000
FXUS63 KGLD 082125
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
225 PM MST SUN DEC 8 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST SUN DEC 8 2013

STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/PV ANOMALY IS MOVING THROUGH AT THIS TIME.
12Z SOUNDINGS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED A
SATURATED AIR MASS FROM JUST BELOW 700 MB TO THE SURFACE. THIS LAYER
ALSO COINCIDED WITH THE DENDRITIC ZONE. MODERATE TO STRONG MESOSCALE
TO SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ALONG WITH THETA-E LAPSE RATES NOT TOO FAR
ABOVE ZERO WAS MOVING ACROSS AND ACTING ON THIS AIR MASS. WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO ISOLATED POCKETS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WERE THE RESULTS
OF ALL THIS. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WAS NEAR THE NEBRASKA AND KANSAS
BORDER.

THIS SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MANY
LOCATIONS SHOULD HAVE RECEIVED 3 TO 5 INCHES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
FORCING SHUTS DOWN VERY QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SO AFTER THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ENDS AT 5 PM MST/6 PM
CST...FLURRIES WILL HANG ON A LITTLE LONGER INTO THE EVENING. SO
AFTER THAT...SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KICK IN RATHER QUICKLY. SO EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR TO MAYBE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY LATE TONIGHT PER PLAN
RH/FORECAST SOUNDINGS. CURRENT SATELLITE LOOKS TO CONFIRM THAT. SO
THAT PLUS LIGHTER WINDS...VERY LOW DEW POINTS AND THE FRESH SNOW
COVER WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA.

AS STATED ABOVE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...AND SHOULD BE IN THE 5 TO 10
MPH RANGE. SO EVEN THOUGH THE WINDS WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG...THOSE
WINDS COMBINED WITH THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BRING VERY COLD
WIND CHILL READINGS TO MOST OF THE AREA. SO ENDED UP ISSUING A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY FROM EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING FOR
ALL THE AREA EXCEPT WICHITA AND GOVE COUNTIES. LOCATIONS IN FAR WESTERN
CHEYENNE AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES COULD GET CLOSE TO WIND CHILL
WARNING CRITERIA.

SINCE MODELS DID NOT REALLY CATCH THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS SNOW...
BELIEVE THEIR FORECAST MAXES FOR MONDAY ARE NOT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT
THE SNOW COVER. COMBINED WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER GOING
ACROSS DURING THE DAY AND A SURFACE RIDGE ALSO MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE DAY...NOT A LOT OF MIXING OR WARMING WILL BE ABLE TO
TAKE PLACE. SO REDUCED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY. IT MAY BE
POSSIBLE THAT I MIGHT STILL BE A LITTLE WARM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST SUN DEC 8 2013

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AS THE
850MB WIND FIELD BRINGS IN WARMER AIR.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BUT THE DRY ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PREVENT ANYTHING
BUT A FEW CLOUDS FROM DEVELOPING WITH ITS PASSAGE.  TUESDAY NIGHT AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA.  WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
WHERE THE LIFT WILL BE BEST...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIP.
DEVELOPING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  THE LOW LEVELS UP TO 750MB
SATURATE OR NEAR SATURATION BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT SUBSIDENCE WILL
MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT PREVENTING ANY PRECIP. FROM DEVELOPING.



WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY A FEW UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.  HOWEVER WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY DUE TO A
DRY ENVIRONMENT OVER THE AREA UNTIL THE WEEKEND.  THE STRONGEST TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.  HOWEVER THE MAJORITY OF
THE LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING
TREND...WITH HIGHS AND LOWS NEAR NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1045 AM MST SUN DEC 8 2013

IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT GLD AND
MCK. ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS WILL KEEP VISIBILITY HOVERING BETWEEN MVFR
AND IFR...WITH MUCH OF THE TIME REMAINING IFR. CEILINGS WILL LOWER
LATER THIS AFTERNOON PER UPSTREAM OBS AND SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE
TIME-HEIGHT CROSS-SECTIONS AS LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY
INCREASES. A MORE INTENSE BAND OF SNOW IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO AND AM EXPECTING IT TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND GROW IN
SIZE TO AFFECT BOTH SITES AS IT MOVES EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY LATER TONIGHT /AFTER 03-06Z/ WITH
SNOW MOVING OUT...VISIBILITY IMPROVING...AND LOW CEILINGS MOVING
OUT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY RETURN TOMORROW...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT BOTH SITES TOMORROW. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING WITH NEAR-ZERO LOWS TONIGHT.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR KSZ001>004-013>016.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM MST /7 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 10
     AM MST /11 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027-028-
     041.

CO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM MST MONDAY
     FOR COZ090>092.

NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR NEZ079>081.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM MST /7 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 10
     AM MST /11 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JJM