Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 150400

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
900 PM MST Tue Nov 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 130 PM MST Tue Nov 14 2017

Low clouds and fog have been slow to burn off today in eastern six
counties, as a result temperatures have not warmed and dew point
depressions remain low. May see fog redevelop rather early this
evening in those areas and persist until a cold front sweeps
through overnight bringing lower dew points. Breezy northwest
winds will accompany frontal passage through the night,
diminishing around sunrise. Wednesday will be sunny with
temperatures near normal, lower to middle 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 149 PM MST Tue Nov 14 2017

A progressive pattern remains in place from Wednesday night through
early next week across the Central High Plains, with a series of
mid/upper level shortwave troughs/ridges moving primarily across the
Northern Plains. Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will be cutoff
from our CWA, so while we may have brief period of forcing with
fropas or passing disturbances overall chances for any beneficial
precipitation will be minimal to nill. ECMWF is still showing
potential for rain or snow Friday night behind a cold frontal
passage, however other guidance keeps conditions predominantly dry.
If we do see precipitation as ECMWF indicates it would be light in
nature. There is a little less consistency between models by early
next week, however overall trend is towards rising heights and dry

Regarding temperatures: Above normal high temperatures are expected
Thursday through Friday, and there is a possibility of near record
high temperatures Friday if the front slows down and WAA increases
as indicated by GEM/ECMWF (20-21C H85 temps). Temperatures should
then be closer to seasonal normals through the remaining periods,
though models could be under doing warming early next week based on
rising heights advertised in GFS/GEM.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 900 PM MST Tue Nov 14 2017

KGLD, vfr conditions expected through the period. Gusty northwest
winds expected through about 10z before decreasing to 10kts
through 18z then variable around 19z. Winds become southerly
around 6kts by 22z then very slowly increase through the rest of
the taf period possibly flirting with 12kts at the very end.

KMCK, vfr conditions expected through the period. Gusty northwest
winds expected through 09z before decreasing toward 10kts through
18z then variable through 01z. After 02z a light southeast wind
around 5kts expected.




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