000
FXUS63 KGLD 301737
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1037 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 857 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO LOWER MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY...AMENDED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BASED ON LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE AND MADE
SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE QPF/SNOW ACCUMULATION FORECAST.

OVERALL...BOUNTIFUL DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS NEEDS TO BE
OVERCOME BEFORE PRECIPITATION REACHES THE GROUND. DELAYED
BEGINNING PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. ALSO...WITH
THICK CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...DO NOT FEEL WE WILL
WARM AS MUCH TODAY. LEANED ON THE LOWER SIDE OF MAX TEMP GUIDANCE
WHICH RESULTED IN A NEAR NAM/ECMWF BLEND. LEANED ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF MIN TEMP GUIDANCE TONIGHT AS WE SHOULD BE EXTREMELY SLOW
TO COOL UNDER DENSE CLOUDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. IN THE
END...THESE WARMER TEMPS FORECAST LOWERED ANTICIPATED SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
WEST COAST WITH TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW
SMALLER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WERE PRESENT IN THE FLOW. IN ADDITION A
LARGE EXPANSE OF CLOUDS IS SEEN OVER MOST OF THE GREAT BASIN.

MAIN FOCUS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL THE CHANCE FOR SNOW/RAIN.
NOT VERY IMPRESSED WITH THE POSSIBILITY BUT THERE IS ENOUGH LIFT TO
WARRANT SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW...WITH THE TWO BEST OPPORTUNITIES
BEING THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
UNDER AN INCH...WITH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE EAST OF A
GOVE/HOXIE/NORTON LINE.  THIS WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST
THE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

TODAY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA FROM THE WEST...DEEPENING THROUGH THE
DAY.  THE STRONGEST LIFT APPEARS TO BE CONFINED BETWEEN THE 700-
500MB LAYER...WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ALSO PRESENT OVER THE EAST
HALF OF THE AREA AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.  AM NOT VERY IMPRESSED
WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LIFT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE THETA-E LAPSE
RATES OF 2-4K/KM IN THE LAYER.  HOWEVER THE COLUMN IS SATURATED TO
WITHIN 2.5K FT. OF THE GROUND AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE
AROUND 3 MB...SO WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST PRECIP. CHANCES TIED TO THIS
TROUGH PASSAGE.

THIS EVENING THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND DEEPEN.
THE LIFT QUICKLY STRENGTHENS EAST/SOUTH OF THE AREA AND 700-500MB
FRONTOGENESIS ALSO INTENSIFIES...KEEPING THE HIGHER PRECIP. CHANCES
EAST OF THE AREA.  OVERNIGHT VERY WEAK LIFT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
AHEAD OF A 500MB TROUGH AXIS.  SINCE THIS LIFT IS ALSO PRESENT IN
THE DENDRITIC ZONE AND THE ENVIRONMENT IS SATURATED TO THE
SURFACE...HAVE SOME VERY LOW CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL GOING INTO
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

SATURDAY THE WEAK LIFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA...GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES.
THEREFORE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE PRECIP. CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY.

SATURDAY EVENING THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH...WITH 700-
500MB LIFT REACHING A PEAK ALONG IT OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA
AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS LESS THAN 5 MB.  AFTER MIDNIGHT
THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND IT.  WILL HAVE THE PRECIP. CHANCES ALSO PEAK DURING THE
EVENING AS THE TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA THEN DECLINE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON MONDAY OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION
FLATTENS ON TUESDAY AS THE ENTIRE PATTERN FLATTENS ACROSS THE UNITED
STATES. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK THE UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO
AMPLIFY AS THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE TRANSLATES EAST OVER THE ROCKIES
BY FRIDAY.

A LEE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER EASTERN COLORADO ON MONDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DURING
THE DAY.  COOLER MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS
STATES.  BY LATE IN THE WEEK...THE COOLER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST AND WESTERLY NEAR SURFACE FLOW BRINGS WARMER TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION UNDER THE RIDGE ALOFT.&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY...WITH LESS
CONFIDENCE IN CONDITIONS STARTING LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IN SW US WILL ALLOW INFLUX OF MOISTURE
INTO THE PLAINS...HOWEVER THERE IS CURRENTLY SPREAD IN HOW THIS
FAR NORTH THIS WILL IMPACT AND THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIP/STRATUS/FOG. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IS IN 1500-2500 FT AGL CIGS
OVER KGLD IN THE EVENING SO I INTRODUCES A MVFR CIG GROUP. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBILITY OF MUCH LOWER CONDITIONS IF
BETTER MOISTURE IS ABLE TO MAKE IT THIS FAR NORTH. VFR IS MOST
LIKELY GOING TO PREVAIL ALL TAF PERIOD AT KMCK. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT BOTH TERMINALS...WITH GUSTS DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY 20-25KT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1037 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY END TONIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
PASSES THROUGH. ANTICIPATE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...
SPREADING TOWARDS TAF SITES THIS EVENING. SOUTH WINDS WEAKEN AS
SURFACE LOW ENCROACHES...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 09Z.
WITH LOW LEVEL SATURATION ABOUT THE TIME OF THE LOW PASSAGE...FEEL
THAT THERE COULD BE SOME FOG/DRIZZLE AT TAF SITES TOMORROW MORNING
IN ADDITION TO LOW CEILINGS. FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES POTENTIAL
FOR WORSE CONDITIONS BUT THIS NEEDS TO BE RESOLVED IN LATER RUNS
AS THERE IS A DECENT SPREAD IN FORECAST SOLUTIONS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...LOCKHART/JTL
AVIATION...RRH