Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 020824
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
224 AM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2015

RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS INDICATED A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE OF COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER THE FRONT RANGE
AND ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS REGION.  VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA WITH SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EAST OF HIGHWAY 283.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN PLACE...A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE WILL CREATE A SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE THAT WILL
BECOME MORE APPARENT TOWARDS 00Z TONIGHT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.
HIRES ARW AND NMM GUIDANCE BOTH DEPICT THE CONVERGENCE ZONE MOVING
EASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN THE 3Z TO 6Z TIME FRAME TONIGHT.
HIRES GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MAIN FLOW AS AN UPPER 35 TO 45 KT JET RIDES OVER TOP OF THE
RIDGE...WHICH WILL ACT TO DESTABILIZE AND HELP DRIVE THE CONVECTION
FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT.  CAPE VALUES VARY BETWEEN MODELS...WITH
RAP/GFS SHOWING UP TO 1500 J/KG...BUT HIRES ARW/NMM/NAM SHOW 2000
AND 3000 J/KG IN SOME PLACES.  BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT INDICATIVE
OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE.

AFTER THE SHORT WINDOW OF HIGH CAPE VALUES PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE...CONVECTION SHOULD TAPER OFF
AFTER 9Z.  SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL MORNING.  FOG WILL DEVELOP EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
FOR SOME LOCATIONS WITH GOOD SURFACE MOISTURE ADVECTION DUE TO SOUTH
TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...BUT WILL DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S DUE TO DEW POINTS
IN THE UPPER 50S AND THE BLANKETING CLOUD COVER.

SOUTHERLY ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...WHICH WILL
ADVECT WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE TRI
STATE AREA.  WITH WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN THE
LOWER 60S...CAPE VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.  A
SIMILAR SET UP WILL BE PRESENT FOR EASTERN COLORADO DUE TO THE
SURFACE LEE TROUGH WITH A CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG THE KANSAS/COLORADO
BORDER.  FORECAST MODELS DO NOT HAVE STRONG CONVECTION
DEPICTED...BUT GIVEN THE SET UP WITH THE CAPE SET UP...STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP IN EASTERN COLORADO FOR AT LEAST SOME OF
THE EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD MODELS STILL SHOW A WET
PATTERN AS THEY HAVE FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. ALL THE MODELS I
LOOKED AT ARE MOSTLY IN AGREEMENT AND SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL CANADA. BY SUNDAY
THE RIDGE LOOKS TO FLATTEN AND THE UPPER LOW WILL START TO MOVE
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY TUESDAY.

THIS PATTERN STILL IS PRODUCING UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION... WHICH FAVORS SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA... WHILE THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUE
TO ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO REGION.
THIS PATTERN MAY BECOME EVEN WETTER AS IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
MOISTURE... FROM THE PACIFIC... MAY START ADVECTING THROUGH THE SW
FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES.

IN GENERAL... THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
TIME FRAME FOR THE TRI STATE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2015

KGLD SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER KMCK MAY
LOWER TO MVFR AS A LINE OF STORMS MOVE THROUGH AROUND 06Z TUESDAY.
BEHIND THE STORMS, STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD MOVE INTO KMCK WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE UNTIL MID MORNING. VFR WILL RETURN TO KMCK AT
THAT TIME AND REMAIN UNTIL EARLY EVENING WHEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH PRODUCING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT KGLD
AND KMCK.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...FS



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