Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 102112
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
212 PM MST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM MST WED FEB 10 2016

WARM TEMPERATURES HAVE EATEN INTO THE SNOWPACK TODAY. TEMPERATURES
TODAY ARE WARMER ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S
IN THE FAR SOUTH WHERE THERE IS NO SNOW TO LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S
OVER MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA. THIS HAS ALLOWED DEWPOINTS TO
STAY RATHER HIGH DESPITE WESTERLY WINDS. MORE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
A FRONT BACKDOORING INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

THIS IS WILL CREATE A LIGHT UPSLOPE TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
FIELD...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS. LATEST
GUIDANCE AND PROBABILITIES ARE NOW NOT ONLY INDICATING A RATHER
HIGH CHANCE OF STRATUS BUT ALSO FOG IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA.
AS A RESULT HAVE ADDED PATCHY TO AREAS OF FREEZING FOG FROM THE
MIDDLE OF TONIGHT INTO MID MORNING TOMORROW.

HAVE TEMPERATURES COOLER PER THE LATEST GUIDANCE/OVERNIGHT
FORECASTER REASONING. DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE STRATUS AND FOG
BURN OFF...THAT COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT TOMORROWS MAXES
ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THOSE
TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED SOME MORE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

GFS SHOWS THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
MORNING WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE SHALLOW COLD AIR BACKING
INTO THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A LARGE EAST TO WEST TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ON SATURDAY WITH EASTERN AREAS STUCK IN THE 30S WHILE
PARTS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO COULD GET CLOSE TO 60. DRY COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING WITH BRIEF GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WILL WARM UP WITH RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

AT THIS TIME VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. FROM
NOW UNTIL NEAR 00Z...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS INTO THE 19 TO 23 KNOT RANGE ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH SITES.
LATER TONIGHT A FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE EAST AND GET CLOSE TO
KMCK. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME STRATUS MAY AFFECT THE SITE. AT
THIS TIME CHOSE TO ONLY HAVE A SCATTERED DECK IN FOR KMCK. THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BULLER


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