Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGLD 041949
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
149 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

QUIET PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
DURING FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SURFACE HIGH NOW RIDGING FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. MAIN WEATHER CHANGE AS A RESULT WILL BE A STRENGTHENING
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH TOMORROW WITH SOUTH WINDS
INCREASING TO 10-20 KTS BY MIDDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM
ANOTHER 3-4 C.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

ACTIVE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA APPEARS TO BE DURING THE
WEEKEND. EXPECT THE WARMEST CONDITIONS AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED...FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES AS THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM ADVANCES.

ON SATURDAY...RIDGING MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION AND SOME MOISTURE FILTERS IN AS A
SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE LOW. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER
EASTERN COLORADO WITH A DRYLINE NEAR THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER.
COULD SEE CAPE VALUES NEAR 1500 J/KG ALONG WITH INCREASING SHEAR.
MOISTURE WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR...YET THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THE POSITION OF THE LOW AS WELL AS BOUNDARY AND DRYLINE
PLACEMENT/TIMING IN THE UPCOMING DAYS.

SEVERE POTENTIAL HAS TO BE MONITORED FOR SUNDAY AS WELL. THE
SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE HOW LONG THE SEVERE THREAT
WILL EXIST IN THE REGION SINCE ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD
QUICKLY PUSH EAST OF THE AREA. MOISTURE DOES APPEAR TO IMPROVE ON
SUNDAY AND GUIDANCE CURRENTLY INDICATES SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN THE EASTERN ZONES. AT ANY RATE...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES PERSIST ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW ADVANCES TOWARDS THE
PLAINS.

DECREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES ITS WAY
ALONG TO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S ON SATURDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGHS
IN THE 60S TO MID 70S THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S AND LOW 50S ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING WITH A TREND TOWARD STRENGTHENING S-SE FLOW
DURING THE DAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...DLF


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.