000
FXUS63 KGLD 040446
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
946 PM MST MON MAR 3 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM MST MON MAR 3 2014

A RETURN TO MUCH WARMER TEMPS THIS WEEK. LARGE-SCALE PATTERN TO
BEGIN THE WEEK IS FAIRLY QUIET WITH A ZONAL TO SUBTLE LONGWAVE RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS TO A LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE
EAST...PLACING OUR REGION IN A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS. BELOW THIS...WILL SEE WARM AIR ADVECTION OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY BEFORE BACKING TO THE WEST
TOMORROW. LATE TOMORROW A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.

TODAY...MORNING BEGAN QUITE BREEZY...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30 MPH
AT A FEW SITES. CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY DISSIPATE. MODEL
OUTPUT FROM GFS AND NAM ESPECIALLY GENERALLY NOT USEFUL FOR NEAR
SURFACE PARAMETERS DUE TO SNOW DEPTH BEING INITIALIZED MUCH TOO
DEEP ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS. RAP DOES NOT
SEEM TO BE SUFFERING FROM THIS...SO LEANED TOWARDS RAP/ECMWF FOR
TEMPS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WHERE THERE IS SNOW AND SOME CLOUD COVER
ACROSS GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES TEMPS HAVE BEEN MUCH
COLDER...BUT ELSEWHERE A PLEASANT AND WARMER DAY AFTER A BITTER
COLD WEEKEND.

TONIGHT...CLEARING SKIES AND 850MB TEMPS CONTINUING TO RISE WILL
MAKE FOR NEAR-NORMAL TEMPS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE
SOUTH...LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO FORM IN A FEW SPOTS.
HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND IN PARTS OF
ADJACENT COLORADO/KANSAS COUNTIES GENERALLY BASED OFF OF THE RAP
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TRENDS. THOUGH BELIEVE SOME OF THE FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN SREF/NAM ARE DUE TO SNOW FIELD...WITH RAP ALSO
HINTING AT A GOOD LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LAYER FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH AT
LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG. MUCH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WINDS...AND IF
WINDS REMAIN UP AROUND 5-10 MPH OVERNIGHT MIGHT NOT SEE ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT WHATSOEVER.

WEDNESDAY...SUNNY AND WARM FOR THE MOST PART. HIGHS APPROACHING 60
IN MOST SPOTS AS 850MB TEMPS REACH AROUND 10C...WITH ECMWF AND GEM
GOING EVEN WARMER. INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON WITH
WINDS BECOMING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MST MON MAR 3 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY MORNING...QUICK MOVING POSITIVELY TILTED
SHORTWAVE  TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
EVENING. QUICKER END OF GUIDANCE ACTUALLY BRINGS FRONT IN A
LITTLE EARLIER (POSSIBLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON)...THOUGH THIS WILL
HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER DURING THESE PERIODS. CAA IS
FAIRLY WEAK BEHIND THIS FRONT AND BEST COOLING MODELS ARE SHOWING
IS WITH PRECIP BAND (LIKELY DUE TO EVAPORATIVE PROCESSES). CURRENT
MODELS SEEM TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON COUPLED JET STRUCTURE
(AND ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT) MOVING OVER OUR CWA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SUBSIDENCE QUICKLY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
WED MORNING. MODEL QPF FIELDS GENERALLY MATCH ON TIMING ON AREA OF
PRECIP MOVING OVER OUR CWA DURING THIS PERIOD...SO I TRENDED POPS
UP DURING THE LATE NIGHT PERIOD...AND QUICKLY ENDED POPS DURING
THE WED MORNING PERIOD.

REGARDING PRECIP TYPE...VERY LITTLE E-SE MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF
MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE LOW LEVELS...SO IM NOT SEEING A LOT
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE. A FEW SOUNDINGS TRY
TO SHOW LOW LEVEL SATURATION IN OUR SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER WITH VERY
BRIEF WINDOW BEFORE NW FLOW OVERTAKES REGION OR MAIN AREA OF
PRECIP MOVES IN IM NOT SEEING THIS BEING WORTH A MENTION. WHILE
INITIALLY THERE IS A WARM LAYER...SATURATION ABOVE THIS LAYER WILL
OCCUR WHEN MAIN PRECIP AREA MOVES IN AND TEMPERATURE (AND BY THAT
POINT WEAK CAA/EVAPORATIVE PROCESSES HAVE REMOVED THIS WARM LAYER
FROM THE EQUATION)...SO SLEET IS UNLIKELY. PROFILES GENERALLY SHOW
CLEAN RAIN-SNOW TRANSITION WITH MINIMAL CAA IN THE LOW
LEVELS...SO I WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED FZDZ/FZRA AND LEFT TYPE AS
RAIN/SNOW.

DUE TO RELIANCE ON EVAPORATIVE PROCESSES FOR RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION
AMOUNTS ARE TRICKY. CURRENT GUIDANCE AND FORECAST TIMING GENERALLY
SHOWS SNOW AMOUNTS AROUND ONE INCH OR LESS POSSIBLE (FAIRLY WET
AND SLUSHY).

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-THURSDAY NIGHT...WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH REGION
AND SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT ALLOWING FOR QUICK RETURN OF
MILD TEMPS/DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WARM UP CONSIDERABLY
THURSDAY WITH MEX/ECE SHOWING HIGHS AROUND 70F. H85 TEMPS
GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE OF MID 60S-LOW 70S (DEPENDING ON WHICH END OF
GUIDANCE YOU CHOOSE) USING STANDARD BIAS. I TRENDED TEMPS UP
ACROSS THE CWA TO UPPER 60S THURSDAY...AND COULD STILL BE A LITTLE
LOW COMPARED TO WARMER END OF GUIDANCE.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...NEXT QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE PLAINS DURING THESE PERIODS BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES AND
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS BACK TO OUR CWA. STILL A LOT OF SPREAD IN
EVOLUTION OF THIS PATTERN...HOWEVER CARRYING SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
POPS SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON OVERALL TRENDS/CONSENSUS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...WHILE THERE IS RUN-RUN MODEL SPREAD DURING THESE
PERIODS...GENERAL CONSENSUS SHOWS SHORTWAVE RIDGING (OF SOME FLAVOR)
AND DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPS TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 929 PM MST MON MAR 3 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD AND
THEN MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER BOTH TERMINALS TOWARDS THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...WITH WIND SPEEDS UNDER 10 KTS. KGLD HAD WIND SPEEDS A
BIT HIGHER THE PREVIOUS FEW HOURS...BUT SPEEDS ARE NOW AT 5 KTS.
WINDS ARE A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE TONIGHT CONSIDERING
NOTHING UPSTREAM SEEMED TO CAUSE THE SPEEDS THAT KGLD HAD THE LAST
FEW HOURS. ALSO...KLBF AND KOGA CURRENTLY HAVE CALM WINDS AND FOG
DEVELOPING. DEPENDING ON WHETHER THIS TRANSFERS TO KMCK...HAVE
DECIDED TO KEEP KMCK VFR BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF MVFR
CONDITIONS SNUCK IN THERE FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT. CURRENTLY DO
NOT HAVE THE TIMING DOWN ON WHEN THAT MIGHT HAPPEN AND MODEL
GUIDANCE AND SOUNDINGS ARE NOT VERY HELPFUL AT THE PRESENT TIME SO
LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD SEEMED
FAIRLY REASONABLE TO GET A HANDLE ON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH TOMORROW BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT AND WILL BECOME
GUSTY...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS...TOWARDS EVENING. AROUND
03Z LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES INTO BOTH TAF SITES...WITH FOG
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. REDUCED VISIBILITY TO 5SM WITH FAIRLY LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS. GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE ALONG WITH SOUNDINGS SEEMED
TO ALL AGREE WITH THIS SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN THIS EVENT
HAPPENING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...ALW