Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 262029

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
229 PM MDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 229 PM MDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Across the forecast area this afternoon...skies are mainly cloudy
with a few breaks showing up over portions of the CWA. The shortwave
bringing the veil of low cloud to the area is moving slowly across
extreme SW Kansas at this time...with a continued slow trudge
eastward for the rest of the afternoon into the evening hrs.
Temperatures across the area have upticked a few degrees since this
morning...with all locales in the 40s. With the CWA being on the
north edge of the passing system...showers still continue to
pinwheel thru the CWA. There have been a few lightning strikes with
these passing will be continuing a mention of until 03z

Going into the shortwave and associated precip band
shifts eastward away from the forecast expect a slow
clearing trend into Monday morning. High pressure does begin to
shift east to replace the exiting system. As it does so...with
skies clearing out...winds will also become more light and
variable. With this and the abundant low level moisture in place
from the past few expect fog to develop overnight into
Monday morning. Have trended wording to show patchy fog at
first...but as more of the region clear out after 06z
Monday...have brought in areas of fog. Overnight lows will drop
into the low 30s. Some locales could see near 30F overnight...and
with moisture on roadways...monitoring for slick roadways will
have to occur.

For Monday...looking for fog to dissipate/burn off by the mid-morning
hrs under full sunshine as surface ridge continues to build over the
area. Dry conditions expected for the remainder of the day. Current
expected conditions will have daytime highs top off in the mid
60s for the entire CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 206 AM MDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Wednesday and Thursday: Much better model agreement compared to
yesterday at this time with regards to a cut off low that will
traverse the region to our south. The low remains nearly stacked
from H5 to H7 with an axis of instability stretching from southeast
to northwest ahead of it. Ongoing widespread showers and maybe a
thunderstorm or two are expected through the day on Wednesday, into
Wednesday night and into Thursday. We could see a brief change over
to snow in the eastern Colorado counties before changing back to
rain after sunrise on Thursday. Overall, light to moderate showers
will prevail both days with initial QPF amounts near to just over
one inch, especially in areas south if Interstate 70. PW in the
region will be in the 0.70in to 0.80in range with fully saturated
profiles both days. Winds with this system will become gusty mainly
on Wednesday with the better chances of 30 plus mph wind gusts
remaining in the southwestern portions of the CWA. Temperatures will
reach the lower 50s on Wednesday with upper 50s expected Thursday.
Lows will fall into the lower to middle 30s.

Friday through Sunday: Dry weather is expected Friday in the wake of
the Wed/Thurs system. Shortwave ridging, albeit short lived, will
prevail through the day as another system approaches from the west.
This next system will bring another chance of rain to the region on
Saturday and Sunday; however, it will be located a bit further
southwest than the last system with much lower rainfall totals
expected. Highs Friday and Saturday will be near to slightly above
average with widespread upper 50s to lower 60s expected. Lows will
fall into the middle to upper 30s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1126 AM MDT Sun Mar 26 2017

For KGLD...MVFR/IFR mix thru 23z Sunday with ceilings BKN005-025.
6sm in light showers and fog. After 23z...VFR thru 06z Monday.
From 06z-14z...MVFR/IFR fog with visibility down to a range of 1
1/2sm to 5sm at times. By 14z Monday...VFR. Winds...ENE around
10kts thru 06z Monday with a transition to WSW around 5-10kts by
12z Monday.

For KMCK...MVFR/IFR mix thru 03z Monday with ceilings BKN008-015
and light showers or sprinkles. From 03z-08z VFR. From 08z to 15z
Monday MVFR/IFR mix in fog with visibility 1 1/2sm to 3sm at
times. VFR from 15z onward. Winds ENE around 10kts thru 03z
Monday...then becoming light and variable.




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