000
FXUS63 KGLD 022000
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
100 PM MST SUN MAR 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MST SUN MAR 2 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE ONGOING ADVISORIES AND HOW TO HANDLE THE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY
AND RETROGRESSIVE PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO CANADA. UNDERNEATH
THIS THE FLOW IS PROGRESSIVE/NEARLY ZONAL. FEATURE OF INTEREST IS
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND WHAT AFFECT
IT WILL HAVE ON THE FORECAST. EXTREMELY COLD AIR MASS ENTRENCHED
FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOWING THAT A LARGE PART OF THE AIR MASS
BELOW 700 MB IS IN OR IS THE DENDRITIC ZONE.

AT JET LEVEL...THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS WITH
THE JET SEGMENT FROM THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY INTO OUR
AREA. AT MID LEVELS...THE MODELS DID FINE WITH THE ECMWF AND UKMET
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS AND THE CANADIAN. THE ECMWF WAS
DOING SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE NAM ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE
FIELD. MODELS WERE TENDING TO NOT BE COLD ENOUGH WITH THIS AIR
MASS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE DOING THE BEST.

TODAY/TONIGHT...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET STARTS OVER THE AREA
AT 12Z. BY 18Z IT IS STILL AFFECTING THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR AREA.
THIS IS ABOUT SIX HOURS SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY. BY LATE IN THE DAY IT
IS EAST OF THE AREA. AT THIS SAME THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE THROUGH.
THE STRONGEST PV ANOMALY AND GREATEST MID AND UPPER LIFT WILL
RESIDE NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA OR TO THE
SOUTH OF IT. SO THE READJUSTED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THE EVENING
SHIFT ISSUED LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE.

MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO IT PLUS ADDED VERY LIGHT SNOW/NONMEASURABLE
TO THE NORTH OF THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW. LIFT AND MOISTURE MOVE OUT OF
THE AREA NEAR OR JUST BEFORE 00Z SO THAT TIMING LOOKS GOOD. FLURRIES
THROUGH MID EVENING LOOK FINE AS WELL. CONSIDERING LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS AND MOISTURE LEVELS...SOUNDINGS WOULD
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG.

PER LATEST NWP AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND SUPPORTED BY THE SHORTER
TERM/MESOSCALE GUIDANCE...LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY.
CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION ALONG WITH CLOUDS AND ONGOING
PRECIPITATION WILL NOT ALLOW THE TEMPERATURES TO RISE VERY MUCH IF
AT ALL. ALSO AS A RESULT OF CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND WINDS...CURRENT
WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS LOOKING FINE AT THIS TIME AS WELL.

WINDS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OUT EAST. IF MORE
CLEARING OCCURS THAN EXPECTED...OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO
BE LOWERED MORE. WITH WHAT LITTLE WIND THERE MAY WIND CHILL
READINGS WILL BE LOW ONCE AGAIN AND A HIGHLIGHT MAY AGAIN BE NEEDED.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...RIDGING BUILDS IN WITH STRONG WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA AND MOUNTAINS TO THE WEST. MODELS
INDICATING VARIABLE AMOUNT OF CIRRUS WITH MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER
IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. MODELS DISAGREE IN HOW FAR EAST TO TAKE
THE WARMER AIR. AS YESTERDAY DO LIKE THE ECMWF IN HOW IT HANDLES THE
SURFACE PATTERN SO LIKE HOW IT DOES THE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...IT
ALONG WITH THE CANADIAN WOULD SUPPORT HAVING THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES FURTHER WEST THAN I HAVE THEM. THIS WILL BE VERY TOUGH
TO NAIL DOWN EVEN WHEN IT GETS TO TOMORROW. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE INTERESTING WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
INCREASING THROUGH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY BE REALIZED IN
THE EVENING IN SOME LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE WAY DIFFERENT ON THE JET
POSITION. AT ONE POINT IN THE DAY A LEFT FRONT QUADRANT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. AT THIS TIME THAT LOOKS TO PRODUCE THICKER CLOUDS. TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON WHEN TO BRING IN THE FRONT DESPITE
NOT BEING THAT DIFFERENT ALOFT. THE NAM IS FASTEST AND BRINGS THROUGH
EARLY IN THE MORNING. OTHERS WAIT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON WITH DOWNSLOPE
WINDS OCCURRING BEFORE THAT. WITH THE FAST FLOW ALOFT THERE SHOULD BE
A STRONG LEE TROUGH DEVELOP WHICH WOULD SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT. SO AT THIS TIME WILL GO THAT DIRECTION. SO ENDED UP KEEPING
THE WARM TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY AND RAISED THEM A LITTLE MORE.

DURING THE NIGHT...LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF AN INCOMING JET WILL
BEGIN AFFECTING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. ONE COULD MAKE A
CASE FOR A BROAD AREA OF JET LIFT DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A
COUPLED JET STRUCTURE BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE JET SEGMENT THAT
HAD MOVED THROUGH DURING THE DAY...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALSO WHAT
LOOKS TO BE A RATHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA
IN THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT AS WELL. SO THE PROSPECTS OF RECEIVING
SOME PRECIPITATION LOOK FAVORABLE.

HOWEVER...THE PROBLEM IS WHAT WILL THE PHASE BE. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW A NUMBER OF DIFFERENT SCENARIOS. THIS LOOKS TO BE TIED TO WHEN
THEY BRING THE FRONT IN. THE NAM IS COLDEST AND MOST SATURATED AT
THE BOTTOM. THE GFS IS WARMER AND TAKES LONGER TO SATURATE IN THE
LOWER LEVELS. THE ECMWF IS NOT AS SATURATED AS BOTH OF THOSE BUT IT
IS COLDER IN THE BOTTOM BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE NAM. SO MULTIPLE
PHASES COULD BE POSSIBLE AND WERE INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE WILL BE IN THE NORTH. ALSO PRIOR TO
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AND WHERE THERE IS NOT A LOT
PRECIPITATION...AREAS OF FOG LOOK TO DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM...(TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM MST SUN MAR 2 2014

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS PERIOD WITH A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CROSSING THE CONUS IN ZONAL FLOW OF THE SOUTHERN
STREAM. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
WITH PHASE STILL UNCERTAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FIRST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS SHOW ICE ENTERING THE COLUMN IN THE
DENDRITIC LAYER BUT A DEEP DRY LAYER BELOW WHICH GRADUALLY
SATURATES. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS TUESDAY EVENING SUGGEST
PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS RAIN...THEN CHANGING TO
RAIN...SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW
FREEZING AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FALL. PRECIPITATION WILL BE
LIGHT BUT COULD SEE SOME KIND OF WINTRY MIX OVERNIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...ENDING WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
SOUNDINGS SHOW ICE ENTERING THE COLUMN BUT ONCE AGAIN A DEEP AND
DRY LAYER BELOW DOMINATED BY WESTERLY WINDS. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON
TIMING OF COLDER AIR WHICH COULD DETERMINE IF PRECIPITATION IS
RAIN OR SNOW. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AGAIN LOOK VERY LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1042 AM MST SUN MAR 2 2014

FOR KGLD...MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
EVENING...SLOWLY RISING...AND EVENTUALLY RETURNING TO VFR
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE NORTHEASTERLY AND THEN MAY GO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM FOR A PERIOD TONIGHT BEFORE TURNING
SOUTHERLY AND STRENGTHENING TOMORROW MORNING.

FOR KMCK...A VFR CEILING IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD...GRADUALLY RISING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING POTENTIAL TOWARD MORNING AND THIS WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS
FOR FOG POTENTIAL. WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINOR. A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WIND
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY BY MORNING AND INCREASE TO 12 KTS
OR MORE BY MID/LATE MORNING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR KSZ015-016-027>029-041-042.

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ092.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BRB