Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 160931

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
231 AM MST Sat Dec 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 208 PM MST Fri Dec 15 2017

Not too much to talk about through tomorrow. Currently a lot of sun
with temperatures ranging from the upper 50s to the lower 60s. Low
relative humidities over much of the area. Fortunately the wind has
stayed below 20 mph or we would be having fire weather issues.

Westerly winds decrease through the night before they start shifting
to the north later tonight as a weak front moves through. With low
dewpoints and no significant cloud cover, any drop off in the wind
will allow temperatures to drop rapidly. So tended to go toward the
colder guidance.

Cold front moves through early in the day. Winds will shift to the
northeast at 10 to 20 mph as cooler air sags into the area. High
temperatures will cool into the upper 40s to the middle 50s which is
still above normal.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 230 AM MST Sat Dec 16 2017

A much colder and active pattern will emerge Tuesday through
Saturday. The influence of an H5 ridge will prevail on Tuesday and
Wednesday before a strong low pushes a trough south and
southwestward into the High Plains.

A strong cold front will dive southward into the region late
Wednesday night and into Thursday morning. A relatively intense
theta-e gradient will provide a focus for precipitation along and
following the front. Light to moderate snow is in the forecast on
Thursday as this boundary makes it`s way across the CWA from
northwest to southeast. Moisture will be adequate but not overly
abundant as PW values will be in the 0.15" to 0.30" range. Still a
bit early to forecast snowfall totals with confidence, but early
estimates range from 0.5" to 2.5" from south to north. There is good
agreement between the global models at this time that has been
reasonably consistent for several days now. Currently, daytime high
temperatures are forecast to reach the upper 20s to lower 30s on
Thursday; however, the 850mb temps are in the -14C to -11C range,
which has been consistent across several model runs. We may need to
lower temperatures a bit, especially late in the day on Thursday
going into the overnight hours. Currently looking for lower teens
Thursday night but middle to upper single digits are not out of the

Continued CAA and lowered H5 heights continue into Friday and
Saturday, keeping temperatures below average. Look for highs on
Friday and Saturday to only reach the lower to middle 30s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1101 PM MST Fri Dec 15 2017

VFR conditions should continue, though conditions may begin to
decrease around the end of the TAF period. Winds should shift to
the northeast behind a front Saturday afternoon.




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