Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 212348
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
548 PM MDT Fri Jul 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 227 PM MDT Fri Jul 21 2017

Latest upper air analysis shows the ridge continuing its slow
progression eastward.  Minor disturbances continue to develop along
its northwest periphery and rotate around the ridge.  At the surface
a pre-frontal trough was bisecting the Tri-State Area from southwest
to northeast.  This feature was also a moisture boundary due to dew
points falling 10-15 degrees north of the trough.  The light
convergence along the feature has allowed cumulus clouds to develop.

As the afternoon progresses lift will gradually increase over the
trough, which should allow a broken line of storms to form.  Further
west am expecting storms to begin forming west of the forecast area
and slowly build east.  By late afternoon storms will be moving into
the forecast area from the west along a weak cold front and upper
level short wave trough.  As the storms approach strong outflow
winds are likely due to the very dry nature of the environment below
the cloud base.  These winds will help speed up the passage of the
cold front.  Models are split as to where the best threat for
damaging winds will be, either over the southwest or northwest.  Due
to the storm coverage expected over the northwest half of the
forecast area, would anticipate this being the more likely area for
damaging wind gusts.  However the resulting outflow winds will
effect the west half of the forecast area. Current wind forecast is
likely underdone, but was unsure how high to go with the winds.
These winds may also spread further east than currently forecast.

This evening the storm activity will increase over the northwest
part of the forecast area as the upper level short wave trough moves
in from the west.  The biggest threat with these storms will
continue to be damaging winds.  The threat will have a short window,
only two or three hours before ending as all the storm activity
cools the environment and reduces the risk for damaging winds. Storm
activity will end an hour or so after midnight if not before.
Meanwhile the cold front will washout.

Saturday another upper level short wave trough will deepen over the
northwest corner of the forecast area in the morning.  As the day
progresses the cold front will become more defined over the northern
part of the forecast area.  During the afternoon the upper level
short wave trough will begin moving to the southeast.  As it does so
the cold front will accompany it.  These two features will cause
storm activity to spread to the southeast in the late afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 227 PM MDT Fri Jul 21 2017

Saturday night-Monday: Cold front pushes south of our area and
stalls out. Will continue to see chances for showers and
thunderstorms through the period. While the area is not highlighted
for any severe threat, some strong to severe storms will be
possible. Stalled front begins to lift out of the area from west to
east as a warm front on Monday.

Tuesday-Wednesday: Models are in a little better agreement for this
period. With upper level ridging building into the area, expect
temperatures to warm to well above normal levels. Areas in eastern
portions of the CWA will once again be in the low 100s. Will have
chance of PoPs in western areas Wednesday and Wednesday Night.

Thursday-Friday: Models differ in this period. Low confidence in any
solution at this point. Could see precipitation both days. If GFS
solution is correct, temps will continue to above normal on Thursday
before cooling some on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 541 PM MDT Fri Jul 21 2017

VFR at both TAF sites through the period. The combination of a
weak cold front and outflow from Colorado convection will result
in winds becoming northwest after around 03Z-05Z, gradually
becoming north and northeast late tonight into Saturday.
Convection developing over Colorado is expected to remain north
and west of KGLD this evening. Storms will approach KMCK this
evening but confidence not high enough to include mention in the
TAF at this time.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ002>004-015-016.

CO...NONE.
NE...Heat Advisory until 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...SME
AVIATION...DLF



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