402
FXUS63 KGLD 261112
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
512 AM MDT MON SEP 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 200 AM MDT Mon Sep 26 2016

Early morning satellite imagery and RAP upper level analysis shows
large scale ridging in place across the western US, with a trough
over the northern Mississippi River Valley. NW flow aloft is
primarily holding influence across the Central High Plains, with
ridging beginning to build across the Central Rockies. Strong
subsidence/dry layer is is apparent on WV imagery and is centered
across our CWA. At the surface 1027-1028 MB high pressure is in
place over our CWA.

Regarding Frost Advisory this morning: Tds have decreased into the
low to mid 30s and temps have declined to near 40F (upper 30s at a
few locations). We still have another 5hr of radiational cooling,
so it still looks like we are in line for possible frost
conditions across our west a maybe a few isolated locations in our
north and east. How widespread is yet to be seen. Plan is to let
the current frost advisory run it course, and will refresh the
statement with the morning forecast package.

Today-Wednesday Night: Large scale ridging will transition over
our CWA and a very stable/dry air mass will keep conditions dry
through these periods. Rising heights aloft and WAA through the
lower levels should support temperatures trending upwards. This
translates to mid to upper 70s today (near normal) and low to mid
80s Tuesday (slightly above normal). A shortwave rounding the
closed low over the Great Lakes will kick a backdoor cold front
towards the High Plains. This will be a dry frontal passage, but
will trend temps back for Wed by 5F compared to Tuesday. I could
see highs being closer to seasonal values in the 70s, but
consensus is still favoring highs around 80F. Lows will tend to be
in the 40s to near 50F (a few cold spots in the west possibly in
the upper 30s).

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 200 AM MDT Mon Sep 26 2016

Dry conditions are expected to persist into the extended period
before precipitation chances return heading into the weekend.
Temperatures remain fairly steady in the 70s to low 80s throughout
the forecast.

At the start of the period, a closed low remains over the eastern
half of the country while a ridge of high pressure centers over the
Plains. The ridge starts to break down some late Thursday into
Friday as it moves eastward ahead of the next upper trough advancing
onto the west coast. There are still some differences with the large
scale pattern, particularly when handling the eastern low. However,
the GFS has slowed down and is coming into better agreement with the
ECMWF for the latter half of the week. This has pushed back the
onset of precipitation for the region, with shower and thunderstorm
chances now returning to the High Plains Friday night and lasting
through Sunday as weak shortwaves move across the area through the
southwesterly flow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 512 AM MDT Mon Sep 26 2016

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period at KGLD and
KMCK. High pressure will remain over both terminals, and winds
will remain 10kt or less from a westerly direction through the TAF
period.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Frost Advisory until 7 AM MDT /8 AM CDT/ this morning for
KSZ001-013-027-041.

CO...Frost Advisory until 7 AM MDT this morning for COZ090>092.

NE...Frost Advisory until 7 AM MDT this morning for NEZ079.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...DR