000
FXUS63 KGLD 090524
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1024 PM MST SAT MAR 8 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM MST SAT MAR 8 2014

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER
EASTERN COLORADO AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WITH A
SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  AT THE SURFACE A HIGH
PRESSURE WAS BUILDING OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA FROM COLORADO.

THIS EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXPAND SOUTH AND EAST OVER
THE TRI-STATE AREA.  BEHIND THE RIDGE AXIS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS LATER TONIGHT CAUSING THE WESTERLY WINDS TO BECOME
BREEZY.

SUNDAY THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE
MORNING UNTIL A LEE-SIDE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO DEVELOPS
ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT.  THE SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL ALLOW WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO MOVE OVER THE
AREA.  MEANWHILE SOUNDINGS SHOW THE ENVIRONMENT MIXING TO 800MB
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ALLOW WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.  THE ADDED INGREDIENT OF LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES MAY LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR SOME
COUNTIES ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON.  FOR MORE
INFORMATION SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM MST SAT MAR 8 2014

A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST AS A TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  FLOW
WILL THEN BE ZONAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE
OVER EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EAST TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF H8-7 LAYER MEAN MOISTURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
DRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. POPS WILL BE NIL FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST FA
TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN SPREAD FURTHER EAST INTO THE FA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN
THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING WITH THIS AREA EXPANDING ACROSS THE FA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH THE COLD
FRONT. PLAN TO CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHTS.  MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY SHOULD RISE TO THE LOWER
70S. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH READINGS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S, SOME LOWER 50S WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES.

IN THE EXTENDED...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST.  SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST THURSDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN
COLORADO. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE FA TUESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW TO CHANGE TO ALL SNOW.  SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LIGHT.  OTHERWISE, LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL
PRECLUDE ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE UPPER 40S WEDNESDAY TO THE UPPER
50S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL START IN THE
MID 20S TUESDAY NIGHT MODERATING TO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1024 PM MST SAT MAR 8 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS
IS MOVING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND ROCKY MOUNTAINS PRESENTLY AND
SHOULD PASS OVER THE KGLD AND KMCK TAF SITES THIS MORNING. MODELS
INDICATE THIS CIRRUS SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
AND REDEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. FORECAST GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES THAT WINDS
MAY BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON BUT GUSTS COULD BE SOMEWHAT
SPORADIC IN NATURE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 217 PM MST SAT MAR 8 2014

SUNDAY AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS AT OR NEAR 25 MPH.  LOOKING AT THE GREENNESS
DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL...COUNTIES ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER REALLY JUMP
OUT FOR VERY DRY FUELS.  DECIDED TO GO WITH A WATCH FOR COUNTIES
EAST OF HITCHCOCK AND RAWLINS AT THIS POINT SINCE THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY THAT THE WIND GUSTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL MEET
CRITERIA.  THE STRONGER WINDS ARE JUST NORTH OF THIS AREA...SO A
SMALL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPART ON FIRE BEHAVIOR.
WOULD LIKE THE NEXT SHIFT TO TAKE ONE MORE LOOK TO SEE IF A WARNING
IS NEEDED.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR KSZ002>004.

CO...NONE.
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR NEZ080-081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...RRH
FIRE WEATHER...JTL