Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
FXUS63 KGLD 210732
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
132 AM MDT SUN AUG 21 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 132 AM MDT Sun Aug 21 2016
Across the forecast area this morning...temperatures are ranging
from the mid 40s thru the mid 50s under a veil of thin high clouds.
Winds are light and variable as region still seeing transition of
surface ridge to the ESE.
For today...with high pressure continuing to shift out over the
Central/Southern Plains...do expect variable winds to begin to shift
to a southerly direction. This in turn will allow for increased WAA
into the entire CWA. The result will have the area seeing near to
above normal temps for highs.
The rest of the forecast period will continue similar trend. Surface
ridge will remain to our east. H5/H7 ridging over the southern
portion of the country...w/ models bringing an upper low eastward
over the northern tier states. Continued WAA over the area will
allow for increased temp trend thru Tuesday...aided by strong
southerly gradient. By late Monday on into Tuesday night...a lee-
side trough will develop over the Front Range and shift east into
the Plains on Tuesday. The remnants of this trough will linger over
the region into Tuesday night. The result of this trough and its
remnants will give the area a chance for rw/trw...especially Tuesday
For temps...Today will have upper 80s across the area...but increase
to the lower to mid 90s for Monday and Tuesday. Overnight lows will
range mainly in the lower to mid 60s. Some mid to upper 50s possible
Tuesday night as the eastward movement of the lee-side trough will
allow for surface ridging and cooler air off the Rockies.
Will continue to monitor for potential record lows this morning w/
ridge cresting over the area. The current records are as follows:
Hill City KS 50 degrees set last set in 2009
McCook NE 48 degrees set in 1950
Goodland KS 46 degrees set in 1964
Colby KS 46 degrees set in 1964
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 307 PM MDT Sat Aug 20 2016
The weak westerly flow aloft in place over the Central High plains
region on Sunday night transitions to southwest flow on Monday and
Tuesday as a series of short wave troughs lift through the desert
southwest and move into the intermountain region from the west.
Temperatures across the forecast area warm on Monday and Tuesday
with southerly surface flow in place ahead of the deepening lee
trough associated with the upper short waves moving east of the
Rockies. Highs in the 90s are anticipated.
A few thunderstorms are possible by late Tuesday in advance of a
cold front expected to move through the forecast area Tuesday night.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected across the area Tuesday night
and and Wednesday as the cold front moves through and the more
significant short wave trough aloft moves east of the Rockies and
across the Central High Plains. Temperatures will cool on Wednesday
and Thursday with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s.
Wednesday night and Thursday dry conditions are expected as a cooler
area of high pressure moves into the region and the upper flow
transitions back to a westerly flow aloft and the upper trough moves
out of the area.
From Thursday night through the end of the week and into next
weekend there is a possibility of showers each day as a number of
short waves move east of the Rockies and across the Central High
Plains region. With generally south winds in place at the
surface...high temperatures are expected to warm back up from the
upper 70s to the lower 80s.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1118 PM MDT Sat Aug 20 2016
Conditions...VFR with clear skies.
Winds........06z Sunday-16z Sunday...Light and variable.
16z Sunday-02z Monday...SSW 10-20kts.
02z Monday-06z Monday...SSE 10-20kts.
Low level wind shear(LLWS)....02z Monday-06z Monday SW at 30kts.