Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 230809
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
209 AM MDT Tue May 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 134 PM MDT Mon May 22 2017

Across the Tri State region this afternoon...after seeing morning
showers...especially along and south of Interstate 70 the area is
seeing a psunny/msunny mix. Added sunshine over the area allowing
for numerous cumulus to develop. Temperatures are currently ranging
mainly in the 60s with a few locales already in the 70F range. Winds
are gusting at times under a WNW surface flow.

With the CWA now north of morning clouds/precip...the area now will
see increasing clouds from the north as the afternoon progresses. A
cold front/upper level trough near the northern Nebraska
border...will push southward thru the afternoon hours on into this
evening. Enough instability across the area will trigger
convection. Loss of diurnal heating by then will diminish chances
for storms...and eventually only showers will ensue late.

Current models runs will shift bulk of precip east of the CWA by 06z
Tuesday...allowing for clearing/lower pops slowly towards Tuesday
morning. Do expect lingering cloud cover for the morning hours
Tuesday...so have kept in slight chance for -rw before going
psunny/msunny. Gradient behind this exiting system will be
tight...so do expect steady/gusty wnw wind near 30 mph to replace
lack of precip.

For temps...no strong CAA present overnight so area will see
slightly below normal lows in the lower to mid 40s. Highs Tuesday
will range in the lower to mid 60s...with temps depending on extent
of expected cloud cover thru the day.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 209 AM MDT Tue May 23 2017

Active weather persists during the extended period, with
temperatures near to below normal.

At the start of the period, a closed low spins in southern
Saskatchewan and Manitoba. The corresponding trough extends to the
southwest of the low, leaving nearly zonal flow across the High
Plains. Multiple disturbances pass through the trough during the
extended as the low gradually moves across the US/Canadian border.

On Friday, shower and thunderstorm chances increase in the afternoon
and evening, spreading into Kansas from Colorado. Decent shear and
instability could support a few severe thunderstorms. Precipitation
chances continue on Saturday as the trough progresses from the
Rockies onto the Plains. Mainly dry conditions with an occasional
slight chance for showers and thunderstorms, are forecast on Sunday
and Monday as the system pushes east. Guidance differs with the
track of this system, so will continue to monitor.

Temperatures decrease from the upper 60s/upper 70s on Friday to the
60s/low 70s on Saturday. Then highs slightly rebound and are back in
the 70s across the region by Monday. Low temperatures remain in the
mid 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1111 PM MDT Mon May 22 2017

VFR expected at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. Mid and
high clouds will persist but showers have moved out of the area
for the rest of the night. Monday will see isolated mainly
afternoon showers with another weak system in the northwest flow
aloft. Surface winds will be gusty through the day from the
northwest.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...024



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