000
FXUS63 KGLD 091730
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1130 AM MDT WED JUL 9 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 840 AM MDT WED JUL 9 2014

PERFORMED AN UPDATE FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT AFTER REVIEWING THE LATEST
GUIDANCE. SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED POP TIMING TO DELAY PRECIP UNTIL AFTER
00Z FOR MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP AFTER 21Z. ADDED
STRONG T-STORM MENTION TO WX GRIDS AND CHANGED FROM PROBABILISTIC TO
COVERAGE DESCRIPTION....EARLY 12Z GUIDANCE IS STILL INDICATING A
MODERATE CAP IN PLACE BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH MAY PRECLUDE
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS. STILL HAVE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHETHER
ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS WILL BE THERE FOR STORMS LATE TODAY...WITH
THE CAP AND TIMING OF LARGE SCALE FORCING BEING THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS. AT THIS POINT THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS APPEARS EAST OF
THE COLORADO STATE LINE IN SW NEBRASKA AND NW KANSAS...BUT ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH AROUND
1500 J/KG MLCAPE AND 30 TO 40 KTS EFFECTIVE SHEAR. CONCERNS
REMAIN LARGE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 65
MPH...AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT WED JUL 9 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES EAST TO BE REPLACED OVER THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH. EXPECT THE
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO
MAINTAIN THE TRANSPORT OF LOW 60S DEWPOINT AIR INTO THE REGION AND
STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY OVER THE EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S WHILE THE
WESTERN SECTIONS WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S. THIS WILL PRODUCE AN
AXIS OF INSTABILITY THAT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE CENTRAL
SECTIONS BY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS AXIS OF CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY AND PROGRESS
FURTHER EAST ACROSS KANSAS AND NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. SHEAR WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SUPERCELLS THAT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
ORGANIZED THROUGH THE LATE EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 90S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES EXPANDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. SEVERAL SMALLER WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION. IT
APPEARS THE SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED LOW CENTER THAT
REMAINS PARKED OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION WITH A BOUNDARY
EXTENDING EASTWARD OVER THE PLAINS STATES. THE LOCATION OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY IS IN QUESTION AND COULD SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THE
LOCATION OF ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ALOFT MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE THEREFORE TRIED TO BROAD BRUSH POPS AS MUCH
AS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE BETTER CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM MDT WED JUL 9 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN
INFLUENCE ON HIGH PLAINS WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHICH WILL
BLOCK THE STRONGER AREAS OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET FLOW AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE WEAK FORCING AT THE UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...SOME WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACTIVITY
WILL BE PRESENT IN THE MID AND LOWER LEVELS FOR SATURDAY. THE MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN COMBINATION WITH A SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH LEE CYCLOGENESIS
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES ALOFT OVER THE
AREA DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH HIGH THETA E VALUES AT
THE SURFACE AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL SUPPORT PRECIPITATION.
MODEL FORECASTS DEPICT THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING
SOMEWHAT STATIONARY OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY. WITH A LACK OF JET SPEEDS ALOFT...LAYER BULK SHEAR
NUMBERS ARE FAIRLY LOW AND STORM MOTIONS ARE WEAK...WHICH DOES NOT
SEEM TO INDICATE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY
ALOFT WILL BE PRESENT IN THE ENVIRONMENT TO ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT
CONVECTION WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BASED ON PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AND DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES ALOFT.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO THE
NORTH OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY.  GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE DOWN THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE
TRI STATE AREA ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS IN
THE MID 80S FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM MDT WED JUL 9 2014

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT GLD AND
MCK...WITH CHANCE FOR STORMS THIS EVENING WHICH COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE
FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO MVFR OR WORSE. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN AREAL
COVERAGE OF STORMS LATE TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT
ULTIMATELY EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE SCATTERED SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP.
THUS...HAVE OPTED FOR VCTS FOR BOTH GLD AND MCK UNTIL BETTER
TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION CAN BE DETERMINED. ANY STORMS
COULD POSSIBLY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO 5 MILES OR LESS FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD /LESS THAN AN HOUR/...BUT DO NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE
SUCH A REDUCTION AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...RETURNING AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJM
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JJM