOING

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...SFC HIGH MOVES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
LIGHTER NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS MONDAY. UPPER TROUGH SHOULD CLEAR THE
AREA TOWARD MORNING MONDAY WITH BEST CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION THROUGH MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. PLENTY OF SUN FOR
MONDAY. LOWS MID 20S WEST TO LOW 30S EAST. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
50S.

TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES EAST OVER THE AREA WITH
EAST/SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER
LOWS IN THE LOW 30S HIGHS TUESDAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE 60S.

WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST AS LOW PRESSURE OR OPEN WAVE
TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE AREA. MODELS REMAIN IN DISAGREEMENT
AS TO THE SPEED AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT BREEZY FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 30S EAST TO LOW 40S
EAST/SOUTHEAST HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE 60S. NO
PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

THURSDAY...DISCREPANCIES REMAIN IN THE HANDLING OF WEDNESDAYS SYSTEM
WITH SO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE A
SLOW INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE
AREA...OTHERWISE LOOKS TO BE RATHER CLOUDY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM MDT THU APR 10 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
TO STAY NORTH AND EAST OF KMCK AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD AND
WILL LEAVE OUT. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WITH A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WIND EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. LOW LEVEL JET LOOKS TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY NEAR
KGLD...SO PUT SOME GUSTS IN DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS OF THE
PERIOD AT KGLD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...BULLER






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