Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 211735

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1135 AM MDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Issued at 830 AM MDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Have updated the forecast the remove frost and cancel the frost
advisory. Latest obs from around the affected areas showing upper
30s to the lower 40s. Rest of the forecast unchanged as CWA will
see filtered sunshine and highs in the lower to mid 70s.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 202 AM MDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Early morning WV imagery and RAP analysis shows large scale
ridging building across the western US into the plains, with NW
flow over the Central High Plains. At the surface, high pressure
has slid east of our CWa towards the southern Missouri River
valley. Lee trough has redeveloped and southerly surface gradient
is in place over our CWA.

Regarding frost advisory this morning: Temps have already dropped
to low to mid 30s at multiple locations across our CWA (upper
bound of, which is already faster than the forecast diurnal curve
indicated. Southerly winds 10-15 mph are leading to better
mixing/higher temps elsewhere, but further decoupling should
result in a gradual decrease in winds by sunset. There is still
enough time for winds to drop off and temps to quickly fall to the
lower 30s across our entire CWA due to mostly clear skies and Tds
in the 20s to lower 30s. Will keep frost advisory in place as it
is, and let it run it`s course as frost conditions are still
likely through the morning.

Today-Sunday night: Mid to upper level ridging across the southern
US will dominate sensible weather. A very deep dry air mass will
remain in place, with cross mountain flow along northern part of
ridge. A shortwave trough rotating through the Northern Plains
near the US/Canada border, and it`s associated (weak) cold front
will drop south Saturday night. Despite periods of weak forcing
the dry/stable air mass will preclude any precipitation chances.
Above normal temperatures are expected through these periods with
the warmest day on Saturday when highs will reach the lower 80s
for parts of our CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 202 AM MDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Predominantly dry weather continues during the extended period
with above normal high temperatures in the 70s. Low temperatures
start off in the 40s to low 50s before decreasing into the upper
30s to mid 40s.

On Monday, the upper ridge dominating the pattern progresses east
of the region, keeping conditions dry. However, the ridge breaks
down on Tuesday as a stronger disturbance passes through the
southwesterly flow. This generates precipitation chances for the
central Plains. At this time, it appears the better chance for
precipitation will be east of the region, with only a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms clipping the extreme eastern
portion of the forecast area Tuesday afternoon and evening. After
this brief opportunity for some rain, the ridge rebuilds over the
region, bringing near zero PoPs back to the forecast on Wednesday
and Thursday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1135 AM MDT Fri Oct 21 2016


Precip/Wx....None expected.

Winds........For KGLD...NNW around 10kts thru 02z Saturday...then
SSE around 10kts thru 16z Saturday. From 16z Saturday onward...SW
around 10kts. For KMCK...SW becoming NW by 20z around 10kts. By
02z Saturday...light/variable thru 15z Saturday. From 15z
onward...SE around 10kts.


Issued at 202 AM MDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Very dry air mass and above normal temperatures will lead to
afternoon RH values dropping to 15 percent or lower for parts of
our CWA. Daytime winds are not expected to reach or exceed
critical criteria. We could have a few brief periods of 20 mph
gusts midday Saturday, but this would likely occur while RH values
are still 20 percent or higher. Critical fire weather conditions
are not expected at this time.




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