000
FXUS63 KGLD 080930
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
230 AM MST SUN DEC 8 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST SUN DEC 8 2013

TODAY-TONIGHT...BASE OF UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER UTAH AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA LATE THIS
MORNING EXITING THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST BY DARK. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH BUT
THIS IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. SATURATED
AIRMASS AROUND/BELOW 850MB WITH SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE FAVORABLE
PORTION OF THE DENDRITIC LAYER EARLY THIS MORNING PRODUCING SOME
FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THIS MORNING BEFORE
MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE ALOFT AND DYNAMICS FROM APPROACHING TROUGH
MOVE IN PRODUCING MORE OF A LIGHT SNOW VS FLURRIES. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS UPPER
WAVE MOVES BY. DRY FORECAST EXPECTED TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
10-15 GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WITH 15-20 TO THE
SOUTH. LOWS TONIGHT COLDEST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE WITH
ZERO TO 10-15 BELOW ZERO...COLDEST IN WESTERN KIT CARSON COUNTY. TO
THE SOUTH THINK THAT PROXIMITY TO APPROACHING CIRRUS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MAY BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM TANKING BELOW
ZERO. WIND CHILL ADVISORY PROBABLY NEEDED FROM KIT CARSON TO
GOODLAND AND OBERLIN NORTH AS VALUES FALL INTO THE -15F TO -20F
RANGE.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY
BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS MID MORNING. REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD GENERALLY CLEAR. HIGH TEMPERATURES MID TEENS TO AROUND 20 IN
FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW 20S EAST OF THE BORDER. LOWS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW ZERO TO A FEW ABOVE IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH
AROUND 5 ABOVE ELSEWHERE. THINK THAT SUSTAINED WEST WINDS AROUND 10
MPH SHOULD KEEP THINGS MIXED ENOUGH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD BELOW ZERO
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...WINDS MAY LIGHTEN UP JUST ENOUGH TOWARD
SUNRISE TO ALLOW PERHAPS SLIGHTLY COLDER THEN ADVERTISED READINGS.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS LATE IN
THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH.
CURRENTLY THINKING NO PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP. PAST 5 DAYS OF 850
TEMPERATURES AND BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS ALL FAVORING HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR MANY WITH POSSIBLY A FEW UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE EAST AND NEAR THE REPUBLICAN RIVER VALLEY. CANT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT A FEW LOW 40 DEGREE READINGS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY ZERO
TO 10 ABOVE...COLDEST IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MST SUN DEC 8 2013

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE
FAIRLY ACTIVE. HOWEVER...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
THERE ARE A COUPLE FRONTS THAT ARE ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH...ONE
ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND ONE FRIDAY. THERE IS A NON-ZERO
CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY BUT OTHER THAN THAT...DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY.
MORE DETAILS ARE PROVIDED BELOW ON THESE SYSTEMS.

AS PREVIOUSLY STATED IN THE ABOVE PARAGRAPH...THE FIRST FRONT OF
CONCERN SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY. THE
FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT SLIDES
SOUTHEAST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BEHIND THE
FRONT...A 1038 TO 1043 MB SURFACE HIGH PROGRESSES SOUTH FROM CANADA
INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WOULD INDICATE ANOTHER COLD...BELOW NORMAL DAY
FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. THERE IS A VERY SLIM
CHANCE THAT THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY. MOST
MODELS INDICATE THIS PRECIPITATION STAYS TO THE NORTH. A GLANCE AT
MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGESTS A LAYER OF DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH WILL
CAUSE ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS ALOFT TO EVAPORATE BEFORE
REACHING THE SURFACE. HAVE KEPT POPS SILENT FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE COLD SURFACE HIGH WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN ON THURSDAY WITH WARMER WEATHER
ANTICIPATED UNDER A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY MAY APPROACH NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...REACHING THE
LOW TO POSSIBLY MID 40S.

MODELS DISAGREE ON THE TIMING FOR THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE EUROPEAN
MODEL HAS THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHILE THE
GFS MODEL RESTRICTS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TO LATE FRIDAY...POSSIBLY
FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY LACKS
SOME CONFIDENCE. HAVE GONE WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY
DUE TO QUESTIONS ON FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING. IN ADDITION TO THE
FRONT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THIS TIME...THE WEATHER
SYSTEM SHOULD BE TOO FAR SOUTH TO BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE
TRI-STATE AREA. THIS FRONT MAY ONLY AMOUNT TO A COOLER DAY
SATURDAY...OR FRIDAY TOO IF THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS RIGHT...BEFORE
WARMER...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARRIVE SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST SUN DEC 8 2013

KGLD...MVFR AND IFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH 22Z OR SO BEFORE
IMPROVING TO VFR AS LEVEL MOISTURE MOISTURE SOURCE RESPONSIBLE
MOVES EAST OF THE TERMINAL. LIGHT SNOW AND/OR FLURRIES EXPECTED
THROUGH 22Z AS WELL. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE
WILL DECREASE AND BACK TO THE EAST THEN NORTHEAST BEFORE A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AROUND 18Z SHIFTING THEM TO A NORTHWEST DIRECTION AT
10-15KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. BY SUNSET NORTHWEST WINDS OF
5-10KTS EXPECTED.

KMCK...MVFR AND IFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z OR SO BEFORE
IMPROVING TO VFR. LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. BY 22Z PRECIP SHOULD BE DONE WITH. EAST
WINDS AROUND 10KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE BY
17Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 20Z. AROUND 21Z FRONT MOVES THROUGH
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AT 10KTS OR SO FOR A FEW HOURS.
DURING THE TONIGHT PERIOD NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 7KTS EXPECTED.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...99