Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 020806
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
206 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AHEAD OF A RIDGE
PROJECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND A FRONT THAT IS PROJECTED TO BE
ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS TODAY AND INTO OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH
MOVES INTO EASTERN COLORADO.

MAIN ISSUE THIS MORNING IS TO WHAT EXTENT STORMS CURRENTLY IN THE
NORTH MOVING SOUTHEAST WILL IMPACT THE NORTHEAST FA. ACCORDING TO
PROJECTIONS THE MAIN PATH WILL TRACK THROUGH MCK AREA SO WILL HAVE
HIGHEST CHANCE POPS THERE WITH DECREASING POPS TO THE SOUTH WHERE
CINH VALUES ARE GREATER.

POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE EXITING MCS ARE PROBLEMATIC.
GOOD SUBSIDENCE IS INDICATED ON WATER VAPOR BEHIND THE MCS. THIS
MAY DELAY PRECIPITATION CHANCE FOR AWHILE THIS AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER
THE SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH LOOKS GOOD SO WILL KEEP HIGHER CHANCE
POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WITH DECREASING POPS
OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
HIGH AND PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.  ALSO,
SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40KTS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY THROUGH MIDDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN EASTERN COLORADO WHERE
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT MAY INITIATE A FEW STORMS. HIGHER CINH
VALUES SHOULD INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR STORMS SHOULD BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT WHEN THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW SHOULD INITIATE SOME
STORMS OVER THE NORTHWEST FA THAT THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA.  SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SEEM ADEQUATE FOR THIS EVENT DUE TO
LIMITED MOISTURE.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER IN THE MID 80S TODAY AND THEN
GRADUALLY WARMING TO AROUND 90 SATURDAY.  MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD
COOL TO THE LOWER 60S TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT WARMING TO THE MID
AND UPPER 60S SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

AN ACTIVE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED.

THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
RETROGRADES FURTHER WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...ALLOWING THE UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW TO BECOME MORE
PROMINENT OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE
FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD ACTIVE WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW. THE NORTHWEST FLOW BUCKLES AND
BEGINS TO TRANSITION BACK TO A SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL FLOW AS A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY AND THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES BECOMES LESS PROMINENT AHEAD OF A LONGER
WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE UNITED STATES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS CANADA...A COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY AS WITH
MORE PROMINENT VORTICITY MAXIMUMS MOVING EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS EACH DAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING WHAT APPEARS
TO BE SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING...SO CONFIDENCE IN KEEPING RELATIVELY HIGHER
POPS IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY IS PRETTY HIGH. TEMPERATURES IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE HIGHS THAT WILL BE WELL
INTO THE 90S ON SUNDAY. THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME WILL ALSO BE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF RAIN WITH
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ALOFT MOVE EAST
OF THE ROCKIES ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT BOTH KMCK AND KGLD
TERMINALS...WITH BEST COVERAGE AT KMCK AFTER 12Z WHEN THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX AHEAD OF STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH SW
NEBRASKA TOWARDS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WITH FRONT STALLING SOUTH
OF BOTH TERMINALS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE WITH CHANCES ENDING AT KMCK FIRST (LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON). THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER AT KGLD INTO THE
EVENING DEPENDING ON AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONT. WHILE
GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS VERY GOOD BL MOISTURE...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT DUE TO LACK OF SUPPORT FROM STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE AND POSSIBILITY FOR INCREASED LOW LEVEL MIXING FROM
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AS FRONT AND SURFACE LOW SHIFT SOUTH OF
BOTH TERMINALS. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF GUSTS TO 20KT AT KGLD
DURING THE MORNING OTHERWISE WINDS MOST OF TAF PERIOD WILL TREND
LESS THAN 12KT.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...DR


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