Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 050515
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1115 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE FROM
YESTERDAY WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND THE TROUGH OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA.  A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE
CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE PLAINS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.  AT THE
SURFACE A DRY LINE WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN COLORADO...JUST WEST OF
THE TR-STATE AREA.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON THE SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT NOW
OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST.  AM EXPECTING THESE
STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA AROUND MID AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA A WEAKER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH.  THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED STORMS
BEFORE LATE AFTERNOON.  STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TODAY DUE TO MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1500-2000J/KG AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 40KTS.  HOWEVER AM THINKING THE LARGE CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS OF 50 MB OR MORE AND MIXED LAYER CIN OF 30-40J/KG
WILL KEEP AN SEVERE STORMS FAIRLY SPOTTY.  THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

TONIGHT THE STORMS OVER COLORADO WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST INTO
KANSAS.  BY THE LATE EVENING LIFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL DECLINE AS IT MOVES EAST OF HIGHWAY 25.  IN ADDITION THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT.  WITH THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMING
LESS SUITABLE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP OR CONTINUE...EXPECT STORM
COVERAGE TO DISSIPATE AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST.

BASED ON THE NEAR TERM MODELS THE MAJORITY OF THE STORM ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WHERE A COMPACT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL TRACK.  A COUPLE OF THE MODELS WERE SUGGESTING THIS
COMPACT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WOULD DIVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA.  HOWEVER
HAVE A HARD TIME BELIEVING THIS SINCE A SOUTHWARD TRACK WOULD GO
INTO THE SOUTHEAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL FLOW.

SUNDAY WILL BE DRY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY AND WARMER AS THE DRY
LINE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING A WARMER AIR MASS WITH IT.
WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE IN DURING THE EVENING.  WITH A DRY ENVIRONMENT
IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DO NOT EXPECT ANY STORMS TO DEVELOP
OR MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE IN DURING THE
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT MONDAY...BASED ON
LATEST GFS/NAM/SREF RUNS...TIMING OF FROPA THRU THE CWA HAS SLOWED.
MODELS DO SHOW SURFACE BOUNDARY STARTING TREK THRU THE REGION BY 00Z
MONDAY IN NE COLORADO...FOLLOWED BY 700MB TROUGH BETWEEN 06Z-12Z
MONDAY. THIS TIMEFRAME LOOKS TO BE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER AIDED BY
DYNAMICS OF TROUGH...WITH LINGERING PRECIPITATION THRU THE DAY
MONDAY AS FRONT REMAINS OVER EASTERN ZONES THRU 00Z TUESDAY. HIGH
PW/S VALUES STILL PERSIST AHEAD OF FRONT...BUT HAVE SHIFTED
ENHANCEMENT IN RW TO +RW TO COINCIDE WITH ARRIVAL OF MID LEVEL
TROUGH. WARMEST LOWS THRU THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL OCCUR EARLY ON
AS FRONT BEGINS SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA. LOOKING FOR NUMBERS TO RANGE
FROM LOWS 60S WEST TO NEAR 70F EAST. DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S
ON MONDAY...WILL PROVIDE BELOW NORMAL VALUES AIDED BY SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING SOUTH.

FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AN
INCREASING WARMING TREND WITH CHANCE FOR RW/TRW FOR MUCH OF
TIME...IS EXPECTED. H5 RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...COMBINED WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO INCREASE AS WEEK PROGRESSES WITH WSW FLOW.
ALSO...SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL WORK AROUND THE THE LOW...MOVE THRU
THE ROCKIES OVER THE NORTHERN RIM OF THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THESE WILL COMBINE WITH LEE SIDE TROUGHS TO GIVE
AREA CHANCES FOR CONVECTION. BEST CHANCES AT THIS TIME LEANING
TOWARDS THE WED/WED NIGHT TIMEFRAME. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE GOING TO VARY
FROM AROUND 80F TUESDAY UP TO THE MID AND UPPER 90S FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK TERMINALS. CURRENTLY MONITORING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND WELL OUTSIDE OF BOTH
TERMINALS VICINITY...AND GUIDANCE/RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THIS
REMAINING SOUTH. SOME GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA MOVING SOUTHEAST TO NEAR KMCK BY 12Z.
CONFIDENCE STILL TOO LOW AS MODELS HAVE BEEN OVERLY AGGRESSIVE
WITH COVERAGE THIS EVENING...AND HRRR SHOWS THIS REMAINING
NORTHEAST. WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION DURING THE EARLY TAF PERIOD.
BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARRIVE SUNDAY EVENING AS COLD FRONT
MOVES OVER BOTH TERMINALS. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SHOWING GOOD
LIKELIHOOD OF IMPACT AT BOTH TERMINALS...THOUGH THERE ARE REASONS
TO QUESTION COVERAGE. I INTRODUCED VCTS AS A START...AND WE CAN
FINE TUNE WITH SUBSEQUENT UPDATES.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS AROUND
30KT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GUSTS WILL DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET...THEN WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST THEN
WEST BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...DR


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