Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 142003
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
103 PM MST Sat Jan 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1252 PM MST Sat Jan 14 2017

A winter storm is still on track to impact the region beginning this
evening with freezing rain expected to begin impacting the southern
and southeastern reaches of the CWA around sunset. There has been
a trend toward heavier sleet accumulations and less in the way of
freezing rain and ice, mainly in the northwest portions of the
CWA.

Dry air has inhibited precipitation from falling through much of the
morning and into the afternoon with only light rain reported in
Wichita and Greeley counties in northwest Kansas. Shower activity
will pick up later this afternoon as the low moves east and then
northeast into the region. The current location of the system
confirms the ECMWF as the closest global model at this time and thus
I slightly biased my timing upon this solution.

Impacts of the storm will be moderate to severe depending upon the
precipitation type. Precipitation will vary from moderate to
heavy ice accumulations in the eastern and southeastern CWA to
moderate sleet and relatively heavy snowfall in the west and
northwest. If a transition to sleet occurs sooner, we will see
lighter ice accumulations; however, current guidance is suggesting
ice amounts up to 7/10 of an inch in our eastern and southeastern
counties. If the larger ice accumulations manifest, we are looking
at potential widespread power outages and treacherous travel
conditions on area roads and highways on Sunday/Monday. Further
west, a freezing rain/sleet mix will make for hazardous travel and
isolated power outages as we head into Sunday with heavy snow
expected to inhibit travel on Monday. The sleet/freezing rain mix
will transition to sleet/snow and then to heavy snow Sunday night
and is expected to persist into Monday morning. Areas in the
eastern portions of the CWA will see this transition occur closer
to Monday morning, leading to lower snowfall amounts in this area.
Generally, we will see 4 to 6 inches of snow in the western half
of the CWA along a southwest to northeast band that will set up on
the western side of the low. Isolated amounts of up to 8 inches
are possible in areas where an earlier transition is observed.
Areas in the eastern portions of the CWA can expect amounts of 1
to 3 inches. Snowfall will end from west to east Monday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1211 PM MST Sat Jan 14 2017

For the extended period...with the upper level trough associated
with the weekend wintry wx having finally exiting the region...H5
ridging builds over the Central Plains...with lee-side trough
setting up over the front range. These will be intact until the end
of the upcoming week...as another shortwave dives into the Central
Rockies and slowly out into the Plains Region....Friday into next
Saturday.

Current model differences between the latest GFS/ECMWF exist with
GFS being a bit faster to swing system thru the area. Placement of
this system coming off the Rockies will determine P-type. Despite
these positioning differences for Friday/Saturday...the building
ridge/lee trough combo will bring another round of above normal
highs (mid 40s to low 50s) and dry conditions to the area ahead of
the end of the week system. Overnight lows midweek will range in the
20s.

Current temp trend for Tuesday may not be taking into acct the
potential wintry precip from the weekend...dampening highs for the
day with snow/sleet/ice covering the ground. A downshift in these
numbers may ensue as further model runs progress.

Overall for the next weekend system...trend is on the warmer
side(40s for highs)initially to allow for -rw to start...trending to
-sw from west to east as system lifts out of area and temps drop
towards the 20s towards sunset. Low model QPF numbers at this time
so not expecting much but maybe a few hundredths of rain...and a
dusting of snowfall. Again...subject to change if system shifts from
current track.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1028 AM MST Sat Jan 14 2017

For KGLD...mainly VFR conditions expected thru 12z Sunday with
decreasing ceilings due to approaching storm system. Looking for
ovc080-110 to drop to ovc050 during this time. Light precip will be
in the vicinity. From 12z Sunday onward...MVFR conditions worsening
to IFR by 17z Sunday. Looking for ceilings dropping from ovc030 to
ovc010...and 2-3sm in -FZRAPL. Winds...north around 5-10kts thru 22z
this afternoon then becoming ESE around 10kts.

For KMCK...mainly VFR conditions for much of the forecast period
with decreasing ceilings from ovc150 to ovc060 by 11z-15z Sunday. By
15z...MVFR conditions begin to encompass the area as light freezing
rain starts with ceilings dropping to ovc030. Conditions will worsen
after 18z. Winds...mainly light/variable thru 11z Sunday...then
becoming ESE around 5kts.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Winter Storm Warning from 3 AM MST /4 AM CST/ Sunday to 7 PM MST
     /8 PM CST/ Monday for KSZ001>003-013-014-027.

     Ice Storm Warning from 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ this afternoon to 11
     AM MST /noon CST/ Monday for KSZ004-015-016-028-029-041-042.

CO...Winter Storm Warning from 3 AM Sunday to 7 PM MST Monday for
     COZ090>092.

NE...Winter Storm Warning from 3 AM MST /4 AM CST/ Sunday to 7 PM MST
     /8 PM CST/ Monday for NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JN



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