Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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466
FXUS63 KGLD 012040
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
140 PM MST Thu Dec 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 140 PM MST Thu Dec 1 2016

As of 1 PM MST (2 PM CST) temperatures have risen into the 40s
across the region under mostly sunny skies as a few clouds pass
through the area. Winds have remained relatively light, around 10
mph, with a westerly component. The upper low that impacted the High
Plains earlier in the week is making its way further into Canada
just northeast of the Great Lakes, while a disturbance anticipated
to bring precipitation chances to the southern zones Friday night
pushes over the southwestern CONUS.

Quiet weather is expected during the short term period. Winds remain
light due to the weak pressure gradient over the area. Overnight
into Friday, flow aloft transitions from zonal to southwesterly as
an upper trough deepens into a closed low over Arizona. Ahead of
this system, cloud cover moves into the region through the end of
the period. Temperatures look to stay cool, with lows in the teens
to low 20s tonight and highs in the upper 30s to upper 40s tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 108 PM MST Thu Dec 1 2016

Going into the extended period...the Tri State region will see
two different systems set to affect portions of the CWA. The first
system involves a cutoff low that dives well into northern Mexico
by Friday night. A shortwave does move in tandem slowly with this
low over the northern plains. Strong surface ridging is in place
over a good portion of the Central/Northern plains with the
arrival of these systems. This ridging will allow for blocking of
any major moisture to really work up into the CWA...w/ only the
northern fringe scraping portions of the southern CWA before
shifting east by Saturday morning. With model qpf only pointing
towards a few hundredths of an inch at best...temps in the 20s
will only mean a slight chance for light snow of a few tenths of
an inch at best. The focus for any accum will be south of
Interstate 70 and east of the KS/CO border.

The second of the 2 systems is set to affect the CWA over a 36-42 hr
period...current depicted in latest models from next Monday night on
thru the morning hrs of Wednesday. Models bring this winter wx maker
in as an upper low/arctic front combo. There have been model
discrepancies on timing/strength of this system over the past few
days in terms of snowfall potential. Decent confidence that the CWA
will definitely see a profound shift in temperatures...setting the
area into more of a winter pattern. A shortwave working around the
base of this upper low/trough works thru the CWA. Latest GFS has
more of a north-south pattern set up for the precip that
occurs...while the trough in the ECMWF digs further south and precip
with this has more of an west to east sweep thru the CWA. These
differences are allowing for different snowfall totals. Surface
ridge that will work in behind this exiting system does play a role
late in the period with any easterly fetch that sets up providing an
upslope component that could enhance snow totals...especially over
NE CO. For now the CWA will be looking at an ~1-3 inch potential
based on model consensus...with higher amounts north of I-70. With
several days ahead before this system arrive any change in
track/timing could have these numbers adjusted significantly.

While the snowfall expected for the CWA still has an uncertainty
factor to it...what is certain for the CWA is that the area will see
overall temps drop sharply thanks to the passage of the arctic
front. Before its passage...CWA will highs range in the 40s for Sat-
Mon...then shift down to mainly the 20s for Tues-Wed. The arrival of
the surface ridge going into Thursday will allow for a rebound back
into the 30s. Overnight lows will see 20s before fropa...down to low
teens and single numbers above zero for Tuesday and Wednesday nights.
Accompanying these colder temps overnight will be windy conditions
that will bring wind chill readings as low as -5 to -10 below in
some locales for tues/wed nights.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1037 AM MST Thu Dec 1 2016

Vfr conditions are expected to prevail throughout the TAF period.
Winds will be light and generally from the west/northwest. A
disturbance approaching the area causes cloud cover to increase
overnight into tomorrow. No aviation impacts are anticipated.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JBH
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JBH/RRH



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