Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGLD 030823
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
223 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

AS OF 3 AM CDT...2 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
PARTLY CLOUDY DUE TO CIRRUS SLIDING IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES
ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH A COUPLE 70S ALSO NOTED. WINDS ARE
SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 MPH. AT THE SURFACE...A LEE TROUGH REMAINS
ENTRENCHED IN EAST COLORADO. IN ADDITION...A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS
BACKED INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. ALOFT...A
COUPLE SHORTWAVES ARE NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE FIRST IS
OVER WESTERN COLORADO...MOVING NORTHEAST. THE SECOND IS LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...SLOWLY TRANSITIONING NORTHEAST AS WELL.

MAIN WEATHER STORY FOR TODAY WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FOR THIS
FORECAST RUN...DID MAKE SOME CHANGES WITH REGARDS TO PERCENTAGES AND
PLACEMENT OF HIGHEST POPS. GLOBAL AND HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
HAVE SHIFTED THE AXIS OF EXPECTED RAINFALL FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY`S FORECAST RUNS. THIS IS A RESULT OF THE NEW MEXICO
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING FURTHER SOUTH THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. WEAK
FORCING IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS BUT THE TWO
MAIN AREAS OF LIFT SHOULD SPLIT AROUND THE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL...
DECIDED TO LOWER POPS AND SHIFT AXIS OF PRECIPITATION FURTHER SOUTH.
DID INCREASE POPS OVER EAST COLORADO WHERE SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD
MOVE IN FROM THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE THIS EVENING. GLANCING AT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MOISTURE PARAMETERS...THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE FOR STORMS DOES INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...A LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD AIDE IN STORM PERSISTENCE AS
CONVECTION SLIDES EAST. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS MEAGER...GENERALLY 20
TO 30 KNOTS. WITH SOME DRY AIR REMAINING AT THE SURFACE...CAPE
VALUES SHOULDN`T BE TOO IMPRESSIVE...GENERALLY 1000-2000 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...AM NOT TOO CONCERNED WITH TODAY`S SEVERE
WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING THREATS AND MOST LIKELY...ONLY A FEW
STRONG STORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE STRONG WINDS AS WITH RECENT DAYS.

TOMORROW...A HEIGHTENED CHANCE FOR STORMS IS NOW FORECAST COMPARED TO
RECENT DAYS. WITH LESS ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED TODAY...THE THREAT OF
AIRMASS CONTAMINATION FOR TUESDAY SEEMS LESS LIKELY. MOISTURE
ADVECTION PERSISTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...LEADING TO MORE SUBSTANTIAL
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS BEING REALIZED. IN ADDITION...THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER WEST COLORADO SHOULD TAKE A SOUTHEAST DIVE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. FURTHER...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
INCREASE NEAR 35-50 KTS...INDICATING A HIGHER THREAT FOR SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS THAN IN RECENT DAYS. ALL THIS BEING SAID...FEEL THAT
TUESDAY IS THE DAY TO MONITOR FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND ALSO SEVERE WEATHER. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS.

ON WEDNESDAY...SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY`S SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE AN ENVIRONMENT HOSTILE TO
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AS A RESULT...FORECAST A HOT AND DRY DAY
WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER AND NO EXPECTATION OF PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SEVERAL
700MB SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN RELATIVELY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH
THE OVERALL PATTERN BUT NOT WITH REGARDS THE STRENGTH OR TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVES. THE ECMWF IS CONSISTENTLY TRENDING A BIT SLOWER AND WEAKER.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE CWA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY AND INCREASE OUR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ONCE MORE. THE 0 TO 6KM BULK SHEAR AND CAPE
PROFILE LOOKS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ON BOTH THURSDAY AND SATURDAY FOR A
FEW STRONGER STORMS. PRETTY MUCH THE SAME STORY AS FAR AS GUIDANCE IS
CONCERNED WITH THE GFS BEING STRONGER AND SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE TROUGH. AFTER A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY
MORNING... A DRY DAY WILL LIKELY BE IN STORE FOR ALL BUT THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR
BOTH KGLD AND KMCK.

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE PERIOD FOR KGLD...BUT
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT IS SHAKY AS TO THE TRACK AND COVERAGE OF
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. MODEL TRENDS LATELY SEEM TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL...SO LEFT MENTION OUT OF THE
TAF AT THIS TIME.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...MK


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.