Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 201134

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
434 AM MST Mon Nov 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 358 AM MST Mon Nov 20 2017

Main forecast issue will be fire weather concerns for today. Minor
secondary concern is if area will see any precipitation later
tonight into early Tuesday morning. Satellite showing an amplified
flow across the Pacific. This transitions to a broad ridge/fast
westerly flow across the country. Very dry air mass in place through
mid levels. Air mass has also warmer over the last 24 hours.

Models started out fine at mid and upper levels. Only minor issues
was the output being a little too low with the height field over the
region. Ukmet and the Canadian were doing a little better than the
rest on the low level thermal field.

Today/tonight...Left front quadrant of a near 160 knot jet will
begin affecting the western half of the area late in the afternoon.
Then it remains near to just south and west of the area with jet
axis centered over Colorado. Key for today is how much/thick the
cirrus will be which impacts the mixing/temperatures. For the
discussion todays fire weather concern, please refer to the fire
weather section below.

Large shield of cirrus has to been over the northwest and north
central portion of the country. Have been monitor trends on this
cloud cover and comparing to the latest model data. Trends since
around midnight has been for the cirrus to thin/warm as it
progresses east and south from its place of origin. Have seen this
happen before with cirrus in northwest flow aloft. The more
aggressive Gfs and Ecmwf are too high with the rh while the Canadian
and Nam are closer to reality.

So at this time am not expecting a thick/dense enough cirrus shield
to hinder the warmup. With warm air advection and downslope winds
strengthening and continuing through the day, am expecting a good
warm up. 2 meter temperatures are cooler with the warm MOS about 5
degrees warmer. This agrees with the progged 850 mb temperatures. 2
meters were too cool yesterday with the MOS closer. So raised maxes
toward these warmer values.

Again models bringing a slug mid level moisture later tonight with a
dry layer expected from 700 mb down. More 00z data produced very
light precipitation than yesterday. However, the 06z output cut back
on the those very low amounts. With the jet and brief mid level
forcing would not be surprised to see some sprinkles or flurries
depending on the temperatures. However this is low probability, will
not insert anything in, and will brief the day shift on this.

Strong cold front moves in later tonight which is slightly faster
than what was shown yesterday. Increasing clouds and downslope winds
in advance of the front will make for mild low temperatures.

Tuesday/Tuesday night...Strong jet axis moves slowly across the area
and looks to be east of the area late in the afternoon to early
evening. The above mentioned moisture moves through in the morning.
That and the cold air advection will make for a much cooler day.
What the blend gave me looks reasonable and did not change.
Cold front moves through early in the day. Gradient and decent 3
hour pressure rises support at least breezy conditions.

Wednesday/Wednesday night...Strong ridging aloft builds into the
central and western portion of the country. So plentiful sunshine
and light downslope winds will allow for a good warmup. Again what
the blend gave me looked reasonable and did not change.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 210 AM MST Mon Nov 20 2017

The weather pattern during the extended period continues to be dry
as the region remains under the influence of a upper level ridge
located over the Rockies. On Thanksgiving expect above normal
temperatures as the highs look to reach around 70.

By Friday night, a shortwave trough will move along the periphery of
the ridge, along with an associated surface cold front. This will
produce cooler temperatures (highs in the middle 50s to around 60)
for the weekend and into the first part of next week as an upper
level low over the eastern CONUS will keep the ridge slightly further


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 424 AM MST Mon Nov 20 2017

Vfr conditions expected through the period. For Kgld, the winds
will be shifting back and forth and being variable in speed.
Through the day the west southwest to west winds will be in the 9
to 14 knot range. Late in the afternoon they decrease to around 7
knots then go back to west at about the same speed in advance of a
cold front. Around 05z the winds will shift to the northwest and
increase through the rest of the period to near 13 knots.

For Kmck, the winds will start out southwest at near 6 knots then
shift to the west during the mid morning and increase into the
near 10 knots. Those winds will continue through the evening.
Around midnight, those winds will shift to the northwest at around
14 knots. Those winds continue through the end of the period.


Issued at 358 AM MST Mon Nov 20 2017

For today...per the discussion above, believe there will be more sun
and mixing today than what the models indicate. Very low dewpoints
and westerly to near 25 mph will create critical fire weather
conditions for Yuma, Dundy, and Cheyenne county Kansas. Therefore
upgraded the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning from 11 am MST
to 5 pm MST.

Those very low dewpoints to progress further south and east from the
warning area. However, the wind field is not as strong. So did not
expand the highlight but will need to be monitored closely.


Issued at 358 AM MST Mon Nov 20 2017

Records that will be threatened today

Goodland.....75 set in 1955
Hill City....73 set in 2003


KS...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 6 PM CST this evening for

CO...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this
     afternoon for COZ252.

NE...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this
     afternoon for NEZ079.



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