Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 271823
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1223 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

MESSY SITUATION WITH MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BENEATH LARGE
UPPER LOW OVER NW COLORADO WHICH WILL SEND A SERIES OF IMPULSES
NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA. AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THIN OUT THIS
AFTERNOON...SFC HEATING WILL GENERATE POCKETS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH TSRA DEVELOPING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WV SATELLITE
SHOWS THE FIRST UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING INTO EASTERN
COLORADO AT THE MOMENT WHICH WILL ENHANCE PRECIP CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
A FEW STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE WITH MAINLY A LARGE HAIL THREAT.

A SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL GENERATE A
SECOND AREA OF TSRA WHICH WILL REACH EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN
KANSAS THIS EVENING...CONTINUING TONIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
AGAIN THIS EVENING IN WESTERN COUNTIES WITH THE SECOND ROUND OF
STORMS WHICH WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT
OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

THURSDAY MORNING THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING STORMS OVER NORTON AND
GRAHAM COUNTIES AHEAD OF THE EXITING SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  DURING THE
AFTERNOON THE TROUGH AXIS OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS
BEEN SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE AREA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WEST HALF
OF THE AREA.  STORMS SHOULD FIRE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH
COVERAGE SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY.  CURRENTLY
THE FORCING LOOKS FAIRLY BROAD SO DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHERE
EXACTLY STORMS WILL FIRE.  GENERALLY THE STRONGER FORCING LOOKS TO
BE OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA.

MEANWHILE 0-1KM MIXED LAYER CAPE WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AXIS IN THE AFTERNOON TO 1500-2000J/KG.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
AROUND 30KTS ALLOWING FOR SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP.  AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES DEEP LAYER SHEAR DECLINES.  CURRENTLY LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE EAST OF HWY 27.
STORM MOTIONS WILL BE FAIRLY SLOW AT AROUND 10MPH WHICH WILL FAVOR
HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCTION.

THURSDAY NIGHT TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE
AREA.  ONE MODEL IS SUGGESTING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CLOSE OFF
OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA WHICH WILL SLOW THE LOW DOWN AND
ALLOW FOR WRAP AROUND RAINFALL. THIS MAY LEAD TO PROLONGED LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAINFALL THROUGH THE NIGHT.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING STORMS OVER
THE EAST 1/3 AS THE CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.  THE
RAINFALL SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY LATE EVENING.

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN LATEST RUNS OF
GFS/ECMWF...BUT CWA DOES START THE WEEKEND WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION...SHIFTING EASTWARD THRU THE DAY. LEE-SIDE TROUGH
DOES SET UP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES OVER THE
WEEKEND...SHIFTING EAST INTO KANSAS INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY. GFS BRINGS
MORE ZONAL PATTERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE ECMWF SHOWS
MORE DIGGING OF TROUGH OVER NORTHERN ROCKIES. OVERALL...THE TRI
STATE REGION WILL SEE TRW/RW MAINLY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO POTENTIAL OF WK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH MID
LEVEL FLOW. WITH DIFFERENCES IN GFS/ECMWF...BEST CHANCES MONDAY
NIGHT INTO NEXT TUESDAY MORNING. REST OF TIME...SL CHANCE FOR TRW/RW
OVER THE FRONT RANGE...WITH AREAL COVERAGE DEPENDENT ON LEE-SIDE
TROUGH SHIFTING EAST INTO THE PLAINS. POTENTIAL FOR FRONT TO
DEVELOP/STALL OVER NC KANSAS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AS MODELS SHOW TROUGH
BECOMING CLOSED OFF IN SW KANSAS. DESPITE THE CHANCE FOR INCREASED
CLOUDINESS AS FORECAST PROGRESSES...TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH HIGHS/LOWS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...GIVING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 55-60F RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

LARGE SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST COLORADO WILL IMPACT
BOTH TAF SITES WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES AND SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A SURFACE LOW
WILL ULTIMATELY FORM OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO THIS EVENING AND MOVE
INTO WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT. CEILINGS WILL BE FL030-040 THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING OVERNIGHT TO
IFR AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER. TSRA WILL BE HIT AND MISS VARIETY
FROM 18Z-22Z WITH BEST CHANCES AFTER 02Z AT KGLD AND AFTER 22Z AT
KMCK.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...JN/JTL
AVIATION...DLF


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