Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 280952

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
252 AM MST Tue Feb 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 250 AM MST Tue Feb 28 2017

Cold front will continue through the forecast area overnight and
should clear it by 12z. Upper forcing arrives this afternoon with
a shortwave trough/open wave. Forecast soundings start out very
dry below 5kft, but moisten up with time as precipitation
develops. Although ice will be introduced into the column, there
will be a shallow surface based warm layer which will result in
partial or total melting. Wet bulb zero heights suggest all snow
except perhaps in the far southeast, while higher resolution
precipitation type guidance from HRRR and SREF plumes suggest a
rain/snow mix as far west as Colorado. Either way, surface
temperatures will be above freezing and ground temperatures even
warmer, so snow will likely be melting on contact. As a result,
any accumulating snow this afternoon or tonight will be very
light, less than an inch, primarily in northeast Colorado. Snow
will wind down overnight as the upper system moves east.

The central CONUS will be under northwest flow Wednesday and
Thursday. A couple of very weak shortwaves move through northern
and central Nebraska, but further south will be more under the
influence of the western ridge so no precipitation expected.
Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 159 AM MST Tue Feb 28 2017

The pattern for the extended period has westerly upper level flow
over the Central Rockies and Central High Plains along with a strong
surface high pressure center northeast of the Tri-State region. The
models are also showing a developing lee trough to our west. This
will set up dry conditions with well above normal temperatures
(Highs around 70) for this weekend.

After this weekend... a little less certain with the pattern as
there is a possibility of a cold front moving through the area
Sunday night. However... the mean at this time is still favoring
above normal temps (50s to near 60F).


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1026 PM MST Mon Feb 27 2017

Conditions will remain VFR through the TAF period at GLD and MCK.
Winds will turn northwest between 09-11Z following the passage of
a cold front, and will turn north and become gusty by 18Z as the
pressure gradient increases in the wake of a deepening surface
low. There will be a chance of rain or GLD will see a chance of
rain or snow after 00Z, but will remain VFR.




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