Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 291946
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
146 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL MOVING SLOWLY THRU THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THIS MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFF THE ROCKIES
FROM THE WEST. CLEARING/DRYING TREND SET TO ENSUE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AS RIDGE BUILDS EAST. MODELS DO BRING DOWN
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/SFC TROUGH OFF THE ROCKIES GOING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MOVE ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION. LATEST MODEL
RUNS DO HINT AT A BRIEF CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE UP OVER THE
AREA BUT SHUTS OFF QUICKLY BY 12Z SATURDAY AS SYSTEM RUNS INTO THE
SFC RIDGE TO THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY SUNDAY MORNING. BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON ANOTHER STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVES IN WITH A COLD
FRONT PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AM
EXPECTING THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR MONDAY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 IN FAR
EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY IN THE LOW 80S IN YUMA COUNTY TO THE MID 90S FROM HILL
CITY TO GOVE AND TRIBUNE AND POINTS SOUTH. DEPENDING ON THE
FRONTAL TIMING THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA MAY HIT THEIR HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES
THE REST OF THE DAY BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S
EXCEPT AROUND 60 FROM HILL CITY TO LEOTI AND POINTS SOUTH/EAST.
FOR MONDAY EXPECT LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY SHIFTS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH FRIDAY.

NOT TERRIBLY CONVINCED THAT PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT
AS A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE.
HOWEVER...WITH ECMWF/GFS PRODUCING SOME MODEST QPF CANT IGNORE
SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ON THURSDAY MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND SOUTHWEST WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA. MAY SEE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AS A RESULT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE THURSDAY
NIGHT NEAR THE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ON FRIDAY
FORECAST AREA BACK INTO THE MONSOONAL FLOW WITH MOISTURE INCREASING
WITH A WEATHER DISTURBANCE DURING THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING...MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA WITH LOWER IF NOT LITTLE CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND
EAST. LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIP BY 00Z SATURDAY MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.

LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD NEAR NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT WITH ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL TUESDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MCK VICINITY OVERNIGHT BETWEEN
ABOUT 03Z AND 09Z...LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST AS A LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE EASTERN
COLORADO BORDER SATURDAY MORNING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...LOCKHART


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