Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 160940

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
340 AM MDT Sun Jul 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 340 AM MDT Sun Jul 16 2017

The upper low pressure that has persisted along the Colorado front
range the past day or two and its associated batch of rather moist
air is forecast to drift slowly northeast into extreme southwest
Nebraska by days end continuing northeast into central Nebraska
overnight. For Monday the low lifts a bit faster northeast toward
South Dakota. However, another weak upper low may develop just east
of our area late Monday night exiting the area by sunrise Tuesday
morning. An upper level high pressure area is forecast to be over
the area Tuesday before shifting slightly southeast during the night
allowing a weak weather disturbance to move into the far northwest
and northern parts of the area.

Will have slight chance to chance pops for showers and thunderstorms
today for the western 2/3 to 3/4 of the area with increasing chances
through midnight before decreasing from west to east late. Some
storms will be capable of locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding.
Showers and thunderstorms remain possible across the eastern 1/3 of
the area Monday afternoon and evening. Dry weather expected Tuesday
with a low chance for thunderstorms across the extreme northwest and
north Tuesday evening.

High temperatures today tricky once again given possible
precipitation and cloud cover which models have handled poorly. Will
be aiming for upper 70s to low 80s in far eastern Colorado with mid
80s to mid 90s elsewhere. Low temperatures tonight in the 60s except
around 70 from McCook to Hill City east.

850mb temperatures warm about 6F east to 17F west Monday and based
on the past 4 days support highs in the 102F to 105F range. Guidance
is about 6F to 12F cooler with low to mid 90s. No changes made. Low
temperatures Monday night in the 60s to low 70s. For Tuesday 850mb
temperatures warm another 3F to 6F while guidance temps warm about
about 5F. Should see highs at least in the mid 90s to around 102 and
these readings could be conservative. Lows Tuesday night again in
the 60s to low 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 228 AM MDT Sun Jul 16 2017

During the extended period there will be two different periods of
weather to focus in on. The first half on Wednesday and Thursday
will be primarily dry with a strong ridge in place over the CWA.
There could potentially be brief pop up rain showers each of those
days but nothing too wide spread or heavy.

The second half on Friday and Saturday, precipitation chances return
to the region. The ridge is still in place over the CWA but is
flattened out more. This is due to a small embedded upper level low
moving across the northern US states. As this low moves to the north
of the CWA, it will push a cold front down into the area. So, with
the flatter ridge, shortwave, abundant moisture from the desert
southwest and the cold front, precipitation chances are high.
Current guidance doesn`t have very impressive CAPE or shear but
there is enough to create some strong storms, maybe a severe storm
or two.

Temperatures during the period will be the highest on Wednesday in
the mid 90s to low 100s. By Saturday, temperatures will be in the
upper 80s to upper 90s. This slight cool down is likely due to the
cold front.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 340 AM MDT Sun Jul 16 2017

VFR conditions are expected at both terminals through the period
outside of showers and possible thunderstorms. A very moist
airmass remains in place. Any showers/thunderstorms that move over
either KGLD and KMCK could produce mvfr or ifr visibilities in
heavy rain. Winds through the period generally from the south to
southeast under 12kts.




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