Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
FXUS63 KGLD 021945
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1245 PM MST Fri Dec 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 257 AM MST Fri Dec 2 2016
Main forecast concern will be chance of precipitation tonight.
Satellite showing an amplified and active flow from the Pacific into
North America. Broad trough encompasses much of the country as a
complex upper trough begins to deepen and split over the western
portion of the country.
Models started out well at mid levels with the Gfs, Ecmwf, and
Canadian doing a little better. Models started out fine on the low
level thermal field but were a little too cold. Overall the Gfs,
Canadian, Ecmwf, and Sref were starting out the best.
Today/tonight...cloud cover has been slower to increase. Now it
looks like the thickest cloud cover will not occur until the
afternoon. As a result of the slower arrival, overnight temperatures
have dropped more than previously expected. All in all the far
eastern section should be able to warm up the longest. Made slight
adjustments based on the latest data.
For tonight the newer data is slower and further south with the lift
and deeper moisture. Theta-e lapse rates are not very good again.
Area is also on the wrong side of the jet. Also the mid level
lift/frontogenesis is very organized. I went ahead pulled the pops
further south with the highest pops in the extreme south and also
having the highest pops after midnight. It only looks .01 or .02 of
qpf with the phase being all snow.
Saturday/Saturday night...With the slower arrival of tonights
precipitation, the precipitation is expected to linger into the
morning with very light amounts. Due to cloud cover and some cold
air advection, temperatures will be cooler than todays. What the
blend gave me looks reasonable. The nighttime forecast also looks in
good shape and did not change.
Sunday/Sunday night...the next question is how much do we warm up.
Should be plenty of sun and deep/dry air mass in westerly flow aloft.
Surface winds will be southwest to west and then shift toward the
south in the afternoon as the lee trough starts developing. High
temperatures look to range from the middle 40s to the lower 50s
which will feel very warm compared to what is coming in.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 1245 PM MST Fri Dec 2 2016
Going into the extended period...mid level shortwave moving across
the Central/Northern plains will continue trek eastward going into
the evening hours Saturday. This is going to allow the CWA to see
surface ridging to build across the central portion of the
country...along w/ mid level zonal flow...for the remainder of the
weekend into next Monday morning.
For Monday night on thru Thursday...the CWA will be on track to see
cold arctic air work into the region due to the passage of a couple
of shortwaves and an arctic front. With current model runs...first
shortwave Monday night into Tuesday is a quick mover...and will
result in light snowfall. Models do differ on timing/strength of
second system Tuesday night into Wednesday with latest ECMWF
stronger than the GFS counterpart. Easterly upslope flow does play a
stronger part in snow accum for the ECMWF...w/ lesser effects in the
GFS...and potential snow accum will vary greatly for the two as a
result. Precip will end going into the evening on Wednesday with
high pressure returning for the remainder of the forecast.
With the latest model guidance numbers...the CWA will be looking at
a 3-4" snow accum potential for the aforementioned 48-hr period. In
addition to the snowfall...wind gusts reaching the 15-25 mph range
will cause blowing snow so have added to going forecast.
For temps...the arrival of the arctic front into the region will
bring first good taste of winter conditions into the tri State
region. Locales will see daytime highs in the 40s for Sun-Mon give
way to highs only in the 20s for Tues-Wed. The return of high
pressure for end of the upcoming week will allow for upward trend to
ensue with highs returning to the 30-40F range...especially for
Friday. Overnight lows will however have a more dramtic shift versus
the daytime component. Teens to low 20s for overnight lows expected
on either side of the Tues-Wed night timeframe...but single numbers
to near 10F for Tues-Wed nights. On top of the expected cold
temps...winds gusting near the 15-20 mph range could give the CWA
wind chill readings near 0F for Tuesday night...and 0F to -15F
Wednesday night. Thursday night could also see some near 0F readings
until WSW flow kicks in towards Friday morning.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1036 AM MST Fri Dec 2 2016
Conditions at MCK and GLD will start out VFR and remain that way
through about 10Z. After that time it appears low level moisture
being advected in the return flow from the southern high plains
into the central high plains region will produce lower cloud
heights and possible lowering of visibilities with fog.
At 10Z GLD will transition to MVFR and then IFR after 12Z mainly
due to increasing cloud cover and lowering ceilings. There will
also likely be fog after 12Z that continues to near the end of the
TAF period. Beyond 18Z, expect ceilings and visibilities to
At MCK by 12Z, increasing cloud cover and lowering ceilings should
produce MVFR conditions and occasionally IFR conditions with
visibilities also possibly going to 3 miles or below. Conditions
will be slower to improve at MCK.