Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 082320
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
420 PM MST Thu Dec 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 244 PM MST Thu Dec 8 2016

Main forecast concerns will be temperatures and wind chills.
Northwest flow aloft is over the area as arctic high pressure has
settled over the area at the surface.

For tonight...keys to the forecast is how fast the winds can shift
back to the south and increase and how much/fast will the cloud
cover increase. Left front quadrant of the jet moves from southwest
to northeast across the area. Models do increase cloud cover at mid
and higher levels this afternoon into the night, although they look
a little fast in bringing it in.

Some hires model output is increasing boundary layer moisture. This
may be in response to the very cold temperatures. Sometimes the
models think there are clouds there when they are not. However there
are low clouds to our south. So not an easy temperature forecast.
Current temperatures are running colder than what the model output
expected. There will be a period the evening and probably beyond
midnight in the eastern counties where there will be little to no
wind.

The latest Rap seems to be catching the current temperature and wind
field well and is colder, especially in our northeast counties, than
any other output. If more clouds come in than expected then we will
not drop as much. At this time I am trending toward the colder
guidance. In regards to the wind chills, wind chills late this
evening into the overnight stay just above wind chill advisory
CRITERIA. My confidence level is not there as I think by the time
we get the winds the temperatures will start going up.

For Friday...Per the discussion above on wind chills, there looks to
be a brief period of wind chills getting to -13 to -14. Will brief
the overnight shift on this. There looks to be some kind of cloud
cover lingering around into the afternoon, especially in the
northeast half. That combined with the cold start and little mixing
with unfavorable surface winds will make for another cold day,
especially in the eastern portion of the area. Right now it looks
like the far western portion of my area will be the warmest and the
northeast portion the coldest. In the middle of those areas will be
interesting and closer to the Colorado border it could go either
way. So overall tended to go near to slightly below most of the
guidance.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 152 PM MST Thu Dec 8 2016

Dry conditions start off the long term period, followed by a couple
opportunities for some light snow for mainly the northern portion of
the forecast area.

Northwesterly flow aloft prevails at the start of the period. The
arctic air mass impacting the High Plains slides further east and
warmer air surges north into the region Friday night. This allows
for a decent warm up on Saturday ahead of our next shortwave.

A disturbance heads towards the area late Saturday as broad, upper
zonal flow develops. This shortwave generates chances for light snow
Saturday night into Sunday morning north of Interstate 70. Moisture
continues to look limited, so still am not anticipating much as this
wave moves through. Drier weather returns Sunday night, with
slightly warmer temperatures on Monday ahead of the next front
moving in.

A cold front traverses the High Plains Monday night and arctic air
spreads into the region, dropping temperatures once again through
midweek. Will need to monitor how cold the area will get as model
discrepancies are better resolved. There is another chance for light
snow Tuesday night, generally for the northern zones, with little
accumulation at this time. A trough moves through the westerly flow
into the western CONUS during the latter half of the week.

The warmest temperatures of the period will be on Saturday, with
highs in the 40s to low 50s, followed by a drop into the 30s and 40s
on Sunday and Monday. Tuesday through Thursday will be colder, with
highs currently forecast in the 20s and 30s. Lows should stay in the
teens to low 20s Friday through Monday nights before we see a dip
back down to around 10 degrees Tuesday night and Wednesday night
when the arctic air sets in.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 420 PM MST Thu Dec 8 2016

Conditions...VFR with SCT-BKN100-250 in a decreasing trend thru
the period.

Precip/Wx....None expected.

Winds........For KGLD...SE around 5 kts thru 05z Friday then S
around 10 kts. For KMCK...LGT/VRB thru 07z Friday...becoming ESE
around 10kts thru 17z Friday then SE around 10kts.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...JN



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