Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
FXUS63 KGLD 171919
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
119 PM MDT Mon Oct 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Late Afternoon and Tonight)
Issued at 1244 PM MDT Mon Oct 17 2016
18Z Water Vapor Imagery/RAP analysis indicated strong zonal flow
aloft across the Rockies and adjacent Tri-state area. Area of
mountain cirrus remained firmly over the CWA through the
morning...but IR imagery indicating cloud tops warming fairly
rapidly and as a result expect cloud deck to slowly break up this
afternoon and evening. At the sfc...leading edge of cold front
hanging across southern CWA and was apparent on KGLD radar
imagery. Temps about 10 degrees cooler behind this front...which
have held things in the upper 70s and low 80s.
Main concern for this afternoon and evening is winds and fire
weather threat. Another surge of cooler air working into northeast
Colorado with large area of 30 to 40 kt winds occurring behind
it. Despite the questionable fire wx conditions right now...this
significant wind shift will likely create critical fire wx
conditions as it passes this afternoon and evening and will let
warning continue despite concerns. Winds aloft really crank up
tonight just above the sfc in the northern CWA with rapid update
models suggesting 50kts above the sfc inversion but below stronger
inversion aloft. General consensus is sfc inversion will be too
strong to allow deep mixing at this point and given the overall
pattern that does seem reasonable. For the time being have raised
gusts several knots tonight before 04z...but confidence in really
strong winds mixing down too low to include at this point in time.
Otherwise...as cooler air settles into the area expect temps to
dip into the upper 30s or low 40s.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 143 AM MDT Mon Oct 17 2016
Not much to say for this period, with PoPs near zero and clear skies
prevailing throughout the extended. Surface high pressure builds
over the region from the western CONUS behind the system impacting
the region earlier in the week, keeping temperatures cool on
Thursday. The large area of high pressure continues south towards
Mexico, blocking return moisture. Meanwhile, an upper trough pushes
east of the Plains as upper level ridging builds to the west. This
brings a warming trend to the area Friday and Saturday as the ridge
progresses east. However, a cold front looks to move through on
Sunday, slightly cooling temperatures off once again. Do not expect
any precipitation with the frontal passage due to limited moisture.
Temperatures start out in the 60s on Thursday before gradually
warming into the mid 70s to low 80s by Saturday. A decrease into the
low to mid 70s is currently anticipated for Sunday. Lows follow a
similar trend, warming from the 30s Thursday night to the upper 30s
to mid 40s for Saturday night.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday )
Issued at 1145 AM MDT Mon Oct 17 2016
VFR conditions will prevail for nex 24 hours. Winds will increase
out of the north after 22z and remain gusty through the night.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for
CO...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ252>254.
NE...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for