200
FXUS63 KGLD 271106
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
506 AM MDT Fri Jun 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of potentially severe storms are expected Friday
  afternoon into the evening hours.

- Daily chances for storms are forecast into early next week.

- Seasonable temperatures are forecast through early next week
  with highs in the 80s and 90s, while lows are generally in
  the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 128 AM MDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Current observations show a few showers moving through Eastern
Colorado with a small area of mid-level convergence. These showers
should dissipate as they reach the area, but increase cloud cover
through much of the remainder of the early morning hours. Winds
should remain around 5 to 10 mph from the south with temperatures
lowering into the 60s.

For the daytime hours, the area is forecast to remain in a fairly
similar pattern to yesterday with mostly zonal flow over the area.
With this, mostly clear skies are forecast, short of some lingering
high level cirrus from moisture streaming over the Rockies. Highs
are forecast to be a bit warmer in the mid 90s as warm air continues
to advect into the area.

Late into the afternoon and during the evening hours, another area
of low pressure is forecast to develop over the area ahead of an
advancing 850-500mb trough. If the low can deepen enough to make
some convergence zones in the area, then storms may be able to fire
up generally along and north of I-70 across the area between the 2-
7pm CT time window. Otherwise, the advancing trough will allow
storms to develop over the higher terrain in Eastern Colorado and
move east into the area between 5-10pm MT. CAPE is forecast to be
around 1000-2000 J/kg with lapse rates around 9 C/KM which could
support some heavy rain and hail potentially up to 1.5". With
effective shear generally 30 kts or less, storms will likely either
congeal or rise and fall along outflow boundaries as they move east.
As the evening goes on, the threat for severe storms would lower as
instability lowers. That being said, storms could continue past
midnight as outflows move across the area in an environment that is
still relatively moist and with MUCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg.

Tonight, showers and storms should end by 3am MT as the upper trough
becomes more diffuse and the environment becomes a bit more stable.
Temperatures could stay in the 70s for most of the night until the
cloud cover clears, with low temperatures then in the 60s.

Winds through all of today are forecast to be from the south (in the
absence of storms) at 10 to 15 mph. Some gusts could reach up to 35
mph during the late morning and afternoon hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 127 PM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Although the shortwave upper level ridge will be the dominant
feature across the forecast area on Friday, there are
indications that weak low pressure area could form on the lee
side of the Rockies tomorrow. This low will induce the
development of a dry line, and this dry line could serve as a
focusing mechanism for some isolated convective activity in
the late afternoon hours. A review of model soundings for Friday
afternoon and evening indicate favorable conditions for both
large hail and damaging wind gusts from any severe storms that
form. However, the overall severe threat will remain limited as
available moisture is somewhat limited. Temperatures will be
warmer tomorrow due to the influence of the 500mb ridge axis
with readings climbing into the mid 90s. Any storms will quickly
dissipate after sunset, and a dry and clear night is anticipated
for Friday night. Lows will once again cool toward more normal
levels in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

Saturday will be the hottest and driest day of the long term
forecast as the upper level ridge is in full control of the
area. Highs will climb into the upper 90s, a good 10 degrees
above average, as deep layer subsidence takes hold. Some low PoP
is in the forecast for the northern third of the forecast area,
but confidence is lower than average of seeing any rain actually
develop as the greatest forcing will remain well north of the
area in the Dakotas. Saturday night will once again see clear
skies and near average low.

A much more amplified upper level pattern will begin to develop
on Sunday and will remain in place through next Thursday. The
end result will be a strong longwave ridge axis across the
western third of the CONUS and a broad longwave trough east of
the Mississippi River. This will place the region beneath a
persistent and deep northwest flow regime throughout the
entirety of next week. A series of weak upper level impulses
rounding the top of the ridge will slide through the area next
week, and this impulses will provide enough upper level forcing
to promote some scattered convective activity each day. The
convection will be very diurnal in nature and will tend to fire
up along the dry line over eastern Colorado in the late
afternoon and early evening hours. The storms will then spread
east through the evening hours before they dissipate closer to
midnight. Although the threat of severe storms is low, there
could be a few strong to severe storms each day with hail and
gusty winds being the main threat.  Temperatures will be
slightly cooler as the northwest flow pattern takes hold with
readings closer to average in the mid to upper 80s. Lows will be
near to slightly warmer than average with readings ranging from
the low to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 502 AM MDT Fri Jun 27 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period for
both TAF sites. Winds will generally be favoring the south-
southeast once the sun comes up. KGLD does have a 20-35% chance
at seeing storms moving through the area around 3-5Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...Grigsby
AVIATION...CA