Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 300507
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1107 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 137 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR
FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT MORE
IMPORTANTLY...THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED EXTREME RAINFALL RATES...
WARRANTS A WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THIS AFTERNOON: CUMULUS FIELD WEST OF AN ATWOOD TO GOVE LINE WILL
LIKELY GENERATE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION AS HEATING CONTINUES TO
PUSH READINGS NEAR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 80S. SPC
MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWS CAPE OVER 1500 J/KG WITH MINIMAL CIN IN
THIS AREA. KEPT LOW POPS IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY WEST OF
HWY 83 TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

THIS EVENING-WEDNESDAY: MAIN CHANGE IN THE FORECAST WAS TO SLOW
DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEMS NOW
OVER UT/CO/NM. PRECIP EMPHASIS NOW IS IN THE TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME RATHER THAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO WED MORNING. OVERALL...THE
LOCATION OF THE BEST RAINFALL STILL APPEARS TO BE OVER OUR WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN AREAS SO NO MAJOR CHANGE THERE.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TWO MAIN SHOTS OF PRECIP. THE FIRST
IMPULSE WILL LIFT OUT OF NEW MEXICO INTO SE COLORADO...SW KANSAS
AND THE TX-OK PANHANDLE LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL MAINLY IMPACT THE FAR SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THE LARGE CIRCULATION NOW OVER UTAH IS A LITTLE MORE OF A
WILD CARD IN THAT THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE BEST PRECIP COVERAGE
WITH THIS FEATURE IS NOT AS CERTAIN. LATEST NAM/ECMWF IMPACT MORE
OF OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WEDNESDAY WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL...IN CONTRAST WITH THE GFS WHICH KEEPS THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP WITH THIS SECOND FEATURE ALMOST ENTIRELY IN CENTRAL AND
EASTERN COLORADO.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN IMPRESSIVE WITH 1.50" PROGGED
TONIGHT AND 1.25" WED AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...MEAN 0-6 KM WINDS
AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD MEANS THAT ANY AREA GETTING
DECENT SHOWERS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AS IT
STANDS NOW...THE FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH IN OUR CWA THE BETTER THE
CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
THAT LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES NEAR NORTON...MCCOOK AND
HILL CITY WILL LIKELY SEE MINIMAL PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM.
FOR NOW THOUGH...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HIGHLIGHTS FOR FLOODING IN THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WEAK 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE EVENING. WITH MOIST AIR ALREADY
IN PLACE...KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 06Z OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP AFTER
06Z WHICH WILL END THE PRECIPITATION THREAT.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...500 MB RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES WHICH PLACES THE HIGH PLAINS IN DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AS CLOUDS DECREASE AND
WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS.

FRIDAY...CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE
COLORADO FRONT RANGE. MIXED LAYER CAPES WILL BE NEAR 500 J/KG OVER
FAR WESTERN KIT CARSON/CHEYENNE COUNTIES. SO...WILL KEEP SMALL
CHANCE POPS OVER THAT AREA.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...500 MB RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. OTHER THAN OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED CONVECTION...DIFFICULT
TO FIND A FEATURE TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE DURING THE
AFTERNOONS...BUT HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECASTS DRY WITH LACK OF
MODEL DYNAMICS DEPICTED.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...GFS SHOWS THE RIDGE WEAKENING IN RESPONSE TO A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO. ECMWF IS NOT AS
AGRESSIVE...BUT HINTS AT THE WEAKENING RIDGE. WILL INDICATE A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT AT KGLD AND KMCK
BASED ON MODEL DATA AND RADAR TRENDS.  THE FORECAST SOUNDING FOR
KGLD INDICATES IFR CONDITIONS TOWARD SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR KMCK INDICATE MVFR CONDITIONS. SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG WILL PERSIST UNTIL AROUND NOON.
THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT EACH SITE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THOSE CHANCES DECREASING WITH BY EVENING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ027-041-042.

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR COZ090>092.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DLF
SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...MENTZER
AVIATION...FS






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