Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 241045
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
345 AM MST Sat Feb 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 306 AM MST Sat Feb 24 2018

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect through 11AM MST (noon
CST) today due to a wintry mix of precipitation that will continue
through mid day today.

The primary short term concerns are the potential for freezing
precipitation across mainly the southeastern half of the GLD
forecast area in addition to the potential for brief moderate to
heavy snowfall extending from Yuma county into extreme southwest
Nebraska and far northwest Kansas first thing this morning as the
progressive system currently moving across the region continues
eastward today.

The upper trough currently moving through central Colorado as an
open wave will continue to move quickly through the central high
plains region this morning and into the central plains by this
evening as the surface low swings out of eastern New Mexico and
through the panhandle region and north Texas this morning before
lifting into the plains by this evening. A lack of good cold air
advection until after the precipitation area associated with the
system moves east of the forecast area means areas of fog with
drizzle and freezing drizzle could continue this morning mainly
across the southeastern half of the forecast area. As a result,
this area could see nearly 0.10 of an inch of ice while the far
northwest sections of the forecast area could see around 4 inches
of snow during the brief time the band of heavier snowfall moves
across the northern sections of the forecast area.

Winds are also expected to increase in a band from the northwest
to the southeast across the central portion of the forecast area
in the wake of the exiting system from mid day through the
afternoon. This may produce areas of blowing and drifting snow
that could hamper travel across the region even though there is no
longer any snow falling.

As the upper trough and associated surface features move east of
the area by early afternoon, expect the airmass over the forecast
area to dry out rapidly with clearing skies expected by late
afternoon. With clearing skies overnight, temperatures may have to
be brought down a few more degrees as light winds over fresh snow
with clearing skies may allow some areas to drop to near 10
degrees above zero before higher clouds move in towards Sunday
morning.

Dry conditions with highs warming into the 40s are expected on
Sunday.

Temperatures will warm into the 50s by Monday afternoon with a
very dry airmass under weak short wave ridging aloft ahead of a
deepening lee surface trough. Gusty south to southwest winds
could develop with resulting elevated to near critical fire
weather conditions mainly south of Interstate 70 for a few hours
Monday afternoon. Will hold off on issuing any kind of highlight
for FWX at this point, but will continue to monitor developing
conditions.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 133 AM MST Sat Feb 24 2018

Dry conditions persist into Tuesday when southwesterly flow develops
aloft ahead of a deepening trough on the west coast. Meanwhile at
the surface, a weak cold front approaches the High Plains, bringing
a decrease in temperatures. The upper trough travels from southern
California to the Four Corners region Tuesday night. However,
confidence is low on the timing and track due to model differences.
At this time, this system looks to bring a slight chance for some
rain Wednesday afternoon and evening. Could see some light snow in
the evening if temperatures are cold enough. Fair weather returns
for the end of the work week as ridging builds into the Plains.

High temperatures range from the mid 40s to upper 50s on Tuesday as
the cold front pushes into the area, followed by highs in the 40s on
Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures rebound nicely into the 50s on
Friday. Lows remain in the 20s throughout the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1055 PM MST Fri Feb 23 2018

IFR-LIFR ceilings and visbys associated with stratus/fog,
freezing drizzle, and snow will prevail through ~18Z Sat. Expect
VFR conditions to return 18-21Z Saturday afternoon from west-east with
rapid clearing and NW winds increasing to 20-25 knots with gusts
up to 30-35 knots mid/late afternoon, then decreasing to ~15 knots
after sunset.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST /noon CST/ this morning
     for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST this morning for
     COZ090>092.

NE...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST /noon CST/ this morning
     for NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...VINCENT


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