Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 172035
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
135 PM MST Tue Jan 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 244 AM MST Tue Jan 17 2017

Main forecast concern will be temperatures. Satellite showing a
strong zonal flow over most of the Pacific. This transitions into an
amplified and split flow over the country. The models were close at
mid levels with the Gfs doing slightly better than the rest. Models
tended to be too cool over us and to our north with the Canadian and
Gfs doing a little better.

Today/tonight...Initial question will be if any light snow will be
ongoing in Greeley and Wichita counties this morning. Mid level
sticks around through mid morning. Current radar is showing weak
returns over those counties but area has been steadily decreasing in
strength and size.

Yesterday most of the area received ice accumulation with not as
much snow. Clouds over the south will steadily decrease by late
morning. Mostly light westerly winds will be in place. Am just not
sure how much the snow will slow down the temperature recovery. At
this time what the blend gave me seems reasonable and made little to
no changes. Light west/drainage winds tonight with little to no
cloud cover will allow temperatures to fall below guidance.

Wednesday/Wednesday night...southern end of complex positively
tilted upper trough becomes cut off to the southwest during the
previous period. This system then slowly drifts to the northeast
during this period. Our area remains on the north and west sides of
this elongated circulation during this period. Soundings and plan
view relative humidity forecasts show the there will be no low level
moisture to work with. So despite being in a favorable location the
main affect of this system will be to produce clouds over the
southeast portion. Temperature guidance for this period was
reasonable and made no adjustments.

Thursday/Thursday night...Upper low continue to slowly move east.
Some model output wants to produce very light precipitation. Do not
see that happening right now due to a dry air mass in place. High
temperatures continue to warm and the forecaster builder output
looks reasonable at this time and made no changes.

For the night some model output indicating that will get strong
return of low level moisture. So at the very least stratus looks to
make a return. Not sold on any fog yet, and will wait to see what
the models show tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 135 PM MST Tue Jan 17 2017

For this extended forecast period, mostly dry weather is expected to
prevail. However, a few opportunities for wintry precipitation will
exist so focus has been placed on these opportunities in this
discussion.

Quiet weather is expected initially in the period across the High
Plains. A slow moving upper low will be situated over the plains,
slowly migrating east as it undergoes slight intensification.
However, with the low already overhead and moving away, am not
anticipating any notable precipitation with this system. Any heavy
precipitation will occur well east of the region, over the
Mississippi Valley. Some light rain or freezing rain is possible
Thursday night into Friday morning east of a line from Norton, KS to
Leoti, KS but am not excited about this slight chance. For the most
part, precipitation is not anticipated.

The next in a series of disturbances arrives Friday night. A quick
moving, negatively tilted trough ejects from the Rockies and slides
northeast on a course towards the northern United States. Some
guidance members are projecting light precipitation developing on
the northwest side of the departing low. This would favor a band of
precipitation, likely snow. At this time, the quickness of the
system would suggest that only light snow accumulations should be
anticipated.

Finally, a larger disturbance may move across the High Plains next
Tuesday (1/24). This system could be a larger weather maker with
cold temperatures, potential strong winds and snow. For now, this
system is a long ways off and, as with this past system, there is
always potential for the storm track to shift several times before
the storm actually arrives. The path of this system will be critical
as to what winds and snow amounts are observed. Something to keep an
eye on but nothing to start preparing for at this present time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1054 AM MST Tue Jan 17 2017

Main aviation concern during the TAF period will be the potential
fog for this evening and overnight. The combination of light
winds, clear skies, and moist air provide the set up for fog to
form this evening. How long it will last depends on how quickly a
surface trough pushes through the region.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JBH


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