Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGLD 192019
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
219 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

LATEST MODEL DATA AND SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE THE WARM FRONT TO
BE NEAR HIGHWAY 24...WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA EARLY THIS EVENING. SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO PIN
DOWN WHERE STORMS WILL FIRE/MOVE SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHERE MODELS
SUGGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT TO DEVELOP DESPITE FAIRLY STOUT LOW LEVEL
CINH. AT THIS TIME HAVE THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL OVER
GREELEY/WICHITA COUNTIES WHERE NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN
SUGGESTING STORMS WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP.

DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO
FIRE ALONG ADVANCING WARM FRONT. AM THINKING HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES
IN DIAMETER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS SINCE THE 0-6KM
SHEAR IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...NEAR 30KTS...AND THE CAPE PROFILE
IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE IS MUCH BROADER THAN YESTERDAY WHEN GOLF
BALL SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED. DUE TO SLOW STORM MOVEMENT AROUND
15MPH HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

DID REMOVE THE TORNADO MENTION FROM THE HWO. LOOKING AT 0-1KM EHI
AND SHEAR...BOTH SHOW A LOW POSSIBILITY OF THE ENVIRONMENT BEING
SUITABLE FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER CANNOT NOT RULE OUT A
POSSIBILITY OF ONE DEVELOPING ALONG THE WARM FRONT...BUT DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO KEEP THE MENTION IN ANY PUBLIC PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NEAR FLAGLER TO
LEOTI THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST TOWARD THE KS/NE
BORDER BY 18Z CONTINUING NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA BY 00Z. FOR
TONIGHT BROAD SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED. AS FAR AS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...PLUME OF BETTER MONSOONAL (700-300) MOISTURE
STARTS TO INFRINGE ON THE FAR WEST/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY
12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP SOME SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIP FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST AS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT SHOULD BE DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S IN EASTERN COLORADO...MID 90S TO NEAR 100 EAST OF THE
STATE LINE. LOWS IN THE 60S. A FEW 70 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTON AND HILL CITY AREAS.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 1.25 TO 1.60 INCHES MOVES OVER THE AREA DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITHIN THE PLUME WILL BE A
FEW WEATHER DISTURBANCES THAT COULD PRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE BETTER CHANCES IN THE VICINITY OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO LOW
90S IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH MID TO AROUND 100 EAST OF THE STATE
LINE. LOWS AGAIN IN THE 60S EXCEPT A FEW LOW 70S FROM NORTON TO
HILL CITY.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...GENERAL IDEA IS FOR MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. DIFFERENCES APPEAR WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF
INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW BUT BEST GUESS IS
THAT A LULL IN PRECIP ACTIVITY EXISTS THURSDAY MORNING WITH AN
INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S IN EASTERN COLORADO
WITH MID TO UPPER 90S EAST OF THE STATE LINE. LOWS IN THE 60S
EXCEPT AROUND 70 IN HILL CITY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

BLOCKY PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH H5
RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SLOWLY TRANSITIONING
TO THE SE US. UPSTREAM A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
ACROSS THE WESTERN US...WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND SEVERAL FRONTAL
PASSAGES HELPING TO COOL THE AIR MASS OVER OUR CWA BY THIS WEEKEND.
PLUME OF MONSOONAL PACIFIC MOISTURE AND GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVECT THROUGH MID-UPPER LEVELS BETWEEN THE MID-UPPER RIDGE AND
TROUGH INTO OUR CWA. AS A RESULT PWAT VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS/VORT MAXES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FLOW AND CONTINUE TO BRING
SHOTS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIODS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY
TRANSITION EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT EVENTUALLY DECREASING IN
COVERAGE...BEFORE REDEVELOPING THURSDAY. DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEER
IS ACTUALLY QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH VALUES IN EXCESS OF 40KT OVER THE
CWA...AND COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY IT LOOKS LIKE WE COULD
SEE ANOTHER SHOT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HAIL/WIND BEING THE MAIN
EXPECTED IMPACTS AT THIS POINT CONSIDERING THE SHEER PROFILES AND
HIGHER LCLS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIGHT SOUTH AND EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND STALL ACROSS THE CWA...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE AIR MASS TO
COOL SLIGHTLY...THOUGH HIGHS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST
LOCATIONS (VALUES IN THE 90S).

FRIDAY-TUESDAY...A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND OVER THE CWA LATER THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGH
TEMPS RETURNING TO AT MOST SEASONAL VALUES IN THE MID 80S BY
SUNDAY...AND DEPENDING ON PRECIP/CLOUD COVER WE COULD SEE TEMPS
COOL OFF MORE THAN THIS. PRECIP CHANCES ALSO INCREASE AS THIS
FRONT STALLS AND AN ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEST PRECIP SIGNAL (SUPPORTED BY
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE) IS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN I
HAVE LIKELY POPS IN PLACE. I COULD ACTUALLY SEE UN NEEDING TO BUMP
UP POPS AND POSSIBLY LOWER TEMPS SUNDAY-TUESDAY AS WE GET A LITTLE
MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES. FOR
NOW I DID MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES FROM CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 18Z TAFS. WARM FRONT JUST SOUTH OF
KGLD WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...MOVING
INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY EARLY EVENING. SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS
EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT. AT THIS TIME BELIEVE THE STORM COVERAGE
WILL BE TOO SPARSE TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TAF FOR EITHER
SITE. GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND LARGE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES
IN DIAMETER WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE HAIL MORE LIKELY
ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OVERNIGHT A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...STALLING
OVER THE AREA TOMORROW. ANTICIPATE STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. EAST OF THE TROUGH
SOUTH WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH LIGHT WINDS TO THE WEST.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JTL



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.