Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
FXUS63 KGLD 240748
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
148 AM MDT WED AUG 24 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 130 PM MDT Tue Aug 23 2016
An upper level low pressure center currently located over north
central Arizona is generating showers and thunderstorms in the four
corners area. This low and its associated moisture is forecast to
move northeast tonight into the Colorado front range. Not expecting
precipitation to reach the west and southwest portions of our area
til about midnight then a bit further northeast through sunrise
Wednesday morning. For the afternoon hours the low and its moisture
are expected to move slowly east continuing the chance for showers
and thunderstorms for much of the area.
North to northeast winds around 10 mph or so tonight will veer to
the northeast at 15 to 20 mph with some higher gusts during the day
Low temperatures tonight in the low to mid 50s for far eastern
Colorado with mid 50s to low 60s east of the border. High
temperatures Wednesday will be tricky given the expected cloud cover
and precipitation. Currently shooting for low to mid 70s in far
eastern Colorado with mid 70s to low 80s elsewhere.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 148 AM MDT Wed Aug 24 2016
Unsettled weather is anticipated during the long term, with
thunderstorm chances nearly persisting throughout.
At the start of the period, upper level high pressure continues over
the southeastern CONUS while a trough enters the northern Plains,
bringing southwesterly flow aloft to the region. On Saturday, the
trough advances towards the Upper Midwest, generating thunderstorm
chances for the area as southwest flow filters monsoonal moisture
northward. Upper level ridging builds in behind the system as it
passes off to the east Sunday through Tuesday. Precipitation chances
persist throughout the rest of the extended, yet decrease as heights
rise, with the ridge bringing drier conditions to the area midweek.
Temperatures remain fairly constant during the period, with highs in
the 80s and lows in the 50s to low 60s.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1115 PM MDT Tue Aug 23 2016
VFR conditions should prevail at both KGLD and KMCK terminals
through the TAF period, with main chance for sub VFR conditions
tied to shower or thunderstorm activity. If a moderate shower were
to move over either terminal vis may decrease to 3-6 sm range.
Several rounds of scattered (possibly numerous) showers and
embedded thunderstorms will transition from the southwest to the
northeast through the TAF period during the TAF period with best
coverage tending to be at KGLD based on current model consensus.
A cold front has already moved past both terminals, and winds have
shifted to the north and northeast. By late in the TAF period wind
direction may shift to more of an easterly direction. Prevailing
winds will generally be around or less than 12kt.