Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 181607
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
907 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

UPDATE WAS JUST COMPLETED FOR THE RECENT EXPIRATION OF THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY. SOME FOG WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 554 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

EARLIER UPDATE WAS TO ISSUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR OUR CWA. DENSE
FOG DEVELOPED FROM OAKLEY TO TRIBUNE TO BURLINGTON...BUT HAS BEEN
A BIT MORE VARIABLE ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
GENERALLY FAVORS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA...THOUGH RAP DOES
SHOW THE PATCH OF FOG NEAR OAKLEY SPREADING A LITTLE BIT MORE TO
THE NORTH AND EAST TOWARD GRAHAM COUNTY. I AM NOT AS SURE ABOUT
HRRR WHICH ACTUALLY SHOWED FOG EXPANDING FROM THE COLORADO BORDER
TO THE EAST AND LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER SURFACE TD
VALUES ARE IN OUR EAST AND LIGHT FOG IS IN PLACE. I WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF DENSE FOG COVERAGE INCREASED AND SPREAD EAST AROUND
OR AFTER SUNRISE...SO I DECIDED TO COVER THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THE
ADVISORY.

WHILE CURRENT DENSE FOG COVERAGE IS SOMEWHAT PATCHY...ROAD
CONDITIONS AFTER YESTERDAYS FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LAST NIGHTS LIGHT
SNOW ARE IN POOR CONDITION ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. EVEN PATCHY
DENSE FOG WITH THESE ROAD CONDITIONS WOULD MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS.
I FELT MORE COMFORTABLE WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THAN SPS DESPITE
THE VARIABLE NATURE OF THE CONDITIONS SO FAR THIS MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 412 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

UPDATE TO CANCEL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. SNOW BAND HAS FALLEN
APART AND FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS COME TO AN END. UPPER LOW IS NOW
OVER NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NE. WHILE GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
SUPPORTING DENSE FOG REDEVELOPMENT...BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING...SO
FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT IS MINIMAL. I CANT JUSTIFY A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY JUST FOR FREEZING FOG...BUT FELT THE NEED TO KEEP
A SPS OUT TO COVER FREEZING FOG POTENTIAL. WILL MONITOR OVER THE
NEXT HOUR AND IF FOG CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE I MAY NEED
TO ISSUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS WITH AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ALONG
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS BUILDING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AT THE
SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER EASTERN COLORADO
WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA.

REGARDING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EARLY THIS MORNING....

RADAR AND SURROUNDING OBS SHOW A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW THAT FORMED ON
BACK SIDE OF H7 LOW MOVING EAST OVER OUR EASTERN CWA. THIS SNOW HAS
HELPED MIX OUT THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH SHIFT IN LOW
LEVEL FLOW TO THE NORTHWEST AIDING IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. BASED ON SHORT RANGE MODELS...I
AM STILL CONCERNED THAT LIGHT WINDS AND SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD LEAD TO FREEZING FOG REDEVELOPMENT BEHIND THIS SNOW BAND.
FREEZING FOG/DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF IT WITH BETTER
MOISTURE ADVECTION/POOLING. OVERALL TREND THROUGH THE MORNING
SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS AROUND 12-15Z...WITH ANY FOG
CLEARING BY MIDDAY. AFTER 12Z I AM SKEPTICAL THAT FLOW WOULD ALLOW
FOR ENOUGH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTION TO SUPPORT CONTINUED
FREEZING DRIZZLE...THOUGH FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MOST OF
THE MORNING ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY LINGER
A LITTLE LONGER. WITH THIS IN MIND I PLAN ON HOLDING ONTO CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH EXPIRATION IN CASE I NEED TO
EXTEND IT IN TIME FOR EASTERN LOCATIONS THROUGH 15Z.

REST OF TODAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST
TODAY AND AIR MASS WILL BEING MODERATING AND DRYING AS SURFACE
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. THERE MAYBE DECENT CLEARING WHICH COULD
SUPPORT TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S (FOR LOCATIONS WITHOUT SNOW PACK).
IT IS TOUGH TO SAY HOW MUCH CLEARING AS MODELS HOLD ONTO STRATUS
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON. NOT A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS...SO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO TODAYS HIGHS.

TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH MINIMAL IMPACT ON
SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER OUR CWA. NAM AND SREF BL RH CONTINUE TO RUN
HIGH...LIKELY AS A RESULT OF SNOW PACK...AND SUPPORT FOG/STRATUS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. I ADDED PATCHY FOG TO TONIGHT AS
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING BL MOISTURE
POOLING ALONG AND EAST OF SURFACE TROUGH...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
PRETTY LOW AS TROUGH MAY BE EAST OF OUR CWA. THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE
SUBFREEZING...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW THAT ANY FOG WOULD BE DENSE
ENOUGH TO WORRY ABOUT ICE ACCUMULATION (FREEZING FOG). I AM
LEAVING FOG OUT OF FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT TO SEE HOW
THINGS EVOLVE TONIGHT FIRST. SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD BACK
OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH CONTINUED
MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS ALOFT. COMPLICATION TO TEMP FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPACT OF DEEPER SNOW PACK IN OUR NORTHWEST
CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WITH WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.  THE NEXT WEATHER MAKING
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN COLDER AIR TO THE PLAINS WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION STARTING EARLY MONDAY MORNING...MOSTLY FOR EASTERN
COLORADO LOCATIONS.

PRECIPITATION MONDAY WILL BEGIN AS SNOW IN THE MORNING WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AT THE LOWER LEVELS...BUT WILL BECOME RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
AFTER SUNSET...PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  UNDER AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS DEPICTED IN GUIDANCE AS STALLING OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST STATES...BUT THE TRI STATE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN THE WEST. THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND
MOVE WESTWARD TO BRING A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 439 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

LINGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS SUPPORTED FREEZING FOG REDEVELOPMENT
ACROSS NW KANSAS WHICH IS SPREADING INTO EASTERN COLORADO AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY IN PLACE AT
KGLD...AND CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE AT KMCK OVER THE NEXT
HOUR. VLIFR CONDITIONS SHOULD EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO MVFR AND
THEN VFR BY LATE MORNING AS MAIN MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS EAST. THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY THAT LOW STRATUS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLY REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MODEL
DATA MAY BE OVERLY INFLUENCED BY LINGERING SNOW PACK...SO I KEPT
CONDITIONS VFR AFTER MIDDAY FOR BOTH TAFS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT AROUND 5KT OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DR


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