Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 181943

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
143 PM MDT Tue Oct 18 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1256 PM MDT Tue Oct 18 2016

This afternoon/tonight... A continued dry forecast will prevail the
rest of today and into the evening. Water vapor imagery indicates a
shortwave situated just east of the Great Basin at midday, moving
eastward into the central Rockies. HiRes model guidance is
converging upon a solution that would bring the shortwave into the
central Plains sometime early Wednesday morning. For tonight,
relatively calm winds and partly cloudy skies will allow
temperatures to fall into the middle to upper 30s in our eastern
Colorado counties and the lower 40s elsewhere.

Wednesday... The NAM, ARW, and NMM all indicate scattered
precipitation mainly in the northernmost portions of the CWA as we
head into Wednesday morning with the shortwave and the associated
cold front. Much of the shower activity will remain in the Nebraska
counties and areas north and east due to favorable jet dynamics. As
the shortwave moves through our region, an area of high pressure
will build off the southern California coast, tilting the upper flow
pattern northwesterly to significantly increase our CAA going into
Wednesday evening. Highs on Wednesday will reach the lower 60s,
which is about where our seasonal average is for this time of

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 143 PM MDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Main impact for this period will be frost development Wednesday and
Thursday nights, with a hard freeze expected for the Big Sandy
Creek bed Thursday night.

Wednesday evening the long wave axis will exit the Tri-State Area.
As it does so there will be a narrow corridor of lift just ahead of
it over the northeast quadrant of the area.  Soundings do not look
very supportive of rainfall developing, so would not be surprised if
the rainfall remained to the north.

Behind the trough axis clouds will clear as dry air and subsidence
move into the area.  Lows will fall into the 30s, with low to mid
30s expected over the west half of the area.  Conditions look
favorable for frost formation.  However the winds will be close to
10 MPH overnight which makes me a bit uncertain regarding the extent
of the frost formation.  Locations in the Big Sandy Creek bed may see
a hard freeze.  After collaborating with neighboring offices decided
to hold off issuing a frost advisory for now.  If lows continue the
cooler trend, a freeze warning may be needed for some of the East
Central Colorado counties.

The next opportunity for frost will be Thursday night as a good
setup for radiational cooling develops.  Dew points will be in the
mid to upper 20s over the west half of the Tri-State Area, so there
is a potential for temperatures to be cooler than the current
forecast given the light winds.  A hard freeze is expected for the
Big Sandy Creek bed.

Aside from the frost, the forecast will be quiet.  Temperatures will
warm Friday and Saturday as the ridge axis moves through.  A weak
cold front will move through Sunday.  Models are not in agreement as
to how cool highs will be on Sunday behind the front.  This will
largely depend on how far west the cooler air accompanying the
surface high pressure over the Missouri River Valley will extend.
With a dry environment in place am not expecting much beyond a few
clouds with the frontal passage.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1115 AM MDT Tue Oct 18 2016

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period at both sites.
A gradual wind shift from north to southeast will take shape as we
head into the afternoon. During the late afternoon to early
evening, these winds will continue to shift easterly and
eventually northerly during the overnight period. Winds today and
tonight will remain light generally around or less than 10 knots.




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