Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 230520
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1120 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1121 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO REMOVE MENTION OF HIGHER POPS FOR TRW. MOST
ACTIVITY HAS CLEARED THE REGION WITH ONLY NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA
STILL SEEING TRW/RW. CLEARING TREND FOR PRECIP WILL CONTINUE WITH
SOME ISOLATED RW/TRW POSSIBLE THRU 12Z SATURDAY. HAVE ALSO
MENTIONED PATCHY FOG FOR ALL AREAS GIVING THAT AREA HAS SEEN
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN IN SPOTS...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR
DECREASING WINDS AND SOME CLRING AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE COVERAGE AND SEVERITY THUNDERSTORMS. AS
STATED IN EARLIER AFD. STRONGER AND NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE LOW
TO OUR SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH OUTFLOW FROM PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO HAS KEPT THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH FROM
MOVING VERY FAR NORTH. I HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS BUT STILL MAY NOT
HAVE GOT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. MESOSCALE GUIDANCE AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THIS WITH A FRONTAL POSITION SOUTH
OF THE INTERSTATE.

ALSO OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO HAS SETTLED OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. MID AND UPPER LIFT HAS KEPT
THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. THIS LOW
LEVEL/MESOSCALE LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED BY INCOMING STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO OUR SOUTH IN ADDITION THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET
THAT AFFECTS THE AREA INTO THE NIGHT.

SO HAVE PULLED LIKELY AND HIGHER POPS FURTHER SOUTH TO REFLECT
EXPECTED FRONTAL POSITION. ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE/HELICITY
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS. DO EXPECT STORMS TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BEFORE ENDING
SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. THERE MAY BE SOME STRATUS FOG BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL INCREASE ENOUGH FROM THE SOUTH.

FOR TOMORROW SLOWED UP THE ARRIVAL OF THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS HAVING SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE FRINGES OF THE
AREA. SLIGHTLY REDUCED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW IN
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL EJECT OUT OF COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE BOUNDARY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL BE THE LIKELY AREA FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION...WITH STORM MOTIONS TAKING THEM ENE THROUGH
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. INSTABILITY/DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SUGGESTS SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE EVENING
HOURS FROM YUMA COUNTY COLORADO EAST ALONG THE KANSAS AND NEBRASKA
BORDER AREA. ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTH BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE
COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE
AFTERNOON STORMS IN EASTERN COLORADO WHICH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
INTO AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERE PARAMETERS
ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AND MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ON MONDAY...MEAN TROUGH POSITION IN THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES IS REINFORCED WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LIKELY
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE
AT THIS POINT AND THERE WILL BE A SURFACE WARM FRONT TO PROVIDE
FOCUS FOR INITIATION...SO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY. ON
TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD AND BE
LOCATED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE ROCKIES BEHIND IT. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO MAINLY DRY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS...WITH POSSIBLY ISOLATED STORMS POPPING UP AS
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED DURING PEAK HEATING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

RW/TRW FROM EARLIER WILL GIVE WAY TO FOGGY CONDITIONS THRU 13Z
SATURDAY. EXPECTING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO SET UP AS WINDS
SLACKEN GIVING GLD/MCK 3-4SM WITH 1 1/2SM AT TIMES. BY 13Z...VFR
CONDITIONS W/ SCT LOW/MID CLDS. WINDS BECM LGT/VAR THEN BY 13Z WSW
5-10KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JN



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