000
FXUS63 KGLD 171051
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
451 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 451 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...INTENSITY AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THEY PRODUCE. SECONDARY CONCERN WILL BE THE
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED AND
BLOCKY PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN PACIFIC. THEN IT
TRANSITIONS INTO A LESS AMPLIFIED MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER THE
COUNTRY.

AT JET LEVEL THE MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY. THE NAM AND GFS
LOOKED TO BE DOING THE BEST. AT MID LEVELS THE MODELS WERE CLOSE.
THE GFS AND CANADIAN TENDED TO DO THE BEST WITH THE NAM/ECMWF
SLIGHTLY WORSE. THE NAM WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE SREF
AND ECMWF ON THE LOW LEVEL SURFACE/WINDS. THE NAM...GFS...AND UKMET
WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM THE AREA AND
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS CLEARED. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO YESTERDAYS
RAINFALL EVENT HAS ALLOWED SOME FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP. MODELS
ARE PLAYING CATCH UP WITH THIS DUE TO THEM NOT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT
YESTERDAYS RAINFALL. AT THIS BROADBRUSHED PATCHY FOG. BUT WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR THE TRENDS AND POSSIBLY INCREASE COVERAGE AND SKY COVER
BEFORE THE END OF THE SHIFT. IF FOG/STRATUS LAST A LONG TIME...THAT
COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT TEMPERATURES. ALSO IF CLOUDS FROM
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION DEVELOP QUICKLY THAT COULD ALSO HINDER
TEMPERATURES. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THIS WILL HAPPEN. SO
PLAYED IT CONSERVATIVE AND STAYED NEAR THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR THE
MAXES.

MID LEVEL AND JET WINDS ARE WEAK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY.
FORCING ALOFT APPEARS WEAK. DURING THE NIGHT A RIGHT REAR QUADRANT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE BEST AFFECTS LOOKING TO BE IN THE
SOUTHEAST HALF. SO FORCING APPEARS TO BE WEAK. FRONT SAGS BACK OVER
THE AREA TODAY AND LOOKS TO BE ROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST. THE MODELS HAVE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THEY DIFFER ON WHERE/WHEN
THEY DEVELOP IT ALONG WITH WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR.

00Z NAM TOOK A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA
EARLY THIS MORNING AND INCREASED ITS COVERAGE WHILE DEVELOPING A
SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD POOL/FRONT
SURGING BACK SOUTH DEVELOPED A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF PRECIPITATION
THAT SURGED SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. RECENT RUNS OF
THE ECMWF SUPPORTED THIS SCENARIO AS WELL. OTHER MODELS INCLUDING
THE NAM ALSO BROUGHT IN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/PV ANOMALY IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND BROUGHT/DEVELOPED PRECIPITATION FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE 06Z NAM NOW HAS BACKED COMPLETELY AWAY FROM ITS
00Z SCENARIO AND GONE BACK TO WHAT IT HAS DEPICTED THE PREVIOUS FEW
DAYS WHICH IS DEVELOP A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE HELP OF
THE SHORTWAVE...TO OUR NORTHWEST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN
ACROSS OUR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

BOTH SCENARIOS WHICH DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THEY BRING THE
PRECIPITATION IN AND TAKE IT OUT WILL BRING A LOT OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION. SAME
OBSERVATIONS APPLY TO WHAT THE DAY SHIFT MADE YESTERDAY. 1 TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES OF PWAT WILL BE IN PLACE WITH VERY SLOW STORM
MOVEMENTS. WHEREVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENDS UP WILL ALSO
SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. DESPITE THE WEAK WIND
FIELD...EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS UNDERNEATH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ALONG WITH VERY HIGH LAPSE RATES SHOULD STILL ALLOW STORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL A DEFINITE THREAT. SO PER THE
DISCUSSION ABOVE...HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR
THE FIRST TWO PERIODS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WORDING IN THE
ZONES. THOUGHT ABOUT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT HIGHEST PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WERE SPOTTY. IF HEAVIER RAINFALL OCCURS IN AN AREA NORTH OF
A GOODLAND TO COLBY LINE AND OVER GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES...
THEN FLASH FLOODING BECOME A REAL POSSIBILITY.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS START SHOWING DIFFERENCES AND
CONFUSION BEGINNING IN THIS PERIOD. MAIN JET WINDS LOOK TO STAY SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD.
LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. MAIN SURFACE CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO STAY TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE FROM THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. SO CHOSE TO CONFINE THE HIGHEST POPS TO THE FAR WEST IN
THE AFTERNOON AFTER HAVING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE MORNING.

QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW FAR EAST DOES THE LIFT AND PRECIPITATION
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NIGHT. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE
SHORTWAVE MAKES THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA WITH STORM MOTIONS
INCREASING FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. SO LIKE THE DAY SHIFTS
FORECAST OF PROGRESSING HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME AND DID NOT CHANGE THAT. MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND HEAVY
RAINFALL LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BUT STILL MAY BE POSSIBLE
GIVEN THE LIFT AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. IT LOOKS TO BE COOLER AND
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION ARE AROUND...IT
COULD BE EVEN COOLER.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS IN THE EAST...LOOKS TO BE EXITING THE AREA IN THE MORNING THAT
SHORTWAVE. AGAIN MAIN JET WINDS LOOK TO STAY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW WILL CAUSE LEE TROUGH TO
STRENGTHEN BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. THE
GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS SUPPORT GOING WINDY WITH A
POSSIBILITY OF GETTING VERY CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. THESE
WINDS SHOULD KEEP OR INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH A DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY INSTABILITY AXIS ALSO
DEVELOPS OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE MODELS INCREASE 700 MB TEMPERATURES TO POINT
WHERE THE WEST MAY BE CAPPED. AT THIS TIME INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY
AND BROUGHT THEM BACK FURTHER WEST BUT VERY UNSURE ABOUT THIS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

MODELS INDICATE A MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE COUNTRY THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH A TROUGH IN THE WEST AND A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. STRONGER 500 MB JET STREAM STAYS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE TRI STATE AREA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN FRIDAY
EVENING WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW PATTERN.
NUMEROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PASS THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS AND GEM MODELS
INDICATE STRONGER JET OF 35-40 KTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TRI STATE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY PROVIDING UNSETTLED WEATHER COMBINED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE LOWER LEVEL JET FLOW AT 850 MB WILL
REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH JET
MAXES IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SURFACE DECOUPLING. THE STRONGER
AREAS OF LOWER LEVEL JETS SHOULD REMAIN TOWARD THE CENTER OF
KANSAS...HOWEVER SPEEDS OF BETWEEN 40 AND 60 KTS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THE WEEKEND.  THETA E VALUES
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 335 AND 345K
...WITH 850 TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 85 AND 90 F.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE AT THE SURFACE...PROVIDING PLENTY OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE TRI STATE AREA AND REMAIN STATIONARY FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A DRY LINE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ADVANCE AND
RETREAT WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY.  SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK
GREAT FOR OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT ENOUGH CAPE EXISTS FOR SOME
CONVECTIVE SUPPORT. INSTABILITY LOOKS THE BEST FOR AFTERNOON HOURS
FOR SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO THE
MID 90S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.  SURFACE DEW POINT ANALYSIS SHOW
STRONGEST DRY LINE DEVELOPMENT FOR FRIDAY...WITH GRADIENT OF BETWEEN
30 AND 40 DEGREES ACROSS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE DRY LINE WILL BE
WEAKER FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH WILL PROVIDE MUCH LESS LIFT
FOR CONVECTION INITIATION.

THE WEATHER FOR THE PERIOD SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM.
INSTABILITY AT THE UPPER LEVELS AND THE SURFACE WILL PROVIDE SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR EACH DAY IN THE PERIOD...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND. STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL DEPEND ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE DRY LINE AND THE ALIGNMENT OF UPPER LEVEL
INSTABILITY. FOR NOW...ALIGNMENT IS ONLY SLIGHTLY ORGANIZED AT
BEST. THEREFORE...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLIGHT AT THIS
POINT ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION....(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A COUPLE
EXCEPTIONS POSSIBLE. FIRST...ANVIL REMAINS OF CONVECTION ARE
STARTING TO CLEAR OUT...WITH CLEAR SKIES ALREADY OVER KGLD. SKIES
WILL CLEAR AT KMCK SOON AS WELL. THINKING A SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL
PLAY OUT TONIGHT WITH SOME MVFR VIS DUE TO FOG AS A RESULT OF
LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTIFUL MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINS. SECOND...
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN AND MOVE THROUGH LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST DOWNPOURS DUE TO HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT IN THE ATMOSPHERE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR
THIS MORNING BEFORE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT KGLD AND EAST
AT KMCK LATE THIS MORNING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH