Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGLD 181843
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1243 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED LARGE H5 RIDGE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THIS
FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS LARGE AREA OF LOW STRATUS CURRENTLY HAVING
LARGE IMPACTS ON AVIATION SERVICES AROUND MCCOOK. LOOKS LIKE
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN A PROBLEM THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH ANY
BREAKS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED WITH CLOUDS EXPANDING RIGHT
AFTER SUNSET. BY 06Z...ADVANCING WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
VERTICAL MOISTURE PROFILE ACROSS THIS AREA CAUSING CLOUDS AND ANY
LINGERING FOG TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEARLY 20
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY IN AREAS WHERE CLOUDS HAVE NOT BROKEN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE MAIN WX FEATURE FOR FRIDAY ON INTO THE THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND WILL BE THE INTERACTION OF TROUGH/FRONT MOVING OFF THE
ROCKIES...AND THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WHICH ARE SET IN THE MODELS TO
MAINLY PASS TO OUR SOUTH. EXPECTING WINDS TO SHIFT TO MORE SSW THRU
THE DAY FRIDAY AS FRONT SHIFTS EASTWARD. LOOKING FOR BREEZY
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH. THIS SET
UP WILL DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE
DAY FRIDAY RIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE SYSTEM CLRS REGION BY
12Z SUNDAY. MODELS DO DIFFER THOUGH ON AMOUNTS OF QPF EXTENT INTO
THE CWA AND WILL DEPEND ON TIMING AND POSITIONING OF FRONT AS IT
COMES OFF THE EASTERN ROCKIES. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO SHOW FROPA
THRU AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BFR TAPERING OFF SATURDAY
NIGHT. MOST OF QPF SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH CLOSEST TO ODILE SO
HAVE HIGHEST POPS THERE. ALSO PUT IN MENTION OF TRW. TEMPS DURING
THIS TIME WILL BE ON A SLOW DOWNTREND WITH INCREASING CLDS/PRECIP
OVER AREA. FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO 90F WITH MOST AREAS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S AND SATURDAY INTO THE LOW 80S AT BEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DROP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE ARE TWO SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES OF INTEREST DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. ONE IS A FAIRLY INTENSE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE
QUICKLY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY
AND ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL MAKE IT THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY MONDAY BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE
SECOND FEATURE IS A CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT WILL DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY TUESDAY AS IT TRANSITIONS
TO MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE. FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM IN AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT LEAST MINOR DIFFERENCES
IN MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE WITH PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF
BOTH SYSTEMS LEADING TO SOME UNCERTAINTY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

LARGE STRATUS DECK TO THE NORTH OF WARM FRONT MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE FOR THE COMING TAF PERIOD. EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE AT MCK THROUGH THE EVENING WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR
CLOUDS BREAKING UP BETWEEN 22 AND 00Z. WHILE LOW STRATUS AND
POSSIBLE FOG WILL REDEVELOP BY 04Z...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
AFTER 06Z WHEN WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH HELPING TO SCOUR
OUT ABUNDANT MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE AREA.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...JN/BRB
AVIATION...JRM



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.