Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 182320
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
420 PM MST Thu Jan 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 145 PM MST Thu Jan 18 2018

The main weather story through Saturday will be continuation of
warming temperatures ahead of an approaching storm system. Cirrus
clouds will move across the area from time to time with densities
hard to forecast at best. Low temperatures tonight in the low to mid
20s with highs Friday in the 60s, possibly a few low 70s. For Friday
night lows in the low 20s to around 30. Cooler air moves in from the
north Saturday with high temperatures ranging from the mid 40s north
to mid 60s south.

One or two sites may reach or exceed record high temperature
tomorrow (Friday), see climate section below for a list of
records.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 130 PM MST Thu Jan 18 2018

Overview (Sun/Sun Night):
A shortwave trough (situated roughly 1000 miles WNW of the central
CA coast at 20Z this afternoon) is progged to dig ESE ashore the
central/southern CA coast Friday night. This feature is progged to
amplify into an upper level low as it progresses east to the
4-Corners region on Saturday, with further amplification expected
as it emerges east of the Rockies onto the Central Plains. An
attendant surface low is progged to develop in southeast CO and
southwest KS early Sunday morning, tracking northeast through
eastern KS (Sunday afternoon) into central IA (Sunday night).

Guidance:
The 12Z operational GFS/ECMWF are in good agreement with regard to
the evolution of the aforementioned upper wave/cyclone over the
Central Plains Sun/Sun night. Both models suggest that the Tri-
State region will be located along the southern periphery of a
developing deformation band on the western periphery of a
deepening sfc cyclone Sunday afternoon/evening, with liquid
equivalent precip ranging from 0.25-0.30" near the KS/NE/CO
border to < 0.10" in southern portions (Tribune/Leoti). A PERFECT
PROG of these solutions would yield predominately snow (short
period of fzdz/fzra possible at onset along/east of Hwy 83), with
potential snow accum ranging from 3-5" along the NE/CO/KS border,
1-3" invof the I-70 corridor, and 1" or less in the far south.
Strong NW winds (gusting to 45-55 mph) would be expected late Sun
afternoon and evening in assoc/w pressure rises on the western
periphery of the deepening/departing sfc cyclone and enhanced
mixing associated with low-level cold advection coincident with
lingering precipitation /evap cooling/.

Confidence:
Despite good agreement among the operational GFS/ECMWF model
runs, Forecast Confidence Remains Very Low with regard to
precipitation distribution/amounts given that the Tri-State region
is progged to be on the southern periphery of a developing
deformation band (tight precip gradient) attendant a cyclone that
will not develop for another ~72 hours and whose parent upper
level wave remains at least 1000mi offshore the Pacific coast this
afternoon.

Summary:
With all of the above in mind, potential impacts Sun into Sun
night include:

1) Brief period of FZDZ/FZRA invof I-70 in northwest KS Sunday AM
2) Several inches of snow accumulation along/north of I-70
3) NW winds gusting to 45-55 mph Sun evening
4) Blowing snow

Monday-Thursday:
At this time, expect dry conditions and large diurnal temperature
ranges in assoc/w a period of NW flow aloft in the wake of the
amplifying upper low progressing toward the Great Lakes, followed
by shortwave ridging aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 420 PM MST Thu Jan 18 2018

VFR conditions prevail at both TAF sites this evening with some high
cirrus persisting into the evening. Southwest winds will continue
with a trend toward the west and eventually northwest with speeds
generally in the 5 to 10 knot range.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...TL



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