Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 120547

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1047 PM MST Mon Dec 11 2017

Issued at 449 PM MST Mon Dec 11 2017

The Red Flag Warning will be allowed to expire as there is no
longer an opportunity to meet criteria with temperatures
decreasing, RH values increasing, and winds diminishing through
the remainder of the evening.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 230 PM MST Mon Dec 11 2017

Through Tonight: Vigorous mixing (SFC-750 mb) associated with
unseasonably warm temperatures (mid 50s to lower 60s) and an
enhanced MSLP/height gradient associated with shortwave energy
digging SSE through central NE/eastern KS (along the western
periphery of a separate shortwave progressing ESE through IL/IN)
is resulting in sustained NW winds of 25-35 mph with frequent
gusts to 45-55 mph (strongest in western KS/southwest NE) this
afternoon, along with critical fire weather conditions. Expect
winds to decrease to 15-25 knots AOA sunset with loss of
insolation /onset of the nocturnal inversion/ and gradual
weakening of the MSLP gradient, further weakening to 10-15 knots
or less overnight as surface high pressure builds into the Tri-
State region from the NW. Expect lows ranging from the upper teens
to low/mid 20s, coldest in valleys (w/respect to surrounding terrain)
/low- lying areas/.

Tuesday: Surface high pressure building into the region overnight
will shift into TX during the day Tue as the shortwave
progressing through KS/OK this evening digs rapidly SE into the
GOMEX and subsidence in the wake thereof shifts from the southern
plains to the gulf coast region. Expect light/variable winds
becoming WSW/SW at 10-15 knots by late afternoon with highs
ranging from the upper 50s to lower 60s, warmest eastern CO.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 156 PM MST Mon Dec 11 2017

Wednesday through Monday the dry pattern and above normal
temperatures, with a few windy days, will continue.  A couple upper
level short wave troughs move over the forecast area in the
northwest flow, but the environment is too dry to support much more
than cloud cover. The strongest upper level short wave trough for
this period moves through Saturday night/Sunday. However by the time
the dew point depressions are low enough to start supporting
precipitation, the lift will be to the east.

The main focus for this period is the winds.  Wednesday and Thursday
will be the windiest days; Thursday having the strongest winds with
speeds similar to today.  Along with the winds, there will be a
potential for hazardous fire weather conditions Wednesday as
relative humidity values fall to around 20 percent.  Thursday the
relative humidity values will be higher, around 30 percent, but the
strong winds will still create a volatile environment with regard
to fire weather.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1030 PM MST Mon Dec 11 2017

VFR conditions will continue across the central high plains region
through the TAF period with light winds varying between northwest
and southwest.




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