Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 211353
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
653 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 648 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

LARGE AREA OF FOG ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AS ADVECTED INTO THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA IN PLUME OF HIGHER TDS TO THE EAST OF
SFC TROUGH NEAR THE KS/CO BORDER. LOWEST VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING ON THE PERIPHERY OF THIS ADVANCING AIRMASS AND EXPECT
DENSE FOG TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS. UNSURE HOW
FAR NORTH TO BRING THE DENSER FOG AS SFC HEATING WILL SOON START
TO OFFSET THE MOISTURE ADVECTION...FOR NOW INCLUDED I70 FROM
OAKLEY TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CWA BUT WILL MONITOR FOR
FURTHER REVISIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 232 AM MST
SUN DEC 21 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE THE SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS AND MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

THE WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT MOVES EAST
OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION TODAY AND LIFTS INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TONIGHT. THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE MOVING INTO POSITION OVER
THE WEST COAST ON MONDAY. A COUPLE OF IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
TODAY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND DEEPEN INTO A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH A POSSIBILITY OF
LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. THE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MINIMAL PRECIPITATION AND
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
WITH THE DEEPENING LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE WILL ALSO
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE LOW BEFORE THE LOW BEGINS
LIFTING NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS MOVING EAST
OF THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE PATTERN WILL BE PRESENT AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.  THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN HEADING INTO THURSDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION.

MODEL FORECASTS ARE NOW COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT DEPICTING A
LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PATTERN DIVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE NOW ALMOST
IDENTICAL WITH THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN...HOWEVER THE CANADIAN HAS NOW
BECOME THE MODEL OUTLIER WITH A HIGHER AMPLITUDE TROUGH PATTERN AND
LAGGING IN TIMING BEHIND THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. CONTINUING TO GIVE
MORE MERIT TO THE GFS GUIDANCE BECAUSE IT APPEARS TO BE THE MOST
CONSISTENT MODEL TO DATE BASED ON PAST RUNS.  THE GFS DEPICTS THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION AND LIGHT
SNOW.  MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME CHANCES TO SEE SOME
PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. UNDER A HALF INCH OF
SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY...WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING FROM
THE WEST.  EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY TODAY WITH MID AND LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH GLD AND MCK WITH
WINDS INCREASING AND TURNING NORTHWEST BETWEEN 03Z-06Z. WINDS WILL
INCREASE FURTHER BETWEEN 06Z-09Z AND BECOME GUSTY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ028-029-
     042.

CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...LOCKHART



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