Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 230928

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
228 AM MST Thu Feb 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 216 AM MST Thu Feb 23 2017

Across the Tri State region this morning...temps are ranging from
the mid 30s to the mid 40s as the area currently lies north of a
frontal boundary. The placement of this front...combined with high
pressure to our north and a surface low over southern Colorado is
giving the area a mixed sky cover. With clear skies currently over
western zones and mostly cloudy to cloudy conditions elsewhere as
stratus works south from Nebraska ahead of the surface ridge...and
mid/high cloud works across much of Kansas. There is also a general
ENE surface flow over the area ahead of the ridge.

For today on thru Friday will be the surface low over
southern Colorado along with the frontal boundary draped over the
area...that will place the key roles for the wx over the region. The
low over Colorado is expected to shift eastward along the boundary
during the day today shifting east of the CWA late tonight into
Friday. As the low moves east the front will meander northward into
the CWA splitting the area along the I-70 corridor.

Temps are going to be warm enough initially for much of the CWA to
allow for rainshowers to develop. By the afternoon hrs with the low
over western Kansas...instability N and E of the low will trigger
some isolated t-storms. Best chances will occur over eastern zones
where SPC currently has portions of the east in Marginal Risk for
severe wx.

As the day progresses this afternoon...winds will begin to shift on
the backside of the low...allowing for colder air to infiltrate the the area a change over to a rw/sw mix and eventually sw
as the evening hrs come about. Latest model guidance has increased
the amount of qpf for much of the northern CWA during this timeframe
and with decent CAA into the area...have increased snow totals.
Primary focus for accum will remain north of I-70 especially near
the KS/NE border where 1-2" is possible...down to 0.5" or less the
further south you go. Snow will taper off from west to east during
the day Friday before ending. By Friday night on thru Saturday night
high pressure returns over the area for dry conditions.

Other concerns for the Thursday to Friday night period will be Fire
Wx and strong winds.

First off...south of the frontal boundary thru the day...region will
remain mostly dry with lower RH readings versus northern locales.
Thinking the placement of the front will allow for the southern tier
to remain under Red Flag conditions so have continued warning...but
have dropped the Fire Weather Watch for the next tier of counties
along I-70. These areas may briefly hit criteria but not for the 3-
hr expected period for a warning.

Strong wind conditions will also ensue with the passage of this
system and across the CWA Friday on the backside of the exiting low.
Looking for gusts into the 30-40mph range with some locally higher
amounts near 45 mph possible.

Overall for temps...the CWA for today will see a north to south
orientation for highs and will be dependent on where the front sets
up...but upper 30s to near 40F up north to transition to low 60s
south is the best bet at this time. Cold air in place for Friday
with highs only in the upper 20s north to the mid 30s south...but by
Saturday...much of the CWA will trend upward into mostly the lower
to mid 40s. Overnight lows will mainly range in the teens to low 20s
at best. With these cold temps at night...and the expected
winds...wind chill readings could drop into the single numbers above
zero for Thursday/Friday nights.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 227 AM MST Thu Feb 23 2017

The pattern for the extended period looks to be mostly dry with
closer to normal temperatures.

High pressure will be the main influencing factor expect for
Tuesday. On Tuesday there is a slight chance of showers due to a
possible frontal system impacting the High plains. The models
indicating a frontal system developing over the Texas panhandle and
moving northeast over the High Plains. This system should stay
mostly to the east of western Kansas however... if the track is more
westward from what the current models are showing... then we will
see a greater chance of precipitation.

After Tuesday high pressure will build back over the region for the
rest of the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1041 PM MST Wed Feb 22 2017

New guidance is now indicating that the front will be further
south than earlier guidance. Therefore worsening will start sooner
and also be further south than previous forecast. For Kgld...ifr
conditions are expected to develop near 12-13z and last until 16z.
At 16z conditions will become mvfr and continue through the rest
of the period. From 16z to 20z the southeast winds will be near 15
knots with gusts to near 23 knots. Those winds will shift to the
northeast at 20z and increase to 20 knots with gusts to 28 knots.
At 23z the winds will shift to the north at 20 knots with gusts to
30 knots.

For Kmck...From 09z to 15z ifr conditions and east winds of 18
knots with gusts to 25 knots are expected at the site. From 15z to
21z mvfr conditions and east winds of near 20 knots with gusts
approaching 30 knots are expected. From 21z through the end of
period ifr conditions north to northeast winds of near 20 knots
with gusts to near 30 knots can be expected.


KS...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MST /noon CST/ this morning to 6 PM
     MST /7 PM CST/ this evening for KSZ027>029-041-042.

CO...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM MST this
     evening for COZ254.



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