000
FXUS63 KGLD 111149
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
549 AM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014

A WIND ADVISORY WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO
THIS EVENING.

THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM CONCERN IS THE WIND TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF A TROUGH
THAT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY MID DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINING
STEADY THROUGH MID DAY AND DECREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
RISE THROUGH MID DAY AND COOL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. STRONG NORTH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WITH
REDUCED VISIBILITIES. THESE STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BY MID MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. IN ADDITION TO
THE WINDS...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...INITIALLY
AS ALL RAIN...THEN CHANGING OVER TO A RAIN SNOW MIX LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH THE EVENING WITH
PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING BY MIDNIGHT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN AT THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO
THE NORTHWEST. THURSDAY WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 60S WITH WEST TO
SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW AND WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH INTO THE AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A HIGH DEGREE OF VARIABILITY
WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF LONG WAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. GEFS PRECIP PROBABILITIES HAVE INCREASED QUITE
A BIT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT BASED ON OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS
AND SPAGHETTI PLOTS OF THE TIME PERIOD AT H5...CONFIDENCE STILL
FAIRLY LOW. FOR TEMPS...LARGE STANDARD DEVIATIONS MAKE ME HESITANT
TO PROMOTE ANY LARGE CHANGES FROM CONSENSUS FIELDS FOR THE TIME
BEING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 500 AM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014

THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION HAS ALREADY
PASSED THROUGH GLD AND MCK. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF AROUND 30 KTS AND GUSTS NEAR 45
KTS BETWEEN 16Z-00Z. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
WINDS. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 15 KTS AFTER 02Z. IN ADDITION
TO WINDS AND BLOWING DUST...LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 19Z-23Z
WITH A TRANSITION TO A RAIN AND SNOW MIX AND ALL SNOW AT MCK AS
PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES AFTER 23Z. SINCE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LESS THAN 50 PERCENT...HAVE LEFT IT OUT
AFTER 23Z. CONDITIONS WILL START OUT VFR THIS MORNING...BUT WILL
TRANSITION TO MVFR WITH LIGHT RAIN AND OCCASIONALLY IFR IN AREAS
OF BLOWING DUST DURING THE DAY. LOW CEILINGS AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN THROUGH ABOUT 06Z-08Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS AFTER THAT AS
SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT
     /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-
     042.

CO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR COZ090>092.

NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT
     /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...LOCKHART