Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 240752

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
152 AM MDT Wed May 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1018 AM MDT Tue May 23 2017

Latest upper analysis shows the closed low moving northeast with a
ridge approaching from the west. Satellite imagery shows cumulus
clouds developing as temperatures continue to warm, replacing the
wave clouds that are indicative of a stable environment. At the
surface winds continue to increase as the low level jet over the
forecast area begins to mix down to the ground. Anticipate
northerly winds to increase from north to south, with the peak
wind gusts occurring during the first part of the afternoon. With
weak lift over the entire forecast area this afternoon and steep
temperature lapse rates in place, continue to foresee the
potential for isolated showers to develop.

This evening winds will rapidly decline and become light. Any
lingering showers will end as temperatures cool.  During the
overnight hours a surface high will move through from the west,
causing the north winds to turn to the west. The sky will also
clear from west to east ahead of the surface high as drier air
moves in behind the closed low headed toward the Great Lakes. With
favorable conditions for radiational cooling, am anticipating
lows falling into the mid 30s to around 40. Considered issuing a
frost advisory for the west half to third of the forecast area,
however surface to 850mb temperatures will be warming as the
surface high moves in from the west. In fact the low level
temperature field was cooler last night over Eastern Colorado and
lows only fell into the mid 30s. With this in mind am thinking the
current forecast lows look good. While frost will form, am
thinking it will be confined to low lying areas and not be a large
enough in extent to warrant an advisory. Plan on issuing a
graphic today highlighting the potential for frost to get the
word out.

Wednesday winds will be much lighter than today as the surface
high continues to move through ahead of an upper level ridge. A
warm front will move through the forecast area from the west. Due
to subsidence and dry air, am not expecting any storm development
as the front moves through.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 152 AM MDT Wed May 24 2017

The extended period is currently forecast to have precipitation
chances during Saturday but dry conditions are currently looking to
overcome the region, for the most part, Sunday through Tuesday.

Staring off on Saturday, there will be chances for rain showers and
storms most of the day. This is due to a trough pushing through the
region (there is a closed low over south central Canada creating
this upper level flow pattern over the area). Based on current
guidance, it is difficult to determine how severe the storms will
become. There is instabilty and shear over the region but the CAPEs
are not impressive enough at this time to raise any flags. Severe
storms are not out of the question though, Saturday will need to
continue to be monitored as data becomes more clear.

Sunday through Tuesday will have a persistent upper level northwest
flow over the region, but dry air will limit precipitation chances
over the CWA. There is a brief window on Monday afternoon where
portions of the region could see slight chances for rain showers and
storms. The EC is the only model at this time to show a
precipitation signal, so confidence is low at this time.

Temperatures during the period will be the lowest on Saturday in the
60s and low 70s. The remainder of the period will be in the 70s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1112 PM MDT Tue May 23 2017

VFR expected at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. High
pressure at the surface and aloft will result in light winds and
mostly clear skies.




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