Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 031201
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
601 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 553 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. AFTER NOT
AGREEING THE WHOLE NIGHT...THE LATEST MODEL DATA HAS PUT FOG INTO
THE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. SO ADDED FOG THROUGH 15Z. ALSO LARGE
STRATUS DECK IS APPROACHING THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. SO
DRAMATICALLY INCREASED SKY COVER IN THAT AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCE AND SEVERITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED FLOW FROM THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT IS NOW OVER THE AREA.
SUBTROPICAL CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE WESTERN RIDGE AND STRONG
UPPER LOW IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH OVER WESTERN CANADA. OLD FRONTAL
CURRENTLY NOT TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA.

AT JET LEVEL...THE GFS FOLLOWED BY THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF LOOK TO BE
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REST OF THE OUTPUT WITH THE JET
OVER/NEAR OUR AREA. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS FOLLOWED BY NAM/CANADIAN
WERE DOING THE BEST. ON THE SURFACE WIND/PRESSURE FIELD...THE
CANADIAN WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THE REST OF THE OUTPUT. THE GFS
AND CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REST OF THE OUTPUT
ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION THAT COULD AFFECT THE AREA. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
DAY...THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA IS IN A RIGHT FRONT WHICH MEANS
THE NORTHEAST HALF IS IN THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT. AT THIS TIME
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A 700 MB BAROCLINIC THAT LIES WITH THE
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT. A NUMBER OF CLUSTERS/CELLS EXTENDS FROM EAST
CENTRAL WYOMING INTO FAR EASTERN COLORADO. AT THIS TIME WILL INCLUDE
CHANCE POPS IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS JUST TO THE
EAST OF THAT. THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO LAST THROUGH THE MORNING AS
SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH. RIGHT NOW LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS OCCURRING
WITH THESE STORMS.

BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ALL THE MODELS AGREE THAT A RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT WILL BE AFFECTING THE AREA INTO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
AREAS. THAT MOVES ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. SOME INDICATION THERE COULD BE A COUPLED JET
STRUCTURE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. ALSO BEST
MID LEVEL LIFT FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WHAT LOOKS TO BE RATHER
INTENSE 700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS AT THE SAME TIME.

SO BELIEVE THE CONVECTION WILL TRANSITION FROM THE WEST INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS IN THE EAST. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND SLOW STORM
MOVEMENT INDICATE THE THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. MODELS SHOW
DECENT SHEAR...ESPECIALLY DIRECTIONAL...DESPITE A LACK OF STRONG
FLOW AT LOW LEVELS. SO SOME SEVERE STORMS LOOK PROBABLE.

ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN A LITTLE PER THE EXPECTED MORNING
CONVECTION AND LIGHT UPSLOPE WINDS DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUING TO AFFECT THE AREA.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...A LEFT FRONT QUADRANT LOOKS TO AFFECT THE
NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. ABOVE MENTIONED
LIFT ALSO CONTINUES ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING SO LINGERING
THUNDERSTORMS THERE LOOK APPROPRIATE.

THE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE EXACT POSITION OF THE JET BUT IN GENERAL
DO AGREE THAT A RIGHT REAR QUADRANT WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF
TO TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA ALONG WITH EITHER THE JET AXIS OVERHEAD OR
THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT REMAINING IN/NEAR THE EAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DURING
AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS. ALSO A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS DURING THE EVENING. SO IT DOES LOOK LIKE POPS NEED TO
BE RAISED INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND LIFT...IT IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE THAT
THESE POPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED. GEFS PROBABILITIES FOR .05 SHOW
100 PERCENT CHANCE IN THE WEST HALF DURING THE EVENING. DEFINITELY
NOT WHAT PEOPLE WANT TO HEAR FOR THE 4TH OF JULY. THIS WILL
DEFINITELY HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE MUCH BETTER/STRONGER SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE STRONGER WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS POSSIBLE. SO THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS HIGHER.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN
HALF...WITH SLOW STORM MOVEMENTS EXPECTED. SO ADD LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE THREATS.

MODELS WARM UP THE MAXES BUT THINK THEY MAY BE GOING TOO WARM WHICH
HAS BEEN THE HABIT IN THIS PATTERN RECENTLY. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM
SOUTH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION WITH CLOUDS AROUND IN THE
MORNING DUE TO THE CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON. SO TENDED TO GO BELOW THE GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...JET LIFT REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA. SURFACE
FOCUS LOOKS TO BE NEAR/JUST WEST OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE RIDGE AT MID LOOKS TO BE OVER THE AREA MOST OF
THE DAY. BY LATE IN THE DAY A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH STARTS
IMPACTING THE FAR WEST/NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA. PROBLEM IS
THAT 700 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT LEAST PLUS 15 TO 17. CURRENT
FORECAST HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FAR WEST. THAT LOOKS REASONABLE
AND WILL ONLY MAKE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE AREA.

STRONG FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
NIGHT. MODELS DISAGREE WITH WHERE/HOW FAR SOUTH TO PUT THE RAINFALL.
SEE NO REASON WITH THE STRONG FRONT AND LIFT THAT MOST IF NOT THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE SOMETHING. THE DETERMINISTIC QPF
WOULD TEND TO FAVOR THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH THE GEFS
PROBABILITIES POINT TO NEAR 100 PERCENT CHANCE THAT WE WILL SEE
SOMETHING. A LITTLE TOO FAR OUT TO GO EXTREMELY HIGH SO WILL HAVE
HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
HIGHEST IN THE NORTHEAST HALF.

SHEAR DECREASES SOME...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. HOWEVER ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR REMAIN THAT SEVERE STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. OF ALL THE PERIODS...SUNDAY NIGHT
LOOKS LIKE THE BIGGEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH PWS FROM 1.5
TO ALMOST 2 INCHES.

THIS LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY. THIS IS PLAUSIBLE SINCE THERE WILL
BE DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE INCOMING FRONT.
HOWEVER...THINK THE MODELS ARE RUNNING A LITTLE WARM AND WENT CLOSER
TO THE CLUSTERING/CONSENSUS OF THE OUTPUT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FORECAST MODELS SEEM TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO THE PROGRESSION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MONDAY WITH THE DEPICTION OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ENTERING THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST STATES WITH A
WEAK RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE TRI STATE AREA BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AND WILL TAPER OFF BY MONDAY EVENING AS THE
FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY TUESDAY MORNING...BUT A SERIES OF SUBTLE
SHORTWAVES AND SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL BRING MORE DESTABILIZATION
AND CHANCES FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR EASTERN
COLORADO.  AS THE DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST...THE ENTIRE
TRI STATE AREA HAS A CHANCE TO RECEIVE SOME PRECIPITATION TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  AS THE SURFACE TROUGH SITS OVER THE REGION...A
SURFACE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL BE PRESENT AND CONTINUE TO BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.  WITH
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPECTED TO REBOUND INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...WHICH IS ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 555 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FOR KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN STEADILY DECREASING AS IT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ALSO THE PATH OF THE STORMS WERE GOING
TO TAKE THE RAINFALL SOUTH AND WEST OF THE SITE. STILL SOME STORMS
UPSTREAM FROM THE AREA. SO ONLY INCLUDED A VCTS THROUGH 16Z.
ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CLOSE TO THE SITE DURING
THE EVENING. SINCE IT IS THAT FAR OUT...CHOSE ONLY TO PUT VCTS
INTO THE TAF. WINDS LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AND SHIFTING THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD.

FOR KMCK...FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE AREA AND STRATUS IS ABOUT TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA. MVFR VISIBILITIES AND IFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH 16Z. AFTER 16Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
NEAR 06Z ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE SITE SO PUT
IN VCTS FOR THE LAST 6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND SHIFTING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BULLER



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