Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 141144
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
444 AM MST Tue Nov 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 249 AM MST Tue Nov 14 2017

Currently, a Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for our eastern CWA.
GOES-16 Fog difference channel is displaying a dense stratus deck
for the corresponding advisory areas. Observations are in
agreement with predicted estimates from the HRRR and RAP, so in
the early short term time period, no changes are expected to the
Dense Fog Advisory.

A bit of a dramatic split on temperatures across the area
today. Expecting temperatures in our eastern counties in the low
to mid 50s, while counties along the CO/KS line could see highs
near 70. Southwest winds are pulling in a warmer airmass to the
area, causing this delineation between our western and eastern
CWA.

Expecting zonal flow with a trough passage to the north of our
area on Tuesday into Wednesday, this will produce a brief surge
of wind gusts up to 25 knots across the area Tuesday night into
Wednesday. By Wednesday we should be clearing out and falling
back to our climatological highs and lows for this time of year.
Ridging to our west will continue to build and eliminate any
precipitation chances. The high will amplify allowing us on
Thursday and Friday to get our highs a little warmer than
average.

Thursday night into Friday, we will see a quick change in wind
speeds and direction along with the FROPA. Which will occur after
12Z on Friday continuing into the long term forecast period.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 243 AM MST Tue Nov 14 2017

Good agreement exists between the global models regarding a frontal
passage on Friday. The GFS is more progressive, with the main theta-
e boundary pushing through during the early afternoon. The ECMWF is
a bit more consistent but slower, with a passage during the late
afternoon. There will be a window of opportunity, as the boundary
pushes across the region, for a chance of precipitation. Light
showers during the afternoon have the potential to change over to a
rain/snow mix as sunset approaches and temperatures fall into the
lower to middle 30s. We will rapidly lose our moisture influence in
the post-frontal environment and I expect PoPs to decrease rapidly
from west to east as the theta-e boundary progresses through the
CWA. Breezy north-northwest winds will prevail Friday afternoon and
into the early evening with the FROPA.

Going into Saturday, northwest upper flow continues as high pressure
builds over the Southwestern states. This ridge will influence the
region only slightly as we head into Sunday due to progressive
flattening, leading to zonal flow developing by Sunday afternoon.
Another weak shortwave will traverse the region late Monday evening
bringing a chance of precipitation once more to the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 438 AM MST Tue Nov 14 2017

Expecting VFR conditions to prevail at the Goodland terminal
throughout the remainder of the TAF period. McCook, however, will
be experiencing sub-VFR conditions until at least 16Z. Afterward,
conditions will improve.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for KSZ002>004-
     014>016-028-029-042.

CO...NONE.
NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for NEZ080-081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EV
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...EV



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