Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 151748

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1148 AM MDT Fri Sep 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 415 AM MDT Fri Sep 15 2017

The short term forecast concerns are the warm temperatures and dry
conditions leading to an elevated fire weather threat this
afternoon followed by the cooler temperatures and a chance of
thunderstorms Saturday night through Sunday.

A surface low lifts out across the forecast area today with
another surface low redeveloping over area this evening. This next
low will track along a cold front as it sweeps through the region
tonight to be followed by an area of cooler high pressure moving
into the plains states on Saturday and Sunday.

The initial short wave trough lifting out of the upper trough
over the western U.S. clips the forecast area this afternoon as
it moves into the northern plains this evening. Several weaker
impulses will follow the initial short wave ahead of the main
upper low center that lifts into the northern plains by Saturday
evening. The overall flow pattern across the central U.S. flattens
somewhat through Sunday as one low towards eastern Canada and
another one begins to move into the Pacific Northwest.

Dry downsloping gusty southwest surface winds are possible today
ahead of the surface trough/low and cold front that eventually
moves through the forecast area. This should keep our RH values
between 15-20 percent across much of the forecast area and lead to
an elevated fire weather threat this afternoon.

With the upper flow paralleling the surface front through Saturday
and Sunday, the front is expected to remain in the vicinity of
the forecast area with temperatures remaining cooler through the
weekend. Highs Saturday and Sunday will be mainly in the 70s to
lower 80s with lows in the 50s to lower 60s. This will alleviate
some of the fire weather concerns associated with the hot
temperatures and dry conditions, but the frontal boundary may
also provide a focus for thunderstorm development mainly Saturday
night through Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 207 AM MDT Fri Sep 15 2017

With the persistent southwest flow, Monday and Tuesday looks to be
dry with above normal high temperatures.

The rest of the period is in question. Models are showing a strong
longwave trough approaching the region, from the northwest, on
Wednesday. Then another, stronger trough, follows on Friday. The
models are also showing the development of frontal systems in and
near the Tri-State region associated with each trough; however, at
this time they are not in agreement on location, strength, and
timing of this systems. The latest superblend run keeps us dry
through the week and does not show any impacts until next Friday,
when the second trough moves into the region. Even though the
official forecast is dry for Wednesday, anticipate a possible change
if the models do hold up with the first trough moving into the
region. Either way we will be watching this closely next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1138 AM MDT Fri Sep 15 2017

For KMCK and KGLD...VFR conditions should prevail today and
through the overnight hours. Cold front pushes through the area
around 8Z-9Z. Winds becoming northerly and breezy, with gusts up
to 25kt. Models are showing some post frontal stratus which may
lower ceilings at both terminals, with KMCK seeing the greater
impact. Took KMCK to MVFR near sunrise. This will be monitored by
future shifts.




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