Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 070838
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
138 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 822 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

HAVE ISSUED UPDATE TO INCREASE AREAL COVERAGE OF HIGH CLOUDS BASED
ON LATEST IR SATELLITE TREND. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS
INTACT AT THIS TIME...BUT MAY TWEAK TEMPS A BIT IF THE RATE OF
DECREASE IS SLOWED BY ADDITIONAL VEIL OF CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY.  A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY.

A TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
WITH SOME FORCING OVER THE FA SUNDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER LAYER MEAN
RH FROM 850 TO 500MB IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF ANY SNOW REACHING THE
SURFACE.  CONSEQUENTLY...POPS WILL BE NIL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY DUE TO
DRY CONDITIONS.

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA.  WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GO ABOVE HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE UPPER TEENS IN EASTERN
COLORADO TO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS.  MAX TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY REACH THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

FOR THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...THE PRIMARY TREND OBSERVED
SHOULD BE A WARMING TREND WITH PERSISTENT DRY WEATHER. A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN LIKELY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE UNITED STATES
THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS PATTERN INCLUDES A MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND A MASSIVE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CONTROLLING THE PATTERN TO THE WEST. THIS LEAVES THE TRI-
STATE REGION DIRECTLY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW.
GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING WITH WHICH PRESSURE SYSTEM...THE LOW TO THE
EAST OR THE HIGH TO THE WEST...WILL BE THE KEY INFLUENCING FACTOR TO
OUR WEATHER. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE IS LOWERED FURTHER IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

IF THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST WINS THE BATTLE...
ANTICIPATE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASSING THROUGH AND LIKELY BRINGING A
COLD FRONT OR TWO WITH IT. THIS MAY HAPPEN SATURDAY ACCORDING TO
SOME FORECAST GUIDANCE MEMBERS. HOWEVER...WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE FORECAST...ANY FRONTS/DISTURBANCES THAT
PASS THROUGH WOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...IF
ANY PRECIPITATION OCCURS AT ALL.

IF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WINS...WARM WEATHER SHOULD
DOMINATE THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONTS PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN EAST. DRY
WEATHER IS LIKELY AND HOW WARM TEMPERATURES CLIMB DEPENDS ON ANY
REMAINING SNOW COVER...DAYTIME MIXING AND CLOUD COVER AMONG MANY
OTHER FACTORS. EITHER WAY...IF THE RIDGE DOMINATES OUR PATTERN...
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES. WINDS BECOMING WNW 15-30KTS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 KTS AT TIMES. WIND SHEAR N AT 50KTS AFT 02Z
MONDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JN


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