Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 171943
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
143 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

WEAK CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN EASTERN COLORADO ALONG
PALMER DIVIDE AND WEAK WIND CONVERGENT ZONE WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. INITIALLY HIGHER BASED CONVECTION
IN KIT CARSON COUNTY WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 30S SHOULD
EVENTUALLY REACH BETTER MOISTURE AS IT WORKS EAST WHERE DEWPOINTS
ARE IN THE LOW-MID 50S. HRRR RUNS ALL MORNING HAVE CONTINUED TO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAINLY SOUTH OF
I-70 IN KANSAS UNTIL EARLY EVENING. NAM HINTS AT THIS AS WELL.
BOTTOM LINE...HAVE INCLUDED LOW POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BUT FORCING
APPEARS WEAK AND SOME CINH REMAINS TO BE OVERCOME. OVERALL NOT
EXPECTING A BIG CONVECTIVE EVENT HERE.

WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL HOLD IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WITH CONTINUED
LIGHT SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...
EAST OF A TRENTON NEBRASKA TO HOXIE KANSAS LINE. GFS/NAM GUIDANCE
BOTH GIVE SUPPORT TO A SSE-NNW ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERS SOMEWHAT
BETWEEN MODELS. 500-1000 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE IS PRESENT TO
SUPPORT CONVECTION IF INHIBITION IS OVERCOME.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES SHIFTS EAST TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 90F GIVEN FORECAST 850
MB TEMPS 26-30C.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

GOING INTO THURSDAY MORNING THERE WILL BE SOME REMNANTS SHOWERS
AND FOG ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH PUSHING EAST OUT OF THE REGION.
UPPER RIDGE THEN SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY
CONTINUING THE WARM TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS RIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE REST OF THURSDAY AFTER PRECIP/CLDS CLR REGION
WILL BE DECENT SUMMER-LIKE DAY...AND TRANSLATE INTO A WARM
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS SFC RIDGE REMAINS MAIN WX FEATURE. FOR FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS DO SHOW THE REMNANTS OF ODILE PASSING
JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR NORTH. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RW/TRW TO
THE AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN EASTERN/SOUTHERN
ZONES CLOSEST TO ODILE REMNANTS...DUE TO ABUNDANT TROPICAL
MOISTURE IN PLACE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S INTO
THE MID 60S...WARMEST EAST.

ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
WITH RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN THE WEST
WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. UNCERTAINTY
IS RATHER HIGH TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED GIVEN DISCREPANCIES
WITHIN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. GFS TRANSITIONS TO AN OPEN WAVE AND
MOVES THE SYSTEM ALONG FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST
RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS. HAVE
MAINTAINED LOW POPS ON TUESDAY BUT THE TYPICAL LOW PREDICTABILITY
WITH THESE TYPE SYSTEMS THIS FAR OUT MEANS THAT ADJUSTMENTS WILL MAY
BE NEEDED. ANOTHER DIFFERENCE IS THAT ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
A COLD FRONT/SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY.
HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY DOWN CLOSER TO
THE CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST RUNS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/WARMTH LOOKS TO BE INSUFFICIENT FOR MEANINGFUL INSTABILITY
TOWARD TUESDAY SO KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT KGLD. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS. AT THIS TIME...THE PRECIP IS NOT
EXPECTED TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE TERMINAL AREA DUE TO LIMITED
COVERAGE.

MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S CONTINUES
ACROSS THE KMCK AREA. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND DENSE FOG
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KMCK AFTER AROUND 08Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MID-MORNING THURSDAY. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CONVECTION IS ALSO
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NC KANSAS INTO SW NEBRASKA. SOME
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS AS TO LOCATION AND IMPACT ON KMCK
TERMINAL WITH BETTER COVERAGE SEEN FURTHER EAST. CONVECTION WOULD
MOST LIKELY OCCUR IN THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME IF IT DOES DEVELOP NEAR
THE TERMINAL.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...JN/BRB
AVIATION...DLF



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