Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 260902
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
302 AM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN SHIFT
EAST INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY MONDAY. FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST
BEHIND THE RIDGE MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTERLY
FLOW TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST NEAR THE KS/CO BORDER
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS.

PLAN TO GO WITH HIGH CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES THROUGH.  STORMS SHOULD INITIATE
NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA
THIS EVENING.  THERE IS GOOD FORCING, HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND
ENOUGH SHEAR FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.  THIS REPEATS ITSELF AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SHEAR IS NOT QUITE AS HIGH. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL IMPACT THE FA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER, HIGHEST POPS SHOULD BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES NEAR THE
FRONT.  CHANCE POPS LOOK GOOD FOR THAT EVENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT.

BOUNDARY LAYER RH IS HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING.  OBSERVATIONS NEARBY
ARE REPORTING FOG.  THE STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND 15Z.

HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA SHOULD BE MET IN THE EAST DUE TO TEMPERATURES
NEAR 100.  PLAN TO CONTINUE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY.  MAX TEMPERATURES
TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 90S IN EASTERN COLORADO TO NEAR 100
IN THE EAST.  ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY AS
TEMPERATURES GET HOTTER IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100.  LOWER TO
MID 90S ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.  MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND MONDAY
NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.  COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD MODELS SHOW AN AXIS OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND EASTERN CANADA AND
AN SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL PRODUCE COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES... HIGHS IN THE 80S... AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA...
FOR THE TRI STATE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND... AS THE SYSTEMS... THAT PRODUCED THE
BRIEF COOL SPELL... CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND INFLUENCE THE
PLAINS. ALONG WITH A LEE TROUGH... DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE... WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN WITH HIGHS
REACHING BACK UP INTO THE 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015

KGLD...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
(COMPARED TO EARLIER MODEL DATA) IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE COMING
IN FROM THE EAST. AT PRESENT TIME JUST REACHED IFR CIGS. OUTSIDE
OF CURRENT TIME THOUGHT THE BEST CHANCE FOR VLIFR CIGS FROM 11Z-
15Z PLUS OR MINUS AN HOUR. FROM 16Z-20Z JUST A FEW MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST UNDER 10KTS. FROM 21Z-03Z
WILL BE WATCHING AN ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE TERMINAL. LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE.
WITH VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE IFR
VISIBILITIES IF THEY WERE TO GO OVER THE TERMINAL. AFTER 04Z
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OUT OF THE TERMINAL AREA.

KMCK...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHEAST FROM 09Z-15Z IFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAF. FROM 16Z-00Z A FAIRLY QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED
WHILE WE AWAIT POSSIBLE ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVING TOWARD THE
TERMINAL FROM THE WEST. IT APPEARS THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL REACH
THE TERMINAL IN THE 01Z-05Z TIMEFRAME WITH GUSTY WINDS AND VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL THE PRIMARY THREATS. LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE. WITH
VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AVAILABLE VISIBILITIES COULD BE
LOWERED INTO IFR/VLIFR CATEGORY FOR A SHORT PERIOD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     KSZ004-016-029.

CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...99


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