Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 191743

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1043 AM MST Mon Feb 19 2018

Issued at 914 AM MST Mon Feb 19 2018

Just completed a major update. Models do not have a good grasp on
reality. Most of the northwest half of the area is receiving light
snowfall at this time, and has been for the last few hours.
Looking upstream 12z soundings to our west and north show that the
dendritic zone is at or near the surface in a shallow saturated
arctic air mass. Upslope and weak lift aloft combined with theta-e
lapse rates near zero are creating the light snow. The arw and
nmm show this the best although not widespread enough. So
considering all the above, updated to likely to categorical pops
with accumulations near a half inch which is already occurring at
a few locations in our area.

Models are not capturing the shallow cold air mass very well,
shocking, along with the widespread cloud cover. Models are
dissipating this cloud cover which does not seem reasonable. So
lowered the temperatures significantly which still may not be
enough. Also put overcast conditions in through tonight. Better
lift and deeper moisture tonight.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 407 AM MST Mon Feb 19 2018

CAA has continue into the area this morning. Temperatures will
continue to trend downward today and tomorrow as a low continues
to develop east of our area. Highs will have a drastic range from
the mid 20s in the northern half of our CWA versus our southern
counties reaching the upper 30s to the lower 40s.

Tonight, we will finally see the system move through the area
quickly. Expecting snowfall totals of 1 to 2 inches for our
northern CWA. Wednesday morning, temperatures are expected to
feel in the negative single digits for several hours. Not low
enough to meet any advisory criteria, but felt it was worth

Wednesday, cooler temperatures will spread more evenly across the
Tri-State region bringing our max temperatures in the 20s. Lastly,
Wednesday night, expect single digit lows, with the temperatures
feeling as if they were negative single digits.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM MST Mon Feb 19 2018

Wednesday to Friday: A Canadian airmass extending southward into
the region Wed/Wed night will shift eastward to the Great Lakes
Thu/Thu night as cyclonic flow /troughing/ aloft becomes more
pronounced over the Intermountain West and a lee cyclone develops
in E/SE Colorado. With the above in mind, expect cold temperatures
lingering Wed/Wed night followed by a warming trend on Thu and Fri.

Light precipitation cannot be ruled out at times Thu-Fri, presumably
in assoc/w episodic warm advection and shallow frontogenesis (on
the N/NE periphery of a waxing/waning lee cyclone) modulated by a
series of small amplitude shortwaves ejecting northeast from the
Desert Southwest into the High Plains. With such a pattern,
confidence is very low with regard to whether or not light
precipitation will develop in eastern Colorado and western KS, let
alone timing, p-type, or

Friday night to Sunday: The west CONUS trough is expected to
become progressive Fri night into Sat as potent shortwave energy
digs southeast ashore the Pacific coast. Guidance suggests that this
feature will de-amplify as it traverses the Rockies and progresses
into the Central Plains early Saturday. Some potential for light
precipitation will exist as this feature progresses east of the
Rockies across portions of the Southern/Central Plains Fri night
and Sat, however, confidence is low given the increasingly
complex/progressive synoptic pattern evolving over North America
this weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1032 AM MST Mon Feb 19 2018

For Kgld, mvfr conditions are expected through 06z tonight. At
that time ifr conditions will develop and continue until 15z
Tuesday morning vfr conditions should return. The winds will start
out from the northeast near 12 knots then shift to the east in the
afternoon. From 00z to 04z the winds will be east at 15 knots with
gusts to near 25 knots. From 04z tonight until 15z tomorrow, the
winds will be northeast near 13 knots. At 15z the winds will shift
to the north at 12 knots.

For Kmck, mvfr conditions with northeast winds near 12 knots are
expected until 06z. At that time mvfr conditions will still remain
but the winds will be from the north near 13 knots. At 14z, the
north winds near 13 knots will continue as vfr conditions should




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