Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 270900
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
300 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AS OF 3 AM CDT...2 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
OVERCAST. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. WINDS ARE
GENERALLY EAST AT 5-10 MPH. LATEST WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES
TWO BANDS OF SHOWERS PASSING OVER THE REGION. THE FIRST WAS LOCATED
FROM ROUGHLY FORT MORGAN COLORADO TO TRIBUNE AND GARDEN CITY KANSAS.
THE SECOND BAND IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND EAST OF A ST
FRANCIS TO RUSSELL SPRINGS KANSAS LINE. OVERALL...PRECIPITATION IS
LIGHT WITH RADAR ESTIMATES LESS THAN 0.1 INCHES. MOST LIKELY...
ACTUAL AMOUNTS ARE EVEN LESS AS DRIER AIR BELOW THE CLOUD BASE IS
LEADING TO EVAPORATION. AT THE SURFACE...AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN CANADA TO THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. ALOFT...
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EVIDENT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. THESE MINOR PERTURBATIONS ARE RESULTING IN THE SHOWERS. A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES.

FOR TODAY...SHOWERS PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS...MAINLY OVER
NORTHWEST KANSAS. ALL PRECIPITATION ENDS BY NOON AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS PASS AND RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS. ONCE AGAIN...DO
NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AS DRIER AIR IN THE SUB-
CLOUD LAYER IS LEADING TO PRECIPITATION EVAPORATION. IF A PRECIP
CHANGE TO SNOW OCCURS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ACCUMULATIONS AS
GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE WARM. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES A FEW
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER EAST COLORADO. HOWEVER...SOUNDING
PROFILES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE AND DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BE
UNDERWAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES LIKELY TODAY AS SOUTHWEST/DOWNSLOPE
FLOW DOMINATES. MAIN REMAINING QUESTION IS HOW FAR WEST THIS WARMER
AIR REACHES. CURRENTLY...COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EAST OF HIGHWAY
83 AS A RESULT OF LINGERING CLOUDS/SHOWERS AND A LATE ARRIVAL FOR
WARMER WESTERN AIR.

TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND...MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE REACHES ITS PEAK INTENSITY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S REMAIN THE ANTICIPATED OUTCOME. SOME FORECAST
GUIDANCE NUDGED FORECAST HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY BUT FEEL THIS GUIDANCE
IS NOT GRASPING RECENT TRENDS AND FULL EXTENT OF WARMER AIR ALOFT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...A VIGOROUS CLIPPER SYSTEM BREAKS DOWN THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AS IT MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE
HIGH PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH.
ANTICIPATE GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...LACK OF MOISTURE DOES NOT SUPPORT A SCENARIO WHERE A
WETTING RAIN WOULD OCCUR. FOR NOW...KEPT POPS BELOW ANY MENTION AND
INCLUDED SPRINKLES WORDING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BE UNDER RIDGING AND WEAK
FLOW ALOFT. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL ENCOUNTER SOME MINIMAL MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA AND PERHAPS RESULT IN
A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL COOL OFF
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL
TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK LATE IN THE WEEK AND PROVIDE BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX...ESPECIALLY DURING
NIGHT TIME HOURS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

WSR88D INDICATES A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
BAND IS SLOWLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE...BUT INTENSITY REMAINS
LIGHT. WILL INDICATE VFR CEILINGS AT KGLD. THERE MAY BRIEF
SPRINKLES AT THE SITE...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO LOWER VISIBILITIES OR
CEILINGS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLIDE EAST
THROUGH 12Z...SO SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KMCK. UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS SHOW MVFR CEILINGS IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND THIS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY 06Z. WILL
INDICATE LOWER CEILINGS AT KMCK. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AT BOTH
SITES AFTER 15Z.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND SATURDAY.
TODAY...WARM/DRY AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST AS A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVES IN. WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS
25-30 MPH POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY ONLY
REACH 20 PERCENT AND MORE LIKELY 25 PERCENT. THEREFORE...A FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHT IS NOT NEEDED. WARMER/DRIER AIR EXPECTED
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT DURING THE DAY SO ONCE AGAIN...A FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT WILL
LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED.

A MORE INTERESTING SCENARIO IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. A CLIPPER/COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6
AM MDT. BEHIND THIS FRONT...BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH
PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 10-12 MBS. DRY AIR ADVECTION ALSO
ANTICIPATED SO THERE COULD BE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...PRIMARY CONCERN IS THAT WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS
REACHED. WINDS ALOFT DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
EXITS EAST SO ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS MAY NOT SUPPORT CRITICAL WIND
GUSTS. THIS POTENTIAL THREAT NEEDS TO BE MONITORED IN LATER
FORECAST UPDATES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...MENTZER
FIRE WEATHER...RRH



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