Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 231945
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1245 PM MST Fri Feb 23 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 805 AM MST Fri Feb 23 2018

Dense fog advisory has been allowed to expire for the moment. Will
be re-evaluating as new data comes in. A few locations at 1/4sm in
freezing fog and will see how 15z model runs handle it for
possible re-issuance. Otherwise dry conditions today with highs in
the 30s. A few locations may see 40.

UPDATE Issued at 434 AM MST Fri Feb 23 2018

Update to forecast to remove Kit Carson county for Dense Fog
Advisory...but have added in KS counties along and north of I-70.
Obs across the area have been fluctuating with Advisory criteria
prompting issuance. The shrinking of the low cloud deck west
prompted removal of Kit Carson county. May adjust Advisory
coverage should cloud shield shift before 15z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 230 AM MST Fri Feb 23 2018

Across the Tri State region this morning...cloudy skies and patchy
dense fog prevail with temperatures currently ranging from the upper
teens thru the mid and upper 20s. Winds are light from the WSW.

Going into today...expecting foggy conditions to lift during the
morning hours and give way to psunny/msunny skies into the afternoon
hours.

By tonight and on thru Saturday afternoon...the main wx concern
moves over the region in the form of an upper level shortwave and
surface low moving out off the Rockies and into the Plains region.
Models have shown run-to-run consistency in its movement into the
region for the start of the weekend. While the breaks in cloud cover
this afternoon will afford temps mainly in the 30s...by tonight
temps will drop into mid teens to lower 20s for overnight lows.

The concern though in model differences will be the amount of warm
air aloft that will push into the CWA overnight into Saturday. This
will result in freezing rain mixing with snow for the event. At this
time these mixed conditions will mainly affect eastern zones...but
all locales will see some freezing precip before seeing snow.

With this...have upgraded the Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Wx
Advisory but have added the next tier of counties...leaving only the
southern 6 counties south of I-70 out of it. Expecting the Advisory
to run from 00z-18z Saturday.

Because there will be some light ice accumulation mixed with some
snowfall the Advisory has been broken into 3 sections:

Yuma...Dundy...Hitchcock and Red Willow counties seeing the most
potential snow with 3-6 inches of accum and a light glaze of ice.

Kit carson...Sherman...Cheyenne KS...Thomas and Rawlins will see
around 2-4 inches of snow with a couple hundredths of an inch of ice
accum.

Graham...Norton...Decatur and Sheridan counties will see the most
potential mix wintry conditions with 1-3 inches of snow with up to a
tenth of an inch of ice.

Locales south of I-70 will see light wintry conditions but not
enough to hit Advisory criteria at this time. This may change and be
update if track of the systems change before precip arrives.

As the wx system transitions east thru the day Saturday...areas will
see a few hours of northerly wind gusts in the 25-35 mph range
before tapering off for the overnight period.

Saturday night thru the remainder of the weekend will have dry
conditions ensue for the entire CWA.

For temps...Saturday into Sunday will see an uptrend in daytime
highs with upper 30s to the mid 40s to end the weekend. Overnight
lows will be in the teens.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 1245 PM MST Fri Feb 23 2018

Saturday night through Monday night...dry weather expected. Mid and
upper level clouds increase from west to east Saturday night then
clearing from west to east Sunday. May see some high clouds Sunday
night before they lift north and out of much of the area Monday. Low
temperatures Saturday night and Sunday night generally in the 10 to
20 degree range. High temperatures Sunday range from the upper 30s
to low 40s in far eastern Colorado to the upper 40s across the east.
For Monday low 50s in far eastern Colorado to near 60 across the
east.

Will have to watch winds Sunday afternoon. Currently expecting
speeds in the 10 to 15 mph range but could be a bit higher. Current
relative humidity forecast is for around 20 percent in Greeley and
Wichita counties. May have borderline fire weather issues if the low
humidity and a bit higher winds pan out.

A bit better chance for critical fire weather conditions to be met
generally along and south of Interstate 70 as rh values fall below
20 percent with sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph with some higher
gusts. Will address this concern in the updated fire weather
forecast and hazardous weather outlook.

For Monday night low temperatures in the mid teens west to mid/upper
20s far east. Could see some increase in high clouds across the
extreme northwest corner of the area.

Tuesday-Wednesday...There will be a slight chance for light snow
Tuesday night generally from near Trenton to Yuma and points north
as some moisture in the 850-500mb column moves in ahead of what the
GFS shows as an upper trough. This then moves across the remainder
of the area Wednesday morning. The ECMWF and GEM show a closed low
over central Arizona early moving into west Texas with no
precipitation forecast for our area. High temperatures Tuesday in
the low 40s north to mid 50s south, lows in the upper teens to low
20s. Highs on Wednesday in the upper 30s north to mid 40s south.

Thursday through Friday...dry weather expected at present time.
After morning lows in the mid teens to low 20s Thursday morning
highs should reach the mid 40s to low 50s. Lows Thursday night in
the upper teens to mid 20s with highs Friday in the upper 40s north
to upper 50s south.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 935 AM MST Fri Feb 23 2018

KGLD, vfr conditions expected from taf issuance through about 02z
with winds from the southeast 10kts or less. From 03z-16z ifr-lifr
conditions expected. Stratus with mvfr-ifr cigs expected initially
before freezing mist/fg and snow develop from 09z-16z with an east
wind around 10kts. As deeper moisture moves in associated with
weather disturbance freezing precip threat should end with light
snow likely, probably after sunrise Saturday morning. As the
system moves away from the terminal after about 17z winds become
northwest gusting around 20kts with vfr conditions returning.

KMCK, vfr conditions expected from taf issuance through about 02z
with a light northeast wind. From 03z through the rest of the
period ifr/lifr cigs/vis expected in freezing drizzle and/or light
snow as a weather disturbance moves over the terminal. Winds
generally from the east to northeast under 10kts. After 17z winds
back to the northwest under 10kts.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1245 PM MST Fri Feb 23 2018

Sunday...low confidence of critical fire weather conditions being
met generally south of a line from Kit Carson colorado to Tribune
and Leoti.

Monday...medium confidence of critical fire weather conditions
being met in the afternoon generally south of a line from near
Flagler Colorado To Hill City as humidity values fall below 20
percent and south winds gust toward 25 mph.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ this afternoon
     to 11 AM MST /noon CST/ Saturday for KSZ001>004-013>016.

CO...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM MST
     Saturday for COZ090-091.

NE...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ this afternoon
     to 11 AM MST /noon CST/ Saturday for NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...99



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