Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 241946

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1246 PM MST Fri Feb 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 231 AM MST Fri Feb 24 2017

Across the forecast area this morning...skies remain cloudy as the
region continues to remain under the influence of the wrap-around
circulation from the exiting low affecting the region yesterday.
Temperatures are ranging in the upper teens thru the 20s with a
steady northerly wind...gusting to 20 to 30mph at times.

Local/regional radar still showing light snow working south into
western portions of the CWA. For at least the morning hours...will
continue to highlight higher pops for light snow mainly for locales
north of Interstate 70...but transitioning from west to east before
lifting out of the area going into the afternoon hrs. Some light
accum can not be ruled out in the aforementioned areas...but less
than an inch. South of the Interstate...going for a slight chance of
snow showers tapering off to the south to nothing. Expecting cloudy
conditions to persist thru the day despite snowfall ending. CAA will
persist over the region thru the day...and will be looking for
daytime highs to only top off in the upper 20s north down to the mid
30s across southern zones.

Going into tonight...expect skies to begin to clear out along with
winds to slacken as surface ridging builds over the region. Went
close to model guidance with lows in the lower teens to near
10F...but this will have to be monitored for next shift as it may
not be cold enough. Some guidance showing single numbers above zero.
Wind chill readings will be in a zero to 10 above range.

For the upcoming weekend...continuing model trend of dry across the
region as H5 ridging/zonal flow becomes prominent. Weak shortwave
does work thru the flow Saturday night but comes thru dry. Highs
over the weekend will range in the upper 30s thru the mid
40s...coldest over NW zones. Overnight lows will be in the teens to
lower 20s. Wind chill readings for many locales over the weekend
will be in the single numbers above zero.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 1244 PM MST Fri Feb 24 2017

Surface to 700mb flow will remain slightly split Saturday night
through Wednesday before trending more zonal as we head into the end
of next week. A deep synoptic low will develop in northern Canada
late Sunday in to Monday with lobes of low pressure rotating around
the axis, moving southeastward out of western Canada and into the
northern Plains. These H7 lows will extend weak troughs southward on
Monday, Wednesday, and Friday. There is quite a bit of difference in
how the GFS and ECMWF handle the synoptic low, with the GFS giving a
solution where the low is in north-central Canada and the ECMWF
settling for a location in the Hudson Bay region. GFS solutions are
consistently dry with less in the way of cold air moving into the
region thanks to a more zonal scenario across the central Plains.
The ECMWF on the other hand gives the CWA a more northwesterly fetch
aloft thus giving us a better chance of a slightly cooler pattern
and better precipitation chances. Currently, the best chance of rain
and snow will occur on Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning,
along and ahead of a weak trough, with the ECMWF being the favorable
model for this solution. Any precipitation will be very light due to
lack of antecedent moisture advection and weak isentropic lift.

High temperatures Sunday will remain in the lower to middle 40s from
northwest to southeast. Warmer highs in the 50s will prevail on
Sunday with cooler air moving back into the region on Monday
trailing a trough. Near normal temperatures in the middle to upper
40s are expected on Wednesday and Thursday. Overnight lows will fall
into the teens to lower 20s on Saturday night with lower to middle
20s expected Sunday night onward through Thursday night.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1019 AM MST Fri Feb 24 2017

Occasional flurries will continue at both KGLD and KMCk through
mid afternoon, gradually ending by late afternoon. Some brief,
minor visibility restrictions may be possible, but the overall
trend is improving as the upper level system moves out. Ceilings
will also lift by late afternoon with VFR expected at both terminals
by 23-00z.




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