Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 080840
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
140 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

HIGH AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE AXIS CENTERED ALONG THE WEST COAST NORTH
INTO CANADA IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST TOWARD LAS
VEGAS NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS
IN THE 850-500MB LAYER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING OUT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY MOVE
IN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.

FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES.

LATEST NAM/GFS 850MB WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER IN THE
40-50KT RANGE AND LOCAL WIND GUST PROGRAM WOULD SUPPORT GUSTS OF 50-
55KTS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE THERE IS ONLY ABOUT 5MB OF
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. MAV/MEN/LAMP GUIDANCE AS WELL AS
THE BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS ALL SUPPORT GUSTS GENERALLY IN THE 30 TO 35
MPH RANGE. THIS MAY BE BECAUSE OF THE EXTENSIVE SNOWPACK THAT
REMAINS OVER THE AREA WHICH SHOULD PREVENT FULL MIXING IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND PREVENT STRONGER WINDS JUST OFF THE
SURFACE TO MIX DOWN. FOR TUESDAY WINDS ALOFT DECREASE A BIT AND AM
ONLY EXPECTING BREEZY CONDITIONS AT BEST.

BASED ON YESTERDAYS 850MB TEMPERATURES AM SHOOTING FOR HIGHS IN THE
MID 30S TO MID 40S...WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHERN GREELEY AND WICHITA
COUNTIES WHERE SNOWPACK DOESNT EXIST. HOWEVER...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED COOLER AIR MOVING OFF THE SNOWPACK TO THE NORTH OF THESE
COUNTIES MAY CAUSE READINGS TO BE A FEW DEGREES UNDER WHATS
CURRENTLY FORECAST. LOWS TONIGHT UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S.

TUESDAYS 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM ABOUT 5-8F WHICH WOULD SUPPORT LOW
TO MID 40S EAST (MCCOOK TO HILL CITY) AND UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
ELSEWHERE...WARMEST IN GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES. LOW
TEMPERATURES AGAIN IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

ON WEDNESDAY MUCH WARMER AIR MOVES IN AND UNDER FULL MIXING COULD
SUPPORT LOW TO UPPER 60S. WE`LL HAVE SOME LINGERING SNOWPACK FOR
MANY WHICH WILL PREVENT FULL MIXING TO OCCUR. WILL BLEND BIAS
CORRECTED GRIDS WITH PARTIAL MIXING AT 850MB TO COME UP WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 EAST AND 60-65 ACROSS THE FAR WEST DOWN
TO TRIBUNE AND LEOTI. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH LOW TO
UPPER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH
LITTLE MOVEMENT FROM THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN UNTIL THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE ONLY CHANGE HAS BEEN TO DELAY THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THIS COMING WEEKEND ONE MORE DAY.

TUESDAY A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.  HIGH TEMPERATURES
THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL.  DRY CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE DRY LAMINAR NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW.

TUESDAY WILL BE BREEZY AS THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALLOW THE STRONGER
LOW LEVEL WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE.  AM STILL ANTICIPATING
THE SNOWFIELD TO HAVE ENOUGH OF A COOLING EFFECT TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT
OF MIXING.  HOWEVER IF THE SNOWFIELD DECREASES FASTER AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS STRONGER...THE WINDS WILL BE HIGHER
THAN FORECAST.  CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE WIND STRENGTH WILL BE SIMILAR
TO TODAY.

NEXT SUNDAY ALSO LOOKS TO BE BREEZY BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SHORT WAVE AS THE TROUGH FLATTENS THE RIDGE AND MOVES
ONTO THE PLAINS.  CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY
WILL BE DRY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 140 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

FOR KGLD AND KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. BOTH TERMINALS WILL
EXPERIENCE WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED
AT 20-25KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35KTS. AROUND 23Z OR 00Z (TUESDAY) WINDS
WILL FALL AT OR JUST BELOW 12KTS. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WINDS
LOOK TO BACK A BIT TO THE WEST AND/OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT SPEEDS
AROUND 10KTS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...99


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