Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 251942

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
142 PM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Issued at 1213 PM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Update to forecast sent out to remove mention of morning
wording...and to shift any remaining heavy precip that was
lingering over SE CWA away from the region. Still continuing
mention iso/sct rw/trw for rest of today. Breaks in cloud cover
allowing for rises in temps for will still hold off on
adjusting temps.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 400 AM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Today-tonight...moisture in the 700-500mb layer increases from the
northwest through sunrise before starting to exit the area to the
east/southeast during the afternoon hours as a weather disturbances
moves through. Area is under influence of right rear quad of upper
jet helping support shower and thunderstorm production. Plentiful
moisture in the 850-700mb layer and an east/southeast wind will
cause high temperatures to be cooler then previously expected.
Blending 850mb temperatures from the past several days and
mos/2m/bias corrected grids supports readings in the low to mid 70s.
Could see a few showers/isolated thunderstorms generally east of
the CO/KS border tonight. Low temperatures in the low to mid 50s.

Monday-Monday night...most of the area looks to be precipitation
free during the morning as drier air aloft moves in. During the
afternoon hours a slight increase in mid level moisture is forecast
while below 700mb moisture remains quite high per model rh. Cant
rule out some thunderstorms in the Flagler area and east of the
CO/KS border. For the nighttime hours front range convection per 700-
500mb moisture (NAM) is forecast to slide southeast into our west
and southern zones through midnight then generally out of the area
by sunrise. Afternoon temperatures in the low 80s looks good per
850mb temperatures. Low temperatures in the mid 50s to low 60s.

Tuesday-Tuesday night...southerly winds increase through the day
allowing low level moisture to stream into the area. Afternoon
temperatures rise into the low 90s supporting modest instability. A
weather disturbance is forecast to move into the area during the mid
to late afternoon hours supporting some low chance pops for
thunderstorms generally along/west of the CO/KS border. This
disturbance continues east during the night supporting a continued
chance for showers/thunderstorms. Low temperatures in the mid 50s to
around 60 in far eastern Colorado, low to upper 60s elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 141 PM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Moisture levels will increase on Tuesday ahead of a H7 shortwave
that will traverse the CWA through the afternoon. CAPE values will
climb to near 2500 J/Kg as a relatively strong theta-e boundary sets
up in eastern Colorado and moves eastward through the early
afternoon. There will be good moisture return as 850 mb winds will
be southeasterly at 45 knots (GFS) with mixing ratios increasing to
near 12 g/kg by 00Z. Deep layer shear will be greatest directly
along the boundary with values in the 35 to 50 knot range. There
will be a brief window of opportunity for severe thunderstorms to
form along this boundary during the afternoon. With the 0-1 km shear
approaching 17 to 25 knots and 0-3 km shear of 45-50 knots (GFS),
this will be a favorable environment for supercells, especially east
of the KS/CO border. Thunderstorm activity will push east through
the late afternoon and evening, moving out of the area overnight.

There will be another chance of thunderstorms on Wednesday and again
on Thursday as weak shortwaves move across the region each day.
Forcing will be quite weak on Wednesday; however, there will be a
stationary theta-e boundary in place across the easternmost counties
of the CWA which could provide a focus for strong to severe
thunderstorm development on Thursday.

A very weak cold front will move through the area late Thursday and
early Friday. Another mention of slight chc to chc PoPs are in the
forecast on Friday due to lingering weak instability. Low level
return flow will increase out of the southeast as we head into
Saturday, increasing moisture levels and instability ahead of the
next shortwave that will move across the region Saturday night and
early Sunday morning. A favorable environment will set up on
Saturday night for elevated strong convection as long as forcing
from the shortwave is sufficient. Will need to see more consistency
in the guidance before increasing PoPs beyond slgt chc to chc.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1121 AM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017

For KGLD...Looking for a VFR/MVFR mix thru the period with
BKN035-040 giving way to BKN025 by 00z Monday before becoming
scattered by 08z. VCSH thru 20z this afternoon. Winds...ESE
10-20kts thru 08z Monday...then S around 10kts.

For KMCK...Looking for VFR conditions thru the period...w/
BKN060-100. VCSH thru 20z this afternoon. Winds...ESE around 10kts
thru 05z Monday...then light/variable.




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