Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 261720
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1120 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 920 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

UPDATE SENT...MAINLY TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALSO ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EAST OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY NORTON TO GOVE AND POINTS EAST.

ADDED THUNDERSTORMS BASED ON 12Z NAM/RUC SHALLOW INSTABILITY
FORECASTS WITH LIMITED CIN. IN THIS INSTABILITY AREA WILL BE SOME
MODEST LOW LEVEL THETA-E CONVERGENCE AS STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE HIGH
WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE. FELT THAT
WITH THE INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL FORCING AND FAVORABLE MOISTURE
FORECASTS A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION WAS WARRANTED.

REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...GENERALLY INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...LOW 60S FOR THE REST OF THE
AREA.

AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECASTS WILL APPROACH 20 PERCENT
AND WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH CONDITIONS WILL GET
CLOSE TO BUT NOT MEET CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

AS OF 3 AM CDT...2 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES DROPPED INTO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. A
FEW READINGS IN THE LOW 20S ARE BEING OBSERVED AS WELL. WINDS ARE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. AT THE SURFACE...AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
DRAPED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER
MONTANA AND WYOMING...SLIDING SOUTHEAST. ALOFT...NORTHWEST FLOW
EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA TO THE HIGH PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS VISIBLE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN MONTANA.

OVERALL...QUIET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHER THAN THIS SLIM CHANCE...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS FORECAST.

FOR TODAY...MAIN WEATHER STORY IS INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. FORECAST GUIDANCE
INDICATES AMPLE MIXING BEFORE ARRIVAL OF DENSER CIRRUS. MOST MODELS
SUGGEST 700 MB WINDS APPROACHING 35-40 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...THE SURFACE LOW OVER MONTANA SURGES SOUTH OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. WE SHOULD OBSERVE RAPID PRESSURE FALLS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW DEEPENS. THEREFORE...EXPECTING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
WINDS SUSTAINED 15-30 MPH...GUSTING 40 TO POSSIBLY 45 MPH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOW 60S ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
CONCERNS THAT THE BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN
A COUPLE DEGREES.

TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH
THE REGION. GLANCING AT THE JET STREAM...VORTICITY AND ISENTROPIC
FIELDS...AM NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH HOW THE FEATURES ARE COMING
TOGETHER FOR POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION. FEEL THAT THE BEST LIFT/FORCING
REMAINS EAST OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. ANOTHER CONCERN
TONIGHT IS TEMPERATURES AS DENSE CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH. REGARDLESS...FORECAST SOUNDING
PROFILES SUGGEST THERE MAY BE ENOUGH COOLING TO ACHIEVE A RAIN/SNOW
MIX WITH ANY SHOWERS. DECIDED TO KEEP POPS MINIMAL AND FORECAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MAINLY NORTH/EAST OF A HAIGLER
NEBRASKA TO NORTON KANSAS LINE. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL BE
LIGHT...ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT MOST. IF SNOW SHOWERS ARE ABLE TO
OCCUR...DO NOT FORESEE ANY ACCUMULATIONS WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
THAT ARE QUITE WARM.

ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IS LIKELY FRIDAY AS A SIMILAR SETUP TO TODAY`S
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP. HOWEVER...THIS TIME AM NOT ANTICIPATING A
DEEPENING LOW WITH RAPIDLY FALLING PRESSURES AS FORECAST TODAY. A
NOTICEABLE WARMUP IS ALSO ANTICIPATED FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT
INCREASE 5-7 DEGREES CELSIUS. THIS WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO
SATURDAY...THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST PERIOD. HIGHS
SATURDAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S...WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. RECORD HIGHS SATURDAY ARE IN THE MID 80S TO
LOW 90S. A "SOFT RECORD" OF 83 DEGREES AT BURLINGTON COLORADO MAY BE
VULNERABLE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE OVER
THE AREA AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY
WILL KEEP WNW FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE GFS/ECMWF DURING THIS TIME AS GFS
WANTING TO SHIFT CUTOFF LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SOUTH OF THE
REGION...COMBINING IT WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH TO BRING IN
PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST ECMWF KEEPS THIS SHORTWAVE TOO FAR SOUTH
DESPITE SURFACE FRONT WORKING OFF THE ROCKIES. WILL OPT TO KEEP CWA
DRY FOR THIS PASSAGE AS SYSTEM SEEMS TOO FAR SOUTH TO BRING INTO
AREA TO BE EFFECTIVE IN OVERCOMING DRY LAYER NEAR SURFACE. BUT GOING
ITO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK...BOTH MODELS SHOW A COUPLE
MORE SHORTWAVES THAT HAVE POTENTIAL FOR BRINGING A ROUND OF RAIN TO
THE AREA. FIRST SYSTEM HAS MOST OF UPPER SUPPORT WELL TO THE NORTH
GIVING NE ZONES BEST CHANCES FOR -RW LATE WEDNESDAY. THE SECOND
SYSTEM HAS BETTER CHANCES TO BRING LIGHT RAIN TO ENTIRE REGION.
500/700 MB TROUGHS DO SWING ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION...WITH
SURFACE LOW OFF TO OUR SE...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SYSTEM TO WRAP
AROUND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE GULF ENHANCING CHANCES FOR RAIN...WITH
BEST CHANCE SIN EASTERN ZONES CLOSEST TO SURFACE LOW. LOOKING FOR
HIGH TEMPS TO INCREASE IN THE SUN-TUES PERIOD FROM THE MID 60S TO
THE LOW TO MID 70S...BUT DROP BACK INTO THE 60S DUE TO INCREASED
CLOUDINESS AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S WITH
SOME 40S MON-TUES NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

KGLD...FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 00Z NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 30KTS
EXPECTED WITH A THIN SHIELD OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS. FROM 01Z THROUGH
11Z WINDS INITIALLY NORTHWEST AROUND 11KTS BUT QUICKLY DECREASE
AND BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE WITH CIGS LOWERING TOWARD 5K FT OR SO.
FROM 12Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WINDS INITIALLY SOUTHEAST
AROUND 6KTS THEN STEADILY VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST/WEST/NORTHWEST AND
SPEEDS AROUND 10KTS. CIGS REMAIN VFR AT 5-6K FT.

KMCK...COMPLEX SCENARIO LOOKS TO BE IN THE MAKING. FROM TAF
ISSUANCE THROUGH 00Z WEST WINDS GUSTING 15-20KTS WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST AND GUST NEAR 30KTS (AFTER 20Z) WITH A THIN SHIELD OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS. AFTER 01Z CIGS LOWER AND SOME SHOWERS OF
RAIN/SNOW OR A COMBINATION OF THE TWO DEVELOP AND CONTINUE THROUGH
06Z WITH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 10KTS OR LESS. FROM 06Z THROUGH
16Z CIGS LOWER TO MVFR CATEGORY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY...BEST CHANCE FOR IMPACTING THE TERMINAL IN THE 12Z-16Z
TIMEFRAME WHERE IFR CIGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SNOW SHOWERS
AND FOG/BR POSSIBLE. WINDS DURING THE PERIOD RATHER LIGHT. AFTER
17Z CIGS LOOK TO IMPROVE TO VFR WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST NEAR
10KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...99



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