Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 151831

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1131 AM MST Wed Nov 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 255 AM MST Wed Nov 15 2017

The persistence that has prevailed over the forecast area the
past couple of days has changed as a cold front pushed through the
northern plains earlier this evening. As a result, today`s highs
will be cooler and drier than yesterday leaving us in the 50s
across our CWA.

The Pacific trough will continue to deepen on Thursday into
Friday, causing the winds over our area to shift west-
southwesterly. This will advect drier and warmer conditions which
may cause some fire weather criteria to be met on Friday. It is
possible our daily max temperature records will be broken for our
eastern counties on Thursday and southern counties on Friday.

Compared to previous model output runs, the FROPA has trended a
slower projection than before, with the system moving over our
area Friday night. Expecting some rain showers at first followed
by mixed wintry precipitation as temperatures drop below freezing.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 229 AM MST Wed Nov 15 2017

Northwest flow aloft will prevail on Saturday and Sunday in the wake
of Friday`s cold front. High pressure will remain to our southwest
with a deep trough situated to the east. H5 ridging will gradually
flatten as we head into Monday with upper flow becoming more
westerly. H7 shortwaves will develop in the lee of the central
Rockies; however, dry weather will prevail in an environment of
dominant subsidence going into Tuesday.

The variable strength of a H5 ridge, situated off of the southern
California coast, will influence the pattern going into Wednesday.
Currently, guidance is pushing another cold front through the CWA
early Wednesday morning with a slight chance of precipitation during
this period. There will be very little moisture to work with thus
widespread precipitation is not anticipated. Northwest flow aloft
will follow the front, keeping us in a dry and active pattern going


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM MST Wed Nov 15 2017

VFR expected at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. High
pressure at the surface and aloft will result in mostly sunny
skies and light surface winds.




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