Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 192024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
224 PM MDT Wed Jul 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 113 PM MDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Large scale ridge remains in place across the Plains, with main
monsoonal plume further northwest than it has been the last 3 days.

Regarding thunderstorm chances: Mean upper level jet stream and axis
of better deep moisture is well northwest of our CWA and
subsidence/much more stable air is in place. An axis of 1500 J/KG ML
CAPE may develop near the surface trough in eastern Colorado, but
lack of organized forcing and a strong CAP will likely preclude any
thunderstorm development this afternoon and tonight. A few models
show activity in the higher terrain in CO spreading east, but
quickly falling apart before reaching our far northwest CWA. Some
models are showing a slightly better precip signal by late Thursday
afternoon in far western Yuma county. Concerns with CAP strength and
unfavorable track from region of initation lowered confidence enough
to hold off on introduction of thunderstorms.

Regarding temperatures/Heat Advisory: There are some questions to
location of possible pre frontal trough axis near our north, but
even then we are in line for another day of 100+ degree temps, and
Tds should remain near our above advisory criteria in our
north/northeast. Heat advisory criteria is already occurring, with
temp trends faster/higher than yesterday. Models are actually
showing a slight upward trend in temps aloft, so we may be a few
decrees warmer Thursday than today. Overnight lows are remaining
very warm in similar locations, and heat index values at night might
not drop below 75 for man locations in our east. After coordination
the decision was made to extend current advisory (same locations)
through tonight and into Thursday evening.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 221 PM MDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Thursday night-Saturday: With strong upper level ridging in place,
very hot conditions will persist across the area Thursday night
and Friday, especially for the northeastern half of the CWA. After
talking with neighbors, decided not to issue Heat Advisory at
this time. Current forecast shows portions of Norton and Graham
Counties not dropping below 75 degrees Thursday night and
widespread areas with heat indices of 105+ degrees Friday. Cold
front approaches the area Friday afternoon. Will see a chance of
thunderstorms, mainly from Friday night through Saturday
afternoon, some which may become severe. Greatest threat looks to
be damaging winds at this time.

Sunday-Monday: Still some question as to how far south the cold
front progresses. Models appear to bring it towards the southern
portions of the area through Sunday and stall it out. Most areas
will finally see temperatures return to average levels. With
boundary still lingering in the area and shortwave trough
approaching, CWA will see a chance of showers and thunderstorms
both days.

Tuesday-Wednesday: Frontal boundary will lift back to the
northeast as a warm front. Upper level ridging builds across the
Central Plains. Temperatures warm through the period with highs
slightly above normal across the entire CWA.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1137 AM MDT Wed Jul 19 2017

For both KGLD and KMCK...Winds pick up this afternoon pushing to
12kt and greater with gusts over 20kt, predominantly from the
south. Winds should decrease below the 12kt mark near sunset at
both locations around 2Z. For clouds, with high pressure
dominating the weather, expecting clear skies or high cirrus
through the afternoon, becoming clear for the overnight.


KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for KSZ002>004-015-016.

NE...Heat Advisory until 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ Thursday for NEZ079>081.



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