Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 262008

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
208 PM MDT Wed Jul 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 200 PM MDT Wed Jul 26 2017

Cold front has cleared the forecast area and continues to move
south. Thunderstorm chances tonight will be tied to post frontal
upslope into the higher terrain of northeast Colorado, with
perhaps some help aloft from weak shortwave energy rotating
around the ridge. Storms will initiate along the Palmer Divide and
move east-southeast with the mean flow, which is very weak. They
will also be moving into an increasingly moist environment with
precipitable water values of greater than 1.5 inches in western
Kansas. The combination of slow storm motions and anomalous
moisture content may lead to locally heave rainfall. The main
threat will be along and south of Highway 40. Storms will linger
through the overnight and into Thursday morning, gradually
weakening through that time, ending by late Thursday morning.
There might be some patchy fog around Thursday morning as well
with the light upslope surface winds and high dew points.

The models are dry for Thursday afternoon as the upper ridge
strengthens and the mean flow turns more southward. Any storms
that develop on the Palmer Divide Thursday afternoon should move
south rather than east into our area. High temperatures will be in
the middle to upper 80s, near normal for this time of year.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 205 AM MDT Wed Jul 26 2017

No significant changes from last night`s discussion. The models
still show an upper level ridge amplifying over the Rockies and
placing the region under a northwest upper level flow. At the same
time monsoonal moisture builds back into the region and a series of
shortwaves looks to traverse the periphery of the ridge throughout
the period. This will produce a chance of showers and thunderstorms
each afternoon/evening with Saturday night looking to have the best
chance of precipitation. Temperatures during this period look to
maintain near normal.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1118 AM MDT Wed Jul 26 2017

Low clouds have been slow to erode today in the post frontal
upslope environment, but with surface heating should see ceilings
reach VFR by mid afternoon at both KGLD and KMCK. Tonight, low
ceilings will again be the main issue, with light upslope winds
and good low level moisture, ceilings will begin to lower with at
least MVFR after midnight and possibly IFR around dawn Thursday
morning. Some patchy fog will also be possible Thursday morning.




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