000
FXUS63 KGLD 250926
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
226 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

UPPER JET CORE REMAINS OVER THE AREA TODAY BUT WITH MIXING HEIGHTS
ONLY FORECAST UP TO 800MB EXPECTING A FEW GUSTS IN THE 30-40KT
RANGE BETWEEN MID MORNING AND MID AFTERNOON BUT THEN DIMINISHING
BY LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL SEE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILD OVER THE AREA
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ON BOTH DAYS WILL POTENTIALLY REACH THE 70S...WITH
MID TO UPPER 70S POSSIBLE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 ON TUESDAY WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH. RECORD HIGHS ARE
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S BOTH DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD RECORDS WILL
BE BROKEN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS MODELS AND
FORECAST GUIDANCE PERSIST IN A BATTLE ON WHICH SOLUTION WINS...A
STRONG EASTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH OR A SOUTHWEST CUTOFF LOW.
OVERALL...FORECAST LEANED TOWARDS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH
WINNING AS SHOWN BY THE EUROPEAN MODEL. UNFORTUNATELY...EVEN THIS
HAS SOME DRAWBACKS...ESPECIALLY WITH A TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES THE FIRST
AND PROBABLY ONLY CHANCE COMES FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME RETURNS A MORE MOIST AIRMASS. IN ADDITION...THERE
MAY BE SOME WEAK LIFT PROVIDED BY POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND A NORTHWEST FLOW STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
UNFORTUNATELY...MODELS TEND TO OVERPLAY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITHIN
THESE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIMES WHEN LITTLE FORCING IS INVOLVED.
THEREFORE...DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ABOUT OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
ANOTHER THORN IN THE SIDE IS THAT THIS WOULD BE A SPLIT-FLOW
PATTERN. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN IS TYPICALLY DETRIMENTAL TO OUR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS...DECIDED
THERE WAS LITTLE CONFIDENCE TOWARDS EITHER PRECIPITATION FALLING OR
NO PRECIPITATION. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL GUIDANCE HAS A
BETTER GRASP ON THESE TWO SYSTEMS.

BACK TO TEMPERATURES...AS ALLUDED TO BEFORE...THERE ARE SOME
DRAWBACKS WITHIN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THIS PERIOD. IF THE
EASTERN TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE TRI-STATE REGION
EVOLVES...WE WOULD EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF QUICK MOVING CLIPPER
SYSTEMS AND BRIEF COOL-DOWNS...FOLLOWED BY WARM-UPS. THE CONFUSING
ASPECT ABOUT THIS IS THAT THE GFS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A COLD
AIRMASS PLAGUES THE REGION FRIDAY WITH WARMING AFTERWARDS. THE
EUROPEAN MODEL DOES NOT INDICATE THIS SOLUTION AND INSTEAD KEEPS
TEMPERATURES FAIRLY WARM UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW AFTER A SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT PASSAGE. THIS WOULD BE SIMILAR TO WHAT IS ANTICIPATED TO
OCCUR TODAY. OVERALL...DECIDED A SLIGHTLY WARMER SOLUTION COMPARED
TO WHAT THE INITIALIZATION GAVE ME WAS PROBABLY A MORE FAVORABLE
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SKIES ARE CLEARING TONIGHT WITH A RETURN OF HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED
LATE SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST WITH SUBSIDENCE IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH HELPING TO BRING
STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH 50 KNOTS SHOWING UP AT ABOUT 2KFT AGL AND
INCREASING TO OVER 100 KTS WITH THE JET ALOFT ABOVE 18K FT AGL.
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS ARE TO NOT HOLD ONTO THE 50+ KT WINDS AS LONG
BELOW 5K FT AGL...SO BY 18Z...EXPECT WINDS SPEEDS TO HAVE PEAKED
AT AROUND 20-25KTS GUSTING TO 30-35KTS AND DO NOT EXPECT WINDS TO
INCREASE ANY FURTHER THAN THEY HAVE BY THAT POINT. EXPECT WINDS TO
DECREASE IN SPEED THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT AND
TURNING WEST AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...LOCKHART