Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 210809
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
209 AM MDT Sun May 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 142 PM MDT Sat May 20 2017

Across the Tri State region this afternoon...much of the area
remains under partly sunny conditions as cloud cover from exiting
low continues a slow trudge east northeast. The current veil of
clouds still has kept temps well in check with 40s continuing for
most locales...and only a few spots have cracked the 50F mark thus
far.

Local radar still showing light rain showers over portions of the
area...mostly confined now to NE portions of the region...but
coverage continues to decrease and is in tandem with lifting cloud
shield. Will keep mention of light showers for remainder of the
afternoon as a result.

Going into tonight...trend for the CWA for the period is for
clearing with decreasing winds as high pressure builds over the
area...sliding east towards morning. With locales seeing clearing
tonight...and the approach of surface ridging and slackening
winds...do expect temps to drop into the upper 30s for overnight
lows. There could be a few spot locales near 36F...and have
mentioned patchy frost. The overall coverage is less than 50% only
lasting a couple hours...so have decided NOT to go with a Frost
Advisory.

For Sunday...the chance for more precipitation returns for the day
as an inverted surface trough shifts from the desert SW into the
Southern Plains. with high pressure east of the region...a SSE
surface flow works into the area...especially for SW zones. This
area will be the focus for any thunderstorm activity. Minimal
instability for the area(Kit Carson/Greeley/Wichita) will keep
strong/severe storms down. Enough moisture works up along the west
side of the front to expand shower potential into central areas.
Looking for daytime highs to range from the upper 60s to low
70s...warmest in the southeast.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 209 AM MDT Sun May 21 2017

Dry weather starts off the extended period on Wednesday, with a
large upper trough sliding east of the region and an upper ridge
moving in overhead. The ridge progresses passed the area on
Thursday.

Showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast each afternoon and
evening Thursday through Saturday. On Thursday, a disturbance moves
through westerly flow aloft, generating a slight chance of
precipitation. There looks to be a better chance on Friday and
Saturday when a cold front approaches the High Plains and multiple
disturbances rotate around the southern periphery of a slow moving
upper closed low in Canada.

Temperatures warm from the low/mid 70s on Wednesday to the upper
70s/low 80s for Thursday and Friday. A cold front drops highs to the
70s on Saturday. Low temperatures range from the mid 40s to upper
50s during the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1117 PM MDT Sat May 20 2017

Patchy fog may develop overnight with radiational cooling due to
clear skies, light winds and saturated near-surface conditions.
There are some clouds moving in from Colorado which could arrive
soon enough to limit the cooling. Otherwise, VFR expected at both
KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. May see some widely
scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and
early evening associated with a weak shortwave trough in the
northwest flow aloft.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...024



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