Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 221906

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
106 PM MDT Sat Oct 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 106 PM MDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Across the Tri State Region this afternoon...sunny skies abound with
temperatures ranging mainly in the 70s with a few lower 80s in some
locales. Winds are mainly southerly for central and eastern portions
of the forecast area...which coincidentally sits out ahead of a
boundary over eastern Colorado. Western zones are seeing WSW flow
depending on positioning to the aforementioned trough/boundary.

For tonight...this boundary will traverse the area bringing on a
wind shift to west overnight and eventually northerly by 12z Sunday.
Lack of moisture will keep CWA dry overnight. CAA behind this trough
will set temps up overnight to drop into the mid 30s to low
40s...coldest west.

Going into Sunday...surface high pressure building south into the
plains region thru the day...combined with an amplifying H5/H7
ridge...will set the region up for another dry day with above normal
highs ranging in the lower to mid 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 225 AM MDT Sat Oct 22 2016

The axis of a ridge will be in place just east of the CWA on
Tuesday with southwest flow at the surface and aloft. H5
shortwave will push into the area as we head into the afternoon
with dry air in place across the vast majority of the CWA with
slightly better moisture in the far eastern counties. There could
be a few thunderstorms in the easternmost counties with most of
the activity remaining well east of the region. Flow will shift
northwesterly as the shortwave passes to the east with more dry
air being advected into the area.

Northwest flow once more becomes southwesterly as we head into
Thursday with a ridge building into central and western Texas.
Several weak shortwaves will rapidly move across the CWA along the
northwest periphery of the ridge with no PoPs expected with the
passage of these disturbances. As we head into Friday and Saturday,
a deep trough and area of low pressure will move northeastward out
of the southwestern States. The GFS weakens this feature rapidly
as we head into Saturday; however, there is a bit of
disagreement with regards to the timing and strength of the low.

Temperatures during the extended period will remain above average
with highs in the 70s and lows generally in the 40s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1120 AM MDT Sat Oct 22 2016


Precip/Wx....None expected.

Winds........For KGLD...South 10-20kts thru 20z...then
West/Southwest 5-10kts thru 09z Sunday. 09z-15z Sunday...Northwest
around 10kts. 15z Sunday onward...North around 10kts. For
KMCK...Southeast 10-20kts thru 00z Sunday...then light/variable.
By 05z Sunday West/Northwest around 5 kts becoming North around
10kts by 11z Sunday.


Issued at 106 PM MDT Sat Oct 22 2016

A warm and dry air mass in place will result in RH values dropping
to near 15 percent or lower across the western half of our CWA this
afternoon. Winds up to 25 mph possible this afternoon that could
last 1-2hr. At this point only 1 hr of possible critical fire
weather conditions may occur this afternoon.




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