Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 191848
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1248 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH IS STRENGTHING TODAY...PRODUCING GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH LINE ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO...NORTHWEST KANSAS...AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...WHILE WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST COLORADO ARE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. THIS TROUGH LINE WILL MIGRATE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT AS A CLOSED LOW CENTER WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY.

EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN THE NORTHEAST AS
THE TAIL END OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS NEBRASKA. THE
GFS IS THE PRIMARY PRODUCER OF PRECIPITATION WHILE THE ECMWF AND
NAM ARE LESS IMPRESSIVE AND KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH A DRYER SOLUTION...BUT WITH THE BOUNDARY
LAYER BECOMING SATURATED...ESPECIALLY IN THE CONVERGENT AREA NEAR
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...HAVE PUT IN AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT.

THEN DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SETS UP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN IT`S VICINITY...AND CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE
PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

GOING INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND ON SATURDAY...SFC FRONT STILL
DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS...BUT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHWARD.
INITIALLY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND FRONT...HIGHEST POPS
WILL BE EAST...BUT SHIFT TO ALL OF CWA AS DAYTIME HEATING WORKS INTO
THE RW/TRW PROCESS. WILL SHOW HIGHEST POPS FOR PRECIP AFT 18Z
SATURDAY...TAPERING FROM THE NORTH AS BOUNDARY SETTLES JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA BY 00Z SUN. REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL LINGER SOUTH OF THE
REGION UP INTO EASTERN COLORADO. WK 925/850MB LOW OVER THE EASTERN
ROCKIES...COMBINED WITH ESE FLOW FROM SFC RIDGE OVER CENTRAL
PLAINS...WILL KEEP ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER SOME RW/TRW. SO
HAVE KEPT SL CHANCE POPS FOR SUN/SUN NGT WITH BEST CHANCES OVER
YUMA/KIT CARSON/CHEYENNE COUNTIES. LOW MAY TRY TO SHIFT EASTWARD
SUNDAY NIGHT...PUTTING WESTERN KS ZONES NEAR A SL CHANCE FOR /RW/TRW
OVERNIGHT. HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL START IN THE LOW 80S
SATURDAY...DOWN TO THE 70S AIDED BY COOLER AIR WITH RIDGE TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S.

MODEST UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY MONDAY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT EVOLVES FROM A DEEP
CLOSED LOW IN/NEAR CALIFORNIA OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE ENCROACHING
ON THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY. SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD REMAIN
DOMINATE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY BUT INCREASING FORCING
ALOFT...STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND
DEEPENING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN
THE DAY. INSTABILITY HAS TRENDED UPWARD IN THE LAST FEW RUNS WITH
STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOWN IN GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTRIBUTING TO LOW/MODERATE CAPE. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH ONLY
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION SHOULD
LIMIT THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES CONSIDERABLY MORE COMPLICATED BY
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS IS WHEN GEFS
SPREAD BECOMES QUITE LARGE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY IS BELOW AVERAGE. THE AXIS OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LINGERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS IT ELONGATES WITH MOST OF THE
ENERGY SHIFTING NORTHEAST. BY THURSDAY BOTH MODELS SHOW A WEAK
CLOSED LOW FORMING AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SOMEWHERE OVER THE
SOUTHERN OR CENTRAL PLAINS...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF
HAS TRENDED AWAY FROM THIS. WITH THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY HAVE SIMPLY
TRENDED THE CONSENSUS/CONSISTENCY BLEND TOWARD CLIMO FOR POPS FOR A
COUPLE OF PERIODS LATE IN THE EXTENDED UNTIL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
CONVERGES ON A SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

KEPT CONDITIONS AT MCK AND GLD VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH-NORTH EAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWING A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER 15Z WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT LATER IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...JN/BRB
AVIATION...LOCKHART


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