Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 221735
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1135 AM MDT Sat Apr 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 259 AM MDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Latest upper air analysis depicts a closed low over Eastern Kansas.
Behind the closed low a ridge was building in from the northwest.
Due to the wet ground conditions and cool temperatures, patchy fog
has been reported at a couple sites.

Today patchy fog may develop along and west of Highway 27 where the
light surface winds converge.  Any fog that develops will end by mid
morning.  Visibility in the fog may briefly fall to a half mile or
mile.  Otherwise the clouds will gradually clear as drier air and a
surface high move over the forecast area.  The surface high will
move through, causing the wind to be light.  Behind the surface high
temperatures will warm.  Highs will be warmer than yesterday due to
WAA behind the surface high.

Tonight the light wind, dew points around 30 degrees, and clear sky
will provide good conditions for radiational cooling.  With lows in
the 30s, many locations may have frost develop.  Am expecting frost
to be the most likely for Gove, Logan, Wichita, Greeley, and Thomas
counties where winds will be lightest and temperatures the coolest.
A frost advisory may be needed for these counties as a result. After
collaborating with southern neighbor will hold off issuing an
advisory at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 259 AM MDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Sunday will be windy as a low level jet moves over the forecast area
and the surface pressure gradient tightens.  Winds may peak in the
late morning, then decrease slightly in the early afternoon then
increase again in the mid/late afternoon following the trend of the
winds in the low level jet.  Wind gusts of 35-40 MPH can be
expected.  Along with the winds will be warmer temperatures.

Sunday night the winds be lighter but remain breezy due to the tight
surface pressure gradient lingering through most of the night.  The
breezy south winds will cause lows to be warmer than tonight.

Monday morning a surface trough will move through the Tri-State
Area.  Behind the surface trough warmer air will move in, leading to
unseasonably warm weather for the forecast area.  Behind the surface
trough winds will be much slower.

Monday night an upper level short wave trough will move across the
northern half of the forecast area.  Ahead of the short wave trough
dew points increase in the evening but the lift will be lowest. The
strongest lift with the trough will occur overnight when drier air
moves in.  Due to the moisture and lift not aligning well, am not
very optimistic with rainfall chances.

Tuesday through Friday

The upcoming week looks to be active with precipitation expected
each day.  An open trough aloft moves east of the Rockies on Tuesday
and Wednesday and is followed by several impulses circulating
through a deeper area of low pressure that moves east of Rockies by
next weekend.  The ECMWF and GFS end up with similar timing of the
main upper trough moving east of the Rockies on Saturday, but arrive
there differently.  The ECMWF is initially more progressive than the
GFS as the GFS holds on to a deeper trough west of the Rockies on
Friday.  However, the models reverse roles as the ECMWF produces a
deeper closed low over the 4-corners area over the weekend while the
GFS closes off the initial low over the northern plains with the
secondary low remaining as an open wave.

The surface reflection of first upper low produces a low center over
the southern plains on Tuesday that lifts into the Mississippi
valley area by Wednesday.  The initially more progressive ECMWF
produces a second low that lifts out of the southern plains into the
midwest Thursday and Thursday night while the GFS lifts a surface
low out of the high plains at a slower pace from late Thursday
through late Friday.

Tend to favor the somewhat slower pace of the GFS although
confidence remains low.  The bottom line is that each day should see
some kind of precipitation across the central high plains along with
above normal temperatures early in the week steadily cooling through
the week to slightly cooler than average values by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1134 AM MDT Sat Apr 22 2017

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. Northerly
winds less than 10kt will shift to the south and increase late
tonight as high pressure slides south of both terminals. Stronger
winds are expected to develop by mid morning Sunday as low
pressure deepens over eastern Colorado. South winds may gust
25-30kt at both terminals late Sunday morning into Sunday
afternoon.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...LOCKHART/JTL
AVIATION...DR


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