Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 271710
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1010 AM MST SAT DEC 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 AM MST SAT DEC 27 2014

THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.  UPPER FLOW WILL
BECOME WESTERLY ON SUNDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH DIGS SOUTH FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY AND THEN SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.

SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH SUNDAY.  POPS WILL BE
NIL TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.  DYNAMICS AND H8-7 LAYER MEAN RH INCREASE
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST FA.
POPS INCREASE TO CHANCE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS VARY ON
TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND POSSIBLY 3 TO 4 OVER EASTERN COLORADO.  BEST
DYNAMICS APPEAR TO BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO SO WILL KEEP POPS HIGHER
THERE.  WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH MONDAY WILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW
WHERE THERE ARE HIGHER AMOUNTS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD RISE TO THE UPPER 20S AND THEN INTO
THE LOWER 30S SUNDAY.  THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE TEENS MONDAY.  LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS. LOW
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 5 BELOW TO 2 ABOVE.

WIND CHILL VALUES MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS WILL GET BITTERLY
COLD. WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED BOTH NIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM MST SAT DEC 27 2014

LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC
AIR SETTLES INTO THE REGION. SOUNDINGS ARE ENTIRELY -12C OR COLDER
SO THERE WILL BE NO THREAT OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION. SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT HOWEVER. ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS ARE RELATIVELY
LIGHT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY (-15F) OR WARNING (-25F) CRITERIA WILL
LIKELY BE REACHED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SHORTWAVE RIDGING
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND SOME
MODEST WARMING BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LATEST RUN OF
THE GFS BRINGS THE CLOSED LOW OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE IN
THE WEEK A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH...BUT ECMWF STILL HAS IT SOUTH SO
WILL ONLY CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW AT THIS POINT. ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THAT SYSTEM TO START NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST SAT DEC 27 2014

KGLD...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEST/NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10KTS
TAF ISSUANCE FORECAST TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 6KTS BY 00Z.
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT A WEST/SOUTHWEST WIND NEAR 10KTS
EXPECTED BEFORE BACKING OFF A BIT DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. SKC
CONDITIONS AT TAF ISSUANCE WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS
THIS EVENING THEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
MORNING.

KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY
FROM THE WEST OR WEST/SOUTHWEST 10KTS OR LESS. SKC CONDITIONS AT
TAF ISSUANCE WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING
THEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...99



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