Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 281135
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
535 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 536 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

HAVE ISSUED AN UPDATE TO FORECAST TO CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE CWA AT THIS TIME AND WITH RIVERS
CONTINUING TO DROP FROM EARLIER EVENING HIGHS...HAVE DECIDED TO
DROP THE WATCH. STILL EXPECTING SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION TO FORM
BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS UPPER LOW TREKS EASTWARD. REST OF
FORECAST ON TRACK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

BROAD 500MB TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW OVER THE ROCKIES...COMBINING WITH
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA/CENTRAL KANSAS HAVE BEEN GIVING MANY LOCALES
IN THE FORECAST AREA NEAR FLOODING/FLOODING NUMBERS DUE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.

THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS HAS BEEN DECREASING OVER PAST
FEW HOURS THOUGH AS AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEMS HAVE BEEN SHIFTING SLOWLY
EAST AND NORTH. EXPECTING BULK OF ACTIVITY TO CLEAR CWA BY 12Z THIS
MORNING. DO EXPECT SCATTERED ACTIVITY THROUGH OUT THE DAY THOUGH AS
UPPER LOW WONT SHIFT EASTWARD UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY AND HAVE GONE
AHEAD TO ADD INCREASING POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO HIGHLIGHT LOW
MOVEMENT...COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING EFFECTS FOR POTENTIAL
INCREASED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

MODELS DO BEGIN TO LIFT UPPER SYSTEM NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND HAVE THUS PUT IN A
TAPERING OF POPS THRU THE OVER NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST W/ HIGH
PRESSURE FILLING THE WEATHER GAP OF THE EXITING UPPER LOW/TROUGH.

WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RECEIVED THUS FAR...HYDRO CONCERNS CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED AS SOME SPOTS EASILY OVER 1-2"...BUT AS PRECIPITATION
LIFTS NORTHWARD THRU 12Z...THREAT WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AND WILL
ADDRESS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT TOWARDS THAT TIME FRAME.

EXPECTING TEMPS TODAY TO BE AFFECTED BY CLD COVER/PRECIP...SO WILL
TREND NUMBERS CLOSE TO GUIDANCE...WHICH ARE A FEW BELOW NORMAL FOR
HIGHS AND ABOVE FOR LOWS.

WILL BE ADDING MORNING FOG TO THE FORECAST MIX THIS MORNING AS WELL
TO ACCT FOR INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

GOING INTO FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME CLDS/RAIN REMNANTS OVER EASTERN ZONES POSSIBLE
DUE TO LINGERING TROUGH...BUT OVERALL NICE DAY ON TAP FOR THE AREA.

GOING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ON INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...THE
TRI STATE REGION WILL SEE YET ANOTHER COUPLE ROUNDS OF RW/TRW AS TWO
SHORTWAVES WORK OVER RIDGE IN PLACE FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
NORTHERN TRACK DOES FAVOR HIGHEST POPS NORTH ESPECIALLY ON
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
NUMBERS BY A FEW DEGREES...BUT TRENDING SLOWLY DOWN TO BLW NORMAL
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE TWO SHORTWAVES MOVING THRU AREA.

AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL START
OUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON SUNDAY.  WHILE THERE WILL BE SYNOPTIC
SCALE LIFT OVER THE AREA AS WELL AS A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE
TROUGH...A DRY SLOT WILL BE OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA.  THIS
WILL LIMIT BETTER PRECIP. CHANCES TO THE EASTERN HALF TO THIRD OF
THE AREA WHERE THE 1000-500MB MOISTURE WILL BE.  IN ADDITION SEVERE
STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA WHERE THE
BETTER MOISTURE IS LOCATED.  WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA TUESDAY ONWARD. BEHIND THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MULTIPLE SMALLER
SCALE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOME
PATCHES OF PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA AFTER SUNDAY. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR TO STORM DEVELOPMENT SO PRECIP.
CHANCES WILL BE FAIRLY LOW AS A RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 536 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

MAINLY MVFR/IFR MIX THRU 14Z WITH FOG AND LOW CEILINGS AFFECTING
TAF SITES. LOOKING FOR CEILINGS TO RANGE FROM OVC008-015 AND
VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1-3SM AT TIMES IN FOG. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN200 BECOMING BKN050-060 WITH VCTS/VCSH.
WINDS VAR AT ONSET OF FORECAST...BECOMING WNW 5-15KTS WITH GUSTS
NEAR 25 KTS FOR GLD AROUND MIDDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JN


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