Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 262112
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
212 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED CWA ON EASTERN PERIPHERY OF 582
DM RIDGE OVER WESTERN COLORADO. TEMPERATURES HAVE RAPIDLY CLIMBED
INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE HOW MUCH WARMER THINGS GET TOMORROW
AND IF COMBINATION OF WARMTH/WIND WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF CWA.

TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL WARM ABOUT 5C BY 12Z TOMORROW AND WITH
RIDGE AXIS LIKELY KEEPING ANY MEANINGFUL CIRRUS TO THE WEST EXPECT
A STRONG WARM UP TOMORROW WITH TEMPS EASILY REACHING THE MID 70S
IN MANY LOCATIONS. MODELS SEEM TO REALLY HOLD ON TO
INVERSION...BUT WITH FULL SUN AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AM LEANING
TOWARDS A WARMER SOLUTION THAN CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS. A FEW LOW
80S READINGS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AT THIS POINT WITH SEVERAL
RECORDS IN JEOPARDY. A DEEPLY MIXED AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT WINDS IN
THE 10-20 MPH RANGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND WITH A DRIER
VERTICAL PROFILE EXPECTED...DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 20S
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. LOTS OF VARIANCE WITH RESPECT TO MOISTURE
SOLUTIONS...BUT OVERALL PATTERN IS ONE THAT WILL SUPPORT MIN RH
VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 15 PERCENT FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
DAY. WINDS WILL BE RIGHT AT CRITICAL VALUES AND CONSIDERED A FIRE
WX WATCH. HOWEVER...WITH WINDS RIGHT AT THRESHOLDS AND TENDACY TO
OVERFORECAST WIND SPEEDS IN THESE SITUATION DO NOT THINK
CONFIDENCE WARRANTS A WATCH ISSUANCE AT THIS POINT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT  A SHORTWAVE COMES
THROUGH THE FLOW AND FLATTENS THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY.  NORTHWEST FLOW
RESUMES BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT COMES THROUGH THE FLOW WEDNESDAY WILL NOT
HAVE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.  POPS
FOR WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN NIL.  WINDS BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE
MAY GUST TO 35KTS FROM LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REMAINING PERIODS, LACK OF MOISTURE AND SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL VARY FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 30S RESPECTIVELY.  MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
WILL STILL BE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 60S.  MAX TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE MID 40S.

IN THE EXTENDED...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...A RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A TROUGH IN THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST.  THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST FRIDAY AS THE PLAINS COME
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH.  THE TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE
PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESUME SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.  LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT.  A COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THIS NEXT STORM BUT
DIFFER SOME ON THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.  PLAN TO GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN INCREASE POPS
TO CHANCE SATURDAY AS THE MAIN DYNAMICS IMPACT THE AREA.  POPS WILL
THEN DECREASE TO SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM STARTS
TO EXIT.  SUBSIDENCE WILL BUILD IN SUNDAY AND MONDAY RESULTING IN
NIL POPS.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SATURDAY WHEN COOLER MID TO UPPER 30S WILL BE COMMON.  MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY COOL TO THE 20S WITH AN EXCEPTION OF
TEENS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1032 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR NEXT 24 HOURS WITH FEW HIGH CLOUDS
AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DECREASING AND BECOMING WESTERLY
OVERNIGHT. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT POTENTIAL LLWS AROUND MCK
AS WINDS INCREASE TO THE 20-25KTS RANGE AT BASE OF INVERSION WHICH
WILL BE AROUND 100 FEET OF THE SURFACE. IF WINDS DECOUPLE...COULD
SEE A PERIOD WHERE LLWS THRESHOLDS BEING MET. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
AT THIS POINT THOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THIS ISSUANCE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JRM



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