Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 250541
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1141 PM MDT Sun Sep 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 235 PM MDT Sun Sep 24 2017

The overall pattern that has kept the Central High Plains region
wet over the weekend will begin to shift eastward by late Monday
as the upper low over the Great Basin begins to lift out across
the Rockies and into the northern high plains. This will push the
frontal boundary that had stagnated over the forecast area east of
the region on Monday, taking the area of heaviest rainfall with
it. Until the widespread area of rain moves further east, the
potential remains for locations mainly in closer proximity to the
front, to experience moderate to heavy rain showers that could
train over the same locations and produce localized flash
flooding. High temperatures on Monday should remain in the 50s
while the overnight low temperatures will be in the lower 40s to
middle 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at
156 PM MDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Precipitation chances will continue during the beginning part of the
extended period as the low pressure system that has been impacting
the region through the weekend moves northeast out of the CWA. Rain
showers are only expected during this time (Monday night into early
Tuesday morning). Once that low moves out of the region the CWA is
expected to see a dry period through the majority of the remaining
extended period. This is due to zonal and northwest upper level flow
dominating the region and preventing moisture from moving up into
the area. One model is showing a more progressive pattern with
bringing precipitation to the region on Thursday but the other ones
are dry. So PoPs were decreased to accommodate the other models but
there are still slight chances in the forecast during that time.

Temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s during the entire period.
With Tuesday seeing the coolest temperatures and Sunday seeing the
warmest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1141 PM MDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Areas of showers and thunderstorms continue to rotate from the
south to the north across northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska.
Trend is towards IFR and LIFR cigs, however vis has been highly
variable due to ample low level moisture and complications from
moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorm activity. This pattern
should remain in place through most of the TAF period, with
gradual improvement late Monday afternoon and Monday evening
(particularly at KMCK). Confidence is low on exact timing of
possible improvement or deterioration in vis/cigs, so prevailing
conditions were based on persistence and short range model
consensus. Winds should prevail out of the north, with gusts
possible late tonight through tomorrow (around 15-21kt).

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...DR


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