Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 042041
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
141 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 139 PM MST
THU FEB 4 2016

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES WILL GRADUALLY BECOME CLOUDY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES ALONG THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE TROUGH WILL BE MOISTURE
STARVED AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE INHIBITED BY DRY AIR AT THE
SURFACE. AS A RESULT...ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FROM GENERALLY A
TRACE TO LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH ARE EXPECTED.

FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES REMAINS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
MORNING WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL PICK UP
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST JUST BEFORE MIDDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION.
DUE TO WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER IN THE REGION...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP
OUT WELL BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY
REACHING THE LOWER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 214 AM MST THU
FEB 4 2016

DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN DEVELOPS ALOFT OVER THE U.S. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FAR WEST AND A LOW SETTLING
INTO THE MID-WEST WITH A TROUGH IN PLACE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION. THIS KEEPS THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...AND KEEPS ANY
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WELL NORTH AND EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS GENERALLY IN PLACE
OVER THE WESTERN U.S.  THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN AND FLATTEN DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. AS THIS
HAPPENS...THE UPPER RIDGE BROADENS OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS
WITH THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE WESTERLY. A SURFACE LEE TROUGH
WILL DEEPENS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IN RESPONSE TO THE MORE WESTERLY
FLOW. SURFACE NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH AND WILL AID IN PUSHING THE COLDER AIR EAST AND WARMING THE
AIR OVER THE WEST WITH DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
TO THE WEST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM THROUGH THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY REACHING
BACK UP INTO THE 50S BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP MELT THE EXTENSIVE
SNOW COVER CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1013 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY WITH INCREASING MID TO
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED AT BOTH TAF SITES THIS EVENING
STARTING AROUND 00Z AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WE WILL SEE A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS
THAN ONE INCH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT AT BOTH TAF SITES AND WILL BE 5 TO 10 KNOTS. VISIBILITIES
COULD BRIEFLY DIP BELOW 5 MILES DURING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW.
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...TL


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