Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 130820
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
220 AM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1117 PM MDT SAT JUL 12 2014

COMPLETED AN UPDATE NOT TOO LONG AGO. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE
POPS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA. THIS
AREA IS NEXT TO ONGOING CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN SLOW MOVING AND
MAINLY GOVERNED BY MESOSCALE INFLUENCES. PER ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
AND SURFACE TROUGH COMING IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST...KEPT LOWER
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING THROUGH THE ENTIRE NIGHT.
OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM MDT SAT JUL 12 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CU DEVELOPING FROM NEAR
OBERLIN TO COLBY AND THEN WESTWARD INTO COLORADO. THIS IS ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER DEW POINTS AND JUST NORTH OF A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WHICH LIES ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS. SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING WILL BE NEBULOUS TODAY...BUT THERE IS A WEAK VORTICITY
MAXIMUM EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW COMING OUT OF COLORADO AND
FAVORABLE QVECTOR CONVERGENCE FOR LIFT. BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WITH STORM
MOTIONS GENERALLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST TAKING THEM SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST WITH UP TO
1500 J/KG IN THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
ONLY BE 20-25KTS...WHICH WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. STORMS
SHOULD STEADILY MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT AND EXIT THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY...LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LOW SPINS OVER THE CENTRAL
CANADIAN PRAIRIE. QVECTORS NOT AS SUPPORTIVE FOR SYNOPTIC SCALE
LIFT AS COMPARED TO SATURDAY BUT THERE MAY BE ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE COMING DOWN IN THE FLOW. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE
WEAKER...GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SLIGHTLY BETTER AT 20-30KTS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN COLORADO
THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
PARAMETERS SUGGEST SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL AGAIN BE RATHER LIMITED.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH LOWS
TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 60S AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014

WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS REGION WEDNESDAY...WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE LAST BIT OF
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY WILL FUNNEL LOTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA...WITH ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AT LEAST SOME CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.  INSTABILITY ALOFT SHOULD
REMAIN OVER EASTERN COLORADO...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSHOWERS OVER THE REST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. DUE TO CLOUD
COVER...RAINFALL AND ALREADY COOLER CANADIAN AIR...HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S...WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES COULD BE EVEN A BIT
LOWER.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BEGIN MOVING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  SOME LINGERING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSHOWERS WILL REMAIN FOR THE REGION ON THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ZONE SHIFTS SOUTHWARD WITH THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT AND BRING IN MORE DRY AIR ALOFT
ON FRIDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN COLORADO ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AND COULD BE SUSTAINABLE WITH PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND THURSDAY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...AND THE RETURN OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY...WHICH COULD BE THE NEXT WEATHER
MAKER FOR THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND. CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON STORMS WILL
CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS THE POSSIBILITY OF THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL AFFECT THE AREA.  MODEL TIMING VARIES ON THE PASSAGE TO
EITHER SATURDAY OR SUNDAY...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING PINNING
DOWN PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM MDT SAT JUL 12 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT THIS TIME. MAIN
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE SOUTH AND WEST OF KGLD. NEWER GUIDANCE
HAS THIS AREA FURTHER SOUTHWEST THAN EARLIER GUIDANCE.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH TOMORROW. A
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CREATE A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH SITES...MAINLY AT KGLD. FEEL THE BETTER
CHANCE IS AT KGLD RIGHT NOW SO PUT IN A VCTS MENTION THERE
BEGINNING AT 00Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BULLER






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