Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 241909

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
109 PM MDT Wed May 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 400 AM MDT Wed May 24 2017

Today-tonight...northeast to southwest oriented ridge axis moves
into the area in between low pressure systems over Kentucky and
north of Montana. 850mb temperatures warm about 13F (east) to 24F
(west) compared to yesterday and would support highs in the low to
mid 80s. MET/MAV/bias corrected grids support readings in the 70s.
Have blended the two with advertised highs in the low 70s east to
around 80 in parts of Yuma county Colorado. Low temperatures not as
cold compared to this morning with readings in the upper 40s to
low 50s.

Thursday-Thursday night...dry weather is expected in the morning
with thunderstorm chances increasing in the afternoon as a weather
disturbance moves off the Colorado front range and into the western
1/2 of the forecast area. Area will also be under left front quad of
upper jet aiding in upper divergence below modestly unstable
atmosphere. Thunderstorm chances continue through about midnight or
so for the area as the afternoon convection moves east. Models
suggesting another disturbance (weaker) may move through the
southern half of the area after midnight producing a slight chance
of thunderstorms. High temperature forecast will be tricky given
timing of convection and frontal boundary. Currently have mid 70s
northwest to mid 80s far south. Low temperatures in the mid 40s to
mid 50s.

Friday-Friday night...may see some morning rain showers across parts
of Yuma county as a piece of energy moves northeast ahead of
approaching upper trough. During the afternoon hours a bit more
significant disturbance moves in along with increasing upper jet
support. GFS shows this disturbance further east compared to the NAM
so for now nearly all (but far eastern counties) will have a chance
of thunderstorms mentioned. For the overnight hours bulk of 850-
500mb moisture and best pops generally along and north of the
interstate. Currently have high temperatures in the low to mid 70s
with overnight lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 108 PM MDT Wed May 24 2017

A trough is set to slowly move across the region beginning Thursday
night. A few ongoing thunderstorms could become strong to severe as
we head through the evening and into the early overnight hours.
Instability and CAPE will be relatively high; however, initiation
could be an issue as CIN will also be a bit high. If an updraft is
able to overcome the cap, will will see thunderstorms capable of
producing hail and gusty winds. A more favorable severe setup will
take shape on Friday as CAPE climbs to near 2000 J/Kg during the
midday to middle afternoon hours. Bulk shear will be in the 40 to 50
knot range with 0-1km shear approaching 20 knots, especially late in
the afternoon. The main risk will be supercells that will produce
large hail and damaging wind gusts. A tornado or two cannot be ruled
out, especially in the western half of the CWA. Good instability and
a favorable shear profile will allow the potential for elevated
severe thunderstorms to develop during the Friday overnight hours
and into the early morning on Saturday with large hail being the
primary threat.

The more favorable CAPE and theta-e axis will remain south of the
CWA as we head into Saturday. There will remain Chc PoPs in the
region with showers and embedded thunderstorms possible through the
late evening before the shortwave trough moves out of the area. An
isolated strong storm is possible on Saturday; however, severe
thunderstorms are not favored at this time due to only low levels of
instability. PoPs diminish Saturday evening, allowing the CWA to dry
out as we head into Sunday. A chance of scattered, mainly afternoon
thunderstorms are in the forecast Monday through Wednesday with the
next potential for severe thunderstorms potentially manifesting on
Wednesday afternoon.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM MDT Wed May 24 2017

VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Light winds today will
become breezy for KGLD tonight. During the night LLWS will occur
at both sites as a strong low level jet develops. Winds will turn
to the northwest behind a weak cold front in the morning. The
front will stall around KMCK in the late morning and early
afternoon causing winds to be light and variable.




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