Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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580
FXUS63 KGLD 082331
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
431 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A RIDGE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND A TROUGH OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.  A LARGE
EXPANSE OF CLOUD COVER WAS UNDER THE TROUGH...WITH MORE PATCHY CLOUD
COVER IN THE NORTHERN FLOW OVER THE PLAINS.  AT THE SURFACE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WERE REPORTED ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE TRI-STATE
AREA.  WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH HAD BEEN REPORTED AT HILL CITY AND
MCCOOK DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.  WINDS HAVE DECREASED SOME OVER
THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA AS HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OVERHEAD.
EXPECT THE WINDS TO STRENGTHEN AS THE CLOUD COVER BECOMES MORE
BROKEN THIS AFTERNOON.  THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON.

EARLY THIS EVENING THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AS THE INVERSION
RETURNS.  LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...DESPITE
THE RADIATIONAL COOLING...AS HIGHER DEW POINTS MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST.  THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD ALLOWING SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION
DURING THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY DURING THE LATE MORNING AS
THE LINGERING STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE
GROUND SOMEWHAT.  BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS
TODAY...INCREASED WINDS ABOVE ALMOST ALL MODEL DATA.  LOOKS
LIKE A FAIRLY BRIEF WINDOW OF STRENGTHENING WINDS LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DECLINE DURING THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON.

HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW
WARMER AIR TO CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE TEMPERATURES. SATELLITE SHOWING AN
AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
AT JET LEVEL...THE CANADIAN/GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE
ECMWF/NAM. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS WERE FINE HOWEVER THEY WERE NOT
QUITE STRONG ENOUGH WITH THE VERY STRONG/AMPLIFIED WESTERN RIDGE.
THE GFS/UKMET WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE CANADIAN/ECMWF.

THE NAM WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF ON THE SURFACE
WIND/PRESSURE PATTERN. THE MODELS TENDED TO BE A LITTLE WARM ON THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD WITH THE CANADIAN DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN
THE SREF/GFS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY ADJUSTMENTS. IF YOU BELIEVE
THE MORE AGGRESSIVE NAM WE COULD END UP HAVING A DECENT STRATUS
SHIELD. EVEN WITH THE SNOW COVER...AREA HAS NOT BEEN GETTING ANY
FOG. CONSIDERING THE DRY AIR COMING IN FROM LOW LEVELS...BELIEVE
THE STRATUS AND ESPECIALLY FOG IS GETTING OVERDONE. KEPT
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE GUIDANCE.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOWING WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS...AT DIFFERENT SPEEDS...BLOWING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY. NORMALLY THAT WOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO A BIG WARMUP.
HOWEVER...THESE WINDS WILL BE BLOWING ACROSS A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL
SNOWFIELD. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUN. GUT FEELING WOULD SAY THE
MODELS HAVE IT TOO WARM. TOUGH CALL BUT ENDED UP MAKING ONLY
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES I INHERITED.

UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING
THE NIGHT. AS A RESULT THE MODELS ARE BRINGING IN THE NEXT SURFACE
HIGH INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...AND PUSHING A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. CONSIDERING
WHERE THE SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH AM THINKING THE MODELS MAY BE A
LITTLE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS BUT DEFINITELY SEE THE POSSIBILITY OF
THE FRONT MAKING IT INTO THE FAR EASTERN PORTION. AGAIN WHAT IS IN
THE GRIDS ALREADY LOOKS REASONABLE AND ONLY MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY IN THE EASTERN PORTION.

THURSDAY...CONTINUED TRICKY TO PROBLEMATIC TEMPERATURE FORECAST. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE COLD AIR MAKES IT INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
AREA AND IT MAY NOT RETREAT VERY FAST. IT LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE A
TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKE
THEY DECREASE...AND DO THAT THE MOST WHERE THE SNOW COVER IS AT.
DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHAT WILL
HAPPEN.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS PROGRESS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
AREA INTO FRIDAY WITH DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THOSE DIFFERENCES CENTER AROUND HOW MUCH THE MODELS PUSH THE RIDGE
EAST...FLATTEN THE RIDGE...AND WHAT THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. THE ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE MORE
PROGRESSIVE/LESS AMPLIFIED AND STRONGER WITH THE INCOMING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAN THE GFS.

THE GFS HOLDS MORE OF THE TROUGH BACK FURTHER WEST AND HAS STRONGER
RIDGING OVER THE AREA FOR MORE OF THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOWER ARRIVAL
OF THE SHORTWAVE THAN THE OTHER TWO MODELS. AFTER THIS TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN ON MONDAY.

ONE OR TWO MODELS HAVE SOME LIGHT QPF NEAR THE AREA SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER AS HAS BEEN THE CASE LATELY IT APPEARS THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS TO ONLY HAVE MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND LITTLE
TO NO MOISTURE AT LOW LEVELS WITH A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER AT THE
BOTTOM. THE CRH INIT GAVE ME DRY POPS AND HAVE NO PROBLEM WITH THAT
AND WILL MAKE NO CHANGES.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE COLD AIR TEMPORARILY RETREATS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. THEN THE NEXT ARCTIC HIGH MOVES INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY AND PUSHES A STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THAT SHOULD BRING MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THEN AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA...IT LOOKS LIKE THE COLD AIR GETS PUSHED
TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY...QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR EAST DOES IT GO.
WARMER AIR AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

SO EVEN WITHOUT THE LINGERING SNOW COVER...WE LOOK TO HAVE A
WAFFLING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN WHERE THE COLD AIR WILL BE/HOW FAST IT WILL COME BACK
IN...AND COLLABORATION WITH MY NEIGHBORS...CHOSE TO KEEP WHAT THE
INIT GAVE ME. HOWEVER...A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT LOOKS FAIRLY
CERTAIN AND A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS...THAN WHAT THE MODELS/FORECAST
DEPICTS...IS POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY AND MAYBE SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 431 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES FOR ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH MAINLY SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. FOR WINDS...MEANDERING
BETWEEN WNW AND NNW AROUND 10-15KTS....WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20KTS
FOR KGLD AFT 15Z TUESDAY. LLWS POSSIBLE FOR KGLD 06Z-15Z FOR
340/35KT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JN



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