Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 280826

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
226 AM MDT THU JUL 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 226 AM MDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Another round of severe weather appears likely this afternoon as
the next shortwave trough topping the ridge slides down the
central High Plains in the northwest flow aloft. The combination
of strong instabilty of up to 3500 j/kg of CAPE and deep layer
shear of up to 50kts will set the stage for possible supercells in
the initiation phase with attendant threats of large hail,
damaging winds and a few tornadoes...then transitioning to a wind
and hail threat this evening as storms slide southeast and merge
into a possible MCS. A few isolated thunderstorms may linger into
the overnight but best chances will be early.

Instability will be lacking on Friday with a relatively cool
easterly upslope regime in the low levels. Not seeing much forcing
for precipitation on the synoptic scale, but cannot rule out a few
non-severe storms developing in the afternoon on the higher
terrain of eastern Colorado then moving into western parts of the
area in the evening.

The upper ridge will nudge eastward across the Rockies on Saturday
with rising heights forecast over the central plains. There are
some weak qpf signals in a few models apparently linked to a weak
disturbance rotating around the core of the ridge, so won`t go
completely dry but chances appear slim for precipitation. It will
be very unstable and deep layer shear will be around 40kts so if
something were to develop a severe storm cannot be ruled out.

Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal today, below
normal on Friday then near normal on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 226 AM MDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Unsettled weather is anticipated during the extended, with chances
for thunderstorms nearly every period. Warmer temperatures return
to the region early next week.

At the start of the period, flow aloft is northwesterly with an area
of high pressure over the Desert Southwest and a trough over the
eastern half of the CONUS. On Sunday, the high begins to move east
and upper level ridging progresses towards the Plains. The ridging
continues to build into the region through midweek as a couple
closed lows move across Canada. With monsoonal moisture filtering
north towards the High Plains and multiple shortwaves passing
through the flow Sunday through Wednesday, there are chances for
thunderstorms each afternoon/evening. However, with differing
guidance, kept only slight chances for precipitation at this time
until timing and location of features are better resolved.

Hot temperatures return next week with highs in the mid to upper 90s
on Sunday and Monday and in the low to mid 90s on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Low temperatures look to remain in the 60s/low 70s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1122 PM MDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Scattered thunderstorms overnight appear to have moved south of
the terminals for now...but more storms are developing in the
Nebraska panhandle and moving southwest and may impact the area
again before sunrise. There will also be some patch fog developing
around sunrise. For Thursday...thunderstorm chances will continue
to be the main aviation concern. There could be two rounds... one
in the morning and stronger storms in the afternoon. Exact timing
of the impacts is difficult so will carry VCTS during the times
which have the best chances for a thunderstorm. Some severe storms
will be possible in the afternoon with gusty winds and large hail.


.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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