Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 211444
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
844 AM MDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 816 AM MDT Sat May 21 2016

Adjusted precipitation chances for today through Sunday morning
based on latest data. Main focus for today will be the chance for
strong to severe storms during the afternoon and possibly early
evening.

Currently looks like the drizzle over the area now will gradually
shift east through mid morning Sunday before coming to an end. The
best chance for measurable drizzle will be east of Highway 25
through Sunday morning where the deepest moisture and strongest
isentropic lift will be. By mid morning Sunday the saturated low
levels will shift east of the area, bringing the drizzle to an
end.

Main focus for today will be the chance for severe storms west of
a line from Brewster to Gove and east of Highway 385 in Kit Carson
and Cheyenne counties, basically between the dry line and the warm
front. Near term models all agree with storms developing in this
part of the area. Further northwest there is a narrow corridor of
CAPE available, however models do not have storms forming there.
The reason could be the storm motion being perpendicular to the
narrow CAPE axis allows little time for any storms to develop
before moving into a very stable environment.

Severe weather threats for today include large hail, possibly up
to baseball size, damaging winds, and possibly a tornado. The best
time for severe weather will begin around 3 PM MT and last as late
as 9 PM MT, although the majority of the severe weather will be
done an hour or two before then. The best window for a tornado to
develop will be closer to 5 PM MT until 7 PM MT or so. Am
anticipating the greatest storm coverage to be by 5 PM MT before
storms move east of the area. After 6 PM MT the severe storms
could become elevated as they move out of the area.

Another round of spread severe weather is anticipated Sunday,
mainly east of Highway 25.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today THROUGH MONDAY night)
Issued at 236 AM MDT Sat May 21 2016

A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER
LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS. UPPER FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHWEST OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL COLORADO. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO EASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.  THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT
INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVE FURTHER EAST ACROSS
KANSAS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE EAST TODAY AS WEAK DYNAMICS
MOVE OVER THE AREA. BOUNDARY LAYER RH INDICATES THE LIKELIHOOD THAT
STRATUS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY OVER MUCH OF THE FA WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE SOUTHWEST FA WEST OF THE DRYLINE. THE DRYLINE WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WITH LOTS OF INSTABILITY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE. SHEAR AROUND 40KTS SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STEERING WINDS SHOULD MOVE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHEAST AT 30 TO 40KTS. THIS WIND DIRECTION
WILL MOVE STORMS INTO MORE STABLE AIR NORTHEAST OF THE DRYLINE. CIN
TAKES OVER BY MID EVENING WITH THUNDERSTORMS WEAKENING. SOUTHEAST
SURFACE WIND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT ABUNDANT SURFACE MOISTURE SO
THAT STRATUS, FOG AND LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL RETURN AND LAST OVERNIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEAR THE
DRYLINE.  THE DRYLINE SHOULD BE A LITTLE FURTHER EAST BUT DIFFICULT
TO PIN DOWN IT EXACT POSITION. STRONG INSTABILITY AND 35 TO 45 KTS
OF SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING MORE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY EVENING AS IT MOVES THROUGH.  SUBSIDENCE AND RESULTING DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR MONDAY.  ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.

MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE COOLER WITH STRATUS LINGERING OVER
A LARGE PART OF THE FA EXCEPT THE FAR WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RANGE FROM NEAR 80 IN EASTERN COLORADO TO THE MID 60S OVER THE
EASTERN FA. MUCH WARMER READINGS IN THE LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN EASTERN
COLORADO TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE EASTERN FA MONDAY.  MIN
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY COOL TO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESday through Friday)
Issued at 236 AM MDT Sat May 21 2016

Unsettled weather is expected during the extended period, with
chances for showers and thunderstorms each day. Near to above
normal temperatures are forecast through midweek.

At the start of the period, weak ridging has pushed east on to the
Great Lakes region while an upper trough moves over the western
CONUS. This setup up establishes southwesterly flow over the High
Plains. At the surface, a boundary stalls over western Kansas. This
boundary will be the area to watch for storm development through
midweek. At this time, the better chance for severe weather appears
to be off to the east and south of the region where better moisture
is located.

Models disagree on how the upper pattern to the west progresses
throughout the work week. In addition, surface feature position and
timing is difficult to determine. Guidance has come into better
agreement that a second system could move towards the area from the
southwestern CONUS later in the week. Nevertheless, weak low
pressure systems pass through, along with disturbances in the upper
flow, as troughing moves eastward and decent low level moisture sits
in place. Precipitation chances could not be ruled out for any
period.

Temperatures gradually decrease throughout the extended. The warmest
day looks to be Tuesday with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s
before temperatures decrease into the mid 60s to mid 70s by Friday.
Lows will be in the mid 40s to upper 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 503 AM MDT Sat May 21 2016

LIFR CONDITIONS AT KGLD WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING TO
MVFR AND EVEN VFR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS WILL LOWER
AGAIN TONIGHT AS MORE STRATUS FOG AND DRIZZLE MOVE INTO THE AREA.
KMCK WILL STAY AT MVFR UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN LOWER TO
LIFR AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.


&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...FS


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